Logic

The thing that bugs me with the Star talk is that everyone on the Bills -- coaches, players (young and old), everyone -- says he does his job and does it well. Meanwhile, fans -- not even analysts, really, just regular fans -- swear up and down that he stinks. So who should I believe? The coaches and players? Guys like Leslie Frazier and Lorenzo Alexander? Or armchair quarterbacks and message board "experts"? The big disconnect, in my opinion, likely comes down to what the guy is paid. If he had an average contract, no one would talk about him much. Because he gets paid a lot, Bills fans like to scapegoat him and whine endlessly about him. Maybe, just maybe, there's more to the Bills' recent run defense problems than just one player's performance? Maybe, just maybe, fans don't always know what the hell they're talking about?

When you look at a football matchup to try to decide who has the edge, you usually look at three factors: Coaching, Quarterback, and Defense. I would say that ALL THREE of those factors currently go in Buffalo's favor. I'm not saying Josh Allen is better than Baker Mayfield, but he certainly has been PLAYING better than Baker the past few weeks. So coaching, quarterback, defense? Buffalo. And yet? I can't shake the feeling of a Bills loss this Sunday.

I'm familiar with their roster. Their defense has talent in the front 7 and the secondary. Ogunjobi and Garrett on the line, Denzel Ward and Demarious Randall in the secondary. Their offense has two excellent receivers and a quarterback who -- despite his recent struggles -- is still a talented player that can make all the throws. Their backfield of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should be formidable. The Bills recent vulnerabilities to inside zone runs does not bode well for this game, because the Browns have JC Tretter at center, who is more than capable, and who will be paving the way for the aforementioned running backs. I already said the Bills are a better TEAM than the Browns. I stick by my statement, however, that the Browns have a ton of talent on the roster. The notions that the Bills should be big favorites, or that there's "no way they should lose to this team" are erroneous, in my opinion. YMMV.

Nah. To conclude that, one would have to be looking ONLY at the two teams' records. A more in depth look shows that the Bills have likely been playing a bit above their talent level in terms of win total, while the Browns are under-performing, but have a supremely talented roster. In my mind, losing an away game against a desperate opponent that has OBJ, Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Baker Mayfield, Myles Garrett, and Denzel Ward would not be a surprise at all. In fact, I'm expecting it.

Nothing quite like people who don't know what they're looking at or what the scheme is asking the players to do watching a few plays and then diagnosing the problems the team is facing. I just wonder if the OP is available for a conference call with the coaches, since he clearly has this thing figured out.

I'm really curious to hear more from whoever winds up voting "no" on this poll.

Josh Allen has alleviated so many concerns that people had about him so far this season. He has improved his accuracy, improved his completion percentage, improved his ability to read defenses pre and post snap, improved his pocket presence, improved on his willingness to hang in the pocket rather than bail early, he leads the league in game-winning drives... I mean..the only legitimate complaint people seem to have about Allen right now is that he's been more of a game manager than a playmaker. But think of that: JOSH ALLEN...is now an effective game manager. Something we were told he couldn't do. And oh, by the way, he does things like routinely convert 3rd and 15+ situations, he leads the NFL's BEST red zone offense, and he's now gone 13 straight quarters without throwing an interception -- which is a big improvement for him. All of this within his first 20 games played. He has lots of room for improvement and no one's saying he's "there" yet, but if you can honestly look at his play from last year to this year and not see vast improvements and some hints of a possible franchise QB, well...I don't know what to tell you.

This "300 yards nonsense" is just the worst. Fantasy Football has ruined football discussion/analysis.

Don't move Oliver anywhere. Leave him at 3T, where he's having a good rookie season. Let him learn on the job. He needs reps at the pro level. The only people thinking he's any kind of a letdown are those who bought into all of the Aaron Donald and John Randle comparisons and set themselves up to believe he'd have 6 or more sacks as a rookie. Warren Sapp -- arguably the greatest penetrating 3T of all time -- had 3 sacks as a rookie. John Randle, the Hall of Famer to whom Oliver was compared before the draft, had ONE sack in his rookie season. Historically, defensive tackles take a season or two to adjust to the pro game and start to dominate. Aaron Donald was a rare exception to this rule. Oliver is doing just fine. He needs a bunch of reps the second half of the season and a full offseason in the weight room and he's gonna be the absolute least of the Bills' concerns going forward.

Who is Kevin and why is he giving Taylor liquid?

#1 is such a complex question. I would argue that there have been games where the Bills won in spite of Josh AND games where they've won because of him. I could easily point to his 4 game-winning drives this season as games that they won because of him, but it could just as easily be countered that a game-winning drive was only necessary in the first place because of his poor play in the previous quarters. I do think the three benchmarks laid out in the article make sense, though. Clearly, the jury's still out on Allen.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/11/5/20941743/nfl-young-quarterback-evaluation-gardner-minshew-baker-mayfield-mitchell-trubisky Cool article on the Ringer today at the above link. Basically, after talking to talent evaluators and players, the noticed these three questions recurring as the basis for whether or not a QB is worth keeping and building around. This criteria, I would think, should open up some nice discussion about our OWN young QB. 1. Is this is a player you can win because of, and not in spite of? This is the portion of the evaluation where guys like Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson quickly show that they’re worth a long-term investment. And it’s a question that many quarterbacks—even some who earn lucrative extensions—may never fully answer. 2. Do the player’s strengths outnumber his weaknesses? This line of thinking is paramount when considering the futures of QBs like Mayfield and Jameis Winston, whose highs are undeniably attractive, but whose deficiencies still leave doubts at these (admittedly very different) points in their careers. 3. Has the player had enough opportunity—with proper scheme, coaching, and personnel—to show whether he is a QB you can consistently compete with? The exact time frame needed to answer this question differed among the folks I spoke with, but the ballpark seemed to be around 45 starts, or about three seasons’ worth. That number dovetails nicely with the practical realities of most young QB contracts. Players on rookie deals can be extended after their third season. First-round picks must have their fifth-year option exercised after that year, as well.

Woah. The Bills "easily handling" the best rushing team in the league seems like a long shot after the way they've defended the run the past two weeks. I'm not saying that the Bills won't have a chance to win that game, but.."handle them easily"? I sincerely doubt it. I respect your optimism, though!

Well said!

I've always felt that because of how small a market Buffalo is and because of our long history of losing, the Bills have to be EXTRA good or interesting to get national headlines. The Bills are neither right now. I totally agree that a 6-2 team with the #3 overall defense should be a big national story in the NFL. If the Jets had our exact record and defensive ranking, for instance, there'd be round-the-clock coverage of how great they were and whether or not they're poised to overtake the Pats for the east. Instead, because it's Buffalo, it's a non-story. Only one way for Buffalo to change this: Become consistent winners. Contend every year for playoffs and championships. Until that happens, national media won't give a damn. Sad, but true.

This was the most enjoyable 17 minutes I've experienced in a long, long time. Wow. And to any Bills fans and negative Nancies who like to whine after wins because they aren't "good" wins and piss and moan every week no matter what: Watch the above video for a little perspective. THAT'S a bad season. THAT'S cause to piss and moan as much as some of you do about the Bills, who are 6-2. Perspective.

Agreed. Furthermore, when there are 10 or 11 teams on your schedule that everyone agrees you "should" win, well...what does it say about your team that everyone thinks you "should" win those games? It says that everyone recognizes that you are superior to those teams. Put another way: There have been several seasons in the past 20 years where the Bills faced bad opponents that they "should" beat, and they couldn't beat them! We have seen the Bills lose "should win" games time and time again over the past two decades. Even if all the 2019 Bills have done, accomplishment wise, is learn to win all the games they "should" win, thats something! That's enough to get you to the playoffs some year, as we are potentially seeing now. And it's no sure thing that you're going to be able to take advantage of an easy schedule. You know who ELSE gets to face most of the same opponents the Bills are facing? The Jets. The Dolphins. What are THEIR records? You have to be good enough to be considered superior to the bottom feeders to begin with, and you have to be good enough to take advantage of the easy schedule by winning the games you should win. So far, the Bills HAVE been, and that represents a big change from the past 20 years. Next up: Finding ways to win a few games they're not "supposed to" win.

Great question. I see merit to both approaches. Building this thing the right way, slow and steady, makes some sense to me. It's how you ensure long-term stability and intelligent cap usage. On the other hand, using the rookie QB contract window to spend big money elsewhere and try to make a run has proven successful time and time again in recent seasons for many different teams. It can be argued that this version of the Bills will NEVER have more cap and roster flexibility than that which is afforded by a QB on his rookie contract. Not only that, but some of their key roster pieces (Hyde, Poyer, Morse, Brown, Beasley) are in their prime NOW, and continuing to build for the future instead of the present won't always make sense. It will be fascinating to see which course the Bills front office follows this offseason. EDIT: It occurs to me that I'm not sure how much big swinging the Bills NEED to do this offseason. They look to me to be a good edge rusher, a good WR, and a good RT away from being pretty damned good anyway. I'd say the onus needs to be on QUALITY over QUANTITY this offseason. They may only need some edge help, a WR, and a RT, but they need great players at those positions more than they need quantity at those positions. If they're going to take some big swings this offseason, I say let it be for for a small handful of high quality players vs a large handful of decent players.

You may be right. I ALSO have hope that Singletary's involvement and continued maturation from Allen lead to an offensive boost. Generally, though, I don't expect the boost to be dramatic. I don't expect it to completely change who and what the Bills are. They won't become an offensive powerhouse, no matter WHAT they do with Singletary. They don't have the horses needed in the receiving room just yet, and their quarterback doesn't yet know how to fully take advantage of the weapons that ARE in house. That's just my opinion, of course. I could be dead wrong. Overall, I just get the feeling that "defense-first team with a young, mistake-prone offense; Will win games against lesser opponents and struggle against quality teams" is what the Bills are right now. And that's okay. Just getting to the point of "beating the teams you should" is an accomplishment. There have been many, MANY teams in the past 20 years that couldn't even beat the teams they "should" beat. At least these Bills are doing that. That alone, in some years, as we are seeing, can be enough to make the playoffs. And once you're there? All bets are off. Anything can happen.

Thanks for the reply. I would counter that folks who completely disregard the record because the wins haven't happened in just the perfect way or against better opponents are ALREADY wallowing in disappointment and misery. I'd rather fly head-on into Disappointment Alley than sit on the runway, arms crossed and refusing to let the "Season enjoyment" plane even take off. But that's me. To each their own.

I've decided to start doing a post-game writeup each week on Monday morning. If you think I'm a dope, just click away now. Or bash me in the replies, that's fine, too. For anyone who cares to stick around, the idea is that I'll write a six-pick of thoughts from the previous day's Bills game, followed by an extra point, which will be an over-arching wrap-up or main point of discussion that's on my mind. I've never been known for my brevity. Consider yourself warned. Here goes. The Extra Point - Week 9 1.) The Bills pretty much are what they are at this point: They have a below average offense that struggles with consistency, is great in the red zone but doesn't get there often enough, is prone to long stretches of putrid play, but somehow turns it on more often than not in the 4th quarter when needed. They have an above average defense that is prone to getting gashed in the ground game and can be beaten by smart, savvy veteran QBs at times, but otherwise usually keeps them in games. Their special teams is..well..it's just there. It doesn't really cost them many games, but it doesn't win them any games, either. It seems like a likely bet that the Bills will make the playoffs. They might even win a playoff game. But while they may grow and progress a LITTLE BIT this season, they pretty much are what they are -- for THIS season, anyway. Anyone waiting for a huge evolution or shift in style/effectiveness at this point might want to just accept the 2019 Bills for what they are. Yesterday's game looked a lot like all the previous games: Some great drives where it looks like the offense can't be stopped, some long stretches of putrid play, letting an inferior team hang around for too long, and eventually re-gaining effectiveness just long enough to put the game away at the end. Deja vu all over again. 2.) In the "be careful what you wish for" department: Every Bills fan and football analyst coming into the season knew that Josh Allen needed to learn to take care of the football, make routine throws, and keep his offense on schedule. Wouldn't you know it? That's EXACTLY what he's doing right now. He's gone 13 quarters without an interception, he throws effectively in the short area . of the field, he has generally cleaned up his inaccuracy and poor mechanics -- save for his fumble-itis and occasional mechanical lapse, he's become an effective game manager. A look at this QB rating yesterday reveals a quality day from Allen. Indeed, he wasn't asked to do much, but what he WAS asked to do, he did pretty well. That leads to the big philosophical question, though: Have the Bills coaches taken the Josh Allen out of Josh Allen? He was drafted 7th overall because he's a competitive, dynamic, improvisational, playmaking gunslinger. The question becomes, can the Bills coaches effectively turn Allen into a game manager with whom the team can win games NOW without sacrificing for the long term what made Allen so exciting/promising to begin with? Past Hall of Fame QBs like Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger have taken the route of being game managers early on in their careers and leaning on defense and a running game, only to turn into game-dominators later on in their careers. Is that the path the Bills want to take with Allen? Is that the best path to take? It seemed until just yesterday that Buffalo wanted Allen to throw at all costs, even when it seemed more advisable to run (see Eagles game, week 8). Things changed yesterday. Will that change stick? Allen's road of development seems to have hit an unexpected turn. Where will he end up, and are the coaches doing the right thing? I don't have the answer, but it sure is a fascinating question. 3.) In the "this dude's got it" department: Devin Singletary looks special. He just does. Not like "oh, he can start in this league for a few years". I'm talking like SPECIAL. Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson, and LeSean McCoy -- all men with reasonable cases for the Hall of Fame -- have all commented on how natural and how special he looks. We all saw it with our own eyes yesterday. There were NUMEROUS plays where it looked like he'd be stopped for a loss or no gain, or where he'd be met head-on in the hole, only to put the opposing defender through a spin cycle and leave him on the turf, grasping at air. That's Shady McCoy type stuff. That's BARRY SANDERS type stuff. I know, I know, I need to slow the hype train. I'm telling you, though, Devin Singletary looks like a great -- not just good, but GREAT -- player. 4.) Speaking of how great Singletary was yesterday and how refreshing and welcome it was to see him finally get so many touches...a quick reminder: There is only one football, and there are only so many targets to go around offensively. For weeks, we all wanted to see #26 get the ball early and often. Yesterday, he finally did. BUT....by featuring the running game and by giving Singletary so many touches, there were necessarily less targets available for guys like Beasley, Knox, Brown, and McKenzie. I saw two different comments on Twitter yesterday about players that didn't get enough looks: One about Beasley, one about Brown. It may be true that both of those players DO need lots of targets on a weekly basis, but again, there's only so many targets to go around. Me? I'd say a day in which your lead running back has 140 yards and a score, Beasley catches a touchdown, and Brown collects another 75 yards (including a game-sealing 3rd and 18 catch) counts as a good distribution/usage of targets. There's only one football. 5.) It's amazing that the Bills are able to do what they're doing defensively this season without a legitimate, high quality edge rushing presence. Hughes is fine, but has only 1.5 sacks on the season. I like Trent Murphy, but he doesn't exactly strike fear into the opposition. When your leading sacker is Jordan Phillips, it means you need more pass rushing talent. To have such a good defense in spite of this is a testament to quality coaching and talented players on the back end and at linebacker. But make no mistake, the Bills need to invest top dollar and/or high draft picks into the defensive end position this offseason. For those clamoring for the offense to be top priority this offseason: Don't be surprised to see yet ANOTHER 1st round pick used on defense. For as good as the Bills defense (usually) looks this season, just imagine how it could look with some truly frightening edge rushers. 6.) Tre Day with another big play in the 4th quarter. People often throw around the term "playmaker" in football. But what does it mean? Well, clearly, it should mean a player who makes a play when it matters most, when the game is on the line, and who can singlehandedly change the outcome of said game. Tre'Davious White is a playmaker. He has singlehandedly won the Bills several games throughout his career, beginning in his rookie season and continuing into this year, where he saved us in the Miami game. And yesterday's effort? It may not have been an interception or forced fumble, but it was a VERY timely sack at a point in the game where the Redskins only needed a touchdown and 2-point conversion to even up the score. Big Play Tre. Playmaker. The Extra Point: Somewhere along the line during the past 20 years of losing football, a lot of Bills fans forgot how to behave when the team actually wins. If you went on social media yesterday during or after the Bills game, you'd have had a hard time deciding whether the Bills were 6-2 or 2-6. The amount of venom, negativity, overreaction, hyperbole, and downright ANGER were astonishing. I saw calls to "Fire Daboll!", "Bench Allen!", "Strip Frazier of playcalling duties!"...I mean...WHAT?! To be honest, the over-the-top reactionary lunacy and suffocating negativity are both confounding and embarrassing. When did so much of Bills Mafia become so insufferable and unreasonable? Now, to be clear: It is absolutely ok and fully legitimate to point out areas of improvement after a game or to discuss things that disappointed you. It is ok to say that the offense isn't where it needs to be, that the playcalling needs to improve, that the QB needs to improve, etc...But there is a right way and a wrong way to go about this. The WRONG WAY is to fall into the trap of extremes. Just because the playcalling needs to be better doesn't mean we should fire Brian Daboll. Just because the QB needs to improve doesn't mean he's a bust. Just because the Bills are taking advantage of an easy schedule doesn't mean they're fully illegitimate Paper Tigers. Recognizing that the team has much room for improvement is possible WHILE ALSO enjoying the fact that they're winning football games. It isn't an either/or proposition! What people's reactions to this Bills team really come down to are their expectations. Me? I do not expect this team to be elite week in and week out. People seem to forget that they are in year three of a complete teardown and rebuild. And it's important to keep perspective in mind when considering where they are as a team: In year one, the teardown year, they made the playoffs. In year two, they had a losing record, but acquired the two most key pieces of the team: The quarterbacks of the offense and defense. In year three, they're on pace to probably make the playoffs, but they're lacking on offense and, at times, on defense, too. But here's the thing: the year three Bills are NOT a finished product. No one at One Bills Drive said "we're going to completely turn over the roster in three seasons, with only two players remaining, and by year three, it's Super Bowl or bust!". I realize that some fans may WANT that to be the case, but it's simply not. Beane and McDermott said time and time again that they want to build this team for long term, sustained success. Sometimes that means having mid-season growing pains. Sometimes it means not trading for an Emmanuel Sanders or signing a Josh Gordon. But their goal -- and it's beyond obvious that they do HAVE a clear goal towards which they are logically and methodically working -- is a team that can compete every single year. This year? They're ahead of schedule. They are 6-2. SIX AND TWO! Think of where you were in your life the last time the Bills were 6-2 through eight games, in the year 1993. Think about that! 26 seasons come and gone from then until now. Think of all the Dick Jaurons, Mike Mularkeys, Chan Gaileys, Jon DiGiorgios, Kelly Holcombs, Shaud Williamses, and Ko Simpsons that have rolled through Buffalo in those years. Think of all the long, cold drives home from Orchard Park you've made after another losing effort, despondent in the knowledge that the Bills were having another losing season, that there was no hope on the horizon. Think of all the wasted seasons. And now? 6-2, with what looks like a really bright future and a bright front office and coaching staff and possible franchise QB....and a lot of Bills fans can't or won't enjoy it. A real shame. Life is short, and of all things, following sports is supposed to be FUN! If you can't have fun while your favorite team is 6-2, then when CAN you have fun? Bills fans: It's okay to want improvement. It's okay to want a Lombardi trophy. But for your own health and happiness, and for the sake of the rest of us who just want to enjoy this winning season: Learn to enjoy the ride! Learn to want better for your team AND be happy that they're winning games. And if you can't do that, at least try not spewing your venomous negativity on the rest of us. After all, it could be ANOTHER 26 years before we see 6-2 again!

?

Yes! I've been advocating for having both Foster and McKenzie active on the same day and actually USING them both for a while now. This offense needs more explosiveness. If they wind up starting Brown and Foster on the edges, with Beasley and McKenzie in the slot, I'm gonna be thrilled. Love it.

Indeed. And yet, what a loss it was! He was arguably the best player on our defensive line before he got hurt. A real shame.