transplantbillsfan

Hunh????

I dunno... maybe you're a Patriots fan trolling a Bills message board? The season will come and the season will determine (or should I say, help to determine) what exactly we have in Allen. But it's certainly not a bad thing that Allen appears to be getting glowing reviews from his teammates and coaches. And it hasn't been excuses so much with Allen as it has been getting to know the prospect and the story. Once you really dig into that deep enough, I think you find a reason to be hopeful. If you need some places to start, look at his rookie story done by Hyundai (7-8 minutes), his PBS interview on the eve of his first game last season (about 30 minutes) and the 5 part story Tim Graham did for the Buffalo News titled "You Bloom Where You're Planted: The Making of Josh Allen." After that, go watch the college games from the perspective of the talent around him and how much protection he gets. And look at the way he throws the football and just ask yourself "does this guy look like a natural passer?" You can compare the way he throws to a guy like EJ Manuel, who was clearly a very unnatural passer. Do all those things and come back and tell us we all need to stop being so excited about the highest QB prospect we've ever drafted... and we traded up for him, so clearly we (we obviously meaning the Bills organization) really like him. Until then...

My 180 is with regard to Josh Allen, yes. Absolutely. It wasn't just stats so much as historical trends where a combination of his poor college production at a small school against crappy competition is a historical lack of success for those guys in the NFL when drafted in the 1st or 2nd round. I was under the impression from your post I responded to that when you were talking about the 180 that everyone is doing in terms of the importance of stats vs the importance of eye test. And you brought in the Taylor supporters doing a complete 180 because of their love of stats and their now seeming dismissal of them. Is that not the 180 you were referring to there? If it is, again, that's not me, and I bet it's fewer posters than you claimed.

And to give credit to the OP here: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/206099-josh-allen-is-blowing-people-away-chris-simms/ At the 40:26 mark they start talking Allen. Simms claims a source in the media and in the organization and says the kid is just blowing the team away right now, to the point that when the defense isn't lined up practicing they're standing on the sideline watching Allen sling it.

It's not exactly a 180 as much as it is understanding the inadequacy of PFF as an evaluation of college prospects. I think "Prospect" is the operative word, because it's a word with implications all about the future, not the present. PFF is good (not perfect, but good) for discussing the efficiency and effectiveness of a QB's play now, in the present, but it's not good in terms of projecting something like a college QB into a completely new environment surrounded by completely different talent playing against completely different competition in the future. So this whole podcast discussion thing is probably pretty accurate in terms of discussing Josh Allen as a College QB when the College Football season ended. But that's what it's limited to. It puts 100% value in the plays made on the field in college and evaluates them as they are right there at that moment. That's great if you're a college football fan and you want to examine how effective your QB is for your favorite college football team right now. But that's not what the draft is about and it's the entire reason that during the offseason you have the Senior Bowl to the Combine to Pro-Days to Private Workouts to etc. It's also the reason that a lot of GMs send their underlings out to get intel from friends, family, acquaintances, coaches, etc. The play on the field in college does matter, to some degree, but it's a significantly more gray area than it is in the NFL, where PFF's evaluation works because it's merely evaluating the play of those guys in the here and now, and that's significantly more important (if not solely important) because who gives a crap about the other stuff as long as he can come and play on Sundays? I really can't speak for anyone else, but I haven't done a 180 myself. I think PFF is interesting and can be useful, but not as much in terms of an apples to apples translation of how a QB is in college equaling how a QB will be in the NFL, which is pretty much all they seem to do without factoring in anything other than the results (or near results) of all the plays in college in terms of the football itself... where it begins and where it ends. Eye test matters and so do stats. But stats carry a heavier weight in the here and now of the NFL and the eye test carries a heavier weight in the projection of college prospects transitioning from the college game to the NFL.

Luck always plays a role in the #6 seed getting in the playoffs, to a large degree. Hell, it always plays a role in at least a win or two (probably more) to a significant degree. That's why the NFL is so damn fun to watch. Yeah, we lucked into the playoffs a bit, but really not any more than the #6 seed does in any given year, it's just the timing of our luck that makes everyone believe we lucked into the playoffs so much more than other teams when, in reality, we didn't.

Not that I have a link because it was just on tonight and not that his opinion matters a ton because he's merely a former Giants OL, but on NFL Total Access tonight Sean O'hara was asked which 2018 Rookie QB would have the most success this year... he quickly and definitively said it'd be Josh Allen and gave some reasons behind it.

I'm not going to discredit PFF with regard to their evaluation of NFL players. I think they have a generally interesting system as far as that goes. And although that system is not without its flaws, it is evaluating players performance already in the NFL. Like it's here and now. It's not about projecting. It seems like they just tend to use the same system they use in the NFL to evaluate college players, which is incredibly problematic considering drafting college players is entirely about projections. I'm not saying that college play doesn't matter. It does. And I actually have shared the same concerns about Allen based on his college performance as PFF brings up here. If you're going by historical tendencies or college production, Alan will absolutely not have success in the NFL. However, he's also going to be the ultimate test subject of scouting versus Analytics and personally, having really dived deep into his personal background and upbringing and late-blooming physical stature and work ethic and simply watching tons of his college passes and thinking he looks like a natural passer of the football and so on, I think we can throw their college evaluation out the window. They felt almost exactly the same way about the Edmunds pick as they did the Allen pick. So even they acknowledge (and kinda cover their butts) that the Bills were drafting clearly on potential, which contradicts a little of what Beane said post-draft in his apparent criticism of the media presenting Allen as "raw."

There it is... thanks 26CB

And nothing says he won't or can't jump to #1, either, just because he's #3 right now. -Derek Carr in his rookie year wasn't named the #2 on the depth chart until he entered Training Camp. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/derek-carr-to-enter-training-camp-as-raiders-no-2-qb-behind-matt-schaub/ He eventually won the #1 job. -EJ Manuel was #3 on the depth chart in his rookie year. We all know that, largely thanks to a mat, he ended up landing the #1 job. -Or how about the headline end of July of 2016... at the beginning of Training Camp already https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/eagles-coach-sam-bradford-is-still-our-starter-carson-wentz-is-third-string/ Eagles coach: Sam Bradford is still our starter, Carson Wentz is third string We all know how that ended up. -Bridgewater in 2014 as OTAs began... https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/teddy-bridgewater-impresses-vikings/story?id=23761909 Although he reiterated that Bridgewater currently is third on the Vikings' depth chart at quarterback, Zimmer told reporters Friday that he wants the former Louisville star to get some work in with the first-team offense during OTAs, which begin May 28. Who won that one again? The idea of highly drafted rookie QBs starting #3 on the depth chart isn't exactly all that new or unique. And it's not an indicator that said QB won't be the starter at the beginning of the upcoming season. Baker Mayfield, the #1 overall pick this year, is #3 on the depth chart. Sam Darnold hasn't been officially named #3, but he's probably the only rookie with not one, but two very capable NFL starters in front of him. And yep, you're right, Beane said Allen is #3 on the depth chart. Beane also said, after drafting Allen, that "A lot of these guys did not come across to us as what was nationally reported about them. I don't think that's a fair label to give him is 'raw.'" http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2018/04/2018_nfl_draft_brandon_beane_says_josh_allen_wasnt_the_buffalo_bills_only_choice.html 3rd on the depth chart really just doesn't mean all that much. It doesn't mean Allen doesn't need to earn it, but it also doesn't mean it would take some kind of Herculean effort on his part to overcome some kind of improbable feat. And considering we have on our team literally the least amount of NFL starting experience at the position, I don't think Allen leapfrogging two relatively inexperienced QBs to grasp the #1 spot isn't a longshot in any way.

Special request... if anyone posts spoilers... could you give those of us who haven't seen it a "Spoiler Alert" warning? I already accidentally read one plot spoiler in this thread.

I can separate it from the Star Wars franchise in a lot of ways, as long as whatever it does try to tie in generally makes sense. I understand that this is really only supposed to be a tangent to the Star Wars storyline and, from what I've heard, is more light-hearted and humorous than the other Star Wars films (which makes sense, considering the character) and more of a caper film. Does it pull those things off pretty well? If it does, I should be happy. I thought Rogue One was maybe the best Star Wars movie since the original 3 films. I'm a little frustrated with the way the new franchise is approaching Kylo Ren. But then again, no villain could ever truly live up to Vader.

I really really liked Rogue One... maybe more than the newest 2 Star Wars movies in the series. How does Solo compare with that?

Aren't we in week 2 of OTAs and isn't it today, May 29th through Thursday, May 30th? C'mon 26CB!!! You're slacking!!! Change your title!

Tyrod Taylor and Tom Brady are outliers. Isn't that obvious? Plus, Brady only saw the field due to injury and Taylor was really the dark horse of a QB competition and came out ahead of a former 1st round bust who had been given the previous 2 years to bloom. Same thing happened with Kurt Warner. Same thing even happened, to an extent, with Russell Wilson. Mid round QBs typically need a great deal more luck to get a shot than 1st round QBs and are also typically on a much shorter leash. Look, I am not rooting against McCarron, but the fact that some are talking about him like he's the incumbent or like he's earned his year as the #1 already is just strange. Like I said, McCarron might win, I just think the odds are more in Allen's favor than McCarron's.

Didn't realize there were idiots here doing something childish like reporting posts every day. Pretty sad. I can guess who a couple of them are, though.

I just don't think the fact that a guy who was a 5th round draft pick has been waiting for an opportunity to start means all that much. So what? Hasn't that happened countless times with other mid to late round draft picks? How often have those draft picks gotten their opportunity and been really successful? Yes, McCarron played well in his 4 NFL starts and roughly 170 meaningful NFL pass attempts, but viewing McCarron as the favorite in the eyes of a coaching staff that put a ton of time and effort into getting to know Josh Allen the person and player as a guy who they (mainly McDermott) would be coaching for the next 10-15 years. The fact that Allen is #3 on the depth chart at this moment would be meaningful if Allen were reportedly being talked of as being out of any competition for the #1 spot because that spot has already been named and/or he were reportedly struggling already at the very early stages of OTAs, similarly to Mayfield in Cleveland. But he's not. Allen is reportedly performing pretty well and is really really being talked up by both Beane and McDermott.

Exactly. He's #3 right now because he's the youngest statesman and has ZERO NFL experience. In a locker room where you need to earn your job the way McDermott has this set up, it only makes sense for Allen to start out as the #3. That doesn't mean he's staying there long or that McDermott expects him to. If I were to guess, I'd say he's getting his fair share of team #1 reps by the end of the Mandatory Minicamp, if not sooner. And another thing, presenting this as a simple stepladder may be a silly way to view this QB competition. Allen may never even be called "the #2," and yet under the obviously watchful eyes of McDermott and Dabol (just look at reports of how much one-on-one Dabol was doing with Allen at BOTH rookie minicamp AND OTAs) he might be named the #1 at whatever point because he's always pretty clearly being evaluated.

Wow, so you don't actually think Allen being #3 at the start of OTAs is purely symbolic? I do. I think no one QB is really ahead of any other solely because this is a brand new offense for all 3 of them. But you legitimately believe McCarron and Peterman are significantly ahead of Allen and that the #1 is really going to come down to Peterman or McCarron because Allen would have to leapfrog too many and it would stretch the competition too long? I totally disagree, but respect your opinion. I also disagree with how much you minimize Training Camp and how much weight you put in preseason games. One thing I think all Bills fans should have learned in the offseason QB competition of 2015 was how much more Training Camp matters than Preseason games. EJ Manuel was the best QB on the field in the 2015 preseason and it didn't seem to mean squat.

Allen has a 5% chance of starting game #1??? Is that what you legitimately believe or are you trolling me here?

Yes... I remember lots of talk of Groy being a potential upgrade on Wood. Dawkins, Bodine, Groy, Miller, Mills... That's what I think our OL will ultimately consist of, with Groy or Bodine being the Center and the other being a Guard. I think our OL will be just fine, honestly.

Okay... so is this you trying to say they've already chosen McCarron as the starter in order to "get ahead?" Not trying to be a jerk, I'm just missing your point. Dabol said he has a plan for Allen, maybe that entails Allen starting right away

And...? What point are you trying to make?

This should be OBVIOUS!!! It's weird because a couple posters seem to be twisting my words so that I believe Allen should start no matter what and that, in fact, couldn't be further from the truth. I believe McDermott (not Joe Shmoe TBD message board guy) should make the decision to start the guy McDermott (not Joe Shmoe TBD message board guy) watches every day this offseason through OTAs/Minicamp/Training Camp/Preseason on the team McDermott (not Joe Shmoe TBD message board guy) knows the ins and outs of in terms of weaknesses by position and has coached for a year and will be coaching this year ONLY IF HE FEELS JOSH ALLEN 1) Wins the QB competition 2) Gives the team the best opportunity to win 3) Won't get destroyed in his rookie year physically, mentally or emotionally due to an unmitigated lack of sufficient NFL talent surrounding him If those 3 benchmarks aren't met, I don't think McDermott will start Allen and I don't think he should. But the fact that the biggest argument for not starting him and keeping him on the bench is #3 is, to me, pretty revealing, because I think #3 is the least likely to be the deciding factor. Seems a lot of the people who voted "McCarron" also believe Allen will be the best QB this offseason, but our OL and WRs suck too much. I think our WRs are already better than last year just with a healthy Benjamin and our OL simply swapped Wood and Incognito for Groy and Bodine. Considering how much there have already been undercurrents among fans to see Groy replace Wood and Bodine is an NFL starter, plus John Miller and the 5th round G we drafted from Iowa along with an improved Dawkins... I think our OL very well might improve significantly from last year. But Allen is mobile and elusive, anyway, which might be better for an average OL. But these are McDermott's decisions to make, not Joe Shmoe TBD message board guy. Personally, I just believe McDermott (not Joe Shmoe TBD message board guy), being the guy who will be watching Allen compete in practice against one QB who he watched last year be one of the worst QBs in the history of the NFL for his 1st start and end the season with one of the worst noodle-armed passes I've ever seen and another QB who has 4 career starts and 170 NFL passes who Beane and McDermott thought so highly of they waited until day 3 of Free Agency to sign him and fill a position they were clearly bent on upgrading on in the draft, will watch those 2 guys fall short and Allen will be the clear winner. That's all. That's actually how I feel. It's not me trolling or having a laugh, as someone accused me of earlier.