Shaw66

I agree completely. I'm ready to admit it. I've been optimistic for years, but never like this. I think this team could get really good, really fast.

I think LeVeon Bell is way over-hyped. I mean, the guy is obviously a very talented back, but I don't think he turns a loser into a winner. Why? 1. You don't need a great running back to win. He's a luxury. You need a great QB and a great line. Where the Jets are in those categories is certainly an open question. 2. Bell was great in Pittsburgh in his last couple of seasons because the Steelers' line was great. Bell held the ball, danced, looked, sometimes just stood still, while the offensive line held their blocks, held their blocks and eventually moved someone in the right direction to create a hole. I'd watch it and wish the Bills could block for Shady like that, because Shady is great at waiting for the hole and then bursting into. I think that unless the Jets can block like that, Bell is going to look like an ordinary human being.

Well, I always thought Favre played a bit out of control. He was like the kid in Pee Wee football who was just better than everyone else, so the coach just gave him the ball and told him to make it happen. When he got to high school, the coach was tearing his hair out over the kid, because the kid just did whatever he wanted. Favre had a bit of that. I think Allen is much more coachable. I also think it's funny that we've all let our imaginations run away with us. Allen is going into his second season, playing on a team that's made the playoffs once in 20 years, with a first-time head coach and a first-time gm. He has to play at least a couple more regular season games before he makes the Hall of Fame.

Sammy - You're right. Cam absolutely is a franchise QB. He just isn't a franchise QB I want. I don't think a team can win consistently with him. Mostly because of his attitude. But he IS a franchise QB just, as you say, Flacco is. Thanks for clarifying it. And I really like this. I mean, there's some value in making comparisons, but at the end of the day, the great ones are uniquely different from the others. Brady, Brees, Peyton - three very different guys. Jim Brown, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders, same thing. If Allen makes the mark we all hope he will, people won't be comparing him to the other greats. People will be comparing wannabees to Allen.

Fair enough. Since I wrote what I did, I've been asking myself who are the most physically gifted QBs in the history of the league. I'm concluding that Allen is WAY up on the list. There's Vick, even with your qualifications. Newton can run and has a big arm. Elway is up on my list, but he didn't run Allen or the other two. Randall Cunningham and Daunte Culpepper (it's interesting that they played for the same team within a few year of each other) were physically dominant runners and throwers. In his younger days Peyton was a big thrower but never a running threat. Maybe Steve Young has to be on the list. Steve McNair. Allen compares favorably with just about all of them. The open question about Allen is how good can he get as a field general.

Quantitate? Is he Golden Tate's brother?

This is exactly why I'm so excited about Allen. I think it's possible, and I don't think it's a stretch, that five years from now Allen could be a "thinking" quarterback on a par with Brady, Peyton, Brees and have pure physical skills that surpass all of them. He has a better arm, he moves better in the pocket, he runs better. Allen could be in the top five quarterbacks of all time. Okay, don't come screaming back at me. I'm not PREDICTING that he WILL be top 5 all time. But after watching one season, there is no question that he is one of the extraordinary physical talents ever to play QB in the NFL. He simply is. Vick was faster, for sure, and a better runner. Vick had a great arm, but he never became an excellent thrower and decision maker. None of the current or recently retired greats can throw with Allen. Physically, Allen has a very high ceiling. The question is the extent to which he will master the mental game. The good news is that we have not yet seen anything to suggest that the ceiling on is mental game is low. 2019 will give us a much better idea.

Funny that when Perry looks at the depth chart, he sees that Frank Gore is STILL ahead of him. It says something, by the way, that Perry has come to Buffalo. It probably means the Bills learned some things about him from Gore, and it means that Perry likes having Gore as a teammate.

Speed. A common theme for McBeane. Speed, speed and more speed. Maybe he can help.

I want to reply to Logic, SoTier and Ghost. I won't quote you, but I thank you each for your thoughtful posts about Allen (seems we've left Wentz by the wayside, which is fine with me). Tier, I think you miss the point about stats. What you say is correct - the bottom line is that Allen has to be better than he was last season or the Bills haven't solved their fundamental problem. Absolutely true. The point you miss is that the stats are a measure of how much he has to improve. In terms of the passer rating, he has to go from the high 60s to the mid 90s. If his passer rating goes to 85 and stalls, we have Ryan Fitzpatrick. All the best QBs are regularly in the mid 90s or above. Your point, I guess, is that the stats in and of themselves are irrelevant. That's true, but that doesn't mean they aren't useful measures of how a QB is doing. Logic - I like what you say until you get to your belief that Allen will always be a "no, no, no - YES!!!" guy. And this dovetails with what Ghost says about whether it's a tall order for Allen to change. I don't think Allen will always be a "no, no, no - YES!!!" guy. I think he will learn this year to play the short, high percentage passing game, and he will play it. In short, he will learn to make the right decisions. I think he will learn it easily, and that's why I think Ghost's pessimism is misplaced. Why do I think that? Because I believe in the process. "Oh, no," you say. "Here he goes with this process crap." Well, folks, the process is real. McBeane didn't take Allen because he has a cannon. They didn't take him because he can run. They took him because he satisfies, in spades, their culture and character models. He is an intense competitor. He is a team guy. He is willing to work at his craft 365 days a year. And he has the minimum physical requirements - he meets their MINIMUM requirements for size, speed, arm strength and intelligence. Now, in fact, he's way, way OVER the minimum in those categories, but that's not why they took him. They took him because he has the right character traits. My point is that Allen is not a stubborn "I'm doing it my way" guy. He's a guy who when the coaches tell him that the way to win is to have a high completion percentage, he says "Okay, tell me how to get a high completion percentage." I think he's already gotten the message, he's working on it, and I think we're going to see him throwing a lot more short balls this season. I don't think it's a tall order. I'll give you one example of why I think this will be easy for him. It's an example where he made, in football terms, the wrong decision, but it's an example of how much his brain is engaged when he's on the field. The play I have in mind is his completion to Kyle Williams in the flat against Miami. After the game, someone asked him if he realized the Dolphins had some coverage breakdown and our tight end was running straight up the field, uncovered. Allen said something like "there was no way on that play I was throwing the ball to anyone else but Kyle." Now, before you jump on that saying, "see, he locked onto one receiver," wait. I think it's evidence of how much Allen plays in the moment. ON THE FIELD, he was thinking about what he had to do. He was in control of himself. This is the guy who supposedly likes to bomb away deep every chance he gets; he had the perfect chance, and he ignored it, because he knew there was something more important than what he'd LIKE to do. Allen wants to win, he's a team guy, and he's smart. When his coaches tell him that the way to win is to throw passes based on how likely it is they'll be completed instead of how many yards might be gained, he'll say "okay, I can do that. I can give it to Shady in the flat all day. I can find Beasley open where's he's supposed to be. I can do that." I think we all will see that change this year. Frankly, I think the coaches will show him film of the Patriots. They will show him the decisions Brady makes - they will show him that Brady takes the deeper throws only when he has a guy, like a Hogan, who's wide open. (One exception is Brady will throw to Gronk when he's covered.) They will tell Allen that Brady WINS by doing this. Allen will say, "okay, but if my deep guy is open, can I thought it there?" His coaches will say "certainly, unless it's third down and you have a guy open short for the first down, because if both receivers are open, the short ball is easier, and the first down is more important than the bomb." Allen is smart and competitive. That stuff isn't going to be hard for him to learn and incorporate into his game.

All true. But I think his improvement is key. And the Bills definitely will go deep. They will throw all over the field. It's just that they will want to be smart about when he goes where.

That isn't correct. Bradford was the starter in Philly and was traded in September. He got the majority of work with the #1s until he was traded. Wentz was the backup until then.

Thanks. I haven't seen this anywhere, but I think that coaches are teaching their QBs that the two most important statistics in football are (1) highest possible percentage of successful plays and (2) lowest possible percentage of negative plays (lost yards or turnovers). That is, you want every play to be positive and no play to be negative. That's the objective. If anyone is actually keeping these stats, they don't value a 15-yard completion any more than a 5-yard completion. Each is a +1. A high percentage of positive plays means you keep drives alive. A low percentage of negative plays means you keep drives alive. Keeping drives alive leads to (1) scores for you and (fewer scores for the opponent). So coaches tell QBs to throw for the 15-yard or 25-yard completion only when the guy is wide open. If he isn't wide open, take the sure 5-yard completion, because the chances are much greater you'll have a positive play on the short throw than on the longer one. Sure, you'd like the yards, but keeping the ball moving positively on every play is more important than hitting a big throw. I've developed this view watching Brady. It seems like every ball he throws is to someone wide open. Now, his receivers aren't all either blanketed or wide open; some of them are sort of open, but Brady won't throw to them. He throws where he has a high probability to get the completion, regardless of the distance. He also gives up on plays and throws the ball away a lot. Why? Because negative plays are bad, and the risk of a turnover or a sack isn't worth the 15 or 20 yards you MIGHT get if you wait a second longer. He gives up and moves on. He'd rather lower his positive play percentage a bit in exchange for not risking a negative play. Now, sure, there are times when you can't follow that rule, late in the game third down, you need a score. Then you have take the risk of negative plays. But those are relatively few. That's the lesson that I think they're teaching Allen, and that's why I think we're going to see a different, and more successful, quarterback this season. I think we'll see his completion percentage go up, a lot, and his air yards go down. He'll still throw medium and deep, but he'll only throw those when they look like high percentage throws. He'll take the sure check downs more often. On top of that, Beasley is going to be his security blank, like Edelman is for Brady. Beasley's going to run precise routes and Allen will always know where to find him.

I agree with much of this, but disagree with where you come out on Allen. You're absolutely right about the short and medium range game. And when you asked people to name one franchise QB who isn't good at it, someone said Cam Newton. Cam Newton is, in my opinion, a failure. He hasn't won anything, and he accomplishes very little in the passing game. You're right about Allen running - he can run all day, but his team will win consistently only if he becomes a successful thrower. Where I disagree is where you say or imply that Allen has some major problems to solve. I don't think he does; I just think he has to change the way he plays. He wasn't bad at throwing short balls (yes, he had some misses, more than he should); he was bad at deciding to throw short. He regularly took the deep option. That's why he led the league in air yards, and by a lot. 11 yards per throw, average, 50% higher than the league average. The Bills have been clear that they want him to take the shorter, easier throws. That's not a mechanical problem to fix; that's just getting him to understand what succeeds in the league. I don't think that's a tall order, as you call it. I think it's about getting him focused. He's smart, he's coachable, he wants to win. I think we will see a big change in him this season. I also agree with you that it's about Allen, not about what's around him. I mean, I'm definitely in the camp that he needs a better offensive line, but success for players in the NFL is about the player plays, not about the guys around him.

I think your reliance on QBR is misplaced. I think you bought what ESPN was selling, which was that QBR was somehow a better all-round measure of QB performance. I don't think it is. I took a look at the 50 best QB seasons based on passer rating and on QBR. You know which names dominate BOTH lists? Brady, Manning, Rodgers. Rodgers is the only one who arguably should get a QBR boost from his running ability. Guess what? He has four of the top 50 passer rating seasons, and only three of the top 50 QBR seasons. How about the most successful running QB, Russell Wilson? He has exactly two of the top 50 QBR seasons, and he also has exactly two of the top 50 passer rating seasons. Interestingly, they are different seasons. How Cam Newton? Not on either list. So I looked at the list of best rushing seasons by quarterbacks. Guess what? The list is full of exciting names, but not winners. Russell Wilson is the one exception. The names are Vick, Cunningham, Culpepper, Newton, RGIII, Tyrod Taylor. Josh Allen has the 16th best rushing season of all time, but he still was only 25th in QBR. Running is not the name of game for winning QBs. Passing is. And the passer rating is a good measure of passing success, without cluttering it up with a lot of other stuff that doesn't change the fundamental conclusion. The best QBs rate high in both, and running doesn't have any significant impact on the QBR. On top of that, Josh Allen's future is passing, not running. It's true for every QB. I've thought for a long time that Elway is the guy Allen is most like.

Me too. I'm expecting more, but I agree with your point. I'm a big believer in the notion that it takes several years to become a good NFL QB. I know there are rookie phenoms, and there are exceptions, but there's a pretty long learning curve. As you say, Josh has to get to the mid-80s in 2019, minimum. If he doesn't, there's something wrong. But as I said earlier, the emphasis for Josh this season is going to be taking the easy throw, the throw he can complete 90% of the time instead of 50%. All it takes is discipline. He needs to understand, and I think he already does, that it's better to have a lot of small, positive plays than a few big plays. Assuming he gets that, we're going to see him checking down more, in situations where last season he looked at the check down guy and then threw downfield. And Beasley will make a big difference. Josh is going to be looking for Beasley a lot when his first option isn't there. I think Duke Williams will help a lot, too.

I have this discussion all the time. The passer rating is by far the best single data point to evaluate quarterbacks. ALL the good quarterbacks have high passer ratings, and practically no QB with a high passer rating is not a good QB. Tyrod Taylor ran just as well as Josh and had a high QBR. Doesn't matter. Russell Wilson runs well AND he has a high passer rating. That makes all the difference. I don't care how well Josh Allen runs. If he doesn't get his passer rating up by 30 points, he is NOT going to be the guy we hope. I think he will be improved, but for a better reason than the change in receivers. He will improve because of coaching and because of the experience he gained last season. In particular, his completion percentage, and thus his passer rating, will go up in 2019 because he will throw more short passes, including check downs. That's what his coaches want, and he's a coachable guy. Better receivers will help, but it's Josh's decision making that will make the real difference.

Of course, this data is cherry picked. Wentz had a completion percentage of 62.4; Allen was 52.8. That's a very important difference. The result is that their passer ratings were very different: 79.3 vs. 67.9. A passer rating in the high 70s is pretty good; many good rookies finish there, and some not so good (EJ Manuel, for example). A rookie passer rating in the high 60s is not good. Personally, I think Josh will have a completion percentage over 60% this season, because the Bills will stress to him the importance of throwing shorter passes to increase his completion percentage. But what I think and what actually happens often are two dramatically different things. Josh needs to be better to be effective.

You just spewing out stuff that has nothing to do with what I'm talking about?

You're talking about the Hallman Fame you'd like to see. Reggie Jackson was asked after he retired whether he should be in the Hall of Fame. He said, "the way it is, sure. The way it should be, no." The way the football Hall of Fame is, Gore is in. Franco Harris. Marcus Allen - one big year. How about Larry Fitzgerald? Led the league in receptions twice, yards never. Never won anything. You keeping him out, too? Second all time receiving yards.

Man, they could sell tickets to Robert Kraft's trial! Tiger Woods would buy a box for himself and his girls. What a zoo that would be!

Absent drug use, is there any reason to keep the third all-time home run hitter out of the HOF. How about the third all-time in passing yards? How about the third all-time in NBA scoring? Or assists? Accomplishments like that once in a generation and they ALWAYS get you in the Hall of Fame. Franco Harris ever had great seasons - he accumulated yards by playing a long time. Franco's in the Hall. Gore is automatic.

The guy is right.

I actually have a lot of confidence in these guys now. They'll win games, if not this season, definitely next. They are absolutely determined and focused on what they are doing. Their level of determination is through the roof. They're climbing Mount Everest, and nothing is going to stop them. One thing I found very interesting that gives us a sense of how dedicated they are. You know McDermott was a wrestler. He loves wrestling. I guess Penn State has a great wrestling program, and he took a day off to watch Penn State practice to try to figure out how they achieve and maintain excellence. The guy is absolutely driven to succeed. I think the winning starts this season. It's clear from the McD and Beane interviews that they were pissed off about the offense last season and that they are NOT going to let that happen again. Every guy on the offense, including the new comers, have already gotten that message.

And he's probably going to wish he were catching passes from Josh Allen. Oakland seems like a train wreck to me.