Shaw66

Logic - I have a good friend who is a big Jets fan. Well, he's more than a fan - he worked for years for the owner, and he was as much on the inside as it's possible to be. Now he has a different job and no connection to the Jets (except for great season tickets four rows behind the Bills bench!!!). I copied your post and sent it to him. He wrote back saying that it's exactly right, and that he's been feeling sorry for Darnold, too. He says he looks back over the years and sees the continuing dysfunction, even with the success they had getting to the playoffs some, and now he sees there's only on conclusion: the team needs new ownership. He says as much as he loves them, they just have not been good - actually, they've been bad - at getting the team building in the right direction and in the right ways. I responded by telling him how hard it was for me to say the same things about Mr. Wilson. I loved the guy, I was loyal to him to the end, but years before the end it was obvious to me that he didn't know how to hire the right people and then let them run the place. That experience, and looking at the Jets, makes me appreciate how fortunate we are to have the owners we have.

Well, so much for Whaley not knowing what he was doing. Or was it some linebacker named Watson? Anyway, I'm not into blaming people. Those years were horrible, whoever was responsible.

You think that play doesn't eat at him? I hate watching that replay. Nobody's perfect.

This relates to something I've been thinking about for a while. It seems clear to me that Beane has a system that helps him figure out how much he will spend on each player - he knows that if he spends too much here, it means he doesn't have enough to spend there, and he wants to stay in balance. And in the back of his head he's already figuring how he will adjust the system if he writes that big contract for Allen. He also has a system for managing talent. He seems to understand well that the team is a collection of players that keeps changing, that there's a flow of players through the organization, ever-changing. His job is to maintain a level of talent high enough to play well, and McDermott's job is keep adjusting to the flow. With respect to the offensive line, Beane's job is to be sure there's good talent on the oline, to be sure there's good experience on the oline, and to be sure that every season a majority of the guys on the line played together in Buffalo the season before. That is, sort of as you say, his job is that he always wants to have at least three veteran starters returning. As you say, he now has two (well, he already had two, because Dawkins and Morse were returning even without the Dawkins deal). And he has Spain. So he's got his three, and this is actually the first season where he's had three. Ford is still a question mark, but he's likely to be four. The point is, though, that it's very hard to have the same three for the long term, because between contracts and injuries, the personnel keeps changing. The days of keeping your line in tact for five years or more are long gone. So the point is to have some kind of rotation where you always have at least three good veterans coming back, ideally a fourth and a fifth coming back (like rookies and unproven veterans). Plus, I think we've seen over the past two years that Beane's model for adding players to this rotation is to add veterans from other team, like Winters, Boehm and Williams, plus the guys he added last year) and to sprinkle in an occasional high pick (Ford) and promising but unproven youngsters (Bates). I think that Beane's offensive line recipe looks something like that. As I said, this is the first season he's giving McDermott all of the ingredients. As I think about it, I think that's one of the reasons that they didn't feel a need to bolster the offensive line in the draft or to make a big splash in free agency at those positions. They now have their rotation in place, and all that's necessary is annual maintenance to replace guys as they get old, get injured, or don't develop. And if that's the right way to look at it, then I think it's a good deal for both sides. Dawkins could legitimately have held out 8th money, and the Bills would have liked getting away with paying 16th money, and both decided it was in their interests not to squeeze the other.

Responding to both Gunner and Thurm here. Gunner, I think you actually prove Thurm's point a bit. There is no established methodology for ranking players by compensation. You can compare new deals, which is what Gunner is doing, or you can compare average comp going forward from here, which is what Thurm is doing, and you get different numbers. Exact placement on some theoretical list isn't important, it isn't precise. What I think almost everyone seems to agree on is that Dawkins isn't a top three tackle and he didn't get top three money. My big fear in free agency is that a really good position player squeezes top three or top one money out of management, because the player almost never turns out to be worth it., and that contract hurts the team's ability to get other talent. My fear on the other side is really good player leaves because someone else gives him top three money, and the Bills have a hold. What we know about Dawkins is that he's good and could be better and the Bills didn't drop top three money on him, so I'm happy. As for Morse, I had the same sense of his 2019 as Gunner. By the end of the year I saw him as a great technician, in the sense that he seemed to execute really well - he was in position, balanced, aware. He didn't seem to dominate physically the way a top offensive lineman does. I think, however, that that kind of technical execution excellence makes a center really valuable. The line operates very much as a unit, and the center leads the unit. What the rest of the unit sees in Morse is a guy who is going to get there for the double team every time he's supposed to get there, he's going to be seven yards downfield every time he's supposed to be there, he's going to make the right line calls every time. That is, I think Morse's consistency makes him very valuable, and may make him top 5 in a different sense. Not top 5 as a one on one physical presence, but he may bery well be top five in a unit leadership sense.

Apparently 5th or 6th, depending on how you slice it. I don't think the guy is 5th or 6th best offensive tackle in the league, but as time goes by and other guys sign, he'll probably slip to 8th or 10th, unless COVID screws up the cap too badly. Paying him as the 8th or 10th best tackle seems to me to be right on the money. And if the guy continues to improve, he'll get about three years and the Bills will renegotiate to move him up. Seems to me like this contract is right about where it ought to be. It's becoming a habit for Beane to be on target and proactive. It all seems too sane, compared to decades of craziness.

Now I'm going off track, but I was struck by this, because I've had the same sense. It seems like every time I see the Colts mentioned somewhere, it comes with more praise than I think makes sense. I do have one possible explanation for this phenomenon. If the Colts actually deserve this optimism about them, I think it may be deserved for one reason: Frank Reich. From what I've seen and heard, which isn't a lot, Reich seems to be a positive, detailed oriented process guy much like McDermott. The bottom line for the "process" is that the whole package is greater than the sum of its parts. If the Colts turn out to be really good this season, it won't be because they have great talent. It will be because they have good talent, everyone knows their job, and they play their hearts out. Like the Bills.

Man, if they all cancel, or all but the SEC, the 2021 draft is going to be a mess. The pros won't have any film to review, so they'll have to go with film from the prior year. Of course, all the players will still have their eligibility, so rising juniors still won't be able to come out (unless some one year exception is made), and rising seniors who chose this year not to come out will now have to consider coming out again. Essentially it will mean that 2021 draft choices will be worth less than usual, because the pool of players is going to be smaller, and therefore have less talent. What a mess.

Separation. Is one of my pet peeves. Practically no #2 gets separation on his own. They get separation on scheme and route running. If Rober Woods could get separation consistently he would be a number 1. He is a route runner with hands. So I agree with your two most important traits.

Both.

Good bet. I hope it isn't Diggs! Man, it's all so competitive. Absolute dogfights for a job. Talk about managing the roster. Receivers added since January 1, 2019: Beasley, Brown, Knox, Kroft, Williams, Diggs, Hodgins, and Davis.

Yeah, Diggs. Yes, you plan for subs, but at some point it's next man up. And carrying McKenzie to run the ball maybe 15 times a year just in case Diggs goes down is a pretty limited use of a roster spot. And it's enhanced only a little bit if you're all so carrying him to return punts in case Roberts goes down. Carrying a guy for those purposes is a luxury, especially because Roberts can back up Diggs in the jet sweep department, and Hyde and others can back up Roberts on the punts. In other words, although McKenzie is something of a gadget player, there's nothing that he does that is so special or so valuable that gives him an advantage. I think he's more a young guy who makes himself as useful as he can while you see if he develops. But we've seen him for a couple of years now, and he doesn't give much evidence that he's developing into a particularly useful player. Now, that's my take. McDermott may think that his versatility is itself so useful that he wants to keep him. And I also don't know how much they value his special teams contribution. What I do know is that whenever I see him on the field, I feel like the Bills are weaker. Particularly how he fields punts.

I think he catches the ball against his body most of time and he rarely makes tough catches. They will put Doggs in motion. They won't need McKenzie in that role.

Right. I will be VERY surprised if Robert's doesn't make it. I dont think McKenzie makes it. He just isn't an NFL receiver, and Diggs (and Roberts) will take his jet sweep touches. McKenzie isnt a major contributor, a leader or a guy with much upside, so he is at risk. Similar things can be said about Duke, which is why he is at risk, too. So I think there's an open spot for one more. This is great. There are plenty. One reason we believe in those guys is that Jason Peter's was one, too. A project with a back story.

I think that's probably correct, although I'm not awarding a roster spot to any rookie beyond round 3. If Williams is clearly better than Davis in training camp, then the coaches may very well be thinking that Williams is in the top five and Davis is looking to win one of two spots. That's especially true if Williams is better in camp and Davis shows some special teams promise. The addition of Diggs makes McKenzie somewhat more expendable, because he's never shown great stuff as a receiver, except the jet sweep. With Diggs and Roberts, they have that covered. Foster needs to emerge big time or prove that he's so important to the special teams that they can't let him go. Given all this competition, Hodgins almost certainly is on the outside looking in. So there's clearly a route for Duke, but like you, if I had to bet, I'd say he probably is looking for a job in September. (And I wouldn't be surprised if he finds one.)

Exactly. Much tougher competition for one fewer spot than last season. Still, I won't be surprised if he makes the team. The big question is will he be noticeably better than last season (in other words, can he build on a rookie season where he showed he at least can play with guys in this league)?

Right. In particular, there's almost always tough competition at the backup receiver spot. Diggs' arrival makes the competition that much tougher. Think of it this way: There's really only one spot for Williams to compete for, and that's the #4 receiver slot. Is he going to be the guy who gets on the field in double wide or empty backfield sets? If he isn't that guy, then he needs to be a special teamer or a developmental player who has showed promise. Developmental player was his role last season; tough for him to be in that role again this year.

If I had to bet, I'd be with you. He didn't make the progress I expected last season. But I didn't say I expected he'd make the roster. I said I expect he will be better than last year, and I said that given the realities of the 2020 season, a guy with experience seems to have an additional edge. I said I wouldn't count him out yet.

I love Duke's story, so I've been a Duke fan. But putting that aside, I think what you say is short-sighted. I think "he is what he is" is wrong. He was, essentially, a rookie last season. Yeah, he'd been in an NFL camp once before, and yeah he played in Canada, but Canadian football is more like glorified college ball, and Duke didn't have much of a college career. So he was like a rookie, or rookie+ last season. Look for a minute at all of Dawson Knox's ugly moments last season. That's what rookies play like. Knox saw more time than Duke because he had no competition at TE, so he had more opportunities to make plays and drop passes. We're all excited about what we think will be natural improvement for Knox, and I think we'll see Duke get better, also. So to say Duke is what he is isn't correct. He will be better this season than he was last season. Now, of course, he needs to be much better, because Diggs is taking one of the receiver slots, Roberts is more or less a lock, so there are two or maybe three slots left. One or more of those slots requires a serious special teams contribution, and Duke hasn't shown that he can be that guy. But he has one big thing going for him, and that is that his biggest competition should come from the rookies, and the rookies will have very limited opportunity to prove themselves this month. At least one of them has to be a real stand out, because Duke will not go quietly, and because in this season it's a big risk to go with unproven (rookie) talent. There's a good chance there will be more injuries than usual, and there's also the chance of losing guys to COVID-19. Coaches are going to want reserves they know can count on, and rookies beyond the third round usually can't be counted on. If Duke shows the natural improvement I expect he will, he will send a message to McDermott that says he can be counted on. Plus, McDermott wants guys with Duke's intensity and competitiveness. Any receiver fighting for a backup role will have to bring it at the same level or more. The rookies have one month of camp to prove they have it. I think it's way too early to count Duke out. Ordinary spring and summer, maybe. This summer, it's different.

This is a wise comment. It is EXACTLY what we kept hearing about Dawkins, and about Glenn, too. There are a couple of points about this. One is that all the reports are and have been for five years or more that college offensive linemen are unprepared for pro football. They are asked only to do a few very simple things, most important of which is to hold their blocks for no more than about 1.5 seconds. Why? Because the QBs are taught to make one read and either throw it or run for your life. The other is that most of us, including me, to think that that if the Bills don't have a Hall of Famer at some position, he has to be replaced. In some cases, if the guy isn't a Hall of Famer, he just needs to go. But if he's a tackle and he's not a Hall of Famer, he has to move to guard, which is somehow a less demanding position. It's particularly a problem at tackle, because just about all of us remember Jason Peters, so he's the standard. If the guy isn't Jason Peters, he isn't good enough. Finally, people keep underestimating how important it is for the offensive line to operate as a team. That's more so than any other position group. So the best guy for an offensive line position is not necessarily the most talented guy. If he doesn't operate well within the team, he isn't useful. The opposite extreme is the wideouts, who have team camaraderie and all that, but what they do on the field is pretty much independent of what the other guy is doing. So our view of how good an offensive lineman is, speaking for myself and I think for most people posting here, much too narrow. I have very little understanding of how well Dawkins is functioning as part of that unit, and that is perhaps the most important question from a coach's point of view. What about Winters? Well, I have the same reactions as many of you: Injuries are a concern, successful starting experience is a big plus, talent level seems high, Morse praise says something positive. Beane continues to get high marks upgrading talent across the lineup. Look at all the veteran additions across the defense. Two nice veteran additions on the O line. Diggs. Excellent personnel management, so far as I can tell. As a GM, if you have tough choices to make, it means you're doing well. Remember all the drought years, when the Bills would sign a free agent and the discussion was about which current dog should be cut. In those days, free agent signings didn't create tough choices.

Yeah. I'm experiencing no real buildup to the season. I feel like "please start, please start, please start. Yay! We're starting! Who are these guys?"

For me, it feels like I won't get excited until final cuts.

I'm glad I don't read what you read.

Not Eligible

Two things about that. First, Beane knows how he wants to manage the roster. He sees the same kind of potential need you do. He just doesn't come here and explain the moves to us. Second, I dont remember the examples, but this isnt the first time he has let a vet go early so he has a better shot at catching on with another team. I think Beane cultivates a reputation for being fair to his players.