Logic

Yes, they say Lamar needs to develop his passing and learn to win from the pocket... But no, the discourse has never been "he should stop running" or "lets take the scrambling element out of his game". With Lamar, the discourse is "let's get him to be a better passer to supplement the threat he offers as a runner". With Josh, it seems to be "he needs to stop running because it's dangerous to his health and it's not how good QBs win games, and he needs to win as a pure pocket passer instead".

The thing that drives me crazy with the "reigning Josh in from running the ball" thing is this: Why is Josh Allen the only dangerous running QB that everyone always says "he needs to run less" about? How come you NEVER hear anyone say "Lamar Jackson needs to run the ball less and just win from the pocket"? Like, yes, of COURSE you need to be able to win from the pocket to be a successful QB in the NFL, but that should not come at the expense of being a great runner. It has never, ever, ever been the case that Josh Allen should run the ball less. That is an absolutely asinine thing to want. It's taking away one of the most potent weapons the Bills offense has. The problem is and ALWAYS HAS BEEN that he simply needs to slide or run out of bounds instead of plowing recklessly into three defenders or leaping through the sky like Superman when he's 5 yards short of a first down. Not less running, SMARTER running. Anyone who actually wants Josh to run less -- and this includes his coaches -- is a damned fool. And clearly his coaches HAVE been in his ear about running less, what with Josh's own talk about "you can't major in running the football as a quarterback". The hell you can't! P.S. Where has every major Josh Allen injury so far in his career happened? In the pocket.

Thanks. I'm familiar with the mesh concept. It's ubiquitous in modern football. I think just about every team runs some version of it. My question is, was Dorsey running it somehow differently than other teams run it? Did he alter it in some way that led to disadvantageous spacing? I don't imagine that the Bills frequently turning to Mesh is what led to all the hand wringing, in and of itself. There must have been more to it.

Thanks, Hoof. I have a general question pertaining to the Bills' offensive scheme this year. I'm not sure if it's specific enough to warrant a response. Let's see: I saw guys like Dan Orlovsky and the Cover 1 film crew saying again and again that Dorsey's scheme did not make very good use of spacing in his route concepts. Without having access to the All-22 and without having the necessary knowledge to parse through it even if I did, I'm not able to suss out the truth of this statement. I DID see with my own eyes on TV every week that two receivers (and sometimes even three) tended to wind up in the same cluster of space on the field a bit too often for my liking, though I can't say whether this was due simply to poor execution, or to the theoretical poor use of spacing about which I'm asking. From your perspective, were there legitimate issues with the way Ken Dorsey's scheme did or did not make use of spacing in his route concepts and combinations, and is there a way that Joe Brady can realistically improve in this area going forward this season, in your opinion?

Great response. Thanks. I just specifically wanted to mention that the two examples you mentioned -- Demeco Ryans and Robert Saleh -- don't necessarily refute my overall point, in my opinion. The former is succeeding in large part because his offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, the latest guy from the Shanahan, McDaniel, McVay, Lafleur group, seems to be a brilliant offensive mind. The things he's doing with a rookie quarterback and an underwhelming offensive cast of players is a sight to behold. The only problem is that it's reasonably likely that Slowik will be hired away to be a head coach after this season or next. I don't mean to minimize Ryans' effect as the head man for the Texans, and his defense his great, too, but make no mistake: Without that explosive offense, I doubt they're outgunning the Bengals of the world. And if Slowik IS hired away this offseason? That means the impressive young QB will already be forced to learn a second offensive coordinator's playbook in just his second season. The latter is a perfect example of my worry: the Jets have an absolutely elite defense. Perhaps the best in franchise history. And yet, there's a reasonable likelihood that they're going to miss the playoffs. Why? They're bad on offense. Sure, Aaron Rodgers is out for the year. But that's not always a death sentence. Quality offensive play callers can still find ways to make it work more than what the Jets have done this year. Also, we all ASSUME the Jets would be shredding the NFL if Rodgers is healthy, but we simply don't know that to be true for sure. When I look at the Jets, I see an elite defensive coach leading a team with an elite defense and a moribund offense. If Saleh fails as head coach, it will almost certainly be because the Jets could never consistently field a respectable offense. I absolutely did not subscribe to the "offensive guys are better head coaches in the modern NFL than defensive guys" theory until this season. I stubbornly refused to believe it. I looked at guys like Pete Carroll and Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, and concluded that leadership is what matters most. But then I thought: well, exactly how many championships have Carroll, Tomlin, and Harbaugh won since 2013? Zero. I simply fear that the "my offensive coordinator keeps getting hired out from under me" phenomenon is too much of an ongoing disruption to offenses to not be a factor which significantly hinders teams' offensive success. And since offensive success seems to be what the NFL wants to emphasize above all else, this is a fatal problem. Put simply: if the NFL is going to lean ever more heavily into offense -- and I get what you're saying about defenses counter-punching in the years to come, and I agree -- and if the writing seems to be on the wall that "the best offense with the best QB has the best chance at the Super Bowl each year" (which is certainly what the Reid/Mahomes dominance seems to point to)...then I want the Buffalo Bills to follow that recipe. The good news is that they already have one of the two elements needed! Not many teams can say that! They have Josh Allen, who can lay reasonable claim -- when he is playing at his best, that is -- to being the best in the game. It is simply my belief that so long as Sean McDermott is the head coach of the Bills, they're never realistically going to have the second element: the best possible offense. I could be wrong. Joe Brady could be the guy, or McDermott could hire some hot young offensive wiz kid as OC this offseason, and the Bills offense could be gangbusters again. But then we're back to the "poaching" problem. How long do the Bills get to have Brady or Wiz Kid X before he gets hired away? Pairing Allen with an elite offensive mind as head coach eliminates the "perpetual turnover on offense" problem and, at least theoretically, gives him a 10 year window of great play-calling instead of a series of one and two year windows interspersed with turnover. You may be right, I may be behind the curve. In actuality, though, I feel that it's the BILLS who are behind the curve here. I think offense is the present and the future, and Sean McDermott is simply never going to be Mr Offense.

What are the odds that a drunk Bills fan gets confused and throws a d*ldo at Joe Brady this Sunday?

Two things: One, it's clear to me from Sean McDermott's press conference that he didn't feel that Ken Dorsey was getting the job done from a leadership standpoint, in terms of the things that are "in the margins", as he put it: Execution, ball security, energy, confidence. Whether or not Joe Brady will be an improvement in these areas remains to be seen, but I found that particular comment from McDermott to be very clear in terms of painting a picture of why he fired Dorsey. It was more direct and open than he usually is, I'd say. He left no question as to what one of the main driving forces was in Dorsey's dismissal. Two....it's gonna be weird as hell if a guy named Brady saves the Bills season and leads them to the playoffs.

Very clearly the Ravens. The Bills are realistically competing with the Bengals for a Wild Card spot. From here on out, we root FOR division leaders and root AGAINST our Wild Card competition.

The game against the Broncos last week was the first one the Bills have lost at home all year. Last year they lost only one regular season game at home. There are lots of things we can say about the current Buffalo Bills and their shortcomings, but they generally still have a good home field advantage, and they have a very good record at home the past two seasons.

Not yet known, but I sure hope so. I think he has something to offer in terms of being a good pass blocker who can also leak out and catch passes, and also as a short yardage and goal line back. He has had over 1,000 yards from scrimmage each of the past two seasons and his five years younger than Murray. He is by no means "washed". Only problem is that Ty Johnson seems to be the primary kick returner and play on special teams, so he may continue to get the nod over Fournette. He shouldn't, though. When was the last time Ty Johnson had a big return or did anything noteworthy on the football field? I think Fournette offers more to the offense than Johnson does to special teams, but...I'm not the one making the roster decisions.

Thanks for the great writeup, as always. First, your primary statement is correct. Firing Ken Dorsey was the correct move at this time. It was really the ONLY move. It was not a case of scapegoating, but rather, the only logical decision to be made. As to the bigger picture (and I guess I'm really just typing out my feelings on the subject because I'm curious to hear yours) : I have always defended Sean McDermott. To have the winning percentage he does -- which ranked first among all Bills coaches coming into this season and, as you pointed out, ranks favorably amongst his peers -- means that he's a good head coach. HOWEVER... I believe that he may no longer be the right man to lead this Buffalo Bills team. I think it can be simultaneously true that a coach is very good at what he does, AND that he is not the correct man to be leading a certain team at a given point in time, and I fear that may be what has happened in Buffalo. I simply think that the collective history of the Bills under McDermott -- 13 seconds, all of the trauma of last season, the myriad bumbling losses where they stole defeat from the jaws of victory over the past few years -- has become incredibly heavy on the shoulders of this team, and that the only way to move past it, and thus to reinvigorate the team and inject the fresh energy and enthusiasm and confidence that the players so clearly need, is to turn the page. Heck, to throw the book away and start a completely new one. I just think it's time. I won't pretend to have a specific pick for who should replace McDermott if he's let go, but I WILL say that I have come to the point where I see the downfall of having a defense-minded head coach in 2023. Quite simply, if the OC he hires is any good, he's going to get poached to be a head coach somewhere else after a season or two. The only way your OC is sticking around for the long haul is if he's not poach-worthy, and if that's the case, it means your offense probably isn't as good as it needs to be. So in a hypothetical world where the Bills keep McDermott, I fear they're in for a perpetual cycle of OC turnover, and thus, offensive instability. The inverse is true if you hire an offense-minded coach, of course, but I think turnover at defensive coordinator is less of a big deal, and besides, teams seemingly hire away good defensive coordinators to be head coaches less often these days, anyway. Up until this season, I believed that you could still consistently compete for titles with a defense-minded head coach. I still believed that having an elite defense paired with a franchise QB was a recipe for constant championship contention. But if I look around the league now at the teams making the most noise and looking the most dangerous? It's offensive wiz kids across the board. And some of the teams that have great offenses because of their offensive coordinator, instead? Well, those guys (the Ben Johnsons and Bobby Slowiks of the world) are likely to get hired away from those teams this offseason. Besides, the long time calling cards of Sean McDermott? Mental toughness, attention to detail, accountability? I'm just not seeing them on display any more. So if he's not offering those things and he's not offering an elite offense for Josh Allen, what is he offering, exactly? McDermott will get the rest of the season here, as he should. But as much as I respect him as both a man and a coach, I've reached the point where I'm ready for a new start. Maximizing the offense is the way to win in the NFL in 2023, and "maximizing the offense" and "Sean McDermott" are just two things that I don't think can realistically co-exist for the Buffalo Bills. I'll always be thankful for what he did here, and I think he still has a lot to offer a young team in need of a reset -- the Carolina Panthers, say. But sometimes it's just time for a change. Unfortunately, I think the Bills have reached that point.

Off topic, I guess, but I was just reading about the Texans' OC, Bobby Slowik, and drooling at the thought of this type of offensive creativity in Buffalo. Since the Bobby Slowiks and Ben Johnsons of the world can't make a lateral move at OC and thus could only come to Buffalo as head coach, well, it brings us back to the notion of letting McDermott go and bringing in someone new. To wit: "Slowik has given Stroud the confidence to push the ball downfield with exceptional spacing and three-level route combinations, while injecting a screen threat and gradually establishing the physicality on the ground customary to any balanced modern attack. He is utilising Dalton Schultz as the seam focal point of 3x2 empty spread looks with double flat and hitch routes that open up the middle of the field for the tight end, and drawing on the snappy release and accuracy of Stroud in smash fade concepts on the outside. His twins formation (two receivers lined up on one side) have meanwhile hopped between double-dig routes with a checkdown option, a one-out-one-in split with a checkdown option, and double-out floods that manipulate the nearest hook/curl linebacker. Without boasting an embarrassment of offensive riches, Slowik is putting Stroud in positions to be himself and to, ultimately, succeed. He is dialling up trick play running back throws and side-arm flips passes near the goalline; he is freezing defenders with delayed routes and finding ways to turn Nico Collins into a problem downfield." I mean..."giving [his quarterback] the confidence to push the ball downfield with exceptional spacing and three-level route combinations", "utilizing [his tight end] as the seam focal point of 3x2 empty spread looks", and "putting [his QB] in positions to be himself and to...succeed" "without an embarrassment of riches"... How welcome does all of THAT sound right about now?

It just feels like the writing is on the wall for McDermott, and holding onto him another season would be delaying the inevitable. As others have pointed out, he's now fired a special teams coordinator, (possibly) a defensive coordinator, and two offensive coordinators. The third offensive coordinator left of his own accord, but clearly has a fractured relationship with McDermott. It's hard to see how someone who has overseen that much turnover is suddenly gonna right the ship and once again oversee a stable, winning coaching staff. Further, the thing I agree with most strongly and find most damning is that for a guy that preaches accountability so loudly and so often, McDermott sure seems to lack it. The way he responded to 13 seconds (or, more accurately, DIDN'T respond to it) -- the way he completely refused to take ownership, the way he refused to quash the loud chorus of discontent among fans and media by simply standing at the front of the room and being a man and saying "it all comes down to me, I'm the head man and I didn't get the job done" immediately changed my opinion on him, and has had me watching his actions with suspicion ever since. Nothing he has done since that time has shown him to practice what he preaches with regard to accountability. I hope the Bills can turn it around, go on a run, and make some noise in the playoffs, because the Bills winning football games is always the number one thing I root for. But failing that? I hope Terry Pegula and Brandon Beane have the stones to "relieve Sean McDermott of his duties", because I think I've finally seen enough.

Cheap response. There are lots of "clowns" in football analysis and on Twitter, specifically. Warren sharp is a reasonably bright guy, and his piece at least provided lots of numbers and reasoning for his conclusion. Totally reasonable to disagree with him -- there were some sections of the article that I had issues with, too -- but if you disagree with him SO strongly that you're willing to dismiss his article out of hand and call him a "clown", you'd think it shouldn't be too difficult to list at least a few of the reasons why you disagree so strongly.

I'm just glad I could give everyone a new reason to get angry with each other.

Nope, I'd just steal their offensive coordinator and install him as the head coach of the Bills.

I suggest reading the entire article. What Sharp eludes to in it is not simply "running it back" from 2020. He goes into greater detail as to what exactly he means.

I suggest you actually read the article.

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/sean-mcdermott-buffalo-bills-ken-dorsey/ A tiger cannot change his stripes. Ultimately, neither can Sean McDermott. The 2020 Bills came so close to winning it all. Their offense was nearly unstoppable. It didn’t resemble anything Buffalo had seen in decades. And it was the first time they made it to the AFC Title game since 1993. But instead of running it back with minor tweaks, McDermott said in his post-season press conference that he wanted to “start over” and do so by “running the ball better.” The direction of the Bills has been a downward spiral ever since that fateful day. Want to know why that 2020 season seems so different and magical than what the Bills have seen since, particularly in recent years? Because that was the only year McDermott truly took a step back from the offense and let someone else give it a spin with full impunity. As I’ll detail below, that was OC Brian Daboll’s ticket to ride anything at the park. Super Bowl or bust. But if it busts, regardless of whether it got *this close* to a Super Bowl, the fun is over. Back to basics. And since that AFC Championship loss, the blame from the top has gone everywhere: First, it was Daboll. He left after 2021. Then it was defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. He left after 2022. Now it is Ken Dorsey, who was fired at the midpoint of this 2023 season. Ironically, Dorsey’s firing came after a home loss to the Broncos that was both predictable and ultimately the fault of the head coach.... ------------------------ That's just the beginning of the article, but I highly suggest reading the whole thing. Yikes.

Funnily enough, I was thinking the opposite. I've been thinking that more of an Air Coryell style, with deep and intermediate play-action built off of a potent running game, is the best way to harness Josh's powers. It's weird that the worst year to date for Josh throwing interceptions also happens to be his BEST year to date for completion percentage. Obviously, some of the "dink and dunk" and "playing it safe" has been due to opposing defenses playing lots of two-high coverage, but...I'd like to see the return of "bombs away" Josh. Not that west coast offense CAN'T be an aggressive downfield passing offense -- Andy Reid's offense is based in west coast principles and clearly the Chiefs don't usually have issues with passing production -- but it's not normally the first thing I think of what that system. Josh is great off of playaction, he's great intermediate and deep, and he has maybe the strongest arm in NFL history. I'd like to see whatever system he's in next feature lots of pocket movement, designed rollouts, and aggressive downfield passing. I'd like it to be a system that de-emphasizes rocket science level thinking and coordination between the QB and receivers, as Dorsey's offense seemed to, and emphasizes letting the players play fast and attack and not think quite so damn much.

1.) Not all turnovers are created equally. As Dan Orlovsky pointed out, Josh has three truly egregious interceptions on the year. He also has multiple interceptions that were tipped at the line or bounced off of his receivers' hands. 2.) As Dan Orlovsky ALSO pointed out, the Bills offense has become super static, basic, and easy for defenses to gameplan against. Josh Allen is the type of player who, when there's nothing there, tries a bit too hard at times to make something out of nothing. 3.) The entire offensive cast of players has been playing sloppy football, dropping catchable passes, and ending up in the wrong place on pass patterns at times. To me, the ongoing complete offensive dysfunction and sloppiness almost certainly points to a failure in coaching. All of these points lead me to this: I think that the dismissal of Ken Dorsey may lead to less turnovers from Josh Allen, and I think it will end up being a non-issue. If Brady is no great improvement, then I expect whoever is next at OC -- presuming he's worth his salt -- to lead to a smarter and less turnover-prone Josh Allen. Lastly, REGARDLESS of who his OC is, Josh Allen WILL always be a gunslinger, he will likely ALWAYS have a decent amount of turnovers, but the good will likely almost always outweigh the bad. You take the bad plays with the super-human ones, because you can't have the latter without occasionally having the former. Shooters shoot.

Great post. Thanks. I will only say that I, too, am not in favor of firing Beane. I AM in favor of firing McDermott (at season's end, assuming no turnaround resulting in playoffs). If you think that Beane is a good GM, as I do, then letting him pick his own head coach for the first time is appealing. I understand what you're saying about he and McDermott being a package deal, and maybe that's the case, but we have no way of knowing. Beane just signed an extension, has stated he loves working for the Pegulas, and presumably his family is settled in Buffalo. It's hard for me to imagine him being so tied to McDermott that it's an "if he goes, I go" situation. Personally, at this point I think my preferred outcome would be Beane staying, but the entire coaching staff being cleared out and a new one being hired.

By firing Sean McDermott, the Bills would be moving on from a conservative, buttoned up, defensive minded head coach who preaches mental toughness, discipline, and playing complimentary football, and who is possibly a bit too serious and miserly to connect with guys like Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs... ...and replacing him with... Well...

Correct. Was a defensive coach on that Redskins staff that had Shanahan, McVay, McDaniels, and LaFleur. Is currently running a successful offense with what most would agree are a lot less talented parts than what the Bills have. I think either Ben Johnson or Slowik would be the logical choices if the Bills want to go with an offensive guy, which they should.

Not sure if anyone has mentioned him yet, but: Bobby Slowik, OC for the Houston Texans. The latest coach from the Shanahan, McVay, McDaniels, LaFleur group. Just 36 years old. If he can do what he's currently doing with a rookie QB and Noah Brown and Tank Dell as his receivers, imagine what he can do with Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Dalton Kincaid. Sure, he'd be an unknown as a head coach, but I'd rather take a swing on someone that can maximize Josh's talent than go with some stale re-tread. Things have worked pretty well for coaches from this coaching tree lately. And as for Slowik specifically, the proof is in the pudding with the explosive Texans offense.