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Everything posted by HappyDays
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Khalil Shakir / answer for WR 2 / Makes Sports Illustrated
HappyDays replied to Figster's topic in The Stadium Wall
Not just faster. He has a whole extra gear AND better hands than Davis. Those traits separate 1st round talent from 4th round talent. Also one scouting report I read said that he is also QB friendly in terms of adjusting routes and making himself an easy target. Davis is not very QB friendly IMO. -
Khalil Shakir / answer for WR 2 / Makes Sports Illustrated
HappyDays replied to Figster's topic in The Stadium Wall
I'm not sure Hyatt will still be there at pick 27 but if he is it's a no brainer selection. I see people overanalyzing his talent like they did with DK Metcalf. To me it's simple - he can out run everybody on the field, he's competitive, he has good hands. All of that and he isn't a 1st round talent because he played in a spread offense in college? Let's not overthink this. Elite athletic traits win at the NFL level. Technique can be taught. -
I can't pretend that I care about positional coaches. Aaron Kromer was supposed to whip our OL into shape, and instead they turned in a miserable performance for most of the year. I don't blame Kromer, you can't magically turn bad players into good players. I can't imagine any WR coach is really that much better than any other, there are no secret techniques that Chad Hall taught. So, whatever.
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I don't consider the Dolphins with Skylar Thompson at QB to be a good team but your point is taken, that is a reasonable example where the defense stepped up to keep us in the game while Allen and the offense floundered for several drives. Just to tie up this discussion, my point is not to compare Allen and Mahomes as QBs. I recognize that Mahomes' overall body of work is better than Allen's. I just hate when people say things like "great players find a way to win" as some evidence that Mahomes is SO much better than Allen. I think the gap between their support systems is much greater than the gap between the QBs. Mahomes literally "made enough plays" to win the AFCCG but he had a lot of help from his team and his coaches.
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I sincerely cannot think of a single time Allen has made that many mistakes against a good team and the Bills still won. The closest I can think of is the Packers from earlier this year and they weren't even a playoff team. The story on the Bills is that Allen has to play perfect for the team to have a chance against other playoff teams, and sometimes even that isn't enough (see: the divisional round last year). Do you think the Bills would have beaten the Jaguars in the divisional round if Allen was hopping on one foot for the entire 2nd half and got relieved by Case Keenum for a couple drives? I don't. You're correct that this is all hypothetical, but there are enough data points over the past three seasons to know that the Bills don't beat good teams if Allen doesn't play at an elite level for 4 quarters. I mean he had arguably the greatest game in playoff history and the gap between the two teams was otherwise so great that the Bills still lost. I agree. What if Joe Thuney was our LG instead of Rodger Saffold and Allen was able to make that pass without getting hit at the same time? Maybe Diggs scores a long TD which would have changed the game.
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But everything I said there is true. Of course Mahomes is an elite QB. He made a number of great plays in that game, like he always does. The numerous mistakes however would have sunk him if he was the Bills QB that day because our defense would not have held the Bengals for that long, our #2 WR would not have made several great catches and plays to keep drives going. Allen played like crap against the Jets but made a great play at the end that should have gotten us right back in it... and instead it bounced off Davis's chest. I've seen this story too many times in Allen's career so the common narratives are really starting to frustrate me. So many times I've seen Allen put the team on his back against other good teams, and not once have I seen the team do the same for him. Sure against the Bears and Falcons of the world he can play below his standard and the Bills still win. But if he made that many mistakes against the Bengals we lose every single time.
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Allen did not perform well against the Bengals. I'm not comparing their performances. I'm saying the notion that Mahomes "willed his team to win" is ridiculous. Mahomes didn't have his best performance against the Bengals. He only "willed his team" to one more TD drive than Allen did. The difference is his defense held firm again and again and again and didn't make excuses. I mean there are people on here that said you can't blame the Bills defense for giving up a TD drive to Miami because Bass's kickoff went out of bounds and they started at the 40. The 40.
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No, he absolutely did not. On a good looking drive that could have put the game away he inexplicably fumbled with no pressure. On one drive he missed a pass to a wide open Sky Moore which caused a three and out. After Burrow's 1st interception he couldn't take advantage of good field position to put points on the board. After the officials gifted him a free continuation of a drive he threw a bad ball on a crossing route and the Chiefs had to punt. I've seen enough Bills games the past few years to know that if Allen makes this many mistakes against a good team, we lose 100% of the time. Find me an example that says otherwise. Even in Allen's worst games he still makes a lot of great plays. Mahomes did the same thing in this game.
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See the problem is I actually watched the game so I don't fall for this crap. In the 2nd half Mahomes made a number of mistakes and bad throws that invited the Bengals back into the game. If his defense hadn't stepped up it would have been two years in a row with the same ending. If Allen led his offense to 23 points against the Bengals we would have lost by at least 2 scores. It's weird how quick certain people on here are to point out Allen's mistakes, but Mahomes' mistakes dont matter because he "willed his team to win." I guess he willed Chad Henne to a 98 yard TD drive the week before too.
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How do the Bills win the Super Bowl next year?
HappyDays replied to QB Bills's topic in The Stadium Wall
This is the dream offseason I've come up with that would put us right back in the Super Bowl conversation: 1) Let Edmunds walk. Not because I don't like him as a player, I just think we need to transfer some of the resources from defense to offense. At this point I don't think he will ever be a truly elite game changing type of player and you can find capable MLBs for a reasonable price. 2) Cash in almost every available contract restructure we have. I believe we can create about $50 million in cap space just with this method. Since we're over the cap right now this would give us about $30 million to play around with. 3) Get one of these receivers - DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, OBJ, Brandin Cooks. I have my ranked preferences but I'd be happy with any one of these. Also try and re-sign Crowder to a vet minimum deal, head into 2023 with him and Shakir as the primary slot options. McKenzie I would let go. 4) Spend a plurality of our free agent spending on offensive linemen. Ideally one fairly big signing on someone that we KNOW is an upgrade somewhere on the line, and one moderate signing like Saffold's contract but without it being a total waste of money. 5) My preference as of today in the 1st round is Jalin Hyatt. I'm no scout, I just think having someone that can take the top off defenses and take a quick slant to the house is something this offense desperately needs. I wouldn't overthink it like people did with DK Metcalf. Hyatt's speed and ball tracking and good hands more than makes up for his limited route tree. 6) Pretty much leave the defense as is. Move Benford to safety and find a decent MLB in free agency. If all goes according to plan you come into 2023 with an improved offensive line, a much more explosive and versatile WR room, and probably very little drop off from the defense. We are ready for life without Gabe Davis in 2024, we could even potentially trade him mid-season if Hyatt hits his stride early. I'm okay with Cook and Hines as the top two RBs in 2023, ideally we'd draft a more traditional downhill RB on day 3. Hope that Von Miller comes back healthy by mid-season, hope that Rousseau takes another big step, hope that Oliver can stay healthy all year, all of a sudden we have a very good defensive line to pair with a more talented offense. All of this combined means we are as likely as anyone to win the Super Bowl. -
No, in fact I loved the Oliver pick. Him and DK Metcalf were the two players I wanted at #9 overall that year, no preference. But I'm not paid millions of dollars to make those decisions. Every time a GM is fired it's done with the benefit of hindsight. Their job is to make good decisions without that benefit.
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Yeah you could argue from a cost to value standpoint Ed Oliver is the worst pick Beane has made. 9th overall pick on a player that has made a 2nd round impact. It's made worse when the next three DTs taken - Wilkins, Lawrence, and Simmons - have all had more of an impact, as have two edge rushers taken soon after - Brian Burns and Rashan Gary. Five defensive linemen he could have had that we'd all be more pleased with as of today and he took the worst one. Hopefully Oliver can play a full season healthy next year and finally play to his full potential for more than just a couple games a year, but I'm not counting on it.
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Von's contract is not the problem. He has a cap hit of $18.5 million next year, and $21.2 million in 2024. Here's the problem: Saffold $4 million cap hit 2021 Addison $10 million cap hit 2020 Butler $8 million cap hit 2020 There's $22 million wasted on the first three players that came to mind, and there's plenty more examples where that came from. Spending all of that money on one elite player is inarguably a better decision. Also we wouldn't have beat the Bengals with Von Miller anyways. Burrow was able to get the ball out quick because of our defensive scheme and the offense scored 10 points. That was a loss even with our full roster from day one IMO.
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Because Beane never waits when he definitely wants someone back. White, Allen, Hyde, Dawkins - they all signed their 2nd contracts well before hitting free agency. Whereas Milano they were prepared to let walk if it came to that but he accepted a hometown discount to stay here so we got him signed at the last minute before free agency. It seems like that's the direction they're going with Edmunds. They'll bring him back for the right price but he isn't a priority. If he gets overpaid elsewhere they're willing to live with that. I'm actually hoping that's what happens and then we can invest in the offense.
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Probably true, but it's also possible they want to pump up his value to maximize the comp pick they get if he signs elsewhere.
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Well, they know now. If Edmunds was a priority they would have locked him up by now. I've gone back and forth on Edmunds. After the 2021 season I thought no way we would extend him. Earlier this year I thought he was a definite extension priority. Now I'm thinking we should let him walk and use his money for offense. I like Edmunds, I think the defense was much better this year when he was on the field. But what's the point if we end up in shootouts in the playoffs every year anyways? Might as well spend on offense and get a cheaper replacement at MLB. A few names I saw as potential options: Germaine Pratt Drue Tranquill Leighton Vander Esch Deion Jones Anthony Walker Bobby Okereke Take a small to moderate step back at MLB in exchange for a big investment in the OL? Count me in for that idea.
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If the rumor is true, what are they waiting for? I was starting to think that since they haven't extended him yet he wants to test free agency.
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Something very different: who we really are. 😄
HappyDays replied to Italian Bills's topic in The Stadium Wall
You're not even gonna tell us your name and where you're from? Cop out. -
Frazier: The hard FACTS on why many of us want a change.
HappyDays replied to Alphadawg7's topic in The Stadium Wall
This is not true. He threw 15 interceptions in 2021 with a 2.3% INT rate; 14 interceptions in 2022 with a 2.5% INT rate. He was effectively the same player with regards to turnovers, but his TD rate actually went up from 5.6% to 6.2%. In fact the offense as a whole was much more consistent under Dorsey. Our offensive rank in DVOA this year was 2nd, last year we were 10th. DVOA also measures variance which is essentially consistency week over week. Our offense was the 4th most consistent this year, last year we were the 2nd LEAST consistent. Overall this year I would say the offensive highs weren't quite as high as last year, but the floor was MUCH higher. No total flunks in the regular season like the Jags game last year. Where Dorsey's inexperience became a problem was in the playoffs. An experienced top tier DC in Lou Anarumo took him to school. Maybe Daboll would have done a better job there. Personally I wish we had a more experienced OC because our offense is too talented to waste on a new OC's training wheels. But it is what it is. Hopefully one year of experience is enough. -
Something very different: who we really are. 😄
HappyDays replied to Italian Bills's topic in The Stadium Wall
I assume everyone's avatar is who they are in real life. I happen to be a golfing legend with a fear of alligators.- 84 replies
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Who's our slot WR in 2023, Shakir or...?
HappyDays replied to Nephilim17's topic in The Stadium Wall
KC has weirdly not drafted skill position players well in the Mahomes era, luckily for the rest of the league. Moore had a poor rookie season both as a WR and as a punt returner. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a 1st round bust and they could have had Tee Higgins or Jonathan Taylor with that pick. Mecole Hardman as a 2nd round pick is somewhat underwhelming for his draft position especially considering DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin were drafted soon after. Give the Chiefs any one of those players and their offense might be unstoppable right now. Looks like they finally hit one with Pacheco in the 7th. -
Then you haven't paid attention. He was known to be a raw prospect. Players like him you expect to hit their stride in year three. Young, didn't play much in college, took an entire year off of football. The first half of this past season he was one of the best players on the team. Then Von went down so he had to play more snaps than planned and he got a high ankle sprain. So he faded down the stretch a bit. After another offseason of NFL conditioning I expect this to be his breakout year. No he isn't going to suddenly turn into Nick Bosa but I see him becoming a consistent 10+ sack a year guy who also continues to be a premier run stopper. That kind of production is a foundational player for a franchise.