GoBills808

‘That’s bad for the over’ LMFAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

I loved that it was Hughes even more👍👍

Portnoy is not to be tolerated, even in defeat

Allen Morse Motor Hyde Milano

No new threads during game smdh even Patriot fans can’t follow the rules

No I mean yes wait what

Is this supposed to make him easier to hire😂😂

Below average OC gifted the opportunity to work with one of the greatest talents at QB the league has ever seen Won’t miss Daboll at all

wat

Going to play 18 Saturday morning so there's no way the game will be as frustrating

Montgomery is really good

Congrats to the guys

Grumble grumble something about Edmunds’ instincts grumble… oh wait we’re on offense! it was a nice cut from Motor, good vision and the line really benefits from blocking gap control vs too much zone but you already knew that👍👍

Dawkins is so good but I saw like two crack backs and at least one block in the back😂😂😂

Bro blue on white >>>>>>>>>>white on blue

I think right and wrong are largely defined by outcomes, for better or worse, so what I meant was simply that making +EV decisions as practice is at least a logical framework for in-game decisions. And no, there probably aren’t enough data points to say conclusively that always talking the higher EV or W% 100% of the time is the correct approach…but you will be even harder pressed to argue the inverse. Similar to how there haven’t ever been two hands of poker played exactly the same way- we can still construct ranges, calculate EV at every spot, and make decisions that are as GTO as possible…and these decisions will invariably be better than someone who does not follow a similar strategy.

Of course context matters...that's why you shouldn't gamble with your life savings. But if you are (for example) playing cards with a responsible portion of your bankroll and NOT taking that +EV you are, over time, a losing player. I suspect over the next few seasons this will bear out in football as well.

I think the argument is that at least the variance in taking the +EV play is a known element, whereas going 'by feel' is simply throwing darts blindfolded. Reducing variance is a function of going for it more often, not less.

So basically capturing 30% EV doesn''t convince you, but you're going to allow yourself to be informed by a difference of 17%? Where is the logic in that?

Calculating things that teams rely upon when making decisions in-game, like win% or EPA, shouldn't have a 'right' or a 'wrong' attached to it. It's just a formula that informs your decision making. If you want to build a circular swimming pool and you calculate the diameter but then decide you'd prefer a rectangle, your initial measurement isn't wrong. You just didn't use it.

A good (mathematically sound) decision is a good decision regardless of outcome.

Yup total unicorn Maybe if you combine Young and Cam you get Allen aka scariest QB to ever play the game

I think what you’re calling ‘analytics’ is just the process by which NFL coaches are attempting to capture as much EV (or EPA, W% etc) in a given situation. It’s a well defined mathematical set by which one informs his or her decision making. It really can’t be taken ‘too far’.

This is Allen w zero input from Daboll, he’ll be ok

Poyer and Hyde changed the Bills’ trajectory almost as much as Allen