Logic

Thanks as always for the post. Yesterday was the most fun I've had watching football during a non-Bills Sunday. Jets-Vikings, Chiefs-Bengals, and Dolphins-49ers were all great games on their own, but were even more interesting because of the playoff seeding ramifications they had on the Bills. I couldn't settle on an early window game, so for the first time ever, I watched NFL Red Zone for the whole three hours. It was excellent! commercial-free football, jumping around from game to game, whichever had the most exciting action at any given moment. The completist part of me missed the "chess match" aspect of watching one game from start to finish. But that was more than made up for by the ability to compare and contrast the different styles, strengths and weakness of each team as Scott Hanson jumped from game to game, and by the fact that I didn't have to sit through any commercials. Just constant, non-stop football. I'm not sure what took me so long to come around to the Red Zone channel, but boy was it fun! The Chiefs, as pointed out on social media today, are 1-5 in their last six games against the Bills and Bengals -- and are 13 seconds away from being 0-6 in those games. The Chiefs are still talked about as the class of the AFC by almost everyone, so I found that to be a pretty interesting fact. The Dolphins look like a different team when they go against a top 16 defense. Tua was totally off yesterday. All QBs have off days. We saw our own QB have a series of them just this season. Whatever it was about going against the 49ers, Tua was missing gimme throws left and right. It was downright bizarre how inaccurate he was. Bills seem to be exiting their slump at just the right moment. Win five winnable (not easy by any means, but all winnable) games and they get a bye and home field. An exciting month of December football ahead.

è stata una bella domenica!

I've always heard Green Bay fans are the absolute nicest people and kindest hosts to visiting fans from other teams. There's no part of me that believes that Jacksonville fans are nicer or more welcoming than them. The rudest fans in my mind would belong to the Eagles and Jets, but being as those people primarily are from Philly and Jersey, that's no surprise. As for Bills fans...I love 'em, they're my people, they do all the charity stuff and have the great tailgating and are super loyal, etc, etc....but my god, I have seen some of the most disgusting and ridiculous inebriation-related spectacles and ordeals at Bills games. Just really gross stuff. Super embarrassing, a lot of it. Bills games so often seem like a "getting blackout drunk" festival, where football is secondary to binge drinking on a Sunday morning.

What Boatdrinks said. The easiest way to understand Nick Wright and to put him into context is to realize that he's basically a pro wrestling heel (bad guy). Like Roddy Piper or Ric Flair. His whole schtick, his whole gimmick, is to be an arrogant antagonist to all non-Chiefs football fans. He deliberately employs a cartoonishly over the top persona and antics to get a rise out of viewers. He comes from the Skip Bayless, Colin Cowherd school of "sports journalism", which is to say that he's an entertainer, a circus barker, and a clown. He is NOT an actual analyst, thoughtful journalist, or knowledgeable scribe. One of his most tried and true go-to antics is to constantly belittle the Bills and to never, under any circumstances, give any credit to them or to Josh Allen. It always works, too. It always gets Bills fans all riled up and irate. As they say, bad publicity is better than no publicity. Case in point, had anyone here ever even HEARD of Nick Wright before he started badmouthing the Bills? Laugh at the clown, yell at the clown, ignore the clown. Whatever works for you. But at the end of the day, just remember that it's all schtick. It's all a bit. This is what he does.

I sort of can't believe it actually all happened! Once Jimmy G went out with injury, I assumed Dolphins victory. I also assumed Mahomes would do Mahomes things and the Chiefs would win late. Here we sit -- after all the injuries, the Josh Allen UCL drama, the epic snowstorm, the brutal three game road stretch in 12 days -- number one seed in the AFC, with five winnable games in front of us. What a day to be a Bills fan!

I would love it if the Bills added OBJ, but all of this talk and hype has kind of moved me to the "I just don't care that much any more" phase. If they get him, he'll help the offense. If they don't, they'll have more money to re-sign guys like Edmunds, Oliver, and Poyer. At the end of the day, OBJ just doesn't seem like the type of guy to turn down the bright lights of NYC or Dallas for Orchard Park, NY. If we get him, great. If not, I'll shrug and move on.

Nah, the bill always comes due. See: Tyreek Hill, Devante Adams, AJ Brown, the Rams not re-signing Von Miller, and the sorry state the Rams are in in general this season. You can get as cute as you want and keep kicking the can down the road, but the bill does eventually come due.

Since nothing happens in a vacuum, the real question is this... If signing OBJ means that Ed Oliver or Tremaine Edmunds walks after this season, are you cool with it? Are you willing to gamble that a 30-year-old WR coming off two torn ACLs will be a significant enough upgrade to the offense to potentially justify losing out on the re-signing of a young, defensive cornerstone? I honestly don't know what my answer is. I can see that Josh needs more weaponry, and a HEALTHY (that's the key word) OBJ could be big, but...we also all just saw what this defense looks like without Edmunds, and it's not pretty. Tough questions for Brandon Beane.

If I'm not mistaken, the analytics talking about his ability in coverage only factor in plays where he is targeted. They talk about the success rate of the specific player he is covering when in a man coverage situation. These analytics do not account for the difference his size and giant wingspan make in terms of the way they close or shrink passing lanes and, thus, deter QBs from attempting certain throws in certain parts of the field. In short, I don't think statistical or analytical metrics can very effectively measure the impact Edmunds has on the passing defense as a whole. In order to illustrate what his difference means, just go back and watch the 1st half of the Vikings game vs the 2nd half, when he was sitting with injury. Or compare the Lions passing production in the middle of the field vs that of the Pats. I also think that the characterization that he doesn't tackle the RB does not accurately reflect the way he is playing this season. In past years, I'd agree with you. This season, though, our improved defensive line -- particularly along the interior -- has been absorbing blocks and allowing Edmunds to flow to the ball and get tackles for loss. Even in last night's game, he had SEVERAL nice stops at or behind the line of scrimmage against Stevenson, who is NOT an easy guy to bring down. I don't think it's about potential any more for me. It's about what he is RIGHT NOW. I think that what he has shown THIS SEASON -- his value to the defense and the way that it has played with him vs the way it has played without him -- allows me to think that he's a big and important piece of our defense and would not be easy to replace.

I just really can't imagine watching the Bills defense as a whole without Edmunds in the lineup vs the Bills defense as a whole WITH Edmunds in the lineup and not seeing the night and day difference. And if you think "defending the run" is the only factor to account for, I don't know what to say. Edmunds is 1 of 1. There is not currently another middle linebacker in the NFL that can do what he does. I'll admit, I'd love it if he forced more turnovers. But seeing him easily carry the inside receiver in a trips set 20 yards up field and seeing him just completely erase the middle in the passing game, and seeing how his presence and massive wingspan deters opposing QBs from trying certain throws, and seeing how his presence impacts players like Dane Jackson (who can play outside leverage without being exposed the way he was when Edmunds was out)...it's so clear to me that he is a massive part of the success of the defense as a whole -- splash plays or not. He is a linebacker by name, but almost functions like an enormous defensive back. He's that fast and rangy, and he has that much impact on the passing game. Seeing what the Bills pass defense looked like without him vs with him this year was the last thing I needed to see to convince me, as much as I was once against it...that Beane should find a way to pay that man.

Per Joe Buscaglia's post-game snap counts and observations, Tre White played all but two series in the game. One of them he came out for a stinger and the Bills were being cautious, and the other was at the end of the 4th when the game was already in hand. Essentially, he played the whole game. Honestly, Mac is a lot like Tua to me. That is, he's a guy with a sharp mind and good accuracy and anticipation, but he's limited athletically. The thing to do with a guy like that is to give him a creative play caller and to surround him with RAC weapons and just ask him to distribute like a point guard and let his playmakers make plays. The Dolphins set Tua up exactly the right way, and we're seeing the results right now. The Pats, on the other hand, have done the exact WRONG thing with Mac, surrounding him with a bunch of nobody receivers and saddling him with an awful playcaller who has never been an OC before. Unless and until the Pats follow the Dolphins blueprint, Mac will fail, and the Pats will have no one to blame but themselves.

Knox was targeted ONE time last night. One. I realize he dropped that pass. Still, is that a reason not to go back to your super athletic tight end and the second highest pass catcher on your team for the entire rest of the game? I really liked the game Dorsey called last night, as I have said in the post-game thread. But I still maintain that his scheming of Knox leaves a ton to be desired, and that despite the occasional bad drop, Knox is NOT the one to blame for his lack of production in the passing game.

100% this. Not only that, but there are certain holds I'm okay with, and this was one of them. When a linebacker comes untouched through the line and is about to absolutely obliterate your QB, I'm fine with taking the penalty instead. Not only does it save your QB from the hit, it also saves the down. Yes, the penalty results in loss of yardage, but a sack normally results in loss of yardage anyway. So 2nd and 20 and a healthy, untouched QB is better to me than, say 3rd and 11 and letting Judon bury your guy in the turf. It's a different story if it negates a TD, but as you say, I doubt Josh gets that pass off if not for the hold.

Thought this was really interesting, from Joe Buscaglia's Athletic article today (paywall): https://theathletic.com/3960194/2022/12/02/bills-patriots-result-thursday-night-football/ The Cook and Hines package returns with a vengeance Against the Browns in Week 11, the Bills flashed a personnel package including both Cook and Nyheim Hines as a means to put pressure on the defense in different ways. They did it on a handful of snaps, but it wasn’t a heavy piece of their game plan. Then against the Lions in Week 12, the Bills mostly went away from that personnel grouping, and Hines himself as the back had only four snaps total. But offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey may have been keeping it in his back pocket for the Patriots game, as they used Cook and Hines on the field together a whopping 12 times throughout the game. While it doesn’t seem like a lot, that’s far more two-running back sets than the Bills had ever run previously. The Bills effectively used Hines in a similar way Brian Daboll used Isaiah McKenzie as a gadget receiver several years ago. And despite some plays that were duds, it was highly productive with some chunk plays. The Bills gained 78 yards on those 12 plays, for an average of 6.5 yards each time. Considering the Bills only averaged 4.6 yards per play on their other 60 plays, that Cook and Hines group gave them a major edge as it was sprinkled in throughout the game.

Even if he was JUST a quality, dependable kick and punt returner and 4 phase special teams player, he'd have been a good acquisition based on how little the Bills gave up to get him. The fact that he has started to be involved in multi-RB packages on offense and is acting as pre-snap motion/eye candy and outlet receiver option for Josh on RPOs is a bonus. And there's also the matter of that little thing called depth. If Singletary or Cook have to miss a few snaps or a few games, I'll feel MUCH better knowing we have Hines in the fold.

Last night was a strange experiece for me. I'm normally Mr "pass the ball!", because it's clear that's how you win in the 2022 NFL, and because not passing the ball means taking it out of the hands of the best player on our team. That said, last night was the first time in a while that I really WANTED them to hand the ball off on most snaps, because it was WORKING! It seemed like the running game was getting between 2 and 5 yards on every play. Keeping the offense in manageable down and distance and controlling the clock was such a sight for sore eyes. Kudos goes to the offensive line for its run blocking (the OL was awful at pass blocking in this game, but exceptional at run blocking) and to Dorsey for sticking with the run game, which he has failed to do at times this year. I was really encouraged to see Cook be essentially the featured back for most of the night. I'm not sure what lead to it. Maybe Motor dropping that pass on the first drive? Maybe Cook had "that look in his eye" all week in practice? Whatever it was, it was awesome to see. As much as I've loved seeing the Bills be one of the pass heaviest teams in the league the past couple years, I am more than okay with them morphing into a balanced offense with a good running game this year -- ESPECIALLY in a season where our quarterback's throwing arm is not at 100%.

I agree. I could feel it during the game and I can feel it again this morning. Hard to put it into words, but... For the first time since the Chiefs game, the Bills LOOKED like the Bills to me. Not the flat, unsure-of-themselves, mistake-prone Bills, who I watch with anxiety and disappointment and a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach. Those Bills showed up from the 3rd quarter of the Packers game through the last couple drives of the Lions game. I had this hope that the way they won that Lions game would be the turning point of the season, where they exit their annual slump and get back to being who we know they can be. I can't say I was confident it would actually HAPPEN against a talented Belichick defense lastnight, but I'm so glad that it did. Most fun I've had watching a Bills game since we faced the Chiefs. It feels like Josh is starting to be Josh again, and it feels like the defense is back on track (healthy players equals a much better defense, who'da thunk it?!). Glad the boys get this mini-bye, but excited to see them dominate the Jets. And then, to echo Diggs' sentiment on the sideline lastnight "I want the Dolphins!"

I happen to believe that that intangible energy, confidence, "swagger", whatever you want to call it...is a real and very important thing...ESPECIALLY with defensive players. Shaq and Jordan provide it in spades. I think our defense missed it while they were gone, and I think they benefit from it now that it's back. It helps that both guys are playing well, too, but the intangible spark they provides is noticeable to me.

Thanks for these. During the broadcast, you could definitely notice Knox open a lot. Part of it is that he's often schemed as a checkdown or a third option in this scheme, and Josh always wants to go for the biggest available play. Still, I can't help but wonder if Dorsey could do a better job drawing up 5-7 "Dawson Knox plays", where HE'S the primary target, and the play is designed to go to him. He's talented enough, in my opinion, to warrant such consideration. Then, when teams are locking Diggs up (which hasn't happened often lately, to be fair), the Bills have a changeup to throw. Bottom line, though? Occasional bad drop or not, Dawson Knox is not the problem. I feel certain of that.

That was the most I've enjoyed watching a Bills game since they faced the Chiefs. In my opinion, it was the first time since then that they mostly looked like the team we know they can be and expect them to be. Josh looked more like, well...Josh, too. Some thoughts from the game, which I'll just leave here because I don't want to make a LAMP post. - THAT was Buffalo Bills defense. Yeah, yeah, yeah, "it's just Mac Jones", "Pats stink on offense"...whatever. That was a 6-5, Belichick-coached team at home, with a hammer at running back, a couple good tight ends, and a guy coming off his best passing game of the year. After the first drive or so, once they got their feet under them, the Bills defense played fast, hit hard, communicated well, and flew to the football. There were occasional lapses into bad tackling (though some of that is the fact that Rhamondre Stevenson is an absolute unit), but for the most part, this night saw a return to the defensive form we saw early in the season. Which leads us to... - Edmunds, Milano, Poyer, and Tre White being in the game all made a HUGE difference. Add Rousseau to that list, too. A healthy defense is a much better defense. Imagine that? Edmunds, in particular, is really showing his value this season. I don't know how anyone could watch a game with Edmunds in the lineup and then a game without him and conclude anything other than "he's massively important to the Bills' defensive success". - Xavier Rhodes looked good at corner all night. The Elam benching was a head scratcher that I don't care to get into here, but I thought the outside trio of White, Jackson, and Rhodes, played quite well. Jackson looks like a different guy when Edmunds and White are in the lineup. Seeing Tre White back and playing well was such a sight for sore eyes. - Shaq Lawson is the Bills' third best defensive end. He's really been playing well and bringing juice to that DL. Lord knows we'll need him the next few games with Von out. Excellent signing by Beane. - Oliver was wrecking plays. Again. He's gone full "beast mode" the last two games. He'll be the main guy picking up the passing rushing slack the next few weeks, IMO. - This was Dorsey's best game as a play caller. Multi-RB sets, motion, eye candy, sticking with the run, long, sustained drives, getting Diggs involved, getting Davis involved (drops notwithstanding)...just excellent stuff from Dorsey. I said before the game that he'd really need to bring his "A game" to beat the Pats defense, and he did. If this is a sign of things to come, I'm encouraged. - Josh looked better this week. He still had a boneheaded play or two (one, in particular, that should have been picked and he had no reason to throw), but all in all, a big improvement over the last couple weeks. - I love Stefon Diggs. That's all. I just love him.

In my opinion, Dorsey doesn't scheme him very well. He may be getting open often, but he's not usually the primary read or the person to whom the play is designed to go. So often these days, I just see Knox running a basic flat route to the sideline. Notice how his catches always seem to be near the sideline and rarely in the middle of the field? That wasn't the case the last couple years. It's scheme. The confounding thing is that this Bills offense could really use some middle-of-the-field production in the passing game. A guy like Knox, who is a world class talent at the tight end position, should be absolutely feasting in the middle with all the attention paid to Diggs and to Davis going deep. For that matter, Davis was used more effectively as a big slot under Daboll, too. Much of the middle of the field woes this Bills passing game is facing could be solved if Dorsey more effectively schemed Knox and Davis. That is my contention.

I hope every Bills fan watching on Amazon Prime struck around to watch that post-game interview. It was gold. My favorite part was Josh admitting that one of the reasons he took the Gillette sponsorship was to troll the Patriots and their fans. I'll admit, the extra cherry on top of the "soundly beating the Pats on national TV for the third straight time" sundae was seeing Josh Allen as the face of Gillette in those commercials that were being shown while his team was laying the smackdown in Gillette Stadium. Most fun I've had watching the Bills since the Chiefs game.

I presume the OP was joking, but... If an ACTUAL O/U on receiving yards for John Brown was set tonight (and I haven't checked the books, so maybe it has), it'd be...what...like 9.5 yards?

I believe that if you go back to my pre-draft posts, you'd find that I openly advocated for the Bills to spend a high pick on a wide receiver, and to spend premium assets on the offense in general. Where I generally differed from you and ScottLaw was that I did not feel -- as you and Scott seemed to -- that it was the ONLY way forward, and that not doing so would constitute an outright, unforgivable mistake by Beane. Given that the Bills offense is currently ranked 2nd in PPG 11 games into the season, and that the defense is ranked 5th in PPG allowed despite being absolutely ravaged by injuries, I don't feel I was too far off base. I do admit that I poked fun at you and ScottLaw about the concerns over the outside WR positions. I felt that Gabriel Davis would step up and become a viable #2. For all of the vitriol thrown his way this season, Davis is currently ranked 23rd in the league in receiving yards and has as many receiving TDs as Mark Andrews or Justin Jefferson do. Where I thought they could use help in terms of weaponry -- and I still feel this way -- is in the slot. I DID think that between McKenzie, Crowder, and Shakir, one of them would step up. I admit to being totally wrong in this case. Obviously, none of them has.

I always kind of felt like the "back by the Jets game" timeline seemed really optimistic. I don't blame Von at all for being optimistic. That's a good mindset to have. I just think it's really asking a lot for an injury like that to only cause two games missed. In any case, I really, really thought Von had torn his ACL. The fact that he didn't, and that he seems more likely than not to be available for the playoffs, is a huge plus. Time for the young pups to step up.