YattaOkasan
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Posts posted by YattaOkasan
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There was an Interesting 538 article looking at how FA money is spent relative to draft capital spent. They found TE to be the biggest mismatch in the direction of more FA capital spent relative to draft capital. Ignoring QB which has its own rules, DL was the opposite direction with the most draft capital spent relative to FA capital. I wonder if this thought that TEs struggle to have a lot of impact on their rookie contracts is why there is the difference
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-positions-do-teams-obsess-over-and-overlook-on-draft-day/
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On 4/20/2019 at 3:32 AM, GunnerBill said:
I don't love this running back class. I don't think it is as strong as previous years. I love the Penn State kid and he is my clear #1. I doubt he lasts past the end of round 2.... but overall I think the 4th round is about the sweet spot for backs in this class. That said, what we have seen over recent drafts is when a run on backs starts teams get a bit fidgety. If that run starts at the end of round 2 say, then it is possible the Bills would need to consider using a third round pick.
Doesn’t he have a sky high fumble rate though. Any concerns on that. Thanks for your analysis btw
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On 4/8/2019 at 9:24 AM, ScottLaw said:
Patriots offensive line had their way with our front 7 that game.
Like I said need Edmunds and Star to step up this year and they need to add a few more pieces to it on top of that.
In the first game? Pats only had 76 rushing yards. With 3.0 ypc. Brady had a ton of yards but we were threatening down less than a score in the 4th.
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5 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:
Not sure there is a big move to be had, maybe Ziggy but I have a feeling his medicals aren't good or why else wouldn't he be signed. I don't think a malecontent like Suh makes sense for the process and I don't see where else they can go to get at least an above average starting player without character issues.Could be the medical with Ziggy but I think the talent in the draft is having an effect too.
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2 hours ago, Logic said:
You're right. I wonder if there are health, dedication, or effort questions that we're not privy to. I mean...he's getting paid PEANUTS for an above average starting guard. I just don't get it.Even if he’s injured I was expecting more than this. This was a crazy deal if he returns to form.
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2 hours ago, mrags said:
I don’t deny any of that all. This guy seems to be a lock for a really good player. I think otherwise. And like I said, I’m sure I’m the minority’s. And I’ll happily eat crow if I’m wrong. But my gut instinct tells me this guy won’t be nearly as good as his draft position shows.
If im takin a guy in the top 10, I don’t want a small school guy ever. I want a guy that did it at big schools in college and dominated. A guy that always found a way to produce. One of the reasons I didn’t want Mack either as early as he went. To scary for my taste. Glad I was wrong about Mack. Time will tell about Oliver.
Haha. Not only Mack but you wouldn’t take wentz? Allen too scary too? Do you think you should reconsider if those players are freaks? Also American is meh but it’s not terrible. Their brand is P6. They might be better than PAC12 which has struggled lately.
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He anchors against double teams well. Not sure what else he needs weight for. I sorta wish they had just broken down last years snaps and grades and not the last 3 years. Tillery’s pass rush score was what I noted most about that presentation. He was better rusher from nose and non nose. I’m sure he’s worse against the run.
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17 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:
Saw that.
Read the list.
He's like the #8 edge rusher last season.
He's also been in the league 9 years and this was by far his best season.
Was it an outlier?
Or did he finally get a coach+DC combo who used his properly?
He had a dominant season.
I hope he does it again.
I'll gladly eat crow if he does @eball and @formerlyofCtown
I think it was a career year for him and he will come back to earth, though I'd prefer it to be the new norm.
Point was that singular stat isn't the whole story.
Know who wasn't on that graph??
Khalil Mack.
He was also the highest rated edge on PFF last year.
That graph doesn't tell the whole story.
I bet every GM and coach in the NFL would take any guy on that graph over Hughes.
So it could definitely be an outlier year but I think he’s always brought a fair amount of pressure.
I couldn’t find the PFF rankings but if the above is to be believed then Mack is probably excelling in the run game.
Since this is the NFL and contracts matter a bit I think Jerry’s 9 mil cap hit would be a lot more valuable than Lawrence or Clowney 20 mil hits (speculating on clowneys)
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1 hour ago, SouthNYfan said:
Typical response telling somebody to "learn football" while providing no actual substance in the response
Like I said
I'd like to see other numbers to go along with it
Double teams faced
Percent of snaps he had pressure
Etc
Actually everybody is acting like he's Bruce Smith reincarnated because of this one stat
Actually it was said in the thread he had the highest edge productivity (pressure on 20% of his rushes seems really good). So... can we say he’s really good now?
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6 minutes ago, chris heff said:
I’m confused, Spain looks like a solid player that wants to be in Buffalo, why a one year deal?
I think he didnt get the market he wanted in FA. So hes doing a prove it deal to increase the $$s he gets on a long term deal. I think this year he wasnt happy with the $$'s on the multi year deals he saw.
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1 hour ago, IgotBILLStopay said:
There are two reasons to expect an improvement.
First the talent upgrade - as pointed out above Morse, Nsekhe, Waddle and even Long could have been Bills' starters last year purely on talent. The talent upgrade is particularly for pass blocking and I am still unsure how good these guys are in run blocking (that has always been Spain's weakness).
Second is continuity. Last year we did not have a set line and were subbing guys in and out through the season. Now hopefully, a clear rotation will be established in TC and that should see some benefits. People forget that knowing each other's tendencies is crucial for a disciplined and effective OLine.
Spain's tape on playside reach and combo blocks is really good. He has seemed to struggle pulling and walling off the backside.
Generally I think the line will be above average but not great. I think that with an above average receiving corp will result in a lot of good. Crazy to think we are only like 17th in OL spending after this FA (similar with WR).
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The focus on the short game bit ignoring Beasley was frustrating. Also there was a weird part of John Brown is only a deep option but he doesnt have a lot of TDs over 30 yards or something. Surprised he didn’t fit the silly Allen had the longest time to throw of anyone in the league in there.
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Great spot by the OP. I put his tape in. Whyte looks a lot like shady. Could use some work on blocking but will make folks miss. def worth a flier.
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Allen was the one QB I didn’t want but I also said I trust them to do whatever. They did use all of that trust on the Allen pick but they are slowly earning it back.
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3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
Yeah the game has evolved. I do think it is likely modern day players have increased their accuracy over other generations but i also think play scheming and rule changes have probably had a larger effect on the higher completion percentages we see today. The big takeaway is where a player ranks among his peers. Kelly was top 10 for his era. Allen was dead last in his first season and might remain in the bottom third of NFL quarter backs for most of his career as Cam has up till last year when he surprisingly cracked the top 10 in completion percentage.
Agreed. But to further my point Allen’s completion percentage is likely related to system. He does need to process better but with an improved line and always open Beasley I think his numbers will improve a lot. Cam is a great example too because his percentage has increased from the addition of mccaffery
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33 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
Problem is, i don't know this for a fact, but I am pretty sure 59-60% completion in the mid to late 80's was probably average for an NFL QB. 58-59% is below average for NFL quarterbacks today. Especially ones considered to be franchise QB's. That is why I think Cam Newton is the best comp.
Edit:
Check out the link.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1986/passing.htm
In the 1986 season, a 59.4% completion percentage by Jim Kelly was good enough to make him the 7th most accurate passer that year. In 2018 that percentage would have had him fourth from last only ahead of the rookies Allen, Rosen and Darnold.
Some dude named Eric Hipple lead the league in '86 at 63.0%. That would have ranked 25th in 2018.
So this is a good way to think of why accuracy and completion percentage are different. I don’t think QBs got much more accurate. I think they started targeting a lot more shorter throws. The Dilfer line is that completion percentage is a system and processing stat but not necessarily an accuracy stat
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Can someone just repost the eisner show with Dilfer.
I can maybe get on board with completion percentage over a career is accuracy, but I still think its a processing measure. This analysis with Brady would be super interesting. I'm not sure hes accurate any more, he is still the best processor of information in the league. Thus his completion percentage is still high.
The OP was originally a way to get some steam off for all the "Allen is inaccurate" posts. I'm down with the analysis in the OP that allen is accurate. Can he process quicker and take easier throws? Yes! Would that help his completion %? Yes! Would that help us win? Yes! Is Josh Allen inaccurate? Not more than other QBs is my thought.
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On 3/10/2019 at 8:13 PM, YoloinOhio said:
I thought Crosby was under the radar but I noticed he’s been discussed a lot by draft guys recently. Combine results will do that. He was really productive in the MAC and his film vs Purdue should be pretty good (I watched the broadcast and he jumped out)
The cover1 guys turned me on to him. Yeah his Purdue tape was good.
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3 hours ago, Magox said:
Admittedly, I have only seen the highlight reels of N'Keal and while he looks to be in the mold of a Boldin sort of reciever who is extremely strong, physical and able to pluck balls out of the air with his strong hands, he rarely seems to separate. I'm not sure if our experiences with Kelvin have skewed how I view receivers who dont separate well, but it's certainly a cause for concern. I'm probably unfairly comparing the two but separation matters and if you had to be concerned about any part of his game, I think you could justifiably say this would be the one.
I recommend watching a full game of his or two on youtube (search "nkeal harry vs") he particularly plays big against utah. Its not just the highlights. Hes working every play, and he brings some of his biggest plays when his team needs it in the 4th quarter. He really popped off the screen to me relative to other WRs.
Heres Oregon. This was probably the game he struggled the most but if he makes two catches that he drops he has a really good game and ASU might win. Either way I think Oregon was super keyed in on him after he scorched them in 2017.
This is Utah which he was huge
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Just now, Reed83HOF said:
Hell no - we will do 1 if it is right. I don't see us giving up picks
My guess is that we will look to see who gets cut in the coming days/weeks and sign a few value contracts if there is anything worth going after. After that we go into the draft, grab players, make some cuts based on the draft and sign sign other teams post draft cuts. Then we will make sure we have enough numbers for camp.
Agreed. I just saw some wild numbers being thrown around in the thread. Wanted to pump the brakes a bit. As I said I think they can maneuver. Also thanks for putting this together.
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1 minute ago, Reed83HOF said:
There are lots of ways to maneuver around the cap - we have plenty of room
Agreed we can maneuver. But based on the available cap and the front loaded contracts we've given; do you see us giving out more than one big contract?
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Can we double check the maths? 45 mil -10 for rooks - 10 carry into the season - 7 for Ty - 2 for Gore - 4 for feliciano - 2 for roberts. Thats 7 left for a contract. Without cuts to Ivory and Ducasse. I think enough to get one big contract done but not much more. The cover 1 guys think its a DL or DE. I think they are right.
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4 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:
I really think they are thinking to bring Mills back and have him battle for RT
If it happens I think they would be ok with it. But based on their activity they are certainly not looking to get him
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32 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:
^^^This is the tweet they are referencing
Am I reading this tweet is from 2012?
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Case against first round TEs
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by YattaOkasan
So on positional value I think there is first round value (I think other posters agree) BUT the return on that capital takes longer.
This is why I am intrigued with Hock but sorta just want a stud pass rusher instead because we seem to wanting to win now. If you’re pounding for Hock you’re probably try to set up for the long term.