Rochesterfan

Honestly depending on pre-season - my guess would be Brenda takes the place of Yeldon and most weeks is sat. The only difference is if Kumerow beats out Jones as a gunner and then Jones is cut. I would expect 3 RBs active each week. I also would not be surprised (depending on the Ertz situation) if Knox, Hollister, and Sweeney are the only active TEs with Hollister taking Gilliam’s ST role.

I agree and based upon what came out of OTAs and minicamp - the Bills are working on in-breaking routes and throws toward the middle of the field. - those are throws Josh has been more hesitant to make (they got him in trouble as a rookie - especially against NE). Those would include using the TE and RB as a safety valve - I would think. Also please do not think that I hate Ertz because I think he would be the best TE the Bills have, but I think with Josh Allen as he is wired - you could give him Travis Kelce as a TE and our crappy 2018 WRs and he would still use the WRs at about a 5:1 rate compared to a HOF level TE - it is not hating on Josh as he is elite, but he is just wired to make plays and so far in his career from college on - WRs make plays. TEs move chains and are critical inside the 5 yard line, but between the 10’s - the WRs is where the money is at.

I totally agree that Josh likes to throw guys open - what would be interesting is if he would actually use the TE in a way that is really an option. Josh going back to his college days with a true NFL caliber TE and borderline NFL WR - preferred throwing to his WR at a 2.5 to 1 ratio and used the #2 And #3 WR at the same rate as the TE. I understand that we question is Knox a legit TE, but the number of TE targets - even when those guys have been open is tiny compared to the targeting of WRs - even when covered. Look at the Davis catch versus SF over the top of Warner - he had the TE leak out perfectly for a huge gain also - wide open - perfect design, but Josh loves the throws to WRs - especially outside the hash and numbers and he has the arm to make it. My feelings are that having Ertz is another option, but without making major changes to the thought process and how Josh attacks a defense - I think Ertz is putting up numbers similar to Knox and Kroft over the last 2 years. 35 catches on 50 targets for 300-400 yards and 4 TDs. I don’t believe he would be the difference maker some envision simply because of where in the progression for Josh the TE falls. Now if Beasley is unavailable for any reason and they use Ertz in that role maybe he makes a difference, but I think on most plays - the TE is an afterthought for Josh - not Daboll necessarily as he came from NE as a TE coach - he knows gettin those guys open - Josh just does not consistently or even often look for that as his primary guys were getting open last year.

I’m not sure. From a DC position am I really worried about Ertz versus Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, Davis, McKenzie? If Ertz was on the team - I as DC - would be thrilled to have the ball going to him all day and keeping it out of the WRs hands. Until they prove that they will use the TE to win games on a consistent basis - my gameplan would continue to focus mostly on ways to handle, limit, or contain the WRs. Either tight man coverage with doubling of some of the WRs or a blitzing package to go after Josh. Ertz getting 8 or 10 yards making a catch and going down would be acceptable. Make the Bills go down the field slowly without big chunk plays. If I’m a DC - Knox worries me more than Ertz at this point - he is inconsistent, but when he catches the ball - especially on the outside - he has gotten some nice chunk plays and has run over people bringing huge energy to both Josh and the team. Ertz gives you another reliable receiver (although his catch % last year was worse than Knox), but his strength is not in blocking and his Yards per Reception is not great - which all suggests he is basically a get to a spot - make a catch - and get tackled guy and that may help with a few 1st downs, but actually lessens the offense versus Beasley in that same role.

No don’t fix the loopholes - those are the same loopholes that the Bills will be using once they sign Allen to his extension. The Bills already used some of those loopholes to sign back everyone and will continue to exploit them.

Don’t disagree, but having even 1 healthy WR for the Colts, Ravens, and Chiefs game might have helped even more than Ertz could have. Additionally - not that it matters as he can learn, but Josh Allen has never favored throwing to TEs - even in college with a pro level TE in Hollister - he significantly favored throwing to WRs. When both Hollister and Gentry were in Wyoming- Gentry got 72 catches, the number 2 wr got mid 30 catches and then Hollister with 30. I think unlike a guy like Jackson - Allen prefers to throw to WRs and use the field outside the numbers and down the field. I am not sure he is comfortable and has adapted to throwing all of the middle of the field TE safety throws. He has had them in the past and chosen to bypass that safety route for a WR downfield streaking across the field. He does the same thing with RBs as safety values - he is getting better, but it is more limited.

I don’t disagree with either of these on a whole, but if someone expects that Ertz is coming in and giving you anything like he produced in Philadelphia in the past that is crazy. If your expectations are that Ertz gets you 40-50 catches, between 400-500 yards, and 5 TDs. Then you might be right on. The question becomes what are you willing to trade and how much are you willing to pay for that kind of production? Are you willing to give up a mid round pick in what could be the deepest draft in a long, long time after the pandemic and pay him 4/5 of your remaining salary cap space - because I am not sure I am willing to do that for basically the name. For me - I am not overly concerned if we get him or not. I would be fine if it was a 7th and Philadelphia maintained 60% of his salary - so we got him at ~3.5 million or if Philadelphia took back salary like Addison and a 7th or Butler and a 7th for Ertz, but if we start pushing 5th round and his full salary - I would rather see Beane wait and try to get him after cuts.

It depends upon where those catches are coming from. Zach Ertz is not as good of a receiving threat as Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, or Gabriel Davis - so with the limited number of passes per game (averaged 38 last year) - Diggs - ~ 11 per game Sanders - ~ 6 per game Beasley - ~ 7 per game Davis - ~ 4 per game RB’s and McKenzie -~ 5 per game That leaves you about 5 targets per games and if they all went to Ertz with his career catch % that would get him 50 catches. My guess is he would not be the only TE targeted so probably 1/3 go to Knox, Hollister, Sweeney- so Ertz would be in the 35 catch range. If we want him in the 50-55 catch range - then you are pulling targets from Beasley, Sanders, and Davis to feed Ertz and that is a net negative to the offense. I also do not want to give up assets or pay significant money to Ertz for a 50 catch season. That is what we got from the TEs last year at a better rate of return with no added cost. I agree that the FO said they got little out of the TE, but they also said the running game struggled and they wanted to improve, but brought back the same o-line and RBs basically. So yes I think they would like more out of the TE position, but I am not sure it comes from an acquisition like Ertz more an adjustment to game planning. I guess the final thing I would say about this is if I am an opposing defense - I would rather see the Bills throw to Ertz over Diggs, Beasley, Sanders and Davis. I wouldn’t really adjust coverage to accommodate for Ertz because he is less of a threat than those other guys. He is also less of a blocker than the other TEs so he helps less on the running plays. If we decided to run more 2 TE sets you are pulling talented WRs off the field for lesser players including Ertz. In Philadelphia- Ertz was the best receiver they had for several years or at least top 2 which is why he got the targets. In Buffalo he comes in as the 5th best target at best and should get targets commensurate with that level of talent.

The numbers are all there and all correct, but he was on a team during that time that had very limited WRs and a QB and system designed to use the TE. I am fairly certain that if Ertz was given the same number of targets as Knox - let’s say last years 44 targets - his numbers don’t look the same as in Philadelphia. So let’s say we forget Ertz last year - where his catch % was 50% and actually below Knox’s - we call last year the outlier for him and look at 2019. Ertz - 135 targets, 88 catches, 65% catch percentage, 916 yards, 10.4 Y/R, and 6 TDs. Now let’s look at Knox if he got that kind of volume targets using his career average: Knox - on 135 targets - 76 catches, 56% catch percentage, 988 yards, 13.0 Y/R and 8 TDs. The difference between them would be 12 catches and Ertz would put up fewer yards and TDs - not exactly a huge advantage for Ertz - plus Ertz played mostly as essentially a split out TE - more of a WR not a blocking role as the Bills use the TE. So let’s say we move Ertz into the current Bills offense and gave him a similar role to Knox and Kroft and gave Ertz those targets using his 2019 numbers. Kroft and Knox 2020 - 50 Targets, 36 catches, 407 yards, 6 Tds Now Ertz numbers with those Targets: Ertz - 50 targets, 33 catches, 343 yards, 4 TDs He actually produced less than Kroft and Knox combined. Look I don’t care either way on Ertz - to me he is no more or less a threat than what they had - the difference is all about volume. If Ertz comes in - how many targets does he get and where do they come from. Is he playing a role similar to Knox and Kroft or are they playing him in a role similar to his time in Philadelphia or more Kelce role? If we are giving him more targets - what WR are they coming from because his numbers are significantly worse than the WRs - so taking catches from them is a downgrade. The most important thing though is what are you giving up and paying for different piece - again to me although the play different positions- Ertz was Philadelphia’s Beasley - not Knox - and therefore that is the impact that will be felt. Beasley played the slot get open and get a first down role that Ertz had in Philadelphia and basically Beasley puts up just slightly better numbers than Ertz on average in Buffalo in that role.

The only player on any team that gives you that kind of increased or decrease chance of winning is QB. No other player or position even shifts a line fraction of points. Signing Ertz maybe gives you a bit under 1% chance to win a game over Knox. The change in a TE on a team with 5 starting caliber WRs is fairly insignificant- especially a TE that is more of a split out rather than a blocking TE. The only way Ertz really helps is if Beasley chooses to sit out - they are the 2 players that split out and move chains - Ertz is not really going against Knox/Hollister as they are playing more of an H-back blocking role to protect Josh.

No way in He🏒🏒 does Ertz get anywhere close to that number of targets nor should he. He might get Krofts and maybe some of Knox’s targets ~40 targets. The Brown targets and then some will be taken up by Sanders - a significantly better receiver than Ertz. I would imagine Hollister also gets some targets along with Knox/Sweeney. Even if Ertz comes in - unless Beasley decides to opt out - you have 4 WRs that are better receivers than Ertz and will be used more in the passing game. Ertz also was not a great blocker in Philadelphia- so my guess would be he gets limited snaps as they used the TE in a pass blocking role - not a strength of Ertz. I think this is mostly smoke because I don’t think Ertz really fits with the offense and if they bring him in - it takes snaps from Beasley more than anyone else and I prefer Beasley as the chain mover.

My guess is this has a lot to do with it. PFF is most likely excluding pass rusher tackles for loss as that makes a huge difference. They are probably looking at off the ball inside guys not on the LOS versus outside LBs on the LOS - those players are typically in a grouping of EDGE players now not LBs (OLBs and DEs). Those guys dominate the PFR reference table provided - guys like Watt, Mack, etc.

Great - it is absurd, but who started Tua over Fitz? Someone made that call and if Tua sucks - then who is to blame for starting him?

If Tua sucks - why start and play him ahead of Fitz that had the team in playoff contention. That is on Flores. Once you have decided to start Tua - why pull him out of 3 games at the end - is he not good enough or needs more time - then he was not ready to start - on Flores. Basically they lost opportunity to gain him valuable experience in end of game and pressure situations by pulling him and you missed the playoffs by choosing to start him over Fitz. It was the worst of both worlds. That is all on the HC. Their defense way overachieved and they lost out due to Flores. I think he is a middle of the road guy that has lost part of that team with his handling of the team and the QB. The Bills could of been in the same boat with the benching of Tyrod and Peterman, but McDermott talked with the team leaders and got things righted and found a way to make the playoffs. Flores with a better team benched Fitz and refused to go back until it was to late and they missed out.

This is not the first time this has been spoken off. I have heard several former Bills talk about this in the past as they had 1 player that came out to the team and there were at least 2 more guys that hinted, but never officially came out to the teams during this time. The players on the Bills from the late 80’s through the late 90’s did not seem to be bothered and they kept it fairly tightly sealed, but there were rumors that leaked. There were also players way back in GB under Lombardi that were known by teammates to be LGBT, but basically Lombardi told the team if anyone can help us win - no one should care - basically treat everyone as an equal and do your job. The Redskins also had several gay players in the late 70’s and were a very inclusive team. A few of the players have since come out and several were outed by the beginning of the AIDS epidemic before treatment and drugs. The NFL like many other groups (such as the military) has had their share of LGBT players and they have typically not seen the backlash associated with it that some people seem to want to think would happen in a locker room setting. The players seem to respect the wishes of the other and expect them to do their job and be a good teammate. The fact is - it doesn’t matter who the player/players were and people trying to figure it out is just stupid. It doesn’t matter who - what matters is it is another voice saying look others have been through this and with support they achieved the highest levels.

Cover1 did a great video analysis of the running game and covered all this. The offense switched up their blocking scheme to better merge with the pass blocking scheme and the switch to more 3-4 WRs and no full back. This switch also moved the primary TE off the LOS more and into an H-Back role. The final piece was this was designed with the original starting 5 OL last year (Dawkins, Spain, Morse, Feliciano, Ford/Williams) and those guys never played a snap together. Compounding the switch was the decrease in practice and preseason to get the timing working together - especially on double teams and combo blocks. The blocking scheme adjustment also was very new for Singletary - who admitted he was more comfortable in a straight ahead man scheme rather than the combo blocking double team/zone style and he mis-read some holes and totally missed some runs. I believe from listening to the coaches and the Cover1 guys that they felt the run game had some potential, but they needed to focus on it and last year the big focus was on Josh Allen and the passing attack. They gave a much higher percentage of their practice time to getting timing and passing calls meshed together than putting in a running attack and that showed in the stats. In the end - I believe they realize scoring comes from the passing game and they just need to do a little better in the running game when forcing teams into coverage - nickel and dime sets. I think they will take a lesser running game if they can keep the explosive passing game, but I expect with increased preseason and practice - they will mesh a bit better than last year - I don’t expect them to lead the league or even run significantly more times than last year, but I think they will be more efficient and effective.

How do you think it is going to work this year. Sounds like normal PS and they have said they do not plan to adjust games. Last year was different as there was nothing, but precautions and once it got into a small group it took too long to make sure the spread had stopped. This year they have something to help prevent spread and illness - team that get infected will sit players for 2-4 weeks and have to play without. I doubt they will set up forfeits unless the NFL/NFLPA can agree to something, but they have already decided - vaccinated players that miss a game get paid and unvaccinated players do not necessarily get paid and if found to have broken rules - can actually be fined.

Couldn’t disagree more. It was never about color. The NFLPA and the NFL were studying if players wearing just 1 shell and padding set to get the best fit possible to reduced concussions. The issue with having 2 different color helmets was that it nearly always required a 2nd shell and although helmets are very close in size they were worried about proper fit and mostly proper tightness was missing. The way you can tell it was not about color was teams could paint the shells for a throwback game and paint them back, but for most teams the cost and missed practice time as they waited for the outer coating to dry was not worth it. The NFL and NFLPA must have decided that the number of concussions was not significantly reduced by 1 single shell that having a second shell was prohibitive and therefore agreed to make the change. We will see - once they add this data - they could eventually return to a single shell or stay with 2 - we will see how the seasons go.

Pretty sure this was part of their issue - the protocol was going to be very hard to enforce at SJF for the Bills and they recognized the amount of work it was going to take and decided that with everything already having been worked out at home and the protocol already having been approved there - safest and easiest move.

Everything you said is fine. Let’s take a peek at some things though. Police officers saw a suicide rate of around 17 per 100,000 All youth suicide rate is running 18 per 100,000 LGBT+ youth is running between 4-5 times higher than their peers or ~60 - 100 per 100,000. LGBT+ suicide rates go up with harassment at school, being in a rejecting home, and being in a rejecting state. Each episode of harassment raises the suicide rate for that individual by 2-3% and makes them more likely to be bullied and harassed again. Gay marriage and other legalization efforts have actually cut the rate of suicide in LGBT+ youths significantly and in studies prior to and after legalization the numbers drop significantly as states adopted gay marriage. Globally in countries that accept LGBT+ people and offer protection and legal marriage - the suicide rate is as much as 20% lower and brings LGBT+ youths in line with the all youths suicide rate in those countries. For most kids - suicide seems to be caused by “not fitting in” - being bullied, being different and not being accepted and that is especially true of LGBT+ kids. You are absolutely correct - it does get better, but for these kids even having 1 or 2 role models in non-traditional places can open their eyes and can allow them to maybe seek that help that they need. The Trevor Project does that for LGBT+ youths - much as the police have a suicide program that you discussed.

Probably fairly accurate. If you look up weather averages of metropolitan areas - Buffalo is #2 of the top 51 US cities for snowfall behind only Rochester. It is also the #2 windiest metropolitan city during the winter months ahead of all the other northern cities and right in line with Boston. Therefore - although many other cities in the Northeast - NE, Chicago, GB, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and NY/NJ - none of them combine both the snow and the wind of Buffalo. It is especially bad because Orchard Park gets even more snow than Buffalo because of the Lake. Places like GB, Chicago and Pittsburgh get the freezing cold temps, but teams can play in cold temps with little impact. The large amounts of snow and the wind both have the ability to impact games and they also lessen significantly the crowd noise and size - thereby reducing our home field advantage. Therefore as we have seen in recent years - the number of games impacted by weather is Buffalo (especially wind) is already higher than most places and then we built the stadium in a spot that is even more impacted by weather as OP gets both more wind and more snow than downtown. We saw what happened when the team was good in the 90 and had deep playoff runs - we had many late season games - including playoff games - that did not sell out and had empty seats. Then through the drought it was worse. Now we are extending the season later into the more snowy months of January and playoff games into potentially February- it is likely to become even more of a factor. I get that people want weather to be a part of things, but for me - I prefer to see the game played at a higher level and really don’t want to see games negatively impacted because of wind gusts or snow that covers the field. Buffalo I one of the only NFL cites that gets the double whammy of Snow and wind. Even Cleveland with its location on the lake provides protection of the stadium from snow.

although I agree with the 🤦‍♂️ On some of this - at least it is being discussed. Much like race - sexual orientation cannot progress without honest discussion and trying to find a common ground. The fact that even with some total disagreement- we see many people being accepting, but having different perspectives see @Simonand @GunnerBill - at least they can have that discussion. Race has been much harder and much more ingrained, but as we as a country must have some frank, honest talks - it helps moves things along. The worst thing we can do (and it is a huge part of race culture) is provide lip service without action or discussion. It is uncomfortable to talk about - let’s basically ignore it and hope it goes away. There are many, many more supportive people out there than people realize, but because a subject is touchy or uncomfortable or quite frankly they do not have a stake in the pot - they just sit quietly on the side and let these subjects flow by. I don’t agree with some big parts that have been said, but I think it also provided some healthy conversations and I learned a bit more about my fellow TBDers and have even more respect for certain posters like @GunnerBillfor his part in the overall discussion. So for me the absolute best part of Nassib coming out - especially in his quiet and understated way - was the discussion that followed and if that kind of discussion can go on here - where else can it happen that has a true impact on people’s lives.

You do help pay for the theater with ticket prices, concession prices, and typically they get a nice discounted tax rate to build because of the sales tax they bring in - so your taxes help fund that discount they receive. They get a better interest rate - making your interest rate worse to help fund. They get tons and tons of incentives to build and all of that comes from you. Pegula is working with everyone to fund the stadium - just as he should be. He should get some NFL funding, some state funding, some county funding, and some of his own money. It seems like he is making choices based on exactly what he thinks works in this area and you are bashing him - just crazy. I think they will use a bunch of means to get money - PSLs, a tax hike, a user fee on tickets and parking, taxes on gambling/betting, a hotel tax, etc to fund what they need. Just like the movie theater- you and all of us will be paying and I am fine with that. I would be better if they were building a better, bigger stadium downtown that could serve multiple functions and help bring a Super Bowl as they grow the area. Basically the current design locks that out as a future option, but is more fiscally responsible.

Hate that for any young player - even one with that name. Take the year - recover 100% and come back strong for next year.

Why it matters!