HappyDays

By the way this is why Allen is the MVP. He has limited time of possession and zero margin for error because the defense is so bad, and he just keeps delivering in every moment we need him.

We got saved by Rodgers' idiocy. Great. Unfortunately that won't work against playoff teams. This defense is so utterly disappointing and it starts with the play calling

God I hate that freaking play call. Rush 3, play soft. Way too easy to get all the penalty yardage back

We have the worst defense in the NFL over the last month

Officials are learning that calling a penalty on every little thing makes the chippiness worse. These guys have failed at their first job which is keeping the game under control.

I turned on this game to watch guys in black and white stripes pose on camera so I'm having a great time

I'd like to see more downfield throws to Coleman. That was a beautiful completion even if it doesn't count

Pass protection has been fantastic so far. Allen was playing with fire on that last one I got nervous

It is especially bad when those poor calls take great plays off the board. It's bad for the league, bad for the players, bad for the fans. Just bad.

That is a BS penalty. I'm sick of great Josh Allen plays taken off the board by non existent crap

LFG!!! Aw come on man

5 yard penalty converts 17 yards to go. I'll take it

These lines hate each other

Great protection

We won the toss and chose to receive. Interesting.

It isn't just the ceiling, it's the position. Coleman has played just 9.1% of snaps from the slot. I know a lot of people pre-draft thought he would be better as a slot but he's shown he can play outside. So his ceiling is as a high level outside WR. McConkey to me is just a high level slot if he reaches his ceiling. My feelings on both haven't changed at all from April to now. Both exceeded my expectations as rookies, both fit the roles I anticipated, McConkey unsurprisingly came into the NFL as the more finished product. If I changed my opinion now I wouldn't have any convictions to speak of.

Adams, Williams, and Gardner are all active.

So will Bishop play FS today, or Cam Lewis? I would bet Cam. Elam being inactive tells you all you need to know about how the coaching staff views his performance last week.

Then I guess I'm a fool 😁 Like I said before it's way too early to make judgments. I could have told you in April that McConkey would have a better rookie season than Coleman. Even as one of the biggest advocates for Coleman in the offseason I knew his rookie year wouldn't be pretty. Still today I would easily take the higher ceiling playing outside over the higher floor playing in the slot, especially since Coleman has if anything performed slightly better than I anticipated. Somewhat off topic but over the past few weeks I've come off the fence about extending Shakir - I'm now firmly in the camp of not wanting to extend him. I just feel the money he will get can be spent on more difficult to fill positions. So if it were up to me I would draft another slot WR next year in anticipation of Shakir leaving in 2026, but still not in the 1st round. Round 3 and beyond is perfect for that skill set.

Very close between Denver and Indy. I chose Denver because I like our chances against a rookie QB in Buffalo, versus Jonathan Taylor in a possible bad weather game. Denver's defense is better but I don't worry about good defenses beating us, I worry about good offenses beating us. Miami and Cincy both offer the same problem which is that they can drag you into a shootout and I don't trust our defense or our coaching in that scenario. So I really want to avoid them.

In Lamb's rookie year Dallas already had established outside WRs in Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup who had each gotten 1,100 receiving yards the year before. So putting Lamb in the slot as a rookie was the best way to get him on the field. But trust me if they had Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer out there instead, Lamb would have been placed outside right away. Dallas had the luxury of getting him acclimated to the NFL at the easier position on the field. LA doesn't have that luxury. They are placing McConkey in the slot because that's where his skill set fits. You can go back and read all the scouting reports. Lamb was known to be a prospect that could play outside, McConkey was thought to be a prospect that would be relegated to a slot role. His role this year in a bad WR room cements that profile. If you want to defend the unlikely prediction that he will turn out to be more than just a slot WR, I respect that, but nothing he's done so far is making the case for you. It's all projection at this point.

Where do you get your stats from on this? This is where I get mine: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/ceedee-lamb/ 2024 - 46.2% 2023 - 51.3% 2022 - 45.5% This doesn't appear to be true? According to that same source he was 25.4% last year and 28.3% this year. Anyways the point isn't about WRs who can play in the slot. The point is about WRs that can pretty much only play in the slot. Cole Beasley, Tyler Boyd, Christian Kirk. That's who we're talking about. WRs that can win outside can also win in the slot (which is why they will get moved around), but the opposite is not true. Again look at the top AAVs which I linked in a previous post - the top 20 is made up almost entirely of outside WRs. Some of them will be moved to the slot more than others but the point is they can win outside. They aren't spending 2/3 of their time or more in the slot. In fact now that I look at them even Kupp and ARSB are in the slot much less than I thought - 56.5% and 43.0% respectively this year.

This year he has not. 67% slot percentage is very high. As a comparison Shakir is 70.6% and everybody would agree he is a slot WR. It's certainly possible McConkey will prove he can win outside in the future. But all the scouting reports agreed that his skill set made it likely he would be pegged as a career slot WR and that's what he's been as a rookie. Funny thing is we already had this conversation around Shakir. All offseason a lot of people on here were saying he could be an outside WR if given the opportunity. Instead he was immediately planted in the slot position to start the year and that's almost exclusively been his role. The Bills never gave even a bit of consideration to moving him. It takes a certain level of strength and physical ability to win outside. Shakir doesn't have that and I don't believe McConkey does either, but like I said it's still early so he could prove me wrong.

It's not a pejorative, it's just a fact that some WRs are primarily slots. And your 2nd point isn't true. The market doesn't lie - out of the top 20 WRs in AAV only two (ARSB and Kupp) are primarily slots, ranking 4th and 10th respectively: https://overthecap.com/position/wide-receiver So yes if you are truly the very best slot WR in the NFL you can get a top tier contract (although still short of the AAVs given to the very best outside WRs). But at every WR tier the outside WRs are very clearly valued more than their slot counterparts.

Sure with hindsight if the Bills could go back now they would trade up for BTJ, no question. But that is going to be the case in every single draft every single year. You are always going to look back and kick yourself for not trading up for such and such player. It's been studied and shown that the wisest draft strategy is to stay put or trade down and maximize the number of picks you have. If you follow that process religiously it should work out more in the long run even though there will inevitably be times where hindsight makes you kick yourself. With hindsight BTJ would have been the 1st or 2nd WR off the board but GMs just have to work with the information they have in front of them. Anyways this whole conversation is happening way way too early. Coleman vs McConkey is the classic high ceiling vs high floor. Everybody knew McConkey would enter the NFL looking better than Coleman. So taking victory laps after year one is patently ridiculous. That goes for comparing any rookie WR, or any rookie player for that matter. We have to be more patient than that. Coleman has already exceeded what most of this board expected of him in the pre-draft process. He was taken as a high ceiling player that would need to rely on his pure physical ability while developing the nuances of the position which is exactly what we're seeing. Eric Moulds, Davante Adams, Nico Collins - that's the path you're hoping for with a player like him.