transplantbillsfan

But he specifically said in his first years (plural) in Buffalo he was coached to run while talking about his excitement of a scheme by Joe Brady to get him more outlets on the field in the passing game. He may not have directly stated he was coached to run in recent years, but at best it sounds like he believed the passing scheme itself didn't provide enough realistic opportunities in the passing game, forcing him to run.

Shaw, listen to Allen’s PC the other day. In fact, skip to the last few minutes he talks about Joe Brady and what he's excited about. Allen directly says he was coached previously to run. It's revealing. Go listen because it completely contradicts this belief.

This criticism of Buffalo’s roster is overblown. It's funny... The Athletic came out with an article the other day ranking all 32 NFL rosters ahead of the draft. 4. Buffalo Bills This one makes me a little uneasy, but like Mahomes and the Chiefs, an elite QB (Josh Allen) erases a lot of roster issues. The Bills have had to part with some quality players this offseason, but there are enough solid pieces still around to not panic. The Bills should be mimicking the Chiefs’ plan of the last few years while building around Mahomes and focusing on drafting the best available player at a premier position in the first round. They also have traded away their top wide receiver (Stefon Diggs), similar to what the Chiefs did a few years ago with Tyreek Hill.

This criticism of Buffalo’s roster is overblown. It's funny... The Athletic came out with an article the other day ranking all 32 NFL rosters ahead of the draft. 4. Buffalo Bills This one makes me a little uneasy, but like Mahomes and the Chiefs, an elite QB (Josh Allen) erases a lot of roster issues. The Bills have had to part with some quality players this offseason, but there are enough solid pieces still around to not panic. The Bills should be mimicking the Chiefs’ plan of the last few years while building around Mahomes and focusing on drafting the best available player at a premier position in the first round. They also have traded away their top wide receiver (Stefon Diggs), similar to what the Chiefs did a few years ago with Tyreek Hill.

Daquan is on a 2 year deal. And he's been EXTREMELY durable throughout his career, including his first year with Buffalo.

I guarantee the argument will be that the Falcons didn't win a Super Bowl. I agree it's a completely ridiculous argument. And this resource argument some are making also neglects the potential in a cost-controlled CHEAP #1 WR (the 2nd most expensive position) for at least 4 years. That $$$ savings should be part of the resource argument as well. Remember... Buffalo is going to suddenly get a lot more CAP space in future years and Free Agency is another aspect of team building. Plus... 10 draft picks this year + 9 draft picks next year after our comp picks. Worse case scenario is the 2011 trade model for Julio Jones. Falcons traded their 2011 1st, 2nd, 4th & 2012 1st & 4th. This would still leave us with 7 total picks in this year's draft and next year's draft. Plus, next year's draft we'd still have 2 2nd rounders... one of which very well might be in the early to late 30s. That one is I think the steepest price, though. I think the Lions trade up for Jameson Williams and the Chiefs trade up for Mahomes are other models to look at that might be even better.

Correlative, not causal. Are you really trying to argue that the Bengals are not winning a Super Bowl because they drafted Jamarr Chase? Has it been CeDee Lamb holding back the Cowboys over the last few years? That the Falcons didn't win the Super Bowl because they drafted Julio Jones? That Drake London is holding the Falcons back right now or Garrett Wilson is doing the same for the Jets? It's the QB, first and foremost, who's obviously the most critical piece to any team winning the Super Bowl. Buffalo has their QB for the next 5-10+ years. When did Josh Allen turn into an Elite QB? Obviously (and Josh directly said this yesterday) it happened once he got an Elite WR in Diggs. What do we no longer have??? You alluded to me not being a Bills fan and just being a Josh Allen fan... that's pretty rich coming from the guy who really doesn't do anything on this message board other than drop grenades and plant landmines all over the place. I'm absolutely not without my flaws, but you painted me so horribly wrong. If anything, I'm a Bills homer with Bills colored glasses. I know how that's how some see me and I'm fine with it. Your assessment just proves you're not very observant... or maybe you just let your anger cloud your judgment too much.

Another point... while I mention "hits..." all that really means is that you have a pretty decent starter. We're hoping for more than a decent starter, though. We want a WR who can be a pro-bowler if not an All-Pro, right? I've been thinking a bit about this since I started the thread, because I think the reality is we all want a DUDE at WR, not a JAG. So I googled it to see if there was any data out there. Found this on a reddit board and it looks like someone else actually did the work. I cross-checked it and looks accurate. If you go back several years to give WRs over the span of 2000-2017 (18 years total), here are Pro Bowl %s for those years slotted by draft pick in the top 100: Pick/ Pro-Bowl% 1-10/ 55% 11-20/ 44% 21-30/ 33% 31-40/ 24% 41-50/ 18% 51-60/ 16% 61-70/ 16% 71-80/ 9% 81-90/ 10% 91-100/ 12% Plus, The Athletic examined it over a span of 10 years a couple years ago by round and position https://theathletic.com/3242308/2022/04/13/nfl-draft-analysis-2022/ Wide Receivers only 1st round 42.4% 2nd-3rd round 36.4% 4+ round 21.2%

I concede you have an interesting theory. Lots of early 2nd rounders are productive NFL players. I just went all the way back to 2010. It really falls back into scrubs. And other than the 4 you mentioned here, while a good number of early 2nd rounders are hits, few to none outside the 4 guys you just mentioned are stars to superstars. Gotta go top 3 WRs for that.

Mmmhmmmm.... remember this Thurm when talking about QBs having an Elite weapon in almost all of the last 5 Super Bowls... both winners and losers???? @Thurman#1"Kupp the year the Rams won. Top ten surely, but not elite. 1161 yards is damn good, 9th in the league among WRs that year, but not elite." Love the way you ran away from that conversation right after me calling you out on Kupp, Evans and Kelce not being Elite. I see that you keep responding to me... maybe I'll read them, but right now...

Guys... can someone find Thurm's sponsor... he's clearly losing it

⁰ I said drafting one of the first 3 WRs. In 2019 Deebo was #3 Interesting perspective, but honest question, do you really think it we keep going back 15-20 years that trend keeps up? We can take the time to do it as long as you acknowledge your flawed premise. Of course I'd do the same. I didn't include Ruggs as a hit, so why does the fact that I brought it up make you so upset? I actually think listing those QBs works against you

The fact that you tried to make a guy who was an All-Pro twice as a punt returner really says everything here. If you're going to make an argument, don't reach. We need a #1 or #2 WR... not a punt returner. Focus on that

What a terrible example! At least use the 2011 Julio Jones trade. That's worse case scenario. Also look at the Mahomes and Jameson Williams trade up. Good grief at least be a little more realistic with your examples.

There... I fixed it for you with the bolded. Buffalo at this moment only has 2 true NEEDS on the team. A WR and RB for the roster. The rest of the things you had there arenwants... McBeane may disagree. You said Center. Did you think Beane was lying about McGovern shifting to Center? You said Safety. That's just a want on your part. We have 2 Safeties on the team who have started many NFL games and 2 backups who have been in the system for a while. You also neglected the $10m CAP space we get June 1st.

So funny story... my eyes are apparently going bad and sometimes I look at these posts on my 8 inch tablet. I make the text bigger, which cuts off usernames. It's kinda nice because I read every post without bias against the name. As soon as I got to the bolded line, I knew it would be only a couple posters... you were one of them

Actually... you'd be better getting one of the top 3 WRs in the draft than either of those scenarios. Diana Russini posted an article going back a few weeks ago that goes back 13 years. Top 3 WR has the highest hit %.

Again... hindsight is 20/20 here. You can say this yourself, but 2021 was viewed as a deep class. I didn't just look at the hit rate from one draft. I looked at the hit rate of 5 drafts. And someone just asked me to add in 1996, which was labelled as "ridiculous." 1st round looks like an 80% hit rate... arguably 100%. 2nd and 3rd rounds... well... why don't you tell us who the hits are. TO???? Absolutely! Ahmani Toomer & Muhsin Muhammed? Yep! That's 37.5%. Better than the other years I looked at, but there's a wider gap now between the 1st round and 2nd & 3rd round WRs. Anyone else in that draft from 2nd and 3rd round that year that would bring that up more? Go find a draft where this doesn't play out. Sure seems like my original premise is correct.

Okay... but I think it just solidifies my point further. 1st round 1 1 NYJ Keyshawn Johnson 1 7 NWE Terry Glenn 1 18 STL Eddie Kennison 1 19 IND Marvin Harrison HOF 1 24 BUF Eric Moulds 2nd & 3rd round 2 31 NYJ Alex Van ***** 2 34 NYG Amani Toomer 2 41 SDG Bryan Still 2 43 CAR Muhsin Muhammad 2 52 CHI Bobby Engram 2 56 GNB Derrick Mayes 3 89 SFO Terrell Owens HOF 3 94 DAL Stepfret Williams

So give us some historically deep draft classes. I feel like you're using some revisionist history here so I'll call your bluff. The 2021 and 2020 classes were also considered deep. Just look back at some of the narrative from the 2021 class alone: Excerpt from The Athletic regarding the 2021 top 20 WRs in the class: https://theathletic.com/2405616/2021/02/24/top-20-receivers-for-2021-nfl-draft-jamarr-chase-jaylen-waddle-top-talented-class/ The volume of talent at receiver rivals last year’s, which set a record with 13 receivers drafted in the first two rounds. I don’t think this year’s group will break that mark. But I do believe this class will have more receivers drafted in the top three rounds than last year’s class (15). From PFF regarding the 2021 class: https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-ranking-wide-receiver-prospects-lsu-jamarr-chase The sheer depth is also incredible. For the second year in a row, several receivers will be selected in the first round, and they will be joined by a host of impact rookies taken on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft, such is the array of talent available. Sound familiar?

5 years of drafting in round 1 separated from 5 years of drafting in rounds 2 & 3. It's just round they were drafted and the order they were drafted. 1st Round Wide Receivers 2023 1 SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba 1 LAC Quentin Johnston 1 BAL Zay Flowers 1 MIN Jordan Addison 2022 1 ATL Drake London 1 NYJ Garrett Wilson 1 NOR Chris Olave 1 DET Jameson Williams 1 WAS Jahan Dotson 1 TEN Treylon Burks 2021 1 CIN Ja'Marr Chase 1 MIA Jaylen Waddle 1 PHI DeVonta Smith 1 NYG Kadarius Toney 1 BAL Rashod Bateman 2020 1 LVR Henry Ruggs III 1 DEN Jerry JeudyWR 1 DAL CeeDee Lamb 1 PHI Jalen Reagor 1 MIN Justin Jefferson 1 SFO Brandon Aiyuk 2019 1 BAL Marquise Brown 1 NWE N'Keal Harry 2nd & 3rd Round Wide Receivers 2023 2 CAR Jonathan Mingo 2 GB Jayden Reed 2 KC Rashee Rice 2 DEN Marvin Mims 3 HOU Nathaniel Dell 3 NYG Jalin Hyatt 3 CLE Cedric Tillman 3 IND Josh Downs 3 ARI Michael Wilson 3 LVR Tre Tucker 2022 2 GNB Christian Watson 2 NYG Wan'Dale Robinson 2 HOU John Metchie 2 NWE Tyquan Thornton 2 PIT George Pickens 2 IND Alec Pierce 2 KAN Skyy Moore 3 CHI Velus Jones Jr. 3 DAL Jalen Tolbert 3 CLE David Bell 3 SFO Danny Gray 2021 2 NYJ Elijah Moore 2 ARI Rondale Moore 2 SEA D'Wayne Eskridge 2 LAR Tutu Atwell 2 CAR Terrace Marshall Jr. 3 LAC Josh Palmer 3 WAS Dyami Brown 3 GNB Amari Rodgers 3 HOU Nico Collins 3 CLE Anthony Schwartz 2020 2 CIN Tee Higgins 2 IND Michael Pittman Jr. 2 JAX Laviska Shenault Jr. 2 DEN KJ Hamler 2 PIT Chase Claypool 2 LAR Van Jefferson 2 NYJ Denzel Mims 3 LVR Lynn Bowden Jr. 3 LVR Bryan Edwards 3 BAL Devin Duvernay 2019 2 SFO Deebo Samuel 2 TEN A.J. Brown 2 KAN Mecole Hardman 2 PHI JJ Arcega-Whiteside 2 IND Parris Campbell 2 ARI Andy Isabella 2 SEA D.K. Metcalf 3 PIT Diontae Johnson 3 SFO Jalen Hurd 3 WAS Terry McLaurin 3 BAL Miles Boykin Bolded guys are hits... obviously in my opinion. 50% hit rate for round 1 over the last 5 years along with several I think we might qualify as TBD (JSN, Johnston, Williams) and the unfortunate situation of Ruggs who was actually on his way to being a hit. There's an even stronger argument for getting one of the top 3 guys in the draft. The hit rate there is 60%. If JSN & Johnston pan out, that hit rate goes up to 73%. If Ruggs didn't end up in prison and he continued on his upward trajectory in 2021, that hit rate for a top 3 Wide Receiver in the last 5 drafts goes up to 80%... think about that... 80% hit rate potentially over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WRs in the draft??? Rome Odunze, anyone???? Then you have the 2nd and 3rd round guys. 27% hit rate, very few TBDs (Mims, Hyatt... anyone else???) and a bunch of clear busts with some guys bouncing around the league if they're even still in it.

I strongly believe if Odunze falls out of the top 10 Beane is going to work some magic on the phones. Dude screams Buffalo.

So Diana Russini looked back at the last 13 years of draft classes to examine bust potential of 1st round WR in this article https://theathletic.com/5405843/2024/04/10/odds-a-first-round-wr-busts-scoop-city?source=user-shared-article It was objective. Here's the criteria: To sort stars, busts and everything in between, I looked at four criteria: Starts: Was the player good (and healthy) enough to start at least 50 career games? Production: Did he post two 1,000-yard seasons? No. 1 option: Has he seen 150-plus targets in any season? Paid: Did his team pick up his fifth-year option? Findings for WRs were 63% bust or reach in the 1st round and just 17.5% Superstar. However, that same criteria was also put to drafting a WR in the top 10 amd the bust or reach rate drops to 47% and the Superstar rate jumps to 29.4%. Much to the chagrin of @Thurman#1 this sure seems to support the idea of getting one of the Big 3. And what's fascinating is that while some *ahem* argue we can find great WRs in later rounds, listening to the "Move the Sticks" podcast today with Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks, they actually listed all the 2nd round draft picks from 2020-2022. Pretty terrible list. Go back and look at 2nd and 3rd round WRs drafted over the last 4 or 5 years compared to the 1st round and especially compared to WRs drafted top 10. Utterly forgettable.

Just went back and read this to humor you and still couldn't even make it to the end Bruh... what happened to you... your arguments used to be much stronger. Elite weapons are Elite weapons. Sounds like you define them by the stats they have in the year your labeling them while simultaneously neglecting the fact that Cooper Kupp had one of the best seasons by a WR in NFL history the year the Rams won the Super Bowl. Mike Evans and Travis Kelce are 1st ballot HOFers. Are you #^%@ing serious??? Plus there's the whole Godwin and Gronk thing when Brady won with the Bucs.

Resorting to ad hominem now?