GoBills808

Congrats to the guys

Grumble grumble something about Edmunds’ instincts grumble… oh wait we’re on offense! it was a nice cut from Motor, good vision and the line really benefits from blocking gap control vs too much zone but you already knew that👍👍

Dawkins is so good but I saw like two crack backs and at least one block in the back😂😂😂

Bro blue on white >>>>>>>>>>white on blue

I think right and wrong are largely defined by outcomes, for better or worse, so what I meant was simply that making +EV decisions as practice is at least a logical framework for in-game decisions. And no, there probably aren’t enough data points to say conclusively that always talking the higher EV or W% 100% of the time is the correct approach…but you will be even harder pressed to argue the inverse. Similar to how there haven’t ever been two hands of poker played exactly the same way- we can still construct ranges, calculate EV at every spot, and make decisions that are as GTO as possible…and these decisions will invariably be better than someone who does not follow a similar strategy.

Of course context matters...that's why you shouldn't gamble with your life savings. But if you are (for example) playing cards with a responsible portion of your bankroll and NOT taking that +EV you are, over time, a losing player. I suspect over the next few seasons this will bear out in football as well.

I think the argument is that at least the variance in taking the +EV play is a known element, whereas going 'by feel' is simply throwing darts blindfolded. Reducing variance is a function of going for it more often, not less.

So basically capturing 30% EV doesn''t convince you, but you're going to allow yourself to be informed by a difference of 17%? Where is the logic in that?

Calculating things that teams rely upon when making decisions in-game, like win% or EPA, shouldn't have a 'right' or a 'wrong' attached to it. It's just a formula that informs your decision making. If you want to build a circular swimming pool and you calculate the diameter but then decide you'd prefer a rectangle, your initial measurement isn't wrong. You just didn't use it.

A good (mathematically sound) decision is a good decision regardless of outcome.

Yup total unicorn Maybe if you combine Young and Cam you get Allen aka scariest QB to ever play the game

I think what you’re calling ‘analytics’ is just the process by which NFL coaches are attempting to capture as much EV (or EPA, W% etc) in a given situation. It’s a well defined mathematical set by which one informs his or her decision making. It really can’t be taken ‘too far’.

This is Allen w zero input from Daboll, he’ll be ok

Poyer and Hyde changed the Bills’ trajectory almost as much as Allen

Issues- took him over half a season to move from zone to gap on runs play design…there aren’t many easy yards outside Allen and Diggs winning 1v1. wasted downs. These get important when stakes are higher and we can’t be smashing singletary power for -1 yard every time we get into the red zone.

Wilson put up 230 on the Bucs last week and didn’t look terrible doing it

Did you miss the Titans game or something lol

He didn’t get it dragging his foot in bounds I’ll tell you what

Thanks congrats on second place

I don’t think it’s spoiled to expect more than our average offensive output against a very bad defense. And again, the majority of that output was Josh Allen, off script.

No. I am asking you why you want to credit Daboll for a tepid offensive performance that was only able to have success because of Allen’s ability to improvise.

I have a hard time understanding how Daboll gets credit today when nearly everything we did well offensively was Allen off-script.

I know the jets were missing their wideouts but let’s not gloss over how dominant our defense was today that was an elite performance even opponent adjusted

Yup he’s Cam but with more natural throwing ability and a better arm, and a better feel for the position physically though they are very similar types of quarterbacks

Hard to put Poyer there for me If he doesn’t get greedy I think we hold them to like 15 yards of total offense😂😂