Rochesterfan

I will say 2 things: 1) NBA comparison is crazy because they don’t have a true cap. You can basically spend whatever you want and just pay more into the pool. So where does 50 million come from - owners willing to overspend to make their team relevant. A team like Brooklyn with Durant is not staying under the CAP - they are basically willing to go way beyond the cap for a few years to try and win. 2.) We know in the NFL based upon the agreement that the Cap next year is only going to rise a few million and that is assuming all games go off and all fans are back. I am not convinced that will be the case come the fall. Then the 2023 CAP will be based upon the 2022 money - meaning the 2023 CAP is not skyrocketing - it will be 2024 when the CAP see the biggest jump. They can slot him in, but it just became harder and much less likely. The numbers for off ball LBs were going up - that was clear and everyone knew Darius was going to set a new standard - the fear was how high does it push the lesser players and that contract probably pushes guys like Edmunds - not Elite, but top 5-10 with multiple ProBowls - up 5 - 6 million on AAV over the next couple of seasons. For me - If it could of been done first - I would have done it at 12-13 and it would seem a bargain. Now I am waiting - not to see how he plays, but you need to get other players to slot into 13-14 AAV to get him back down to that range. Isn’t 4 yr 80 million actually higher that 5 yr 99.95 million. I think you need to adjust you take slightly. I was thinking before this deal 4 year 48 - 50 million would have been my target. Sorry saw @NoSaint beat me to it.

Nope - and this was why in the Who’s next thread - I said he needed to be next - before this contract came out. Mike from SPOTRAC mentioned that before Darius signs - you have a shot at Edmunds at 12-13 million AAV, but if Darius gets 20+ million as he thought - Edmunds immediately jumps to 17-18 million AAV and probably out of the prices range they can slot in.

I totally agree and think you can take it a step further. He has not just improved season over season - if you break down the seasons into two 8 game stretches - he has improved each stretch within a season. Year 1 before the injury - he made some plays, but was wildly inconsistent - which is exactly what you expect for a super raw rookie on a crap team. Year 1 after the injury - suddenly he comes back and looks different - things slowed down for him - he was still inconsistent, but now he was more calculated in his approach and where he was going. He improved because he suddenly started to understand and translate film and concepts into game play. Year 2 early season - he worked hard in the off season and came back and was better than down the stretch year 1 - more consistent plays - hitting guys all over the field - making throws before breaks - anticipation throws. The talent was much better and he had grown into a more polished passer. Year 2 late season - you saw what 2020 became the last 8 games of 2019 - he started having answers. He was making reads quickly and making good decisions and he was letting the talent make plays. He still got amped at times, but he started making touch throws, and weird arm angle throws - just anything he needed to keep moving and his accuracy was climbing as he adjusted. Year 3 early - you could see the change starting game 1 with a 300 yard performance and complete control and it rolled week after week. There were still a few mistakes with the ball - like the Rams game, but his control was better. Year 3 late - you saw a guy in complete control - he had guys open and knew what read and where to go. After Arizona - he literally put this team up and made the offense unstoppable. He was - to me - the best QB in the NFL in the second half of the season. Now you see him in practice - nothing went away and he has added more off angle throws to his arsenal - there is no reason to think he will regress - he hasn’t yet and although I can’t expect significant improvement on his numbers - I think he will continue to become a better QB this season.

No problem - after your next response to me - that made sense. I know we don’t agree much, but I do respect what you bring to the board. That was why the response made no sense to me.

Not a negative - I am trying to understand. This is a thread about Allen and his contract and was it worth it. Your statement was if he played the way he played in the AFCCG then the contact is a debacle. No where do you mention Edmunds - so are you talking Edmunds or are you talking about Allen? The guy asks you about the AFCCG and there you dance around and say something about Edmunds- so my question is are you talking about an unknown Edmunds contract or are you talking about the Allen contract being a debacle? I am guessing based upon your response you are talking about an Edmunds contract - which is not what was being talked about here and since your original post does not mention a name - we would all assume you are saying the Allen signing will be a debacle if he plays the way he did in the AFCCG. You are literally quoting a guy that quoted you talking about Josh’s contract. He said it would be a bargain and you literally said “it would be a bargain if he improves”. Then you say if he plays the way he did in the AFCCG it would be a debacle - all relating to Josh’s contract. I think you might have just gotten confused which thread you were in.

I agree - no idea how bad it is. Will be an interesting watch and will be interesting to see the impact on DL battle this has. Does this allow Zimmer and Phillips to make the roster and Butler ends up on IR or something.

It will be interesting with the note that Butler was a head injury today. Does that linger and give the Bills a potential injury list guy to protect someone? Things to watch for in his recovery.

Hap - I am pretty sure in all the shots I saw - they were not wearing the guardian helmets today. I think they are getting ready for the first game and need to move toward losing them at this point. Of course - that could change if they think it could of prevented a Butler injury.

So if Josh plays the way he did in the AFCCG this new contract is a debacle? Josh struggled a bit, but I wouldn’t categorize his play as so bad that the Bills should not have given him this extension. The comment makes no sense to me.

This can’t be - I read on here after last week that Josh really struggles with a crowd. Last year he was only good because of no fans. I distinctly remember being told look at his splits - fans screw him up. Was Mitch with the ones maybe? 🤦‍♂️😂. This board cracks me up. Connect the dots people. 😂

Even if Milano hits him - it still was to late - that was a good read and run.

You should of made this public - so we can all see which non-fan voted No. Crazy.

The problem as was stated by the guys from SPOTRAC is that off ball LBs are the fastest growing position group for salaries outside of QB. With the recent signing and the projected signings coming up next year - they are projecting the off ball LB (Edmunds and Milano) to see an AAV of 20+ million. Part of that is the new deals from this off season and part is things like Edmunds and his 5th year option. So the point being made is if you can get a deal done now (ahead of other guys) you have a shot at 13 million AAV plus spreading bonuses over the 2+ years. If you wait until next year or after the 5th year option - you are looking at an AAV of 19-24 million depending upon timing and tags used. If the Bills FO wants to sign him - now is the time - waiting will likely price him out of what they can afford. My guess is if he isn’t next - they will be looking to draft a replacement because 20+ million is to much, but by even next year - 13 million would slot him into 5-10th when the extension starts and 15th - 20th as it concludes. Early also gives more flexibility in the signing structure - whereas waiting like Milano reduces the options you have. I can understand the trepidation- it just comes down to - is he in their long term (4-5 yr) plans or not. If he is - you work to sign him now to save long term. If he isn’t or you are unsure - you begin to plan for life without him.

This has been the way for years - if guys remember Bruce Smith as a rookie - he was well over 300 lbs. His size and athleticism was part of what made him ideal as a 3-4 DE, but he lacked burst and stamina at that weight. Bruce realized that 300 was way to much and worked himself down into the 280s and eventually the mid 260s to find the right size and speed combo.

I don’t think unscathed, but the huge option bonus (42 million) hits in 2 years - so there is an out, but it still costs a bunch with other money. The SPOTRAC guys were saying it was a well written contract - there are a couple of outs for both the team and the player and spots to extend further and create savings when it goes well. There are protections also for both the team and the player for injury. It is a massive contract, but seemed fair and smart.

I do not get why everyone is so worried about putting Hodgkins or Stevenson on the PS. If Kumerow is better, keep him - you are not trading Davis, McKenzie, or Beasley - you make Kumerow part of you core 6 or 7 and you put the 2 young guys on the PS. WR talent has been very deep the last few years - there is a glut of young talented WRs across the league. Maybe some team grabs them, but then you look at PS and find a replacement if needed. You also have guys like Gentry that are not as young, but have NFL experience and can go on the PS this year - so a loss of Hodgkins or Stevenson is not a huge blow. Keep the best players that can play.

I know Edmunds is a polar figure right now - Mike from SPOTRAC talked specifically about him and why that would be a guy he would extend now rather than later. Basically right now - Edmunds is slotted at about 13 million, but off ball LBs have been skyrocketing in recent years and by next year it probably reaches an AAV of 20 million - so there is a potential to the savings. Plus like Josh and Tre’ - the added 4th and 5th year option gives you a chance to spread bonuses out longer reducing the AAV even more starting in 2022 with the 5th year option. Finally - it gives the team flexibility to structure a shorter term (4 year extension) in a way to offset the Allen extension while actually creating CAP room next year for a Diggs extension. So to me - If McD feels Edmunds is a guy he wants - now is the time for an extension. If you wait - it likely costs you 6-7 million more in AAV to “slot” him in and the franchise tag in 2 years will likely be over 20 million. Basically - if the team wants him long term - now is better because he likely becomes a cap casualty at the end of his contract with the timing and increases. I would imagine Beane has a slotted price for Edmunds - now we can see if he wants to get it done for cost and flexibility.

I will say the biggest difference I have heard was listening to Mike (the founder of SPOTRAC) on WGR and him talking about Beane. First he talked about when this contract came down - it was compared initially to Buffalo’s previously biggest contract - Dareus. He talked about what a terrible contract that was - not in the money as much as how it was written - he knew that the contract was going to cause issues. Whaley blew that extension - the money was to much, but there were no protections for the team - the agent fleeced the GM and he knew almost immediately that was going to turn out bad. Compare that to Beane - who he said has come in below on most of his signing in the last 2 years - the Tre’ White and Dawkins deals were brilliant and now the Josh deal - providing flexibility, outs for both the player and the team, just well written and beautifully thought out. They talked about the quote that Beane is running a “masterclass” in being a GM. My guess is if Whaley was GM - we are still mired in mediocrity because he never had a vision or a plan - things just seemed to happen. Beane started thinking about this process and signing 3 years ago and even with mistakes along the way - his (and Sean’s) vision is shining through.

Nice - exactly as I suspected it actually saves them about 8 million next year. I would also guess - like the Mahomes deal - his 27 million base salary in 2023 would be able to be converted to a signing bonus prior to the year allowing about 20 million to get freed up in 2023 if needed. All depending on when the cap explodes with the new contracts - which we should see the massive jump after the 2023 season as the TV contracts go into effect for 2023. The deal gets better and better for flexibility and adding/keeping FAs.

That guy is so off - this signing actually saves the Bills significant CAP space next year - a little more up front this year and in 2023 with the new TV deal. Perfectly done by Beane.

If not we will thank you!

Looks like based upon the reported structure - they have an additional 5-10 million available next year and a way to structure a Diggs (or Edmunds) extension (or other FAs) to hit big in years opposite Josh’s big years - well thought out and planned by Beane.

I also love the way his salary goes up and then drops the next year and then up and down - that should allow you to be able to sign 1-2 guys with a similar structure on the off years - it sets up a potential Edmunds extension and maybe a Diggs extension with their salary structure mirror Allen’s on the opposite years. Nice work by Beane and Allen on this. Absolutely Huge!!

I don’t think it is a typo - as a option bonus - it is essentially a signing bonus - so that will get spread out over the last 6 years. It looks to me like his 20+ million 5th year option next year actually drops to 4.1 million + 8 million for the option bonus + 3 million for the singing bonus - so most likely a savings of 5-10 million next year. He is a bit more this year, but less next year giving the Bills more savings next year when they are tight.

Exactly - assuming they made no changes to this year or next year it adds up to essentially an 8 year 275 million deal or about 34+ million per season - backloaded to get through to the new TV deal - with some upfront cash. It is a great deal over the long haul and my guess is it will look better as more details are released and it increases as the salary cap increases to allow even more flexibility (JMO).