GoBills808

yes the afcs and the nfcs are bad divisions so having a losing record at home isn't surprising need to wait a few years until the 17game season/international series data settles out before you can conclusively say anything close to hfa doesn't matter...which again flies in the face of the data

nfl home field advantage has been steadily rising over the last few years after falling dramatically from 2018-2021 over the last 16 weeks of football hfa is worth 1.99, still down historically but ticking back up think the covid dip was an abberation

Blue on white White on white White on blue Red on white Red on red Blue on blue White on white throwbacks Is the order of preference Idgaf what the players think have you seen some of the ***** they wear

Correct

not great

yes, i believe tendencies like success rate are stable or reasonably stable but something like fumble recovery data for example...we were incredibly lucky last season recovering our own fumbles. and there's zero positive correlation between a team's ability to do that from year to year. so we will regress there. along w the other unlikely to be duplicated rates i mentioned earlier

i think it's just under myself if we grant them both an 18% target share of 520 attempts (which is imo a little too high for Coleman who should be behind both Kincaid and Shakir w Samuel/Palmer likely eating into that figure as well), at their respective catch rates (50% and 70%) they end up at 113 between them

no the simplistic take is '2024 points scored=efficient offense' ^y -->2025-'26 or 'high level functioning of many offensive aspects' which is just words. that is the reduction what i am saying is you need to look at 2024points scored*(negative play rate+turnover variance)/yards gained and ask yourself how likely that rate is to be duplicated or even approached in successive seasons...the answer is not very yards and yardage differentials are more predictive than points because they're relatively stable

Ok I thought it was an ankle or something

It was the Brazil game wk1 Surface was questionable, hurt his foot or toe or something

My point is it's unusual to score that many point while gaining the yardage we did last season And that the reason for that was a confluence of best in league history negative play rate from the QB spot on top of the fewest turnovers from a team, ever So the people saying 'oh we'll just do that again!' probably don't realize what they're saying

odd pairing meaning it's statistically unlikely that the rate at which we scored/yards gained will be duplicated relied heavily on having a never before seen in the NFL negative play rate

he was playing injured in 2024

Yes this is the issue Separation is more about suddenness at the top of your route/ contact point w DB than just running away from your man to my eye Coleman lacks the ability...just doesn't move violently enough

I want to think of him the way I thought about say Devante Parker Solid wideout w upside