oldmanfan

You want to discuss regression analysis? You really want to go there? Young QBs tend to fluctuate, have good games and bad. The person I was responding to seemed to suggest progression involved game to game to game improvement. That's not necessarily the case.

But some of them have. People have shown you examples of guys with less than 60% rates that are successful QBs. And if I were to go through your site I'd find some over 60% who didn't. Your statement is simply wrong and ignores evidence right in front of you.

I've said before that statistics are thrown around inappropriately in sports, especially football. There are so many dependent and independent variables to throw into a proper analysis that simply looking at one number such as completion percentage rarely can be correlated to much of anything.

You realize if a guy throws 40 times a game (not far fetched for the college game) the difference between 60% and 56% is one pass, right? And that could be like one dropped ball. And statistically that's not really different.

If it's true all four rookie QBs will fail. They are all under that I believe right now. Is it your contention they will all fail?

He doesn't need surgery according to the reports. So your rant is now moot, as if blaming them for a guy hitting right on the elbow with his helmet wasn't cause enough for this to be moot.

I do not recall a single post (and back then it was the old BBMB site I was on) that cared about Goodwin leaving because he had lost so much time. Woods never even negotiated with the Bills, and the Bills knew he wanted to go back to the West coast. So it's revisionist to say now that we should have kept those guys. People complained about Hogan and Watkins too. You have the advantage of hindsight. GMs don't.

Sure there were.

I agree we won't see definitive progress till he has a better line and WR corps. But I am seeing good signs of progress.

I haven't watched the other guys much. I did watch Rosen for about a half two weekends ago, because he was the guy I was hoping they'd take. I saw him overthrow several guys, got happy feet a little in the pocket. Wasn't as on target as I thought he'd be. Did seem to be ahead o f Allen in terms of reads and getting the ball out on time. Bottom line: pluses and minuses like all young QBs.

I was tempted to say unethical as well, but chose not to. I see your point though.

That's what a sprain is, a slight tear to a ligament.

I looked at each passing play from Sunday's first half, and what I saw was that he was more accurate especially on short throws than he was earlier in the year. And he was getting the ball out quick and was more decisive, although that may have been related to play calls. I'm seeing him make moves in the right direction.

They could have Carr next year if they want. He was the golden boy, and now looks like he's on the way out of Oakland. Give Allen time.

I see your point. It 's just that you don't want to fuel unwarranted speculation.

I don't know. Terry Bradshaw? Jim Kelly? Carson Wentz? Phil Simms? Let's make it simple - pretty much any QB that comes into the league. They are all "raw" in terms of facing NFL defenses and their complexities.

Ok, anatomy professor time here. It's kind of ridiculous for this doc to try and diagnose what happened with Allen without actually seeing any data, such as the ligament test or the MRI. Taking a shot on the elbow like he did, and assuming it hit the ulnar nerve, he would have had trouble gripping the ball. The ulnar nerve supplies the muscles on the little finger side of the hand, and also sensation to that area. If those were knocked out then he would not have been able to grip the ball well. If the UCL was bruised, would have caused pain and also difficulty gripping. I read some where that he had range of motion after the game in the elbow. That would be reassuring. I think it's jumping the gun big time to presume a ligament tear of any significance, although the MRI will show that.

I see where you're coming from now. I would say he looks better in some ways even comparing to the Vikings game. The things folks are getting on him about are his ability to get pre-snap reads and go to a guy quickly, his pocket presence, and his accuracy particularly on short passes. I think he looked pretty good on all those Sunday. Now, that may be because the plays are calling for less reads. I don't know that; none of us would without knowing the play calls. But on most of his drop backs Sunday he looked like he knew right where he wanted to go with the ball and delivered it. That to me is progress. Other than the horrible first pass he either was putting the ball right on guys, or missing where it was a smart miss and where defenders could not make a play on the ball. He still needs to hang in the pocket longer on some throws. I think that will come with time. If what you are saying is that progress can only be defined as being better week 1, vs 2, then 2, vs 3, and so on, I would disagree. Young QB's will have ups and downs, good games and bad. Mayfield for example had a tough day this past Sunday, but I would not say he regressed. He just had a day that will happen with young QBs as they figure things out.

Do you know what that means? it means he did n not have a concussion, and thus was not hurt. He got a helmet right on the elbow. Not much you can do about that. So no he is not injury prone.

How is my example flawed? Please, go back like I did and watch the plays. Then if you think it's flawed, explain why.

Of course you think it's flawed. You have confirmation bias, I think. When I watched the game the first time I did so on DVR because I was tied up Sunday afternoon. So I focused my attention on Allen, just to see how he'd look. last night then after all the hullabaloo about how he's terrible, not progressing, etc., I went back and slow motioned through these plays. I think if you objectively look at the plays on Sunday it is obvious he's done better than his bad game against the Pack. He was much more decisive with the ball. That may be because he's only getting one or two reads per play, but the ball was coming out quicker to be sure. The other thing was accuracy especially on short throws and while his first pass was God awful there really wasn't any other throws that you could say were way off target. The one throw he made that I thought was risky was when he tried to hit Zay in the corner of the end zone, and that ball could have been intercepted. Shouldn't have thrown that, but it brings up another point that people make, which I think is flawed. The idea that he has guys open all the time and doesn't see them. That paly everyone was blanketed, and I saw a couple others where guys just weren't open. Do like I did, go back and watch each play. Watch objectively.

From yesterday when I was asked the same question. I went back and looked at each passing play of the first half. Earlier I was asked to explain why I thought Allen showed progress today vs. the Packers, his worst game. So I've gone through passing plays from the game to see how I think he did. My focus was how accurate he was and whether I felt he was making quicker decisions pre-snapand where to go with the ball. Was he decisive, did he make his read and get the ball out. Things like that. With that said, here we go. And I would love to have some feedback and discussion vs. the "he sucks" kind of stuff. 1st quarter, Drive 1 1. Horrible throw to Clay. Not even close. Just awful. 2. Throw to McCoy. Hung in pocket for a good amount of time, good escape, risky pass back across but his arm strength is an asset there 3. 2nd pass to Clay. Decisive read and very accurate. 4. Swing to Clay. Again decisive, pass was a little low 5. Benjamin: long pass into double coverage. Threw it long. Better long than short into the double coverage- I think he wanted to put it up high for Benjamin to go get but was too long 6. Over the middle to Zay. I think if Zay didn't get tackled it's completed. Again made his read quickly and got the ball out. Second Drive 1. Went through progression to two guys, saw nothing, got yardage scrambling up the middle 2. Sacked. Looked at his first read and rush was getting to him. Thought he might have had more time to maybe get to a second read but I didn't see a safety valve. But did not try to spin out backwards or make an ill conceived desperation throw like against the Pack Third Drive 1. Quick out to Ray Ray. Decisive and on target. Gets criticized for not being accurate on short throws but was right on the money. 2. Bullet to Clay. Again decisive and right on target, fit between two defenders. 3. Rushed by Watt. Going backward threw to sideline for no gain. Showed his arm strength but not a great decision, should have just thrown it away. 4. Short pass to Clay. Went through progression to second read. Short no gain. Not much to say. 5. Sideline to James. Low and outside where only Zay could get it. Placement was the right idea but could have been a bit higher. May also been a timing thing with Zay not getting to the spot quicker. Fourth Drive. 1. Quick out to Benjamin. Again a decisive read and on target throw. 2. Runs for first down but holding negated play. Thought he locked into his first read too long. 3. Sack by Watt. Kept his head up looking for an open guy, eyes were not down looking for rushers as he's done sometimes. Needed to sense it more and throw the ball away. Fifth Drive: the swing to Shady to close the half. Nothing remarkable either way. So looking at this half, when I say I saw improvement, I saw him being more decisive with the ball, which to me means his pre-snap thought process was improved. He was generally more accurate, and while he should be with short throws that is one of the criticisms he gets. Need to do the third quarter but have to make the birthday dinner for the daughter. Would like to get others' thoughts.

There wasn't a fan on this or any other site who shed a tear when Goodwin left. This kind of hyprocritical revisionism is ridiculous.

I'm waiting for you to look at my analysis from yesterday. You're the pot calling the kettle black here.

He calls the plays, so of course he has the responsibility for what's going on.