HappyDays

For me on defense it is not about filling holes, it is about filling in a missing "type" of player. The kind that is okay getting in the face of opponents AND teammates and that opposing players are afraid to be hit by. We are missing size and physicality on defense. Many of us want the defense to start playing more of an attack style instead of a passive style against top offenses. Getting a big brute in the middle of the defense would be a good starting point. Drafting a safety in the 1st I agree that would give me the sense of Beane just trying to fill a hole and personally I wouldn't be happy with that pick. The one that has been named, Antonio Johnson, I don't see a ceiling for him where he becomes a truly game changing player. You almost have to be an all-time great to be a game changer at safety. I think I would take any other position, even RB, before considering safety in the 1st.

I hear you. Hypothetically what if in FA we sign OBJ and Isaac Semeulo (or equivalent talents at the same positions), plugging our two biggest offensive holes before the draft? Then would you feel more comfortable with defense at pick 27?

This is a bummer: I saw him mocked to the Bills a few times on day two. Now he's probably a mid day three prospect.

I just put on a video of him and wow I found my newest draft crush. TE wasn't even on my radar in the 1st but his motion looks so fluid and he looks so natural plucking the ball out of the air. You think he complements Knox well if we want to do more 12 personnel? At pick 27 we might have to settle for a weird position like TE or LB if we want to maximize the value of the pick. If the goal is offense only I'd be happy picking a potentially elite pass catching TE like Kincaid and figure out how to fit him into our roster.

This is the spot I'm at as well. The more I look at the class the more I find it hard to believe a 1st round caliber WR or OL will be there at pick 27. Those positions are too valuable. Last year I thought for sure Jahan Dotson would be a possibility for us and instead he went several picks before. It's why I'm thinking as much as most Bills fans would hate it we may be forced to take a front 7 player to use the value of our pick properly.

If they want their next MLB to do exactly what Edmunds did then yeah Campbell probably isn't a good fit. But part of me thinks/hopes that with Edmunds moving on they are going to modify their scheme a bit to let the MLB play a more traditional role. I'm not asking for an entirely new scheme but some change-ups would be welcome lest we become stale. In that case are you more open to Campbell? I'm no scout, I just see a player that sets the tone for his defense and plays with instinctual awareness that puts him in position to force turnovers.

I don't think Beane will draft a safety in the 1st round. They've gotten production out of that position from exclusively late round picks. He has treated 1st round picks with proper positional value every year so I'll be surprised if he suddenly breaks that trend. So what do you in the event that all the top WRs and OL are off the board? In that scenario we are either looking at a trade down, or drafting the best front 7 player available. I created this thread because to a lot of Bills fans an offensive player is a foregone conclusion at pick 27. But the board could fall a certain way to where there is no value left on offense. And then Nolan Smith, Lukas Van Ness, Jack Campbell, a player like that could seriously be in contention.

Most Bills fans understandably want an offensive player in the 1st round. I get it. But if the board falls a certain way, is there any defensive player realistically available at pick 27 that you would be happy with? I have mentioned elsewhere that my guy on defense is LB Jack Campbell. He wouldn't be my first preference at pick 27 but I've grown to like him enough that I would be happy with him as the pick there. He brings a size and physicality to the defense that we don't currently have and I think filling that missing element is just as important as filling some of our holes on offense.

Man I am going to talk myself into wanting a MLB at the end of the 1st round. I know a defensive pick would bring criticism. But if Campbell becomes the tone setter on defense that I think he'll be it would be a game changer.

There sure are a lot of small "quicker than fast" WRs in this draft that look to be better fits in the slot for the NFL. Who are the day 1 and 2 guys that project to be possible true #1 outside WRs? Quentin Johnston, Cedric Tillman, who else?

I remember you being very high on Justin Jefferson who some saw as a slot only WR, so I hold this opinion in high regard. I don't like taking a slot only WR in the 1st but if JSN can play outside I would love that pick. You could effectively get a Diggs replicant on the other side of the field.

Be honest - when you put that thread title together, what kind of reaction did you expect?

For me Jalin Hyatt is the obvious selection if he's still there. I see the same criticisms about him that I remember seeing about DK Metcalf - he plays in a college offense and runs a limited route tree. I'm not making a 1:1 comparison to Metcalf but my point is analysts overthink this stuff. I see a player that runs really fast, tracks the ball, has great hands, and plays with a high level of competitiveness. The rest can be figured out.

If Beane has any self-awareness at all he will do anything other than draft a safety in the 1st round. Trade down if that's the only 1st round grade they have left. He has yet to draft a non-premium position in the 1st round, depending on how you count Edmunds. I'll be shocked if he does this.

In 7 of the last 10 Super Bowls, the losing team has been held below its season average, often substantially below. In 1 the losing team (Seattle losing to NE) scored their exact season average. Only in 2 - the Eagles last year and the Patriots in 2018 - did the losing team score more than their average. It is simply not true that top offenses can't be slowed down. It happens every year in the playoffs and usually in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have been able to do it with less talent than us. Ditto for the Bengals. With the right coaching philosophy it can be done and most likely needs to for us to win a Super Bowl.

But they do. This past Super Bowl was an anomaly. Usually the winner is in fact holding their opponent below their season average for points scored. I already mentioned that the Chiefs defense held the Bengals offense to 20 points. And it's not like the Chiefs defense was super talented. They were below average in the regular season. But in critical moments their coaching/scheme allowed them to make difference making plays when it counted. The Chiefs game plan on defense in that game was nothing like our game plan. You can't just ignore that and blame it all on talent.

But it's a trend for the defense. Every year in the playoffs it's the same. Play passive and wait for the offense to make a mistake. It just isn't working. The whole philosophy needs to change. On offense Dorsey needs a philosophical change too. He needs to call games LESS aggressively. Be willing to stay patient. It was his first year on the job so I'm hoping he learned enough to improve. Frazier has been in the game for too long. At this point he is what he is. I just hope McDermott is more willing to press the issue in playoff games. What have we got to lose? Our current philosophy isn't working. They can stick to that philosophy throughout the regular season, it's proven to be effective. In the playoffs against other championship caliber teams they have to try something different.

I'm not asking us to shut down the Bengals or the Chiefs. I'm asking to at least slow them down and make it difficult. Get some punches in. Don't just sit back and let them bleed you out slowly. The Chiefs didn't shut down the Bengals, but they held them to 20 points in a game where their offense wasn't performing at its best. They got two interceptions and several sacks. That's a far cry from 27 points scored in 3 quarters. And yes we had injuries and general talent issues in that game, but you can't honestly say the Chiefs defense was that much more talented than us across the board even with our injuries. Coaching was the biggest difference. I don't see anyone giving the offense a pass. The defense couldn't have possibly held the Bengals below 10 points, no question. But likewise to what you're saying the offense's awful performance doesn't excuse the defenses's awful performance. And the defense making it look easy for our opponent is a 3 year trend now. At a certain point the coaching has to be held accountable when there are wide open receivers all over the field and no hint of a pass rush.

Chris Jones is incredible. But you can't convince me that their back 7 is more talented than our back 7. Chris Jones alone did not hold the Bengals to 20 points. Their game plan on defense was completely different. They pressed the WRs to give their guys a chance to disrupt the timing and they sent every pass rush concept they had to keep Burrow guessing. They got burned a couple times but they also had two interceptions and knocked Burrow around. Even if we had Chris Jones I don't think it would have mattered. Our game plan made it easy pitch and catch.

Injuries were a big problem. But the Chiefs didn't have Von Miller, Micah Hyde, or DaQuan Jones when they held the Bengals to 20 points. Even with our injuries was the Chiefs defense really that much more talented than the defense we fielded in the divisional round? Multiple rookie CBs including a 7th rounder, an iffy safety tandem, meh edge rushers. Chris Jones is obviously elite and Nick Bolton appears to be a rising star. But the Bengals scored 27 against us in a game where they only tried to score for 3 quarters. Against the Chiefs they fought to the very end and came away with 20. To me the difference in those outcomes is a coaching discrepancy much more than a talent discrepancy.

McDermott did what we hired him to do. He finally turned the culture of our moribund franchise around. Wherever the rest of his career goes I will never forget that he did that for us. All of the stats you posted attest to this. But sometimes success has an endpoint. Being successful at overcoming one challenge does not necessarily mean you will be successful at overcoming another. In fact the challenge the Bills are currently facing - compete for a Super Bowl with an elite QB - is arguably easier than the first challenge that McDermott overcame. And yet he has not proven that he is the man to do it. On the contrary, in three consecutive playoff appearances since Allen became an elite QB we have not even been competitive in our losses. You could say in the KC divisional round we were competitive, but really Josh Allen was competitive, the rest of the team was not. Which brings me to my next point... You want to talk about luck? How about this - McDermott had the benefit of his QB having arguably the greatest playoff game of all time, a #3 talent WR suddenly exploding for 200 yards and 4 TDs, and the opposing kicker taking 4 points off the board, and he still found a way to lose a game we were winning with 13 seconds left. That's a million dollar mix of lucky circumstances that he had nothing to do with and he blew the opportunity. I don't think McDermott has gotten materially better at any single thing since his first day on the job. He hasn't added any wrinkles to his defense. The Bengals marched up and down on our defensive scheme in week 17 until Hamlin's incident, and then McDermott had the audacity to trot out the same scheme in the divisional round and we predictably got embarrassed. I've lost my faith that he can ever leave his philosophical comfort zone and get this team led by an elite QB over the hump. Because despite all his talk about growth mindset he hasn't learned a thing. Unfortunately for McDermott he is in one sense a victim of Allen's success. If not for Allen we could afford to be patient with McDermott, rationalize that without a high-end QB he couldn't be blamed for any failure to reach the top, and since he did in fact turn the culture around why not let him see his mission through? But the clock is ticking on Allen's career. We simply can't afford to be patient. If this coming season ends with the same type of uncompetitive playoff exit, how can anyone honestly say that McDermott deserves more chances? Josh Allen will be 28 years old in 2024. There won't be many chances left after that.

Yep. In general this defense is missing a tone setter. The closest we've had is Jordan Poyer and as far as tone setters go that's not much. Milano and Edmunds are rangy but players aren't scared of them. Von is pretty laid back and a technician, not a brute. Rousseau is a gentle giant. On offense Allen and Diggs are tone setters. On defense we're missing someone that opposing players are afraid to go near. This is off topic but I've fallen in love with Jack Campbell as a 2nd round target. It's not about filling the hole we have at LB, it's about finding a tone setter. On film I see him stopping guys dead in their tracks and letting them hear about it. Give me that mean streak along with a more aggressive defensive philosophy. That's what championship defenses are made of.

Joe Marino broke it down very well on Locked on Bills last week. Frazier's defense is based around forcing QBs to stay patient and work their way down the field slowly without any mistakes. That's great against bad offenses. But for elite QBs in the playoffs it's too easy. Joe called it "death by 1,000 cuts" and he's exactly right. Talented well-coached offenses in intensive playoff games don't make mistakes. They're happy to take the easy plays all the way to the endzone. So you have to force their hand a little. Joe pointed out no turnovers forced in each of our last 3 playoff losses. Only 4 sacks. We are not letting our players try to make game changing plays. We have to be willing to press our CBs and live with the occasional deep completion. It's either that or die a slow death. That's the philosophical change this defense needs to get to a championship level.

I'm hearing Bobby Babich is the front runner to take the job. Apparently McDermott wanted Frazier to stay, so this was not a stealth firing. He genuinely wanted to take a year off after thinking it over but it's doubtful he ever returns to the Bills.

He has built a great regular season defense. But it was time for a change.