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Everything posted by HappyDays

  1. I'm voting "other" as the most probable answer. As far as the Chiefs, getting to the Super Bowl three times in a row is just really really hard and the AFC is still extremely competitive. As far as the Bills, I don't think we have enough high end talent to make a real run this year. Of the Bills and Chiefs I think the Chiefs are quite a bit more likely to make it than we are because of coaching advantages and less turnover on their roster compared to us. So overall I'd bet on the field but it's close between the field and the Chiefs.
  2. I see this opinion a lot but not sure I agree. They have the same question marks at OT and WR that they had last year. They lost their best CB in Sneed. Kelce is another year older. Not that any of that will matter of course but just looking at the roster it is a lateral step at best IMO.
  3. This. When we traded for Diggs and then extended him I don't remember a single Bills fan saying the Bills were stupidly investing in an unnecessary position. The Chiefs have become the rallying cry for our poor WR room. But we aren't the Chiefs. No one is.
  4. There's a wide gulf between "Curtis Samuel sucks" and "Curtis Samuel is as good as Stefon Diggs." Everyone else on this board falls somewhere in between that. You're the only one sitting at one extreme.
  5. And yet Diggs in his prime averaged 1,400 yards a season in our offense. Samuel is not going to get 1,400 yards. I'm sorry, it's just not going to happen. What you're doing is the definition of paralysis by analysis. Occam's razor - a career 600ish yard WR is not going to suddenly double his career average. Because Allen will be throwing him the ball and he'll likely be the 2nd best skill player on the field at any time I expect he will produce more than he did last year if he stays healthy. But he is not going to become a dominant #1 WR like Diggs was just because of one out-of-context metric in Matt Harmon's charting. Diggs in his prime could beat man coverage anywhere on the field againat any pass defender. Samuel is a mismatch against LBs and slot CBs who can sometimes win outside in favorable situations. Those are not the same thing.
  6. They are different WRs with different skill sets and different roles they fit in the offense. Their strengths and weaknesses are almost polar opposites. It's like trying to compare Cole Beasley with AJ Brown. You're alone on this one, man.
  7. Honestly man nobody can convince you that Curtis Samuel doesn't have Diggs' skill set. That is something that 99% of football fans just know to be true. This statement is the height of blind homerism. I respect finding reasons to be optimistic, I really do, but you still have to be at least a little realistic.
  8. That wasn't my point. My point is that WR production is less influenced by QB play than people think.
  9. All of them do. Tyreek Hill went from Mahomes to Tua and actually saw his production increase by a significant amount.
  10. Garrett Wilson DJ Moore Michael Pittman Davante Adams Ja'Marr Chase (for most of last year) What is the point of this question anyways? You know not a single WR on our team is a "stud" WR, right?
  11. Allen - No brainer extension, if not next offseason then the one after. Cook - Let go. Never give RBs 2nd contracts. Brown - I know this will be unpopular but I would let him go. I think Brown is in line for a massive contract on the open market. We're in an environment where Jawaan Taylor got $20M AAV and Mike McGlinchey got $17.5M AAV. Personally I would not pay that much for a RT. I would accept the 3rd round comp pick and use the money on a high end WR instead. Rousseau - Let it play out, take advantage of two years of cost controlled salary. I need to see him stay healthy for an entire season and get double digit sacks. If his best trait is always going to be run stopping I don't think that's worth a 2nd contract. Knox - I would let him go but we seemingly got him to restructure his contract by setting it up in a way that makes it extremely difficult to cut him next offseason. Maybe some team throws us a 5th rounder to take him off our hands. Otherwise we are stuck with him until the 2026 offseason. Shakir - This is an easy let it play out. We need to see how he does in a higher volume role this year before we even begin to have this discussion.
  12. I think this is two unrelated statements. We needed a pro-ready outside WR, agreed. That doesn't mean you throw out the draft process though. Early draft picks are about picking premium positions with high ceilings. If you start drafting based on who's more ready on day one you've already lost. That's how you end up with Sam Darnold instead of Josh Allen. That being said I also worry about Coleman being ready to be the starting X from day one which is unfortunately somewhat of a necessity because of how little we invested at the position. The fans will judge him too harshly I fear and that will be Beane's fault, not Coleman's.
  13. For anyone that cares about Reception Perception: So that was my takeaway from the season too. He did a lot of the little things better than ever in his career. As far as just playing the position normally I thought it was his most consistent season, which shows up across the board in any analytics measurement that accounts for context. But I also think he had some of the lowest lows of his career since 2019 which sticks out in people's minds and makes them forget how he looked on a play to play basis.
  14. Yeah this is what gets missed in the discussion. Can't just look at additions without looking at losses. I would say the Bills did the absolute bare minimum at adding to the offense this year. On the OL they made zero substantial investments after cutting Morse so it is actually a net loss there. At WR they just did a straight 1:1 replacement for every player they lost. So no the Bills have not suddenly changed their philosophy. They are choosing to add just enough on offense to field a competent roster, but they are not really actively building around their best asset (Allen, obviously). Plugging holes is not the same as genuine investment.
  15. Kelce is arguably the greatest pass catching TE of all time. I love Kincaid but that is quite the lofty expectation to make up for a below average WR corps. If I thought our defense was suddenly going to become elite in the playoffs I would feel better about the pass catchers. As it stands though I think we will need our offense to be the best offense in football to make up for the defense, and I'm sorry but I just don't see that. I think it would be a pleasant surprise if we have even the 5th ranked offense this year. Several best case scenarios have to come true to end up ranking even at that level, let alone higher.
  16. Zero Super Bowl winners or losers have not had a clear top tier pass catcher in the last 6 Super Bowls at least. I don't know why this statement keeps getting repeated? It flat out isn't true.
  17. The other way of phrasing this is that having a #1 WR is worse than not having a #1 WR, and that statement is obviously false. Yes you want to spread the ball around, but having a true go-to pass catcher that defenses have to think about and give extra attention to is obviously a massive benefit that we aren't likely to have this year. There have been multiple games over the last four years where force feeding the ball to Diggs was in fact the solution to getting the offense out of a rut, so in those cases the defenses knowing where the ball was going was actually better than spreading the ball around. This isn't Madden where Allen can scan the entire field at once and throw to the "most open" target. He will have to go through his progressions, and his targets along that progression will have to get open in order for the play to be successful, like any other offense. We can only "spread the ball around" if skill players are winning their matchups. In general though I don't know how to answer whether or not the pass catchers got "better" than last year because last year is split into two - before Diggs fell off a cliff and after. Like if the question is, will the Bills pass catchers be better than the group we had on the field against KC at the very end, that is a very different question from will the Bills pass catchers be better than what we had on the field from week 1 to week 6. I think the better more consistent question is "will the Bills pass catchers be championship caliber?" and on that I have very serious doubts.
  18. Samuel is going to be Isaiah McKenzie/Deonte Harty in the offense, just a much much much better version of them. Beane this offseason has called Samuel a "weapon" and "not a traditional WR." They've been trying for years to plug that role with cheap talent and it just hasn't worked, so Beane finally relented and shelled out mid-tier money to get the role locked down with a real talent. Hamler and Isabella are probably competing for a PS spot to be Samuel's de facto backup.
  19. Davis got a joke of a contract that the Jags are going to quickly regret, much like another bumbling former Bills WR they overpaid in Zay Jones. You know contracts aren't how we judge the quality of players, unless you also think Albert Haynesworth is a Hall of Famer. And get out of here with "nearly double." $24M is not "nearly double" $15M. I don't know if I can say Samuel is a definitive improvement over Davis because they couldn't be more different as players and it's hard to compare such disparate roles in the offense, but Samuel will absolutely be more efficient and less mistake prone. Samuel had more yards per route run than Davis last year despite a substantially worse QB situation. My biggest concern with him is health.
  20. I don't know what you mean by prominent. There are a lot of groups and clubs that prominently advertise themselves in public schools. I really think it is just confirmation bias on your part. You think LGBT stuff is getting pushed in your face, therefore every time you see it it's another example. You have the cause/effect backwards. The things in American culture that are truly pushed in your face are so aggressive and constant that they have become the background noise of your life. Somewhat of a tangent here - If you want to know why subjects like LGBT, guns, abortion, etc. seem to be prevalent in the media, it's because the algorithms that now run every major media outlet in this country have quickly discovered that they're an easy way to get clicks. I'm well aware that hot button issues have become a commodity in the modern American culture, but you can actively choose not to engage with it if you want to. The more you engage, the more content you'll see. Confirmation bias is a booming business, it's been technologically perfected in fact, and the secret is that negative engagement is even more profitable than positive engagement.
  21. One obvious counter to this is our performance against the Chiefs in the regular season versus our performance against the Chiefs in the playoffs. Each of the three seasons that we have faced them in both, our defense was much much better in the regular season game than the playoff game. Even the regular season game we lost to them in 2020 was not a complete slaughter like the AFCCG game was, and of course we beat them in the regular season in 2021 and 2023. The discrepancy is a bit baffling to be honest. But it shows that the roster has been good enough to beat them. It appears to be just repeated coaching mistakes killing us in the playoffs against them IMO.
  22. Honestly man, you know this is total nonsense. At no point in my life could I ever have been "swayed" to be attracted by the male body. Quite frankly, the thought of sleeping with another man absolutely disgusts me. But I'm also self-aware enough to know that my disgust is not objective, and it doesn't take a huge leap of critical thinking to see how other men could find men attractive. The idea that I could have been "taken in" by homosexuality at any point in my life is laughable. If you think that somebody can be easily swayed to become homosexual, you may have just accidentally revealed something about yourself in fact...
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