Rochesterfan

I think Carolina now feels they have a real shot at Fields - something they did not feel a few weeks ago. I think Fields to Carolina. NE - I think has a shot at Mac Jones.

There is just no way he does anything close to that. McD as a coach limits significantly the rookies because the NFL season is longer and more intense. He has tended to give them very little responsibility until week 5 or 6 - so the season is closer to the college season. With RBs in particular- the expectation that he can run correct routes, but more importantly pick up blitzes when needed - especially in play action scenarios is crucial and ETN is a bad, bad blocker. I would expect very limited play out of ETN even if drafted because they will not trust him in the backfield. He will see some time spread out, but I don’t think they will use him as much as people think based upon their history.

I don’t really trust Allbright to know much of anything going on. He claims to have been right about the last several Bills drafts, but then had to clarify it was position because our 1st pick last year he mocked to NE about 3/4 of a round earlier. He also was the guy that said the Brown trade was done before that was done and when it was still preliminary. I think he has a “source” and the Bills only feed him the crap they want out. He was on the Josh Allen pick, but so were a bunch of other guys as draft day approached because it became more widely known Mayfield was going to Cleveland, and therefore Darnold to the JETS and that left the Bills needing a QB and many “insiders” had Allen over Rosen - while fans had Rosen over Allen. If the board played out the way he has it - I see no way Beane passes on Newsome - none - that is the most slam dunk pick he could have. You want CB and speed and he has it in spades - as opposed to a fast, but not elite speed RB. I don’t think it is close.

My biggest issue with all of this is you are trading a two time ProBowler that struggles at Mike for basically an unknown guy in a similar mold that sounds like he will struggle at the Mike. Are we getting significantly better? Are we going to go through the growing pains of a new guy in the middle? I think you have the target right - I just think Edmunds is here for this year - unless they can trade up and pick up a replacement veteran MLB that has some scheme familiarity. I would love to see this team roll Milano, JOK, and Edmunds out at LB and move them around for pressure and coverage - I am just not sure the DC is big on using a pressure package - they tend to run a more passive and less aggressive scheme to keep plays in front. Therefore - I still see lots of nickel packages and then you don’t benefit from 3 LBs that are similar.

Matt Patricia and Heavy are synonymous. 😂

I agree - I myself think Fields is the best QB after Lawerence, but there are warts. I don’t get Wilson love in NY - I just think that is a bad fit. A young Mormon kid from Utah trying to play in that spot light with the entire franchise dying for a QB - I think he would fit better with a team with more talent and less venom. I think that was a great spot for Fields - Ohio State the pressure and the talent - I think that could of been a nice match. I Love Lance, but he needs to go to a team with some quality QB depth and some stability to give him a chance to grow and develop. I think a team like ATL with a new staff and Ryan in place would be ideal. Mac Jones throws me - as I see a guy that won, but was on the best and most talented team by far. I see leadership, but when you have multiple top 10 WRs - I am not sure how exactly to process his play. I would be hesitant to draft him as a savior, but could see a talented team like SF going for it. So yes I think teams are overthinking it on Fields, but as Gunner said - scheme fit and style will make a difference for these guys.

The only thing I will disagree with is picking up the 5th year option. Beane has a value for MLB in his head and if the 12+ million is over that (as I suspect it is because that is more than I would want to pay) - then even if Beane is optimistic on Edmunds - he would not sign his option and would just work to re-sign him - similar to Milano. The evidence would be if they let Edmunds walk to sign a deal next year for significantly below market value. That would show they did not want him at any cost. If they work to re-sign him at an AAV of 10 million or so - where I suspect they have him slotted - it would be a sign they wanted him back, but not at all costs. We have seen this GM as part of a FO in Carolina do that exact thing to CBs and they did it to Phillips and Lawson last year. They have a price point and even if they want you back - they work hard to keep players in the slotted range they have set aside.

Totally agree - it also was the way the board looked. He talked about the Bills liking Allen and Darnold and that was correct, but many people started to connect those dots once the Jets moved to 3. He did not throw the Rosen or Jackson model up there - he was adamant that it was Allen - but then he also pushed the Antonio Brown trade as done when it wasn’t and he ended up wrong about that also.

Allbright stinks, but when he throws enough crap at the wall some of it sticks. I think he has linked the Bills to about 35 different prospects - one is bound to be right. He has not been accurate with anything Bills related and just talks a big game with nothing to back it up.

Totally Agree - my feelings on the JA opinion deal is that he was the perfect example of Analytics versus Scouting. The traditional scouting side loved his arm, legs, mind, and the offense he came from. They looked at him as unmolded clay that could be shaped into a franchise QB with a little patience. The analytics guys put him in their made up formulas and everything points to a draft bust. The analytics guys over the last few years had been making major inroads into the sport and Josh became that flash point. If he succeeds it shows there are major analytics flaws in their data models that traditional scouting can overcome and if he fails it was another dagger in the heart of traditional scouts. Since the majority of opinion writers are not traditional scouts and do not have traditional access to the players - they rely on the analytics and therefore mostly fall on that side and therefore Josh must fail. The old school scouts and guys like Mel Kiper were much more positive because they they have seen these players succeed and he fits the perfect success model that scouts drool over. Josh Allen just became the analytics guys worst nightmare because not only is he an outlier, but he is a huge outlier suggesting their data and models need correction. This came on the huge analytics failure in the Cleveland front office and I think was just to much for guys like Sam Monsoon and others at PFF and other analytics firms - Rather than accepting that models needed further enhancements- it was easier to push the bust narrative and continue to hope for failure and to downplay every positive thing he does.

The problem I see with most football related advanced metrics - say QBR, QBASE, SB nations, the various metrics in the original article, etc. - is that they model the analytics on the results to try and make things fit and then when things fit they assume it is correct. They have not created a valid model and then plugged numbers in because every player is different and unique. Stating that a QBs ceiling in the pros is lower than his college stats is just about the dumbest thing someone can say. Yes for many QBs (especially on good college teams) they never develop, but for every Ryan Mallet - there is a Tom Brady, a Brett Farve, an Aaron Rodgers, a Patrick Mahomes, and yes a Josh Allen. You can tell how bad some of their info is when a guy like college Matt Ryan is on par and they skip him to focus on Josh McCown. The NFL scouts knew he had talent and the analytics dweebs used every computation to say how bad he was - especially compared to Baker, Darnold, Rosen, and even Rudolph. They still have no idea what to make of him because each year he takes their well laid “Math” and destroys it and when things don’t fit the analytics guys just skip him and go on to the next guy.

If they do it with their 1st rd pick or move up - I will laugh and laugh at their wasted picks. Just as if we move up - I would be ticked. No value at all to that position.

It has got to be a smokescreen for a DE or CB. No way they waste extra picks on a RB. Just does not make sense. Of course it is McShay - so it is just about guaranteed to be wrong.

Doesn’t really change much for me - of all the LBs drafted that were available to the Bills (so excluding Chubb and Smith) - Edmunds is beat by Leonard and maybe Warner - it is not like he is a the 10th or 12th best LB from that draft. We selected Edmunds as the 3rd LB and after 3 years he is still easily top 5 out of his draft class and top 3 at his position. Even as good as a guy like Smith has been being drafted 8 picks higher - Edmunds has more ProBowls, more passes defended, more forced fumbles, and nearly matches him in tackles. Guys like Chubb and Leonard are more outside guys so some different stats, but both are probably better in their position. The other inside guy in Warner has more tackles, but less sacks, less passes defended, and the same number of INTs. So for me - you have 3 quality inside LBs from that draft in Edmunds, Smith, and Warner and the numbers between all 3 are close. I also think each of those 3 guys are fits for the teams that got them. So again - I am not sure what to expect as we drafted him to do exactly what he has been doing and for the role we have there was one LB in Warner drafted after him that is better.

Do teams really have to worry about him “going the distance” though? Honestly. Etienne is mid 4.4 speed - that is not blazing and certainly not faster than a bunch of NFL LBs and DBs. He would be faster than the current Draft pick backs we have, but he does not strike me as a take it to the house guy in the NFL. I see a take it to the house guy with a forty time below 4.4 and hopefully 4.35 and lower. Elite level speed. Etienne has the best combo of speed and play in the upcoming draft, but I just think he will be an average RB for some team. I don’t think he is as good at Harris in the passing game or the running game, and he has had way to many touches and fumbles over the last couple of years. I would rather draft a late round or UDFA speed back than Etienne myself.

The only question I have is when you say: “He hasn’t lived up to his draft status” - what exactly pushes that. As a late 1st round pick - he has been voted outright to 1 ProBowl and was an alternate to another in 3 years. He is the caller of the defense and plays on over 90% of the snaps (among the top on the team). He was an integral part of 2018 and 2019 defenses that were top 5 and excellent against the pass. What exactly do we expect from a draft pick to live up to his position. If people want to say MLB is not a premier position and is not worthy of a huge salary - I can get behind that, but if I draft a guy in the 1st round and in his first 3 years he goes to 2 ProBowls and the defense is Top 5 twice and top 10 in a weird year where he and his LB mate were both injured - I am ecstatic with what he has given me. I have no issues with the Bills looking to draft a LB and maybe having to trade or move on from Edmunds after the season to maintain salary integrity, but it is position based not that he has not lived up to his draft spot. Everyone complained and wanted Vander Esch after the early part of year 1, but Edmunds has been shown to be a better choice and is a top AFC LB year after year.

I don’t know, but you go back and watch Motor in college and he was near the top in missed and broken tackles. So my guess is yes - in college he probably could of hit those holes and run through college level arm tackles. I don’t know that he gets all the yards, but I think he powers on through some of it.

You do realize CEH was no better than an undrafted RB they had on the roster. They could of gotten the same production from a running back taken anywhere in the draft. He also put up similar YPC and less yards per reception than Singletary and the same TDs as Moss - both of whom did it in shared time. I think CEH is the exact reason you do not draft a RB high. He was no more productive than our 3rd round pair and an undrafted guy on their team.

Unfortunately - the new TV contract money will not be seen until 2023 and even with fans returning to the stadium and the 17th game - the salary cap is not expected to rise significantly because they have nearly 30 million per team in lost revenue from last season to make up. The salary cap may not rise at all or only go up 8-10 million depending on how quickly the owners want to recoup the lost money. It will also have an impact on 2023, but the new TV deals will counter that.

I agree with a bunch of this, but I don’t blame the NFL - the players in KC complained and that caused the staff to put in the request. This is 100% on a few stupid players that want to go back to their college days.

I don’t disagree, but when they did have Tre on TEs last year and he struggled. Tre is not quite physical enough or big enough to cover TEs super effectively. Kelce is able to box out Tre and also go up for catches above him. Cool enjoy.

I’m not angry and I don’t ignore people. You stated you wanted to know about JOK and got a bunch of responses about David and people disagreeing with you - I am trying to explain why I have responded. I am responding to your title and then posts made within - sorry we disagree, but it is a reasonable response to what has been posted based upon your title and the previous discussion.

If you really wanted to know just about JOK - change the stupid name of you thread to what do you think of JOK and is he worth a trade up - take David right out of the title. Your title is what brings up David and what people are reacting to because it implies that TB did a better job at covering TEs than the Bills did. This is where everything goes wrong. The fact that TB was overall one of the worst teams at covering TEs in 2020 right near the bottom of the league with the Bills is a huge part of the issue. Issue 2 is that the 2018 and 2019 version of the Bills were highly effective using Edmunds and Milano at covering TEs - to the point that in 2018 they didn’t give up a TD and were tops in the league. So what we know is the Bills have been effective and struggled badly last year, but TB was just as bad at covering TEs to the point that they gave up more TDs in the regular season than the Bills did. So overall the issues is that you title the thread to compare JOK to David and then get mad when people point out facts about how poor the TB coverage was on TEs throughout the year - it isn’t necessarily a knock on David specifically - which is how Devin White got involved. You got the discussion you got because of that. It is obvious by the fact that the board choose JOK in the mock that people like him and think he would be a great addition. It is also equally obvious that many people think the 2 3rd round picks is way to expensive for him.

Look - I am sorry @NewEra but you have been getting owned and your responses have been all over the place. You tell us all how great David is in coverage and how bad Edmunds and Milano are, but the numbers show overall they LBs were targeted nearly evenly, gave up an average of 0.3 more catches to TEs per game or 4 more catches by TEs over the course of a season. the Bills gave up 2 yards per game more than the Bucs on average per game and the Bills gave up 1 TD less to the TE than the Bucs did during the regular season. Did Edmunds struggle this year - Yes! Is David a better coverage LB - Yes! Were the Bills duo of Edmunds and Milano part of the 2018 and 2019 defenses that were tops against TEs and in 2018 did not give up a TD to a TE - Yes! They have coverage ability as has been shown - they also both struggled in a very weird year. Your response that you watched it and know - is only an opinion. What I know is overall neither team did a good job of covering TEs. For Tampa a lot of the struggle was Devin White - he is great around the line, but the numbers back up he struggled in the passing game. Tampa also got better as the DLine started putting pressure on QBs - that in turn helps immensely with coverage. Watching Clips - you can see Edmunds (even in the AFCCG drop into his spot - if the pressure that Tampa had was happening - Kelce is covered, but Mahomes (and Rivers before him) had time - they freeze the LB with their eyes and allow the TE to find open space for catches. If Edmunds tries to follow the TE - it opens a spot up for a WR in his vacated area. The same thing happened to David in the Super Bowl. Plus go back and watch the Super Bowl - Kelce’s numbers were down, but he had at least 3 big time drops where he was open with David no place around him. The difference was the pressure turned Mahomes perfect throws into a throw that was a bit off and Kelce was a bit off all game. If he makes those “Knox” style drops as catches his numbers in the Super Bowl are closer to the AFCCG (maybe better in the end) - he didn’t make them - not because of David, but because of the pressure on Mahomes. I will say once again - If JOK is there at 30 or you have to jump to 27-28 with a 5th rd pick - I am happy with that. I am not giving up 2 additional 3rd round picks for him. I also think you over value what he would bring - the Bills play 90% nickel and I am not sure adding JOK changes that significantly. They play nickel because they do not want to get beat deep and are less afraid of teams running the ball than throwing it over the top. They invite teams to try and drive the ball methodically down the field. I get that you want them to change up and become a different defensive team, but I think McD is happy with that style and has been successful over his career with that defense. I could see JOK allowing more standard 4-3 alignments in 2022, but as a rookie I think he would be very limited to spot duty as is typical of how the team works rookies in.

I didn’t say we did fine - I said we were just as good as TB who you are comparing us to. Similar completion percentage, similar catches per game, similar TDs, and similar yards per game.