transplantbillsfan

I would be both excited and nervous if we traded up for BTJ. Honestly though... I'd be both excited and nervous for almost any WR we draft in any round simply because of the inevitable pressure on them to immediately step in and produce. However, I would be just excited if we traded up for Odunze. For some reason he's the only one where it's just excitement. Some nerves would creep back in even if we traded up for Nabers, even though I know he might have the highest ceiling in the draft. I'm not even thinking about MHJ. Absolutely not true with Joe Marino.

No we aren't... our salary cap situation is at its lowest this offseason and will get significantly better from here on out. He played QB as a Senior

You're using the Senior Bowl as a measuring stick? He played in the SEC and destroyed his competition at South Carolina in 2023. The one-year-wonder conversation is more nuanced. There were a lot of circumstances involved with that, including a late shift to the position and a motorcycle accident, among other things. I'm not advocating a trade up. But I'd be happy with him at 28.

Can I ask you guys why you think Xavier Leggette is so clearly not a 1st rounder?

Yeah, I listened this morning thinking he'd go through the players, but he didn't. Still, it was good to listen to it first and then look at the document to view all the players themselves. @GunnerBill also has Leggette as his 4th WR, from what I can remember. Plus, there's been a lot of talk among the media that Leggette could slip into round 1. What that likely means is that while the national media has one perspective on him, NFL teams have another.

You can watch the episode with his explanation of it here, but right below the video I posted the link to his Google Doc that shows both his horizontal and vertical draft boards. As he says in the video, the horizontal one may be most interesting and relevant because it breaks players down into tiers.: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d6y5YK7S5pN8WgqF5t6qJSvpyQsA44hDkts8hPHDDSs/htmlview# He only did 170 players this year because he only had 5 months to do it, unlike previous years where he does it year round. Might be a good tool to look at on draft night.

But he specifically said in his first years (plural) in Buffalo he was coached to run while talking about his excitement of a scheme by Joe Brady to get him more outlets on the field in the passing game. He may not have directly stated he was coached to run in recent years, but at best it sounds like he believed the passing scheme itself didn't provide enough realistic opportunities in the passing game, forcing him to run.

Shaw, listen to Allen’s PC the other day. In fact, skip to the last few minutes he talks about Joe Brady and what he's excited about. Allen directly says he was coached previously to run. It's revealing. Go listen because it completely contradicts this belief.

This criticism of Buffalo’s roster is overblown. It's funny... The Athletic came out with an article the other day ranking all 32 NFL rosters ahead of the draft. 4. Buffalo Bills This one makes me a little uneasy, but like Mahomes and the Chiefs, an elite QB (Josh Allen) erases a lot of roster issues. The Bills have had to part with some quality players this offseason, but there are enough solid pieces still around to not panic. The Bills should be mimicking the Chiefs’ plan of the last few years while building around Mahomes and focusing on drafting the best available player at a premier position in the first round. They also have traded away their top wide receiver (Stefon Diggs), similar to what the Chiefs did a few years ago with Tyreek Hill.

This criticism of Buffalo’s roster is overblown. It's funny... The Athletic came out with an article the other day ranking all 32 NFL rosters ahead of the draft. 4. Buffalo Bills This one makes me a little uneasy, but like Mahomes and the Chiefs, an elite QB (Josh Allen) erases a lot of roster issues. The Bills have had to part with some quality players this offseason, but there are enough solid pieces still around to not panic. The Bills should be mimicking the Chiefs’ plan of the last few years while building around Mahomes and focusing on drafting the best available player at a premier position in the first round. They also have traded away their top wide receiver (Stefon Diggs), similar to what the Chiefs did a few years ago with Tyreek Hill.

Daquan is on a 2 year deal. And he's been EXTREMELY durable throughout his career, including his first year with Buffalo.

I guarantee the argument will be that the Falcons didn't win a Super Bowl. I agree it's a completely ridiculous argument. And this resource argument some are making also neglects the potential in a cost-controlled CHEAP #1 WR (the 2nd most expensive position) for at least 4 years. That $$$ savings should be part of the resource argument as well. Remember... Buffalo is going to suddenly get a lot more CAP space in future years and Free Agency is another aspect of team building. Plus... 10 draft picks this year + 9 draft picks next year after our comp picks. Worse case scenario is the 2011 trade model for Julio Jones. Falcons traded their 2011 1st, 2nd, 4th & 2012 1st & 4th. This would still leave us with 7 total picks in this year's draft and next year's draft. Plus, next year's draft we'd still have 2 2nd rounders... one of which very well might be in the early to late 30s. That one is I think the steepest price, though. I think the Lions trade up for Jameson Williams and the Chiefs trade up for Mahomes are other models to look at that might be even better.

Correlative, not causal. Are you really trying to argue that the Bengals are not winning a Super Bowl because they drafted Jamarr Chase? Has it been CeDee Lamb holding back the Cowboys over the last few years? That the Falcons didn't win the Super Bowl because they drafted Julio Jones? That Drake London is holding the Falcons back right now or Garrett Wilson is doing the same for the Jets? It's the QB, first and foremost, who's obviously the most critical piece to any team winning the Super Bowl. Buffalo has their QB for the next 5-10+ years. When did Josh Allen turn into an Elite QB? Obviously (and Josh directly said this yesterday) it happened once he got an Elite WR in Diggs. What do we no longer have??? You alluded to me not being a Bills fan and just being a Josh Allen fan... that's pretty rich coming from the guy who really doesn't do anything on this message board other than drop grenades and plant landmines all over the place. I'm absolutely not without my flaws, but you painted me so horribly wrong. If anything, I'm a Bills homer with Bills colored glasses. I know how that's how some see me and I'm fine with it. Your assessment just proves you're not very observant... or maybe you just let your anger cloud your judgment too much.

Another point... while I mention "hits..." all that really means is that you have a pretty decent starter. We're hoping for more than a decent starter, though. We want a WR who can be a pro-bowler if not an All-Pro, right? I've been thinking a bit about this since I started the thread, because I think the reality is we all want a DUDE at WR, not a JAG. So I googled it to see if there was any data out there. Found this on a reddit board and it looks like someone else actually did the work. I cross-checked it and looks accurate. If you go back several years to give WRs over the span of 2000-2017 (18 years total), here are Pro Bowl %s for those years slotted by draft pick in the top 100: Pick/ Pro-Bowl% 1-10/ 55% 11-20/ 44% 21-30/ 33% 31-40/ 24% 41-50/ 18% 51-60/ 16% 61-70/ 16% 71-80/ 9% 81-90/ 10% 91-100/ 12% Plus, The Athletic examined it over a span of 10 years a couple years ago by round and position https://theathletic.com/3242308/2022/04/13/nfl-draft-analysis-2022/ Wide Receivers only 1st round 42.4% 2nd-3rd round 36.4% 4+ round 21.2%

I concede you have an interesting theory. Lots of early 2nd rounders are productive NFL players. I just went all the way back to 2010. It really falls back into scrubs. And other than the 4 you mentioned here, while a good number of early 2nd rounders are hits, few to none outside the 4 guys you just mentioned are stars to superstars. Gotta go top 3 WRs for that.

Mmmhmmmm.... remember this Thurm when talking about QBs having an Elite weapon in almost all of the last 5 Super Bowls... both winners and losers???? @Thurman#1"Kupp the year the Rams won. Top ten surely, but not elite. 1161 yards is damn good, 9th in the league among WRs that year, but not elite." Love the way you ran away from that conversation right after me calling you out on Kupp, Evans and Kelce not being Elite. I see that you keep responding to me... maybe I'll read them, but right now...

Guys... can someone find Thurm's sponsor... he's clearly losing it

⁰ I said drafting one of the first 3 WRs. In 2019 Deebo was #3 Interesting perspective, but honest question, do you really think it we keep going back 15-20 years that trend keeps up? We can take the time to do it as long as you acknowledge your flawed premise. Of course I'd do the same. I didn't include Ruggs as a hit, so why does the fact that I brought it up make you so upset? I actually think listing those QBs works against you

The fact that you tried to make a guy who was an All-Pro twice as a punt returner really says everything here. If you're going to make an argument, don't reach. We need a #1 or #2 WR... not a punt returner. Focus on that

What a terrible example! At least use the 2011 Julio Jones trade. That's worse case scenario. Also look at the Mahomes and Jameson Williams trade up. Good grief at least be a little more realistic with your examples.

There... I fixed it for you with the bolded. Buffalo at this moment only has 2 true NEEDS on the team. A WR and RB for the roster. The rest of the things you had there arenwants... McBeane may disagree. You said Center. Did you think Beane was lying about McGovern shifting to Center? You said Safety. That's just a want on your part. We have 2 Safeties on the team who have started many NFL games and 2 backups who have been in the system for a while. You also neglected the $10m CAP space we get June 1st.

So funny story... my eyes are apparently going bad and sometimes I look at these posts on my 8 inch tablet. I make the text bigger, which cuts off usernames. It's kinda nice because I read every post without bias against the name. As soon as I got to the bolded line, I knew it would be only a couple posters... you were one of them

Actually... you'd be better getting one of the top 3 WRs in the draft than either of those scenarios. Diana Russini posted an article going back a few weeks ago that goes back 13 years. Top 3 WR has the highest hit %.

Again... hindsight is 20/20 here. You can say this yourself, but 2021 was viewed as a deep class. I didn't just look at the hit rate from one draft. I looked at the hit rate of 5 drafts. And someone just asked me to add in 1996, which was labelled as "ridiculous." 1st round looks like an 80% hit rate... arguably 100%. 2nd and 3rd rounds... well... why don't you tell us who the hits are. TO???? Absolutely! Ahmani Toomer & Muhsin Muhammed? Yep! That's 37.5%. Better than the other years I looked at, but there's a wider gap now between the 1st round and 2nd & 3rd round WRs. Anyone else in that draft from 2nd and 3rd round that year that would bring that up more? Go find a draft where this doesn't play out. Sure seems like my original premise is correct.

Okay... but I think it just solidifies my point further. 1st round 1 1 NYJ Keyshawn Johnson 1 7 NWE Terry Glenn 1 18 STL Eddie Kennison 1 19 IND Marvin Harrison HOF 1 24 BUF Eric Moulds 2nd & 3rd round 2 31 NYJ Alex Van ***** 2 34 NYG Amani Toomer 2 41 SDG Bryan Still 2 43 CAR Muhsin Muhammad 2 52 CHI Bobby Engram 2 56 GNB Derrick Mayes 3 89 SFO Terrell Owens HOF 3 94 DAL Stepfret Williams