Shaw66

Fair enough. Wrong title. But I think I'm correct his trajectory. He may even win a Super Bowl, but he is not going to be an elite QB.

I like the Football Outsiders rating system, in the second half of the season. They need data for their system to work, and in the beginning of the season, they don't have data. Their written analysis, however, is pretty bad. They are so data driven that they look at nothing but the rear view mirror. Their analysis of where teams are today is not based on actual observation of the team and how it's playing.

Well, I agree with you, but I also understand the hype. He's a spectacular runner, and he throws well, at least the passes he throws. And he's a great competitor. I just don't see how that style wins, long-term. It's too one dimensional.

All in due time, my son. He's learning week by week, season by season. Once he finds Beas, Brown, and Diggs running free a few times, the blitzing will stop, because they're going to turn it upfield and gash the defense. Allen probably won't do it consistently this season - he's still learning. But in a year or two, he's going to be deadly managing a game.

That's kind of you. I'll see I can get it.

Who are the MTC guys?

You're missing the point. Sure, Jackson may light up a bunch of teams again this year. The problem isn't that he isn't talented. The problem is that the offense is one-dimensional, and first the good defenses and eventually all the defenses will learn to stop it, just like KC did last night. What I'm saying is that Jackson is not a long-term premier QB, at least not until he learns to play like Brees and Wilson, small guys who play from the pocket. It was obvious last night that Jackson can't play from the pocket anything like a top QB.

First, I gotta say it's pretty interesting that I post a random though about Jackson in the morning, go away, and when I come back there are 12 pages of comments. Love it. Gunner, I agree that if Jackson had a Diggs or other serious #1, he'd be better off, and I agree (as I've said) that he has to learn to be a pocket passer. He didn't look like one last night. But I think the problem is bigger than that. I think if you decide that your offense is going to feature Jackson's running ability, if you're going to try to win by having him rush for 1000 yards a season, then you necessarily have to sacrifice the deep passing game. If you're going to have a run-oriented offense, especially with your QB as a feature back, you need wideouts dedicated to blocking. They aren't useful blocking 30 yards downfield; you have to keep them near the line of scrimmage. I think when you do that to your offense, you're telling the defense they need to play two deep safeties, because no one's going to be running around back there. The defense packs the shallow and mid range zones with a single high free safety, and the offense fins itself trying to beat 10 defenders all within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage. The easy passing option for a running QB is when he rolls out. But when he rolls out, he signals the defense that it only has to defend half the field. The a big part of the reason Bills fans have been saying Josh needed options was that the Bills needed to spread the defense and make the decision making easier. As I said, KC's offense is the exact opposite of Baltimore's, and the difference was obvious. Mahomes had a lot of easy throws to make, 15-20 yards downfiield to guys wide open. We s saw very little of that from Jackson, and we saw very little of it when the Ravens played the Bills last year. The attack has to come from the pocket.

Very interesting question about Shady. Never occurred to me, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Josh got some advice from Shady.

Hah! I didn't say Jackson is a bad athlete or wont ever play another down. I said you cant have a consistently offense unless you have a qb who can run a full scale NFL passing offense from the pocket. Jackson cant do it and is way behind Allen learning it. And even if Jackson can learn it, as long as they try to feature the running qb, they cant send receivers deep. It was completely obvious watching those two offenses.

The spin move was a reminder of what an extraordinary athlete Allen is. Running backs practice that move and make it part of their repertoire. When does Allen practice that? Sometime, I guess, but that isn't his job. I don't recall that we've seen it before. What was particularly good about it was that it was just what was needed in that instant to avoid the tackle and pick up a couple extra yards for the first town. Allen wasn't going to run away from the guy, but he had to avoid a direct hit to get the first down. In the moment Allen could see it and execute it. Quite remarkable.

I've said since the beginning of the year that I'm not buying the Lamar Jackson hype, and I'm not buying the Kyler Murray hype, either. I know they are really special athletes, and they're a couple of the best running backs in the league, but they limit their offenses. The problem with Jackson is related to something McDermott (and plenty of other coaches) say all the time: You have to force the opponent to defend the entire field - sideline to sideline and line of scrimmage to the goal line. The reason is simple: If you can threaten to strike anyplace on the field, the defense has to spread out to defend all those places. When the defense spreads out, they create holes for the offense to attack. You could see the problem almost immediately last night. One on side of the ball was a team, the Chiefs, that is perhaps the best in the league at attacking the whole field. They will hurt you anyplace you leave unprotected. The Ravens started out playing the game no more than 30 yards downfield, and as the game progress, they didn't even threaten that deep. The defense tightened and tightened. Sure, Jackson kept getting himself some nice runs here and there, but they essentially give up the ability to get 100-200 passing downfield to get an extra 50 or 100 out of Jackson. That's a bad trade. The other thing that was apparent is that to be a premier QB, you MUST be able to stand in the pocket and direct the attack. You can't run an effective, all-over-the-field passing attack from outside the hash marks. Why? Because you can't threaten deep passes down the right side if your QB is standing outside the left hashmark. (Well, you can if your QB is Josh Allen, but that's something else.) Your QB has to be able to stand in, see the entire field, make decisions, and then make throws. Jackson couldn't do that last night. If he's going to make it, he has a lot of work to do as a pocket passer. But even that may not be enough, because if you're going to feature your QB running the ball, you need your receiver to stay shallow to block for him. So in your regular offense, your receivers aren't running deep routes, so the deep threat isn't there. It was all pretty obvious watching last night. Mahomes stands in the pocket, makes decisions and makes throws. Jackson doesn't. Jackson will not be a premier QB if he doesn't learn to play that traditional QB game. He's way, way behind Josh Allen in developing those skills. Allen plays much more like Mahomes than like Jackson. McBeane have always said he was going to be a pocket passer. They've been working on making him one since he arrived in Buffalo. Baltimore went down the other road, building an offense that plays to Jackson's strengths, but that is an offense that by definition is limited. I think they're wasting their time. Jackson will hurt some teams sometimes, he'll force your defense to play a different style than their used to, but at the end of the season, Baltimore's offense will limit their ability to win big games. Finally, to bring it back to Allen and the Bills, Mahomes wasn't doing anything last night that Allen doesn't do. Allen has the better arm, clearly, Mahomes is more poised and more able to attack weaknesses consistently - that's clear too. What's so encouraging is that Allen can learn to be a great field general, but good as Mahomes arm is, he can't learn to throw like Josh. Bills are heading down the right road.

Mike Pereira said that if your illegal contact continues until the ball is in the air, it becomes pass interference. Thats what happened. When Davis made his cut, the ball was in the air. The contact continued until the cut. Davis made the play. He forced the db into a position where he had to disengage. But if he did that, the catch would have been no contest. Davis is a winner.

Yeah, right. Could write a book about that game. I thought the story of the game was how the team stood up to the challenge. It was Allen and the offense that stood up. Everyone did their job, the offense made the difference.

Thats a good point. Interesting to see how they will do with otrrer injuries that will come. Survived Milano and Edmunds just okay.

She's a little weak in the running game.

Wait until Allen gets good!

You won't be saying this in November and December. The defense will be fine then, and Hyde will be a key.

Yes, I do. He already made one last week. And the catch on the sideline yesterday was not unlike the one Duke dropped in the playoffs.

I think I post someplace else about this comment. Brett Favre wishes he had Josh's physical talent. Brett had to muscle up, get his whole body into it to throw those what-are-you-thinking lightning bolts. Josh just looks, things maybe he'll give it a shot and - BOOM! - the ball's shot out of a cannon. I know, you're talking about the gunslinger, I'm-going-in-guns-blazing-and-I'm-coming-out-alive mentality - Clint Eastwood in Unforgiven, and more and more, we're seeing that's who Josh is. But he's so much more.

His catch up the left sideline was amazing. Tough angle to turn on the ball, and yet the instant the ball hit his hands, it stopped moving. Instantly. That's a special skill. Davis looks like the guy we hoped Duke would be.

Actually, I think it was Total Recall.

Another excellent point.

Obviously, we're all getting ahead of ourselves, but what you say is correct. Allen is threatening the game - he's showing people that he can play QB at a level no one has ever seen. As for the Favre comparison, yes, he has the attitude and moxie that Favre had. But ask Favre, drunk or sober, about Allen, and I'm sure he'd say, "Man, I wish I had that arm and body." Allen can do stuff that Favre could only dream about.

I think that's exactly right. Everything about the replay confirmed that Kroft caught it first and then it became a shared possession. The rule is completely clear about the outcome in that situation. However, simply because the call on the field was interception (and I'm completely baffled how anyone in real time thought that was interception), the boys in New York just said "well, I can't prove it wasn't an interception on the replay, so the play will stand." As I said, why the NFL would think that's a good way to review calls, I don't know.