HappyDays

Nah that's just basic hand fighting. That's never getting called nor should it be. DBs are allowed to place their hand on their man in coverage as long as they not forcibly restricting their movement. If DBs weren't allowed to do that they wouldn't be able to orient themselves in coverage and you might as well just eliminate pass defense at that point.

Their secondary reminded me of how our secondary used to look when Leslie Frazier was here. They were synchronized, getting appropriate depth on their drops, passing guys off well, and when it came time to plaster they plastered. Ours used to look like that until Frazier left and since then it's never looked the same. Vrabel is an excellent coach and it looks like they found their QB too. They need to add more legit pass catchers and more edge pass rush to be real championship contenders but they are probably one offseason away from being a real threat for the division, if they're not already there now.

I can't speak for all of your notes without going back and checking each play, but this is one I know you are wrong about. Here's the 2nd and 10 play: Cook isn't running a crosser, he's just the checkdown option and he ends up double covered. Allen quickly gets through his progressions and back to Cook because everything else is blanketed. However as he gears up to throw to him he sees the right most LB's body leverage has him in position to crush Cook even if the pass is completed. He wisely turns down the throw and goes into scramble mode because that's the only remaining option. And Knox (or Kincaid?) is never getting the ball on the scramble drill because his defender is directly behind him ready to break it up. Allen briefly points left as if to signal to him to break to the open space but Knox/Kincaid doesn't see it and at that point Allen has no options so he throws it away. I put this play's failure on Brady. The first read is Coleman running vertical against their best CB Gonzalez? Yeah that's not gonna get it done. It's hard to see the exact routes on the trips side because the all-22 camera weirdly doesn't show everything but it looks like everybody is just running verticals and all of the routes are easily capped. It doesn't look like this play ever had any good options unless Coleman flat out beat Gonzalez. Brady needs to be better than this in critical moments.

I tend to agree with everything you said here but I believe in Vrabel and it's easy to flush that week 1 loss when you consider it was their first game under a totally new coaching staff. They've been getting better and better since then so I'm inclined to believe that the team we saw the last two weeks is closer to the truth. That team still has flaws and will probably lose a couple games they shouldn't, but then again you could say that word for word about the Bills and not sound crazy.

This season McConkey has less yards, less TDs, a lower catch %, and a substantially lower receiving success rate than Coleman. While playing from an easier position on the field. Worthy has been banged up all year and his role has been easily supplanted by Tyquan Thornton who KC picked up off the scrap heap. Coleman has frustrated me this year but I'm willing to give him until his 3rd season to develop. The flashes are there but he needs to be a lot more consistent, otherwise he'll never be more than a jump ball role player. I still think the biggest mistake wasn't necessarily taking Coleman, it's that they only took Coleman. They either needed to double dip at WR in that draft to maximize the probability of success, or they needed to bring in a legit outside WR so Coleman wasn't forced into a high volume role too early. If Coleman never ends up developing into a legit top 2 WR I can forgive them for that, but I can't forgive them for leaving themselves such a low margin for error at the position by investing so little into it.

I know you're just joking but we have to be at least a little concerned about the Pats threatening for the division. They, like seemingly everybody else in this middling conference, have an easy schedule the rest of the way. Their toughest remaining games are at Bucs and at Ravens (assuming they are fielding a normal team by late December). And then of course their 2nd matchup against us which might decide the division, seriously. If they keep pace with our wins the rest of the season and beat us in that game, the division is theirs. I wouldn’t bet on it of course, they're still a young team and have some legit flaws on both sides of the roster. But I wouldn't bet on us running away with this thing either.

Okay so 1-2 players each. The OP points out 7 players the Bills have done this with just this season. It is a pattern, no denying that. That one year we rolled up a sprinter van to the nursing home and brought out John Brown and Cole Beasley. Every year they are choosing to wait to fill roster deficiencies with players that know the system instead of being proactive and filling the positions with talented players. And a bunch of the players that "know the system" have actually regressed this year so I don't even know what the benefit is anymore.

Wow. In Tremaine Edumunds years that's equivalent to 63 seasons.

I want the most talented players we can find from the top of the roster to the bottom. I am not at all worried about the exact number of LBs vs safeties on the PS. I want players that you can reasonably expect to call up and have them perform. Spector isn't that. He's someone they're comfortable with, that's all. For me it's less about this one move and more about the overarching philosophy that continues to get this team in trouble.

Okay my take is that I would rather have CJ Gardner-Johnson on the PS instead of Spector. Do you disagree? One of those guys has at least a small chance of helping the team later this year and one of them has no chance. We have to stop always choosing the culture fit that knows the system over the more talented player. That's how you end up with Tre White and his rubber band legs covering Stefon Diggs 1v1 in a meaningful game. I don't really care about the PS but the constant inability to be self-aware about ther own bad habits is really depressing.

One thing that's been on my mind and this feels like the best thread to post it, is I have a growing uncertainty about Joe Brady. I've praised him for knowing what his players do well and leaning into those strengths, and I stand by that. I think that is his best trait as an OC. However I don't think he excels at understanding where the opponent is vulnerable and game planning around those weaknesses. It kind of feels like every week we just come in playing our brand of offense regardless of the defensive personnel or play calls. There's a thin line between maintaining your identity and being stubborn. I think Brady has crossed that line too much this year. Pats game is a perfect example. I'm stealing this informatiom from Joe Marino's all-22 analysis. Leading up to the game Joe said the Pats have weak coverage LBs, and that one of our priorities should have been to get them into their base personnel and throw the ball into it. In his all-22 analysis he revealed that we got them into base personnel on 14 plays. But we only passed on 2 of those plays. Both passes were 20 yard completions to Kincaid. The 12 runs averaged 2.8 YPC... That represents a massive missed opportunity. We got the looks we wanted but didn't take advantage on nearly enough of them because our identity is that we run out of heavy personnel and that's that. Stubbornness hurt the offense on Sunday night. Brady is a pretty simple OC and that just isn't a great match with below average pass catching talent. He doesn't do a great job of putting defenders in conflict and scheming his players open, and our players aren't talented enough to work open all on their own. So it's a bad marriage and the only possible solution this season is to add better pass catching talent because Brady obviously isn't going anywhere.

Jacksonville I agree is not as good as their record and is not a threat for the #1 seed. Every time I watch their offense it feels like they are barely hanging on and something is always about to go wrong. On Indy though I don't agree. They have the best average point differential in the league at +14.8 per game. I don't think they're a powerhouse because Daniel Jones is still the QB but they are a legit threat to the #1 seed. They have a baby soft schedule and I can easily see them ending up 13-4. Tennessee stole the #1 seed a few years back under similar circumstances.

There were 4 fumbles by Buffalo and 1 fumble by KC. We recovered all 5. We've never been unlucky against the Chiefs. We've been badly out coached.

A historically mistake-free offense. 0.1 fumbles lost per game, 2.82% sack percentage, 0.3 INTs per game. Those numbers were never going to be sustainable. This year we're at 0.4 fumbles lost per game, 5.00% sack percentage, 0.4 INTs per game. These are all still good metrics, top 12 at worst, but they have reverted to the mean as expected. And unfortunately our offense is not built to overcome mistakes as we saw on Sunday night. There was once a time where I felt that 3rd and longs were almost automatic conversions. Now it feels like we have to stay ahead of the sticks to have a chance of sustaining drives.

Looks like Logue was supposed to be the contain player: If you watch the video they highlight Logue who appears to be pressing left to get to the contain area, but the Pats guard is able to hold him in place long enough which leaves Maye free access to his right. So my question to the Bills coaches would be - do you guys know who your players are? Do you know that Zion Logue is a practice squad DT when you're asking him to be the key player on your "creative" defensive call? Do you know that Tre White's legs are rubber bands when you're asking him to man up 1v1 on Diggs? Do you know that Bishop is not a great tackler when you're asking to man up on Diggs while playing from 10 yards of depth? I understand the personnel issues but it doesn't feel like these guys are being set up to succeed within their skill sets.

It kind of made me more annoyed actually. It shows how easy the path to the #1 seed could have been if we didn't drop any of our easier games. The Bills have a dumb loss or two like this every single year and it is usually the reason we are playing on wildcard weekend. Then we inevitably lose a couple key defensive players heading into the divisional round. I guess before the season I would have signed up for 6-1 heading into the Chiefs game so we're still on track but I don't think we can drop any other games like that and we have to win at least one of KC/PHI/TB. 14-3 still gets it done I think. The Colts are the team that worries me the most. They have a very easy schedule and they've shown an ability to steamroll their inferior opponents. We need them to drop at least 3 more. Their toughest remaining games are at KC, at Chargers, and at Seattle.

I think their defense is where they've been getting exposed, specifically the secondary. The two young safeties Cook and Hicks have really struggled. With Chris Jones not as elite as he once was the pass rush isn't as scary either so a combination of middling pass rush and out of sync secondary is leading to too many big plays downfield. And then on offense once they get past Andy Reid's scripted plays they don't have legit pass catchers that can create consistent production so the offense has been a bit all over the place. Yeah they have speed and they know how to use it but that's not enough in the NFL. Also Mahomes to my eyes still just isn't performing as well as we know he can on schedule. When he gets off script he's still elite but that pick six for example was an on schedule play where he just didn't see the undercutting LB, and he's missed a bunch of wide open deep throws that Andy Reid has schemed up for him. Off script is nice but eventually you have to just drop back and throw downfield to win games and they haven't been able to do that consistently enough.

Unfortunately I think that was the plan. He was getting 1st team reps from the start of camp and even before Hairston's injury he had reportedly locked down the starting job. I think they made a bad decision bringing him back and felt that way at the time. You need to be aware of your own bad habits so that you know to avoid them. They were always going to go with the culture fit veteran who knows the defense once they gave themselves that option. He had a solid training camp against what it turns out is a well below average group of outside WRs, and they used that to convince themselves he could still play. It turns out the tape from last year didn't lie - he simply is not physically capable of playing the position anymore. He'd be a nice emergency depth option since he knows the defense but it was a big mistake to enter the season with him as the starter. And now week over week it is getting worse because offenses are identifying him as an easy target.

I'll admit I don't pay a ton of attention to the Saints since they give me no reason to, but to me the bottom line is he very clearly comes in as the best WR on our team. Which goes without saying of course. Josh Palmer and Keon Coleman take a few plays off every game too, the only difference is they're actually trying on those plays. So if Olave comes in as the classic diva WR that occasionally frustrates you with his antics, I can easily live with that because of the plays he makes that no one else on the roster can. And now defenses can't simply sell out to the stop the run and shut down the middle of the field without facing some consequences. Merely having that caliber of WR on the field makes everything else so much easier. I don't worry about the concussion history because I'm thinking of him as a two year rental that maybe you extend in the 2027 offseason if everything goes well.

If there was ever a year to really go for it, it's this one. The AFC is more wide open than it's ever been. The best team in the conference has Daniel Jones as its QB. KC has lost its close game magic. Baltimore might miss the playoffs entirely. The path has never been clearer. I genuinely think we are one legit WR away from being easily the best team in the conference. Score 35 PPG and just make a few plays on defense, and who in this conference is beating us?

A real Mr. Magoo performance if I've ever seen one.

The best part about that walk off TD is he actually double flopped to declare himself down, then a lightbulb went on in his head and he realized the play was still live. An all time ending in my book.

That was the clumsiest gutsy QB performance I've ever seen

That rumblin stumblin son of a gun really did it

Ha they had to call that one