HappyDays

Oh my God the Falcons are throwing this draft away. I'm actually laughing out loud.

I'm a tad nervous because I've been pumping up Coleman as a great pick, and now if he sucks I'm gonna look stupid. But man his size and competitiveness and hands just get me really excited. Allen is a gunslinger. He just got his guy he can launch the ball to downfield 1v1.

McDermott and Pegula are talking presumably to the prospect on the phone. We're sticking and picking.

@YoloinOhio enjoying the presentation?

Ran the fastest gauntlet time of any WR at the combine. I just don't care about the 40 time. He is a 2nd round prospect for me, not a 1st round prospect. I recognize his flaws. I am betting on his size and competitiveness and hands. All things considered I want to draft him plus one of the other 5ish WRs that are considered 2nd rounders. Bet on two to double our chances.

Sorry but that's a lazy comparison. I respect people that don't like him as a prospect, but scout Keon Coleman, not Kelvin Benjamin. I also didn't like him as a prospect when I first read his profile. Then I watched all his snaps and I grew to really like him.

Kelvin Benjamin was a good WR until he gave up on trying. But anyways Coleman is not the same prospect. He's more athletic and better with the ball in his hands.

Keon Coleman is reportedly very high football character. He is motivated to do well in the NFL so he can provide for his family. He is definitely a character fit for us. Physically he has the tools that I know Beane would love. And he's young, just about to turn 21 in May.

I would honestly rather trade a 2025 2nd than our 2024 3rd. It might be short sighted of me but I want three players from the top 100 this year, and we still have another 2025 2nd in the bag from the Diggs trade. My preference is Franklin/Coleman. But any one of these two is fine by me, preferably two that complement each other well: Franklin Coleman McConkey Polk Mitchell

To get #36 and #40, we could give up #33, #60, and one of our 2025 2nds. That would be equal value by the Rich Hill chart. It is a risk though because NE needs a WR. But we could double dip at WR at #36 and #40 in that scenario.

I think Deebo they technically could because he's on a normal contract, not the 5th year option, so the 49ers could theoretically (I think) agree to retain most or all of his salary. Nor sure on the particulars though. We have just over $3M in cap space right now and we need room to sign our draft picks so while maybe not technically impossible, it feels like a massively unlikely prospect. Aiyuk on the other hand is literally impossible as far as I know. His 5th year option cap hit can't be retained. We would need to free up more cap space than we have the ability to just to put him on our roster even if only temporarily while we work out an extension.

Eh the Bills get dangled as bait in a lot of these trade discussions. But the trades we end up pulling off are never the ones we're rumored to be in on. Nobody had us trading for Diggs. Nobody has us trading up for Elam or Kincaid. We tried trading for Von Miller before the Rams did - nobody reported this until after fact. I would wager the 49ers are dangling the Bills and/or Patriots as potential trade partners to incentivize the real trade partners to increase their offer. I could actually see the Pats making this move, it makes sense for them. Maybe the 49ers are putting it out there that their division rival with a slightly higher 2nd round pick is also in the conversation. I would just be really surprised if us trying to trade for Deebo Samuel or any player leaked into the media because it's never happened.

I'm like 75% sure we'll be taking your boy from Oregon tonight. We are not at the spot in our team's life cycle where we should be trading for a weathered WR that we have to commit major cap space to. Drafting a couple young studs tonight makes way more sense.

Yeah I get it. But I agree with what Beane said last night - you stick to your board and make the best decision for the Buffalo Bills. I don't want him flinching and making a wrong decision because he's scared of KC. If we had stuck at #28, I think by far the most likely scenario is we would have taken whoever we end up taking at #33 tonight, and then the Chiefs would have traded up to #29 or done whatever they needed to get Worthy. In that scenario they'd still get their guy and we wouldn't have a 3rd round pick. There's just no reason other than irrational anxiety not to take the free 3rd round pick at that point. And I come away respecting Beane for willing to make a move that LOOKS crazy to everybody, but logically makes a ton of sense. He didn't flinch, like he did when he traded up for Elam for example.

Yeah I don't want to trade down again. Stick and pick the best WR on your board. We don't need more picks. If anything we need to part with some of our day three picks. No way we are making four picks in R5. I expect us to draft two players by #55, pick another player in the mid-80s(ish), and ultimately make something like four total picks on day three. Last year we picked 6 players so picking 7 this year sounds about right, and we have 10 total picks to use to move up the board and make sure we get guys that we like.

It just makes sense. We lost 4 WRs - Diggs, Davis, Harty, Sherfield. Harty was replaced by Samuel, Sherfield was replaced by Hollins (in competition with Shorter). Our #1 and #2 outside WRs are still missing.

It's not about the 5th year option at all. When teams move one slot up the board, they are making sure another team doesn't jump them for the same player. Beane said in the presser he had calls to go back to the 40s or 50s. Moving up 59 spots on mid-day three is a very good deal that we got for basically nothing, unless of course Leggette becomes a star in which case we'll regret it. But if they didn't value him in the 1st round it was a no brainer.

As I've said a dozen time my #1 preferred outcome was trading out of the 1st to recoup a 3rd, then double dipping at WR in the 2nd round. We are on track to do exactly that. So I find myself one of the only Bills fans that is not just okay with what we did but elated. I just can't bring myself to care about the Chiefs getting Worthy when I'm very confident they would have gotten him one way or another if he was their guy.

I would be very happy with Franklin at #33. I've cooled on him a bit since he was my first draft crush, and we would still need to draft a big bodied guy to complete the room, but he has high upside traits that really excite me.

I just finished listening to it. Everything he said makes sense and echoes what I said earlier in the thread. He basically admitted their 1st round grades were wiped out by the time it got to their pick. He said he never wanted to give up #60 in a trade up so that limited the trade up options. So once the 1st round grades were gone he started taking calls to move back. On trading with KC specifically - he pushed back on the notion that we gave KC the player they wanted. Said they could have just traded up with the next team down, or maybe their player gets to their original pick anyways. He said in those discussions he's just making the best decision for the Buffalo Bills, not worrying about the team he's talking to. Mentioned that he's even had those conversations with our division rivals. He said he had other offers to move even further back into the 40s or 50s from #28 but didn't want to go back too far. He planned on picking at #32 but getting to move up 59 spots on day three to move back one spot was too enticing to turn down. Also he didn't exactly come out and say it but he somewhat implied that the added draft value he got could be used to move up on the board again tomorrow. I won't be surprised at all if we pick at say #33 and #50, giving up our 4th perhaps to make it happen. Beane still has to be right about the players he drafts tomorrow. But his execution tonight makes a ton of sense. He explained himself well.

It's actually just like him. What he showed us tonight is that his 1st round grade draft board dried up quickly. In 2022 he traded down multiple times in the 2nd round until finally taking Cook, because his 2nd round grades were wiped out. Beane is very consistent. He will trade up if value plus need match up. He will stay put if he has multiple players in the same tier that match the draft round. He will trade back if he has no players on his board valued in the current round. Most evaluators see this large group of 8-10 WRs after the top three as 2nd round talents. Beane clearly agrees. So he wasn't going to reach up his board in the 1st. He got some value back and now can take those players in their proper round. I'm pleased Beane showed some restraint. He is learning. ****Major asterisk that if he does something stupid like take Dejean at #33 I will revoke everything positive I've said about his strategy in this thread.

Right but if we weren't taking Worthy, I highly doubt anyone else before the Chiefs would have either. So it simply comes down to the fact that we didn't value Worthy in the 1st round. KC gave us a 3rd to draft a player they probably would have gotten anyways.

The stupid thing about this conversation is we could have just taken say Adonai Mitchell at #28. And then the Chiefs would have taken Worthy at #32 anyways. Whereas with the move we actually made we could take Mitchell at #33 while picking up an extra 3rd and a favorable day three swap. But because it "looks" worse fans are less happy about that scenario than the objectively worse first scenario.