transplantbillsfan

Well... we don't have Tolbert on the field anymore... so that can only help

Oh holy hell... Teeflebees is Royale with Cheese?!

My god... if I ever hear the phrase "set the hallway" again from anyone I'm gonna stick it in their hallway Really though... solid article, but the ending is what I care about right now... if his mechanics have been fixed... let him play. They're never ever going to be perfect for any QB: Leading up to the draft we heard that Allen was working with former NFL quarterback Jordan Palmer, which Allen even mentioned in his initial press conference. His work with Palmer was noticeable in all of the Draft Season events, such as the Senior Bowl, Scouting Combine, and even his Pro Day. Some of the issues that I highlighted, like his erratic footwork, lack of balance, unnecessary head/eye movement, setting the hallway, and stepping on the midline and tilting and slashing, seemed to be straightened out. Here are some clips from last season and then from Allen’s Pro Day. What a difference. Smooth drops, light feet, great balance, and efficient movements. Thanks. I think how quickly and dra These 2 posts about sum it up for me When I've watched even the videos talking about what Allen did wrong, I still thought he looked good throwing the football. That's not how I felt about EJ, who looked like a robot, and I think got worse with time. Here are my reasons for getting behind Allen very quickly after loathing the pick initially and believing he's going to be the starter most of the season: Natural Passer (ties in with all the upper body mechanics stuff already talked about, but I think the fact that he was a HS pitcher who threw a 92 MPH fastball as a Senior helps) + Natural Physical Talent/Stature/Athleticism + Natural Smarts + Extremely Late Bloomer (makes me mostly dismiss the analytics) + Farmboy Upbringing + Perfect Attitude (which includes what appears to be a good blend of humility and confidence)

Some analysis by omission here. Brees sat behind Flutie who had just been shafted for a year by the Bills by being 2nd string to Rob Johnson after being a Pro Bowler and NFL Comeback player in 1998. The Bills cut Flutie and the Chargers brought him in as the clear starter because of what he had done with the Bills, establishing he was a solid NFL vet. Also, the Chargers went 1-15 the year before Flutie and Brees got there. And Flutie started out that season 5-2, and while in typical Flutie fashion, he wasn't lighting the world on fire (49.2% Completion %, 1,563 yards passing, 7 TDs, 3 INTs, 1 rushing TD) in his 1st 7 games, he was winning. There was no reason to really consider putting Brees on the field while he was winning. Then there was a 9 game slide, and it's not exactly the unreasonable or odd approach for the coach to stick with the guy who got the team to a good record to start the season to let him get the team out of the tailspin. Bledsoe was the starter in New England. Brady was a 6th round draft pick. It's questionable, maybe even doubtful that Brady would have had a HOF career if Drew Bledsoe weren't knocked out of the game, forcing Brady into the game. Bledsoe hadn't been great for a while at that point, but it's not like Brady was the heir apparent. Again, you're entire thought process centers on the idea (not the fact, but the idea) that time on the bench is a more valuable learning tool than time on the field. Even though Flutie, Bledsoe and Favre may not have had fantastic seasons or won Super Bowls while the young guy was on the bench, you seem to believe that the Head Coaches had the long game in their heads--that it wasn't about winning games so much as developing the QBs. Whether they end up being right or wrong, a Head Coach is almost certainly going to start the guy who gives the team the best chance to win NOW, because he doesn't know if he'll have the job in 2, 3 or 4 years when the young guy has finally developed into what all your good planning promised he'd be. Maybe it's best to sit Allen for the year. Maybe it's not. I'm sure if Allen seems like he needs to sit, McDermott will sit him, but it'll be because McCarron is the better QB at that time, not because Allen still has some stuff he needs to learn, despite being the better QB than McCarron or Peterman. That's fine if you believe it'd be best for Allen to ride the bench. No problem. It might be. It might not be. But based on history of high 1st round draft picks coming to a team with no clearly, or even semi-clearly established vet QB, the 1st round draft pick starts multiple games in his 1st year, if not all of them. Right now Vegas has Allen's over/under odds of games started this year at 10.5 games--more than any of the other 4 drafted 1st round QBs. I think that's about right... and right now, I'd go over.

FWIW... Vegas sure thinks Allen will be starting a lot of games this year. Over/Under for games started by Allen is more than any of the other rookie QBs at 10 1/2 games.

The 3 best QBs in football at this moment sat on the bench, not in some altruistic effort to shield them from the horrors of the starting lineup, but because each one of them had a really solid vet QB in front of them in Bledsoe, Flutie and Favre. He'll, they might not have actually gotten any better sitting on the bench... you seem to think it's automatic that they did, but it's not. Maybe Brady and Brees have another Super Bowl each and Rodgers has 2 more if they all started from day 1. Maybe they don't. But the reason they sat had little to nothing to do with development (Brees might be the closest exception), but all to do with a significantly established pro bowl or borderline pro bowl caliber QB sitting in front of them. We have AJ McCarron. Maybe he proves to be obviously better than Allen as Bledsoe, Flutie, and Favre were at the time Brady, Brees and Rodgers sat on the bench, and if he does, he should start. But if he doesn't, you start Allen, because he's better and gives the team a better chance to win.

I think Dilfer in the equation adds something to this, but the problem is there's very little focus on the "soul" and much too much on the "science." If the 2 of them keep doing this, I think what Dilfer should start bringing to the table is all the personal background stuff that contributes to the prospect's heart and work ethic. I know he talks about all the "No's" Allen received from D1 schools, but no talk of him playing at a tiny unknown HS in rural California, or that he was just 6'0 and 180 lbs as a Junior, or that he was just barely 200 lbs when he first got to Wyoming, or 3 sport athlete in HS in an age of hyper focus on one sport, or his farmboy upbringing. This just feels like sports science with an afterthought of what Dilfer can say in 30 seconds.

If they actually believe in their scouting process, why not declare Mayfield the starter right now? Why give even one of No. 1 pick’s reps to the guy you acquired with the 65th pick? What stinks is a few weeks into August, after Jackson has pointlessly given hundreds of Mayfield’s valuable practice reps to Taylor, Jackson will come out and announce Mayfield the starter, saying how they’re blown away at how quickly Mayfield has come along. They shouldn’t be—he’s the guy they chose over literally everyone else in this draft. Really?

I just watched Allen's PC for rookie minicamp and the kid just strikes me as being an absolute sponge that's already absorbed a ton, but is still perceived as dry. Asked about the accuracy concerns his response and expression just gave me the sense of a guy who's thinking "there's that question, finally, so here's the standard response I need to give--but you're in for a real surprise if you believe I have serious accuracy issues." That's not remotely what he said... it's just the subtleties of his response that make me think he was thinking that. Love the respect, admiration and clear desire to learn from Jumbo, too. Oh, also something new that just adds to what I've been finding since we drafted him as more evidence to believe he was just kinda plagued by being a late physical bloomer: he only ultimately realized he had a Division 1 arm as a Senior in HS.

Has MMQB made a similar proclamation that Allen should just be named the starter now? Same logic would apply, right?

Get out of my head!!!

Dabol claims he has a plan for Allen... I suspect that'sa plan he would implement if Allen started right away that might involve a similar approach to what the Steelers did with Big Ben in his rookie season, where he started and they went to the playoffs and won a game. Rely heavily on the run game. And while everyone points to an aging Shady and our OL departures as reasons that won't work, our RBs have gotten better simply because of the departure of Tolbert, which splits Shady's carries with a couple of young promising RBs we saw last year. And with all the concerns over our OL, from last year it's simply Bodine replacing Wood and Groy replacing Incognito... hopefully Miller improves in year 3, too. I'm excited to see what Groy can do and Bodine has been a capable starter in the league. Even if Allen is the starting QB, I don't think it'll be with a vision of taking lumps and losing... I think Dabol and McDermott will have a plan to win now with the rookie. I think the "seriousness" of his mechanical issues are overblown. Big Ben and Joe Flacco we're said to have mechanics issues coming into the league. Both started immediately and made the playoffs in year 1. This is not to say Allen doesn't have mechanical issues, but I really question the veracity of the consistent argument that he's a significant outlier in terms of mechanics from what other 1st round QBs have been for the last decade plus, which has seen high 1st round draft picks consistently starting in year 1. And while Mahomes may be a good test now positively, it won't prove much--Jake Locker sat his 1st year in 2011 and it really seemed to do him no good at all.

The rest of what's in this post here is based on the bolded opinion. You point to Brady, Brees and Rodgers as proof that sitting works, while neglecting the immediate and sustained success (in terms of player and, in most cases, team as well) of QBs who started right away like Big Ben, Ryan, Flacco, Wilson, Luck (all of whom went to the playoffs right away and 3 won Super Bowls before their rookie contract expired), Wentz (on pace to be league MVP 2nd year after flashing his rookie year), Carr (fantastic his 2nd year... both team and personal after flashing his rookie season), Newton (in the playoffs by his 3rd year and in the Super Bowl and League MVP by his 5th), etc. Maybe sitting Allen is best, maybe not, but sitting 1st round rookie QBs just overwhelmingly hasn't been happening for more than a decade, and there's been a lot of both individual and team success coming off those decisions to start these guys right off the bat, so saying that Allen's development would best be done in a way top QBs haven't been developed for a decade plus is awfully presumptuous.

You cite Beane saying "If he wins the job in TC, all the other players will see it. At that point, how can you not start him?"... are you saying you disagree with him or are you implying that statement is an argument for Allen sitting to start the season?

Do you think Cam obviously hurt his team by starting right away? Do you think his 4,756 yards and 35 TDs obviously hurt his team? Do you think Derek Anderson obviously would have led his team to more wins if he started instead of Cam? Hindsight is 20/20 with everything, but I think the notion that Derek Anderson should have started in Cam Newton's rookie year is silly. Moulding the perfect QB for every team by grooming him for 3 years like Aaron Rodgers or a year and a half like Tom Brady or a year plus like Phillip Rivers or for a bit like Eli Manning or a year like Patrick Mahomes or a year and a half like Colin kaepernick or a year like Jake Locker is a wonderful concept, but we don't have an established pro bowl to HOF vet to hold the fort like is a Brett Favre, Drew Bledsoe, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Alex Smith, or Matt Hasslebeck. We have the largely unknown AJ McCarron. Me too.

Warner said at the end of this that all 3 of our QBs are "basically the same guy... they're not mobile guys."

I'm in complete agreement with Teddy KGB... awesome Allen might sit for a little bit this season, but I fully expect he's the starter for most of the 2nd half of the season. And I still think, depending on how much of the work with Palmer he's done is retained, he should and will just start immediately. The NFL has rules that are so unbelievably QB friendly now that it's almost pointless to have a guy sit on the bench for an extended period of time. The only reasons to sit a rookie QB, in my opinion are: 1) Mechanics need a complete teardown and rebuild. As I said, I'm hoping the offseason work sticks, but his mechanics even at Wyoming weren't awful, he just had occasional bad habits. 2) No familiarity with what an NFL QB does. That's not Allen... he's arguably the most familiar with things like learning an NFL playbook and huddling and calling audible at the line and taking snaps under center. Mahomes sat last year because of both of those, but mainly #2 after functioning in an Air Raid offense. Also, Alex Smith. AJ McCarron is not Alex Smith. Kaepernick did the same... see all the above reasons for Mahomes. Jake Locker sat for a year behind Hasslebeck and it didn't seem to do him any good. Everyone likes to go back to Aaron Rodgers, but Rodgers wasn't sitting for long if at all, if Favre weren't there. Going earlier than Rodgers is a new era of QBing in the NFL with different rules. Allen might sit, but I think if he sits, the reason will primarily be some regression in form and mechanics from what he's worked on that needs tweaking. Otherwise, I think you'll find him under center in meaningful regular season action in the second half of the season, if not sooner.

2 inches taller Almost 20 lbs heavier SIGNIFICANTLY more athletic and nimble on his feet If you're a Wonderlic guy... McCarron got a 22 while Allen got a 37 McCarron has 4 years on the bench and 3 career NFL starts and didn't play in a pro style offense in College. Allen doesn't have those NFL starts, but he played in a pro style offense in college consistently making checks and reads at the line, calling plays in the huddle, and taking snaps under center. The chip on his shoulder has to be at least as big as McCarron, but probably bigger considering McCarron was part of a team that won 3 National Championships while he was at Alabama, 2 consecutively while he was the starter... I just don't think he has as much to play for, frankly. And OF COURSE McCarron did more in college... look at the team he was on and the players he played with! Oh yeah... and the arm strength thing, too

By this logic, I suppose you must think Carson Wentz, of North Dakota State, was WAY overdrafted then?

Sorry if this is already posted-- everything seems to be at this point-- but this is an interview with Brent Vigen on One Bills Live: http://www.wgr550.com/media/audio-channel/05-08-wyoming-oc-brent-vigen-one-bills-live This is a guy who recruited and coached Carson Wentz, too. Interesting notes from the interview itself (and yes, he also says all the obvious stuff about making all the NFL throws and such): - Allen won't have trouble transitioning from his "college offense" to an NFL offense in any other way than learning a new playbook. -He's seen the footwork improvements being talked about this offseason with regard to Allen's work with Palmer, and he seems a little bitter about the limitations the NCAA puts on time with coaches for athletes. -Allen (like Wentz) was a very late physical bloomer--likely the reason neither were really recruited by D1 colleges. More to the point, as Allen started at Wyoming in 2015, he was 6'4, but only 205 lbs. Having listened to a few other interviews, I know he was 6'2, 185 lbs as a Senior in HS and 6'0, 180 lbs as a Junior. Plus, he played at a small unknown HS in a small unknown town.

I agree, especially with the rules now skewed so much in favor of the offense and the QB, in particular

Went through 5 pages, actually. I see from 26CB's link that he posted it earlier in the thread I mentioned in the OP... honestly it's an article I figured he would have posted as a thread, so I was surprised not to see it. When I see any thread that grows up to the point where it's approaching 20+ pages, the notion of figuring out if an article that has been posted or jumping into a conversation like that on page 22 is daunting for some. Like I said, if this needs to be merged or deleted, it can be.

I get that there's a "Start Allen Week 1" thread that this will probably get merged with, if it's not already in there---->>> Sorry if it's already been posted, but I looked through the first 4 pages to see if this article was a thread already and I figure this article is worthy of its own thread and discussion... so for those of us who don't want to even open a 20 page discussion, here's an opportunity to take a quick look at a really thoughtful breakdown of why Allen starts this year... not necessarily week 1, but definitely in 2018: https://www.cover1.net/four-reasons-josh-allen-starts-in-2018/ with some tidbits... Reason 1: A serious lack of nuanced route runners (WR’s) You’re probably thinking to yourself, “what does this even mean, Nate?” Well, the fact of the matter is the Bills don’t boast a phenomenal group of athletes at the wide receiver position. For that reason, you might think it would be crazy to throw a rookie quarterback out there with the lackluster weapons currently sitting on the offensive side of the ball, but hear me out. What we have seen time and time again on film is a willingness from Allen to make highly contested throws. Doesn’t matter if he’s throwing across his body or believing in his receiver to make a play on the ball in heavy coverage, Allen showed he had the arm strength and guts to put the ball in places former Bills quarterbacks never dreamed of forcing it. and Reason 2: Problems on the offensive line This could go both ways, but I’m putting this factor in favor of the rookie. After departures of Richie Incognito and Eric Wood, the offensive line is set to be a work in progress in 2018. The additions of Russell Bodine and Marshal Newhouse haven’t exactly inspired much hope for a unit that looked overmatched at times in 2017. With the idea that they might take a step back again this season, whoever ends up at quarterback will likely spend a lot of time on the ground. On the field, outside of having to create something from nothing, the one thing Allen showed a lot on film was an innate ability to dodge would-be tacklers from inside the pocket. The impressive part on a lot of occasions for Allen was his ability to stretch the ball vertically with a muddy pocket using his incredible arm strength. and Reason 3: Simple offensive terminology One of the great things about the Erhardt-Perkins system that makes it so quarterback friendly is the complexity of the language. One of the biggest leaps a young quarterback has to make from college to the pros is figuring out the terminology of the offense. The problem for young guys is not only do they have to memorize the terminology; they have to be able to spit it out quick, clear and concise. Memories of Jared Goff on Hard Knocks having issues calling plays in the huddle go to show you just how difficult the jump from vanilla, dumbed down terminology in college to damn near dissertations in the NFL. But as it concerns Josh Allen and the Bills, the Erhardt-Perkins offense that Brian Daboll is rooted in is best known for its simple language. and Reason 4: Ability This is the reason that will become most apparent to fans in July. He’ll be able to make plays but more specifically throws that neither AJ McCarron nor Nathan Peterman will be capable of making. Click the link because there are plenty of great gifs that align with these arguments and an offensive play design for Reason #3 that's interesting, too. I can't believe the 180 I've done since we drafted Allen. Before we drafted him, I thought if we drafted him, McCarron had a better chance to be our long term Franchise QB if we actually drafted him. Now that we've drafted him and I've been inundating myself with as much as I could with Allen's personal and football background, I think he's the odds on favorite to be the starter Week #1... and the reasons above are a few of the reasons I've had in my mind.

Yeah... don't know who in the world could have seen Allen as the guy getting the most hype.

You actually know who the top 5 members in rep points are? Maybe more importantly... you actually care who the top 5 are? ---------->>>