Logic

I'm trying to get a feel for where Bills fans stand on this issue this morning. Simple Yes or No question.

My best guess: 1.) Josh has the weight of the world on his shoulders. From 13 seconds, to a massive extension and commercials and the cover of Madden, to being Super Bowl favorites last year and all that happened, to this season. I don't think that people can imagine what the type of adulation and hero worship that Bills fans foist on Allen can do to a person. 2.) With the sky high expectations mentioned above, McDermott's coaching style, and the offense not gelling under Dorsey, I think Josh (and other players) have stopped having fun. And the worse things have gotten this season, the more it's snowballed. They all feel tremendous pressure to get it right, and the more they have continued NOT to get it right, the more the "not having fun, trying too hard" effect has snowballed and built on itself. The bottom line is this: Firing Dorsey was a good and necessary first step. Eliminate a variable. Put the crosshairs solely on the head coach. But in all likelihood, only one thing will fully save Josh Allen and restore the fun-loving, free-wheeling player (and team) we all miss seeing: A fresh start. A new chapter. Close the books on the Sean McDermott era, on 13 seconds, on all of it. A new head coach, a completely new coaching staff. Preferably a young, innovative, upbeat offensive mind who can re-spark the passion in this team that it appears to direly need. I have always defended Sean McDermott, and I still doubt that he actually gets let go this offseason, but frankly, I've reached the point where I feel that it's what's needed. It's not that he's a bad coach, it's not that he's entirely at fault for everything that happened. It's just....it's time. It's time for a fresh start.

That's true, but with a competent OC in the booth last night, it would have never come down to the field goal at the end anyway.

Good. At least SOMETHING good came from this loss. I defended Dorsey for a long time, but it became wildly clear over the past few weeks that he needed to go. He just didn't have a feel for game flow, sequencing, or logical play-calling AT ALL. Last night was the final straw. Now the Bills have a seven game audition for Joe Brady, and then hopefully they hire a bright, young, innovative OC in the offseason, since I doubt McD is getting the ax.

It seems pretty simple: While not TECHNICALLY certain, a loss tonight would likely mean the end of the Bills' playoff chances. Dropping to 5-5, with games remaining against the Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, Eagles, and Dolphins, not to mention the Jets and Pats who have both already beaten them...it's hard to see how the Bills could lose more than two games the rest of the way and have any kind of shot at playoffs, and even 10-7 might not get it done with how stacked the AFC is. It doesn't matter, of course, because the Bills are gonna win tonight. But if somehow, some way, they don't? Stick a fork in 'em, they're done.

The Bills could add the love child of Usain Bolt and Roadrunner and Ken Dorsey would have him running 5 yard hitch routes and outs all game.

Not.

I feel like the Bills are markedly better on offense EVERY SINGLE TIME they go into hurry-up! It simplifies what defenses can do, it allows Josh more time to survey the defense pre-snap and make protection changes and audibles, and it probably means a bit more Josh and a bit less Dorsey, which we can all likely agree seems pretty appealing right about now. I understand all the talk about varying tempos, controlling the flow of the game, blah blah blah, but if you ask me, the Bills' base offense should be hurry-up no huddle unless and until opposing defenses routinely show they can stop it.

Now is not the time for logic and for reasoned analysis, my friend. Now is the time for pounding on lockers and crushing beer cans against one's cranium and shouting cliches and listening to pump-up songs and saying "LET'S F'N GOOOO" way too loudly to people who were just innocently walking by. IT'S GAME DAY, MOTHERFU*KER!!! (just kidding, do whatever you want, it's your life).

All the Bills need to do is go out and kick ass tonight. Not a "take it down to the wire" win, not a "take 5 years off the life of Bills fans" win, not a "play down to the level of our opponents" win. I'm talking a scorched earth, Josh Allen 4 TDs, Stefon Diggs 2 TDs, 41-20 ass whipping, with Kyle Allen taking snaps in the 4th quarter and Josh and Diggs joking around on the sidelines. Go do that on national TV, then do it again next week against the Jets, and the Bills will be 7-4, with a shot of much needed confidence and a big matchup looming at Philly before the bye week. "You can get it done, you can get it done. And what's more, you've GOTTA get it done!"

Yeah...I know it's not this simple, but...I'd be fine with the Bills shedding a bunch of age and salary cap from their defense in the offseason and going with a youth movement there. I think they have some nice younger building blocks/cornerstones in Ed Oliver, Groot, AJ Epenesa (if re-signed), Bernard, Milano, Benford, Dane Jackson, and Taron Johnson. And they can keep a couple "old" guys like Rasul Douglas and Daquan Jones if they want. But...I like the idea of getting younger, faster, fresher, and cheaper on defense, and re-investing some of that money into the offense instead. The Chiefs went this route, and now are in better salary cap shape than the Bills going forward (if I'm not mistaken), AND they have the better defense. It would be one thing if the Bills defense was still elite, but it's not. They're currently bottom 3 in DVOA AND they're old and beat up. Yes, I realize injuries have played a big part in their poor performance this season, but...the injury issue is just going to get worse before it gets better so long as the Bills are so old on defense. **Side note** I'm so jealous of the Chiefs' coaching situation. They have an elite offensive mind (and Hall of Famer) locked in as head coach for the long term, and one of the league's best defensive minds in Steve Spagnuolo to run the defense. And because Spags isn't a trendy young name and has already had his shot as head coach, he's not likely to get poached any time soon. Great coaching on both sides of the ball, and stability on both offense and defense because neither playcaller is going anywhere any time soon. Damn them.

Guessing Benford and Hyde don't go. They'll wanna be cautious with both. Rasul Douglas may be about to see a full game's worth of snaps. If Bernard can progress from Limited to Full tomorrow, he should be good. Otherwise, he might be down for the week, too. Diggs will be fine.

If they bring in a new offensive coordinator this offseason, I'd like it to be a fresh, new take on things. A new mind from outside the organization. Enough with the "promoting continuity" thing. I fully understand why that might seem desirable, what with not wanting Josh to have to learn a new system and new terminology and all, but...If you're canning Dorsey, it's an admission that things as they are structured now are simply not working. And if THAT'S the case, then it's time for something completely different. I won't pretend to know enough about the various candidates to be able to pick which one I'd like best, I'm just saying I'd opt for something completely new over promoting Brady or Shula. As for defensive coordinator, I think it's much more likely they'll promote a Bobby Babich or an Eric Washington. Though frankly, I'd be in favor of them bringing in a fresh new mind on defense, as well. That's less of a big deal, because you can still pick a 4-3, zone-based guy, if you don't want to have to overhaul your defensive personnel. If the GM, HC, and QB are staying, but we come to the conclusion that the team is regressing rather than progressing, then the only logical solution in my mind is a fresh start on offense and defense. Again, I'm not equipped at this moment to pick specific names, but..."promoting from within for the sake of continuity" no longer makes any sense in my opinion.

Username checks out.

Fair enough. Let's change the phrase to "late in the game when trailing", then. That's when the defense softens up a bit because it's trying to bleed the clock and prevent big plays. I think the overriding point is that when opposing defenses are playing the Bills "normally" throughout most of the game, the Bills offense is struggling. Once they soften up a bit at the end, the Bills offense comes to life. And even if you reject THAT notion -- even if you grant the benefit of the doubt and say opposing defenses are playing the Bills offense the same way throughout the entire game -- the question still needs to be asked: Why is the Bills offense not able to come to life and start having statistical success and production until they're behind on the scoreboard and reaching desperation mode? Why can't they "turn it on" in more neutral and early-game situations?

Buy: Linval Joseph. Looked amazing coming right off the couch and playing 42% of the snaps. Think he'll be a big help down the stretch. Sell: Dane Jackson. After he balled out last week, I think his stock is at an all time high. I expect him to soon lose his starting job to Rasul Douglas, and for the primary starting duo at CB to be Douglas/Benford for the stretch run. Hold: Von Miller. He's still not back to being the Von Miller of old. Every week he shows one or two flashes of that guy, though. If the Bills can find a way to get to the postseason, I think there's a chance he'll be "arriving" just in time. Following your lead, an alternative response: Buy: Tylenol and Prozac. Sell: The hotel room I booked in Vegas for Super Bowl week "Hold: My beer", say the Buffalo Bills to their fans when told "you can't frustrate us any more than you already have".

They have such a late bye week this year -- week 13, I believe? -- that I'm totally fine with them using the extra days for rest. I don't think lack of reps is what's hurting the Bills this year. At the very least, the opportunity cost of "extra rest" vs "extra reps" seems weighted toward the rest, in my opinion.

The most instructive response to this article, in my opinion, is the Tweet below. The Bills are achieving a lot of their "analytics success" on offense (EPA, DVOA, etc) in garbage time.

I agree with the notion that the Bills win the next two at home and go to Philly 7-4. Arguably, they'd need to win that game, too, to have a good chance after the bye, where they still have to play the Chiefs at Arrowhead, the Chargers on a west coast trip, the Cowboys, and the Dolphins in Miami -- not to mention the Pats, who already beat them once this season. If -- and given the way they've played lately, it's an enormous "if" -- they can find a way to win the next 3 and go into the bye week 8-4, I like their chances at playoffs. It's still possible with a Philly loss, too, but at 7-5, they could really only afford to lose one more game the rest of the year. But, of course...one week at a time. The Bills can hardly get out of their own way lately and the Broncos recently beat the Chiefs, so...this game isn't a gimme.

I'm gonna be honest with you. I have zero faith that this year's Bills would be able to string together the four good games in a row against quality opponents (three playoff games + Super Bowl) necessary to win a Lombardi. So yes, of course I'll be hoping that they make the playoffs this year. But no, unless something about this team's performance fundamentally changes in the next couple weeks, I don't see it mattering much whether they do or don't. This is the first time since 2020 that I've felt that the Bills just don't have it this year. Not that they're Super Bowl caliber and still piecing things together, not that they're an elite team who just hasn't hit their stride yet, not that they're in a midseason lull, no. None of that. Yes, it's hard to admit. Yes, it sucks. Yes, it's inexcusable based on the talent on this roster. Tough times are coming, and there will be no easy answers. I find it very doubtful that Sean McDermott will be let go, even if the Bills finish with a losing season (I don't think they will anyway). So the main question is going to be whether they make a change at offensive coordinator, and whether and to what degree they invest more meaningful resources in the offense -- namely at wide receiver. It's getting close to "hard decisions and hard discussions" time in Buffalo. Things need to change. Will they?

I haven't had the chance to watch the linked video yet because I'm at work, but... My main complaints about Ken Dorsey's offense: - Does not take advantage of the full skillsets of his personnel and put them in the best positions to succeed (see Dalton Kincaid and Deonte Harty) - Playcalls do not build off of past playcalls. Not enough logical sequencing or using past plays and tendencies to set up future plays - Run game not particularly creative or diverse - Uncreative use of pre-snap motion - Does not take advantage of pick plays often enough - Goes away from what works too frequently. If something works and you drive right down the field with it -- STICK TO IT UNTIL THEY STOP IT! - Playbook seems TOO big at times. When you have as many penalties, execution errors, and mental mistakes as the Bills offense lately, it's time to simplify - Ignores the obvious too often (like calling a shotgun play on the 1-inch line instead of a QB sneak) - Does not make creative use of Josh Allen's legs, which are one of the Bills offense's BEST weapons - Generally appears to lack the creativity and innovation of the Shannahans, Reids, McDaniels, and McVays of the world Add to all of this the fact that Dorsey does not seem to be a very good "Josh Allen whisperer" and doesn't seem particularly great at the actual COACHING part of his job, and you have...well...a pretty compelling case for a change. I fully understand that there are lots of metrics that paint the Bills as a good offense. This is a weird case where the reality of the situation does not seem to be accurately reflected in statistics. I don't think any reasonable person watching the Bills week after week would conclude that what they're doing right now on offense is working, or is putting the Bills in the best position to win football games. Something's rotten in the state of Denmark, and the statistics and analytics don't necessarily show it.

I mean this kindly and humbly, and with all sincerity: Punter is the absolute least of the Bills' worries. No punter on earth would change the Bills' record or fix their primary shortcomings this season. We can take the genetics of Ray Guy, Brian Moorman, Lionel Messi, and a kangaroo, put them in a petri dish, mix 'em up, and create a perfect Franken-punter, and it still won't fix what ails the Bills.

I agree that there are times when Josh pats the ball too much and looks tentative. No doubt about it. BUT... Josh Allen is also having the second best statistical season of his career, and may well set career best marks for completion percentage and passing TDs. In my opinion, it's the scheme and the coaching that's to blame. Not to say that Josh is without fault. There have certainly been times this season where he is the reason for the offensive struggles. Far, FAR more often, though, I blame an unimaginative scheme and receivers that aren't that open. Go watch Dolphins and Chiefs All-22 and see how absolutely, comically, ridiculously wide open their receivers are at times. The Bills offense never seems to have that. Why?

I used to feel like McDermott DID allow/promote a fun atmosphere amongst the Bills. Guys like Isaiah McKenzie, Jordan Phillips, Jordan Poyer, Tre'Davious White, and then obviously Diggs and Allen...It seemed like I was always seeing laughter and guys hanging out and having fun and dancing and goofing off. There's certainly still some of that around. We see the dancing and the silliness from time to time. But SOMETHING has changed. It's tangible. You can feel it. Maybe, as you say, it's the weight of the history of the Bills, of their own playoff losses, the crushing weight of success and expectations. But if THAT'S the case, then it's all the more reason a leadership change may be in order. It is, after all, the head coach's job to help his players handle that weight, to handle the pressure, and to overcome it and persevere. After all, the Chiefs had a long history of playoff futility of their own, and it didn't stop them. The Bengals have never won a title, but THEIR players don't seem to be crushed under a heavy weight. No easy answers. But...the X Factor certainly seems to be missing. That certain... Je ne sais quoi. It's not there. The Bills are like a Ferrari being driven by a scared octogenarian right now. You see it rolling along at 20mph on a highway and you just want to scream "GUN IT!", but instead, the hazard lights are blinking and the driver is clutching the wheel, and other cars are zooming past and leaving it in the dust. Depressing.