Logic

I thought Kaiir was a trade candidate prior to camp and the preseason, but I don't think he is any more. The coaching staff and front office have shown a lot of patience with him, and now it FINALLY seems to be paying off, as reports out of camp suggest he was routinely making plays and was rotating with Benford as a starter. It just doesn't make sense to me to invest three years of patience and development into a first round pick, and then when he's FINALLY starting to show something, to ship him off for a 5th or 6th round pick. I think the following corners all make the roster: Douglas Benford Elam Johnson Ingram Hardy If one of them DOESN'T make the final roster, I expect it to be Ingram. The other guys are all locks, IMO.

But only if Chan was coaching.

I knew I'd find you here talking about CJ Spiller. I just knew it.

If you remain silent and listen reallllly closely, you can hear it. Quiet. QUIET! Quieter still!!! Shhhhhh. LISTEN. Hear it? Yep. That's the sounds of our offense quietly getting better.

There are a few answers, all of them reasonable but incomplete. The truth is this: The board tends to be incredibly reactionary and have incredible recency bias. When the Bills just reeled off two impressive wins, people are on here talking about which hotel to book near the site of the Super Bowl. When the Bills just lost a last second game by 1 point to a great opponent, people on here are saying the coach and GM needs to be fired and we ought to get a look at the backup quarterback. This board is a steady stream of great, passionate, and intelligent conversation. But its all on a raft, floating in a sea of exaggeration, hyperbole, trolls, and duplicate threads. You can either climb on the raft and drift about, having a grand old time discussing how Spiller and Parrish were ahead of their time, or you can drown in the deep waters of stupidity. Your choice. As for why it's so negative right NOW? The last few seasons ended in rough fashion, and this was a rough offseason. Check back after we beat the Cardinals in week one, and we'll be comparing flight prices to Super Bowl city.

Can't watch at work atm. I've seen Peyton's clip, but who does Brady list and what does he say about Josh?

According to Overthecap.com, among all teams in the NFL, the Chiefs allocated the 3rd, 4th, and 3rd most cap dollars to their offense the past three years. During the same time period, the Bills allocated the 24th, 12th, and 26th most cap dollars on offense. It's a big disparity. Quite simply, the Bills consistently spend a lot more on defense than they do on offense. In terms of draft picks, they Bills have NEVER drafted a 1st round receiver. Yes, I realize they traded a 1st round pick for Stefon Diggs, but it doesn't change the fact that since 2017, not a single 1st round receiver has been selected by the Bills. That seems strange to me. They finally COULD have selected one this year, but even then, they traded down, watched three other teams take receivers, THEN picked one in the second round. Yes, they spent their top pick on an offensive skill player two years in a row, but only after a streak of using their top picks on a CB, DE, DE, and DT. If "over-investing" is what you'd call what I wanted them to do at the WR position, then fine. Sure. Let them "over-invest" in that position. Lord knows they've been over-investing on the DL for years now, with mostly mediocre to slightly above average results to show for it. As for Coleman: speaking only for myself, it was not Coleman's speed, but his lack of separation skills that worried me about him as a prospect. I'm not sure if you're familiar with Matt Harmons Reception Perception profiles, but they're a great predictive metric for WRs, and they weren't kind to Coleman. Everything from advanced analytics like YPRR and aDOT and dominator rating and breakout age, to his best single season receiving yardage production in college not topping 800 yards, to the eyeball test of watching his "all snaps" videos on YouTube across various games...all of it put up red flags for me. I, too, love his work ethic, his will to be great, his personality, and his physical traits. In terms of his actual production profile and how it portends to success as a pro, I had and still have doubts. I also agree that his best usage in the pros -- at least to start out -- would likely be similar to the way the Chiefs used Rashee Rice last year, playing him from the slot where he can get free releases rather than sticking him at X and forcing him to get off the press. I feel they're setting him up to fail somewhat, or at least not leaning into his strengths as a player. It's so much more than just his 40 time that gives me pause. But annnyyywaaayy....all of that constitutes the "re-litigating a well-discussed topic" that I mentioned earlier. We all just have opinions, as you say, and we're all ROOTING for Coleman and the Bills WR corps to succeed, even if our respective confidence levels in his and their ability to do so differ. Cheers and Go Bills 🍺

If you truly feel that surrounding Josh Allen with prime weaponry in the passing game has been a priority for this organization the past few seasons, then so be it. I disagree. I also disagree with the notion that Coleman's 40 time is the only reason people didn't like the pick, but there's really no need to re-litigate that issue at this point in time. It's all been discussed ad nauseum.

Thanks. I agree with what you say here as well. The only argument people seem to be able to offer in rebuttal is "well, this year is a reset year anyway, and NEXT year they'll be making some noise!". Which, okay, fine. But as @HappyDays pointed out, if that IS the path they've chosen to take, then it would've made all the sense in the world to get a few young receivers in our building THIS year, have them get their growing pains out of the way THIS year, and then NEXT year they'd be ready to "make some noise" along with the rest of the roster. Instead, even if the Bills draft another WR or two next year, they'll be rookies, and we'll be hearing "we can't expect them to fully contribute until 2026." At the end of the day, I realize that you can't fill every need every offseason. You have to choose where to attack roster improvement, where to concentrate your spending and draft pick allocation. Just once, I wanted them to make wide receiver the TOP priority in the offseason, even if it meant steady vets and not superstars, as you say, and a couple draft picks. We've seen what happens when they focus their attention elsewhere and "get by" at WR. It hasn't gotten the results we want. I was/am ready to see what would happen if they loaded up the WR room and were willing to "get by" at other positions, and this year was a great draft class to do it with, but they chose not to. Frustrating.

I cannot say this strongly enough: Stop following Dov Kleiman. He is the absolute WORST of the content aggregators on Twitter. He's awful. @32BeatWriters is an example of content aggregation done well. But MLFootball, JPAFootball, NFLNotifications, and especially DovKleiman, are all awful and do not deserve your clicks.

I'll grant you KJ Hamler. He was a productive college receiver chosen in the 2nd round whose only downfall thus far has been an inability to stay healthy. I don't think it needed to be either/or, though. Taking a day three WR wouldn't have impacted the Bills' ability to bring Hamler to camp. In any case, I just don't think the Bills take enough swing at WR in the draft, particularly considering the importance of the position in the 2024 NFL. To give just one example, they attack the RB position with greater regularity and aggression and higher draft capital than the WR position, and that just doesn't make any sense to me. I want to see them regularly re-stocking the cupboards with quality receiving options, and they just seem absolutely unwilling to do so.

I'll play along with the "who should the Bills go after at WR" game. I don't think the Bills are going to trade for a WR. I wish they would, but I don't think they will. IF they were going to do it, though, one target that I think would be both realistic and attainable, from both a compensation and contract cost standpoint, is Marvin Mims from the Broncos. Depending who you ask, he rangers anywhere from 2nd to 5th on the Broncos depth chart. Crucially, though, Sean Payton seems to be consciously moving the Broncos WR corps to a more size-based approach. Mims only saw ONE preseason snap last week. That may be an indication that he has a starting spot locked up, or it MAY be an indication that -- like last year -- he has fallen somewhat out of favor with the coaching staff. He his a fast, twitchy receiver with RAC ability who could be the Bills kick and punt returner AND -- if necessary -- fill in for Samuel as the "motion guy"/diverse and movable chess piece. He's 5'11", 182 lbs, and had over 1000 yards and 6 TDs as a JR at Oklahoma. I like him a lot and I think the Broncos, for whatever reason, are wasting him. I think an early day three 2025 pick could get the job done, and would be a worthwhile move to make. You simply don't know that. Amon Ra St Brown was a 4th round pick and had over 900 yards as a rookie. Puka Nacua was a 5th round pick and had over 1400 yards as a receiver. Stefon Diggs himself was a 5th round pick and posted over 700 yards as a rookie. You can say that the PROBABILITY of a day three pick making a difference is low, but that doesn't mean it doesn't happen. It absolutely does. And the only way to have a shot at that type of "outlier" is to take a swing at it. Even if a day three WR pick has, say, a 10% chance at making a difference, that's still higher than the 0% chance at WR productivity the Bills get by not taking one at all.

I think all the "McGovern is just a stopgap" and "he's the center by default after cutting Morse" talk is off base. It seems to me like McGovern established himself as the leader of the offensive line last year, and a major leader of the offense as a whole. I can't remember where, but I recently read/saw that it was pizza nights at McGovern's house that helped turn the season around last year. That the comradery and closeness built amongst the line and amongst the team at his house on those nights helped the guys dig deep and come together and want to fight for each other. In a season where team chemistry and intangible were a bit...funky, I don't think this report should be discounted. As for purely the on-field aspect: McGovern is/was a natural center. He has stated that he wanted to play center in the NFL, but the Cowboys didn't give him the chance. I'm sure the Bills coaching staff knew that he wanted to play center, too, not to mention having seen him do so in Bills practices and camp last year. It is my opinion that the combination of McGovern's leadership and the ability and play they saw from him at center last year helped them decide that now was the time to move on from Morse. I like SVP as much as the next guy. You can look back through the archives and see me touting him on draft night as the future starter for the Bills. I still think he may be that, but I'm looking at it happening maybe a few seasons down the line. For now? Unless McGovern struggles, he's the guy. Not by accident, not as a stopgap, but by conscious choice of the front office and coaching staff.

Yeah. He is arguably the offensive skill player we could LEAST afford to lose. I'm not sure everyone fully grasps how big a role he is going to play in this offense. It's not that he'll necessarily be the #1 read on every play or some kind of target monster. Heck, he may not even surpass 1,000 yards receiving. But every report out of camp indicates that Brady has him CONSTANTLY on the move before the snap. Out wide, in the slot, in the backfield. Orbit motions, return motions, jet sweeps, screens. All kinds of things to manipulate the defense, ID coverage, and make life easier for Josh Allen. To lose that element for any length of time is going to have a major impact on what the offense can do. Furthermore, I don't see another player on the roster who can replace what Samuel brings. KJ Hamler would be my best guess, but I haven't heard any reports about him doing the same things Samuel's been doing throughout camp. It would theoretically all be new to him. To expect him to go from WR6/7 and a fringe roster guy to "starting WR and integral cog in the Bills offense" seems like a big ask. Here's hoping Samuel can be ready by week 1. And if not, then let him miss the first two games and heal up completely rather than come back early and risk re-injury. I'd rather have a fully healthy Curtis Samuel from week three on ward than a gimpy, on-and-off the field Curtis Samuel from week 1 onward.

All Pros? Nah. I just wanted them to draft more than one WR in a WR-heavy draft. Guys like Ja’Lynn Polk, Javon Baker, Jalen McMillan, Jordan Whittington, and Jacob Cowing are making plays for other teams right now. All drafted round two and later. “Replenishing the entire roster” seems to consistently and repeatedly take precedence over surrounding Josh Allen with playmakers, year after year after year. You’ll have to forgive me for thinking a 3rd or 4th round WR would’ve been a better investment than a 3rd or 4th round DT or RB. Our current potential week 1 WR depth chart would certainly seem to lend credence to my crazy notion.

Respectfully, you've been one of the loudest cheerleaders -- if not the loudest -- of the current WR corps all offseason. You wrote hundreds of words across multiple threads telling me that my concerns about the lack of depth at WR and the Bills' refusal to draft more than one WR were unfounded, and that they'd be just fine. And now here we are, staring down the barrel of Mack Hollins as WR2 and Tyrell Shavers as WR4. The reality is this: Two of the WRs that got hurt weren't any good anyway. Claypool is dangerously close to being an NFL washout at age 26. MVS's career high in single season receiving yardage is 690. So yeah, those guys are hurt, but even if they WEREN'T, they're still not very good players, and the Bills' depth chart at WR is/was still thin. I (and others) said back as far as the draft that the WR corps was shallow and was placing an AWFUL LOT in the "if everyone stays healthy, we'll have Samuel, Coleman, and Shakir, and that seems pretty good" basket. Well, guess what? Everyone DIDN'T stay healthy, the lack of depth at the position is showing, and it's looking fairly likely that the Bills will start the season with Mack Hollins and Tyrell Shavers playing major minutes at WR. But again, even if Samuel was the only player lost to injury, you'd still be looking at two JAGs in Claypool and MVS getting major playing time. Spin it however you want. The Bills' potential week 1 depth chart at WR looks bleak. We've got a shiny new 3rd round rotational DT and a shiny new 4th round running back, while guys like Javon Baker and Jalen McMillan and Jordan Whittington make noise for other teams. WR got short shrift AGAIN. It looks like Josh Allen is gonna have to play Superman AGAIN. It just gets so damned old, and I get damned tired of being gaslit into thinking that I'm crazy for wanting more for support for our franchise QB.

On sheer talent, I'd take Brown/Worthy/Rice in a heartbeat, but to each their own. Right, because Samuel getting turf toe is the ONLY issue with this group. Nevermind the lack of depth, nevermind the fact that the Bills are planning to trot out Mack freakin Hollins as Josh Allen's WR2 in the year 2024. Sure, it's ONLY injuries that are the problem.

The issue is that when your depth chart is thin to begin with, you can’t afford to lose anyone. Even if MVS and Claypool were healthy, I wouldn’t be feeling good about our potential week one WR depth chart if Samuel misses the game. Without Samuel in the lineup, Shakir is about the only WR worth a darn. Any way you slice it, injuries or not, Josh Allen may be about to enter his age 29 season with the worst receiving corps he’s had since he was a rookie. That’s downright criminal. Joe Burrow has Chase and Higgins. Mahomes has Brown, Worthy, and Rice. Josh Allen, as of this moment, may be starting week one with Hollins, Coleman, and Shakir. Nauseating.

The fact that we are two weeks prior to the season kicking off and there's a "receivers the Bills could go after" thread is so infuriating, and so predictable. The loudness and ferocity with which I was called a negative Nellie and told not to doubt Brandon Beane back in May. And here we sit. Failing some miracle trade, we're very likely looking at Mack Hollins being counted on as a starting outside receiver in week 1 of the season. If you think that constitutes anything but criminal roster mismanagement by Brandon Beane, then I don't know what to tell ya.

Why rush him back? Because with the wide receiver depth chart minus Curtis Samuel, the Bills' chances at staying afloat until November don't seem great. It'd be lovely to get a full strength Samuel back in November, sure, but not if the Bills are 3-5 at that point.

I'm sure you can barely contain your excitement.

The severity of Samuel's turf toe would be a great thing to know, as it drastically affects the outlook for his recovery. We have to assume from the "week to week" language that it's not Grade 3. Grade 1: A mild case that may heal on its own in a few days to a week with rest. Grade 2: May require a few days to a couple of weeks off, but could take a few weeks to fully heal. Grade 3: Can take two to six months to heal, and may require surgery and wearing a cast for six or more weeks. A study of 15 football players with grade 3 injuries found they missed an average of 16.5 weeks of playing time while recovering from surgery.

Turf toe absolutely lingers and absolutely limits players' effectiveness. Of all that bad injury news, Samuel having turf toe is easily the worst of it. Especially with how integral it sounded like he was going to be to this team's plans offensively. There is really no one on our offense that can replicate his skillset, either. This is NOT good. Potential week one WRs: Coleman Hollins Shakir Shavers Hamler That is truly ugly. Good God.

Plus we let Sammy Watkins go there. Grrrr I'm MAD

Seeing the lack of success for our receivers so far this preseason (bad QB play notwithstanding) is irritating, because it was entirely predictable. On draft night, I wanted Xavier Worthy. Why? Because if you've decided that you're going to operate a lot of your offense through the middle of the field with guys like Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Khalil Shakir, and Cook/Davis, it makes sense to ensure that the defense can't squat on it. It makes sense to put explosive guys on the outside to take the top off the defense and open things up. So the fastest WR in combine history was sitting there, and I had visions of Worthy and Samuel on the outside, and the aforementioned TEs and Shakir eating in the MOF all day long. Or pounding the run game and opening up deep shots to Worthy. Or killing them with crossers if the defense went man-heavy. Instead the Bills decided they wanted a big-bodied X receiver (which I thought they could've gotten later in the draft with someone like Javon Baker), and to let the Kansas City chiefs -- Yes, the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -- get the fastest player in combine history instead. Fast forward to today, and Worthy is making deep touchdown catches in camp and preseason games, and Coleman is still struggling to separate from any cornerbacks of competence. Of course it's still only preseason, and we need to give Coleman time to develop, and I direly hope I'm wrong about the whole mess and he makes me look like an idiot. At this moment, though, the lack of separation and, ultimately, production by our wide receivers through two preseason games is anything but surprising, and the fact that Worthy looks like an early star (or at the very least a productive starting WR) makes it sting all the more. It's early, yes, but it looks like once again it's going to require expert scheming by the OC and all-world heroism by Josh Allen in order to get production from our offense. Lovely.