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Everything posted by HappyDays
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Leslie Frazier "taking a year off from coaching" per Bills PR
HappyDays replied to Roundybout's topic in The Stadium Wall
This is really weird timing, and not too long after Chad Hall decided to leave. What is going on with the coaching staff? -
Here's the issue - "best season" for a MLB that's going to be paid what he'll get should include several game changing plays, ideally in critical moments. A forced fumble, a pick, a huge run stop on a 3rd or 4th down, a fumble recovery for a TD. Edmunds NEVER has plays like that. For him, his "best season" came down to being more consistent at the little things. Nothing wrong with that... but the real defensive superstars do a lot more than just the little things. Not so much a "line in the sand" as it is a good investment strategy. A team that isn't paying a QB and needs an influx of talent on the defense can afford to pay Edmunds more than a player at that level should make. It's the kind of signing that might make a lot of sense for the right team, but no sense for us as our team is currently constructed.
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This is not a fair analysis because last year the drop off from Edmunds was to Dodson or Bernard. We aren't going into next year with one of them as our starting MLB. So the real question is about the drop off from Edmunds to whatever free agent we bring in to replace him. No stats from last year can answer that question.
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Players don't take discounts for any reason. There is no such thing as a player taking a hometown discount. Here's what the man himself said: "Figure out a way," you can guess what he means. He's chasing one last big contract. The Bills understandably don't want to give it to him. On one hand I feel bad for Poyer. No one could ever accuse him of making business decisions in games. You could easily argue that he was underpaid relative to the level of play he gave us in his time here. He might feel a little bitter especially with his wife and his agent constantly in his ear. But by the end of the season you could see that he is slowing down. In the divisional round he was legitimately awful and I think personally responsible for the first two TDs the Bengals scored. Some team with a QB on a rookie deal can afford to pay him more than he should get based on his age. The Dolphins could make sense. For the Bills we have to rebalance the resources spent on offense versus the resources spent on defense. Letting Poyer go at his age is an easy decision in that context, even moreso than Edmunds.
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A picture of Von Miller and D Henry
HappyDays replied to Warriorspikes51's topic in The Stadium Wall
The eyes emoji and the Buffalo image in the picture are causing the speculation, not just that they're working out. Of course it's possible and even likely that Von is just creating rampant speculation on purpose for fun. -
This is a poor representation of that argument and I think you know this. Chiefs have multiple 1st/2nd tier at their position players - Brown, Thuney, Humphrey, and Kelce for sure. The Bills have one - Diggs. They also have better depth at the skill positions than we do and their 7th round RB was making plays I've never seen Singletary make. When you factor in the coaching how is there even a debate?
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A picture of Von Miller and D Henry
HappyDays replied to Warriorspikes51's topic in The Stadium Wall
It would certainly make sense for both sides. The Titans need to be in rebuild mode. A RB approaching 30 doesn't help them. They need draft picks to help them move on from Tannehill, they've hit their ceiling with him. If we do all available restructures and let Edmunds walk we have enough money to afford Henry, OBJ, a low end MLB, and a decent interior OL. Go into the draft with no pressing needs. I like it. -
Bobby Wagner - the solution to the Edmunds problem
HappyDays replied to Rigotz's topic in The Stadium Wall
I'm really not a fan of this idea. We would then have to sign a 3T just to have starting caliber talent there. Let's say we pay $5 million to replace him. That would save us just $5 million on the cap as opposed to just keeping him. I'd rather just keep the young player who has shown flashes and who will be motivated to show out in his contract year. I don't expect us to re-sign him but we might as well use up his 5th year option at this point. -
Bobby Wagner - the solution to the Edmunds problem
HappyDays replied to Rigotz's topic in The Stadium Wall
We probably have enough cap space to afford one splash player after all available restructures are executed. Do we really want to use that one splash signing on a LB? That logic applies to Wagner and Edmunds. It's time to make a splash signing on offense. -
Lamar Jackson wants guarantees that exceed Watson contract
HappyDays replied to SCBills's topic in The Stadium Wall
Turning down generational wealth to risk earning even more generational wealth is the start of an unfortunate parable. Maybe the risk will be worth it in the end. But it's the similar mindset of a gambler who wins big and then bets it all on red. He's one awkward hit away from having his life ruined. -
NFL.com ranking teams WR situations before free agency/draft
HappyDays replied to BADOLBILZ's topic in The Stadium Wall
Nobody is trying to discredit Mahomes. The point is that he had better pass catchers and better RBs and a better OL and better play design and play calling. Allen literally had no advantage over him at any level of the offense. If the Chiefs ran it back with the same exact offensive cast as last year no one would bat an eye. If the Bills did everyone would expect disappointment. That's the point. We have a ton of work to do to catch up to the other contenders. -
NFL.com ranking teams WR situations before free agency/draft
HappyDays replied to BADOLBILZ's topic in The Stadium Wall
I would love a possession number 2 "at best." That's what Beasley was for us in 2020 which was arguably when our passing offense looked the most consistent. Davis is not a possession receiver or a #2. He's a boom or bust downfield option that primarily should be a #3 target "at best" in a championship caliber passing offense. That's what he was for us in 2020 and looked like a perfect fit in that role. -
NFL.com ranking teams WR situations before free agency/draft
HappyDays replied to BADOLBILZ's topic in The Stadium Wall
Why do you just throw JuJu in as an exception as if that doesn't change your entire argument? His best season by far was in 2018. 1,400 yards and 7 TDs. Then Antonio Brown left and he had a few injury plagued seasons. He signed for a prove-it one year deal not because he isn't talented but because of his injury history. This year he stayed mostly healthy and once again had a #1 elite target drawing attention away from him. Only on here is it a debate between JuJu and Gabe Davis. In the rest of the NFL world everyone knows JuJu has the talent to be a #2 target. Davis was a fun fantasy football debate in the offseason but after failing to take advantage of his opportunity he has dropped out of the national radar. Analysts like Greg Cosell and Chris Simms talk about it all the time - Allen has less around him than any other QB that's worth a damn. -
Related, Cover 1 released their annual salary cap podcast yesterday: It's nearly 2 hours long but a great listen. Just by restructuring Allen's and Miller's contracts, which is almost certain to happen, we will free up enough salary to be below the cap. And then there's a bunch of other moves we can make to free up plenty of other space to make some moves this offseason.
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Shakir Training with Moulds
HappyDays replied to Over 29 years of fanhood's topic in The Stadium Wall
From what I've heard about Moulds he has basically an entire payroll of single mothers. Hooking up with him at the right time of the month was a common retirement plan 20 years ago. -
Nonsense speculation from a talking head begging for attention
HappyDays replied to Nextmanup's topic in The Stadium Wall
There is not nearly enough attention given to Allen's UCL injury. I think that alone could explain why the offense became so boom or bust in the second half of the season. Deep throws aren't as dependent on elbow flexion. Short and intermediate throws are. I saw a noticeable dip in Allen's short and intermediate accuracy after that Jets game. I think there was a concerted effort to hide the injury as much as possible so we lost some of those rhythm throws that I know Allen can hit in his sleep. Diggs is at his best on those intermediate throws. Once we lost consistency to that area his production tapered off. It's also possible that defenses figured out how to take Diggs out of the game once they had enough film on Dorsey's scheme. -
He'll be 31 this year and hasn't had a good season since 2020. I would take him as a last resort option if we can't get one of the better veteran WRs that will be available. Would much prefer a clear upgrade though, not a shot in the dark.
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They had two #1s in Kelce and Hill. They got rid of one. But that came after a concerted effort to build an elite OL after they got trounced in Super Bowl LV. They gave an $80 million contract to Joe Thuney, they traded a 1st for Orlando Brown, they hit on two picks in Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. And most importantly they have one of the greatest offensive minds of all time at the helm. I don't personally expect Dorsey to suddenly become Andy Reid or for us to develop an elite OL in one offseason. I also don't expect Davis to be better than JuJu Smith-Schuster. So, the easiest and most realistic avenue of improvement for our offense this offseason is upgrading Davis. The Chiefs also aren't the only example of a championship caliber team. The Eagles traded for AJ Brown. The 49ers traded for McCaffrey. The Bengals drafted Chase just one year after drafting Tee Higgins. Adding offensive weapons to an already talented offense is a proven method of making a team championship caliber. In the case of the Bengals they did it even with an average at best OL.
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I think there's a world where Davis is our #2 WR and the offense is still consistently very good. The OL would have to be much better, we would need a consistent starting caliber slot WR, and we would have to make it a point to get Knox and Cook and Hines more involved in the passing game. If all of that happens we could live with Davis as the #2 outside WR, presumably with a rookie behind him. But Davis is so easily upgradeable, so why not just do that? There are a lot of veteran WRs who are clearly better than Davis and are potentially available this offseason - OBJ, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, to name a few. I know a couple of those are just rumored to be available. But I would take any of those guys in Davis' spot and relegate him to the rotational/specialist role he excelled in his first two years. JuJu Smith-Schuster is proven to be better than Davis. He had 1,400 yards playing across from an elite receiver in Pittsburgh. Davis hasn't come close to that. I don't think JuJu is great by any means but he can separate and run a full route tree. He isn't a huge TD producer but he moves the chains. The Chiefs offense this year was all about moving the chains and then Andy Reid's trickery punching it into the endzone when they got close enough. Remember he led a Chiefs offense with Alex Smith that didn't have a single TD to a WR over an entire season. He's a master of scheming up TDs through any means possible. Getting a little off topic here but the Chiefs of 2021 are actually a great parallel to the Bills of 2022. Mahomes and the offense as a whole that year were too focused on the deep ball so their offense lacked rhythm. Mahomes went through a slump in the middle of that season where he was forcing passes down field instead of taking easy completions underneath. Sound familiar? That issue cost them an AFC Championship Game that they were winning by multiple scores. So Andy Reid works his magic and develops an entirely new style of offense in the offseason. They trade away Tyreek Hill and focus on throwing short/intermediate throws to Kelce and JuJu and get the RBs heavily involved in the passing game. Their offensive philosophy totally flipped in a single offseason. But they also added guys like JuJu and Toney and McKinnon to make their new philosophy work. So If your idea is to run it back with basically the same group of skill position players and just trust Dorsey to figure it out, I don't think that's likely to work. Any OL improvements this offseason will be moderate, we aren't going to get the Chiefs or Eagles or 49ers OL in one offseason. It's a lot easier to find a much better WR #2 than it is to build a much better OL IMO.
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It isn't just Edmunds' words. Beane has locked up all of his cornerstones early - Allen, Dawkins, White, Knox, Hyde, Diggs. The only exception I can think of is Milano where we seemed prepared to let him go but he surprisingly gave us a hometown discount at the last second which we happily accepted. So at this point Edmunds appears to be in the same boat as Milano. If he wants to come back for a lower than market value deal of course we'll take it. I don't ever expect a player to accept less than they're worth so I'm about 90% sure he won't be back. Maybe free agency isn't as kind to him as he expects but I think a young team with a lot of cap space and a QB on a rookie deal will be enticed by his athletic traits and give him a big contract.
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Von Miller's injury, and pass rush needs this offseason
HappyDays replied to Yantha's topic in The Stadium Wall
You can't just compare injuries like that. White had other meniscus damage around the knee. Miller was a simple straightforward ACL tear. Also at least half the battle of recovering is mental. It was clear a few months ago that White was held back by more than just the injury. McDermott danced around it as best he could, but White clearly lost his confidence during the rehab. Contrast with Hyde he was set to return from a major neck injury in unprecedented time. He wanted to get back on the field so he made it happen. I have no doubts Miller will handle his rehab like a pro and he has an easier injury to manage from the start. -
In a championship caliber offense he is a #3 target at best. That's what he would have been for any of the final 4 teams. Likely #3 for KC and #4 or worse for the rest. We're the only team that had a talent like that as our #2.
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The problem in this discussion is that there are two different conversations going on. Is Davis a decent #2 WR? Yes. Is he a good enough #2 WR on a championship caliber offense? No. Look at how many weapons the other final contenders had. If we want to level up our offense we need much better than Davis as the 2nd most targeted player on offense. How is this even a debate?