YattaOkasan
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Posts posted by YattaOkasan
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I like this with a twins (Watkins and Woods) on the wide side of the field. Now you can run to the short side if they don't have numbers there or you could option roll out to the wide side if they don't have numbers there. Roman is all about point of attack and I can see him employing something like this. Really is a tailback, full back, w/ a TE opposite any different then a wing-T. I expect to see this latter formation a lot.
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While it's true Rex 'threw Darby to the wolves,' as we've been reminded a few times now, it's still worrisome how poorly Darby played during preseason. Yep, he's a rookie. Yep, he's going to get better. But the Indy game is just a few days away.
The question is what Rex will do about it. The obvious answer is that there will be a safety over the top. But what else?
Rex and Dennis Thurman have good defensive minds. They're going to try to avoid giving Darby more than he's capable of doing.
In response to what else might they do:
Blitz him some when there is only one receiver on his side.
With safety over the top help I would guess he is told to be aggressive on the short routes. This could actually be huge because he is so quick.
They could blitz from his side to force Luck to roll away from pressure.
They could do some crazy zone blitzes where he sinks to the middle and a LB covers the flat with safety over the top.
Basically they will move him a lot.
He's a concern but I think Rex has been fine with less.
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Well, I stand corrected. But one season results are not sufficient to draw any conclusions. I haven't bothered to look at correlations between pythag and actual records with subsequent season performance -- as you suggest, you'd need to look at many seasons to draw a statistically significant result. Barnwell's article makes a more general point: when you see a big difference in actual record vs. pythag record, all other things being equal (and of course, they're not), expect the next year's record to fall back toward the current year's pythagorean record. It's a simple point, but one worth knowing, and interestingly, not one that was known before the analytical revolution that started with Bill James in baseball and moved on to other sports.
However, we don't see a big difference in actual record vs pythag record (0.6) in the same year. That tells me we didn't get overly lucky or overly unlucky. So why does he think we should regress?
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Nobody ever said that. Of course we know that player and coaching personnel change. Prior season record is still relevant. It's not the whole story, but it's relevant. And pythagorean record is in many ways more relevant. Why have a discussion at all if you dismiss anything but seat of the pants feelings about the Bills?
What did his formula say we would do this year? I think I missed it unless its the 9.6 number at the top.
Edit: I did minimal digging and found a calculator
http://www.had2know.com/sports/pythagorean-expectation-win-percentage-baseball.html
Using 16 games, 2014 points scored (343), and 2014 points allowed (289) from
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2014.htm
I got 9 wins. The part I don't get is if my dataset is last year how do you not project 9 wins this year. I can understand some asymmetry for your predicted result but I think +1 and -5 requires a bit more explaining than he does. Models are great guides and I would use this one to say:
The bills were good last year. I think they got better this year (I know I'm a fan but seriously we did upgrade almost everywhere). I will not have too much asymmetry in my results. Let's say +2 and -3
Best case scenario everything clicks and they are 11-5. Maybe they do some damage in the postseason
Worst case scenario: Offense doesn't click and Defense regresses, 6-10.
I wouldn't call that basement dwellers. I also think that's a more reasonable approach with a bit more grounding in the model.
Let me know if I'm misunderstanding this.
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Yeah. It could be almost anyone. And it's very believable that some coaches would want Fred there still and not be on board with the release. Look at the varying opinions here.
I even could imagine a defensive guy like Donnie Henderson putting his two cents in and saying "hey, I have been here a couple years and Fred means so much to this team and his teammates that I believe he has tangible value way more than his playing time"
But I think that if it were Ryan they would be reporting or leaking that it is Ryan. Maybe it's Roman or Lynn or Palmer. Who knows. But "some coaches" meant not the HC to me.
Some coaches isn't even Roman to me. I think as you say about Rex. The media wouldn't say some coaches; they would say Roman.
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I want to give TD Taylor some time but 8 games is a lot. We pulled EJ after 4 games and the majority didn't seem to upset about not giving him 8 games. I went with whenever I damn well please, but maybe add another button for 4 games
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I'm going to stick to Tyrod, as I have since he was a freshman at Tech. If he's as potent during the season as he has been in the preseason I could get on board with TD Taylor
Got my vote. Hope he proves worthy of it.
How about...."GOAT"
Love the new avatar
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Nope. Not my words. I never said nor intended to imply anything about 3 and outs. My implication is that with EJ Manuel in there, the offense doesn't move the chains well enough. He has moved the chains well at times (which is why people talk about his moments of greatness), just not well enough for me. That's all.
As for the stat thing, you have to read that other thread (which ins't very long by the way) in order to get why I am not going to bother to do all the research it takes to dig up every last stat which in the end will end up being a meaningless stat anyway. It would be a giant waste of my time. No thanks.
My goal isn't to convince you in particular of anything. You live in a
free(mostly free) country. You are entitled to have an opinion andits okay if its different than mineit should be the same as mine.Understandable post and thanks for the insight. Sorry I took your words wrong. I would still like to see some data on moving the chains. I would probably have to think about this metric though before I go looking for data; I think first downs per drive would be what I'm looking for.
I can understand not doing the research. It can take a ton of time to find what you're looking for and some times the data isn't even available. So very understandable that you wouldn't want to dig for it.
Thanks again for the insight into your thinking. I think we agree on what it takes to have success, but have differences on evaluation is all.
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If you want an understanding of how I make judgments about football, then read this thread.
I read the initial post, but didn't go through the thread.
I can understand you want to view each series individually. I think context is important too. However, you wanted to say EJ had more 3 and outs than the other QBs (correct me if I'm wrong). I agree this would be an important consideration, but I need to see some data. I know he has had more 3 and outs this preseason, but I think the original request for data was if EJ had 3 and outs at a higher rate than average during the last two seasons. I honestly don't know and would be interested (my guess is yes because our offense hasn't been great).
I can get on board with the idea that Tyrod can lead to fewer 3 and outs because he will have 3rd and manageables (because of his legs) an above average amount of the time. I also can get on board with EJ having 3rd and manageables an above average amount of the time. The thought being that EJ can stretch a defense which would allow more running room. However, all I have is conjecture without data.
I'm not so interested in how you make judgements about football as I am in about how I make judgements about football. To do that I wanted some data (you had/have a chance to convince me). If you don't provide data it won't be the end of the world but your argument is much less convincing.
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Last season...
If you want to forget last season then you could use Game 2 in this preseason. First three possessions = 1 first down maybe 2. Plus he got sacked 3 times in 3 possessions. Fumbled in the red zone on the fourth possession that he otherwise played very well in.
Can't say anything against the last game he played in. He played better than anyone would have expected. That was probably the best performance of his career I would think. But, historically in regular season games, he just doesn't move the chains well.
There is a probably a better quarterback on this team who moves the ball better than the others and also possesses the big play threat. His jersey doesn't say "EJ Manuel" on it.
You are entitled to your own opinion. That is mine.
So.... no data then...just opinion?
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probably because their opponents were forever in 1st and 2nd down situations.
I think its more that the offenses they played in 6 divisional games were terrible.
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On that particular day, even with Dareus, they probably wouldn't have handled the Raiders. Simply a bad day for us and a good day for them.
Yolo brought up a good point earlier too. That happened mid-game. This time we know Dareus will be out so we can game plan.
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Rex on QB's: This is the scenario I wanted. I wanted all three to perform well and they have.
I thought at the beginning of TC that they would all be mediocre, and no oone would separate. Now at the end they have all played well, and no one has separated. I have been pleasantly surprised, but I really just want a TD from the first team offense now.
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If Goodwin is running a go-route, a well thrown ball is unlikely to hit him in chest because of the angle. Goodwin has his back to the QB. It would drop insomnia hands.
So, Goodwin had to make some sort of adjustment, whether it was breaking inside or stopping to turn around and jump for it. One thing I don't want Goodwin doing is jumping for a ball. He's not good at it and he seems to always end up injured.
I was thinking a throw behind his head that he had to adjust and lean back for. It can be both catchable and inaccurate.
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Yes, to remind you and your friend my stance on EJ, I think and hope that they keep him as the third string QB. I think he has shown enough to not get cut outright.
Thanks for the response. I was just having trouble figuring some of your logic out, but that explains the trouble I was having. Also wouldn't say I'm BF4E's friend.
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One way they could keep 5 receivers plus Easley as a gunner and Thigpen as the return guy is to cut both Bryce Brown and Boobie Dixon. Conventional wisdom all summer has been 4RBs plus 1FB but is a 4th RB who doesn't dress more valuable on gameday than Thigpen? He has been forced into playing some running back in camp and pre-season and could do it in a pinch if you had a sudden slew of injuries.
What I saw from Thigpen at RB against Cleveland did not inspire any confidence. I don't think he would serviceable. I think 1 FB and 4 RBs is necessary, and while he is our best punt returner, I think it is wiser to replace Thigpen at PR then try to put Thigpen at RB for any amount of time.
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Rex's Plan: Platoon ALL three.
Wouldn't that blow everyone's mind. I think it would be pretty cool. LMAO...
Too hard to do with the roster limits. I think one would have to be inactive on game day.
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Ice cream social for Bills after practice (with a contest winner) and Rex's choice is peanut butter cookie.
Who said Rex liked Rocky Road in another thread. Misinformed Idiots!!!!
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With the depth and scheme we have this guy is becoming expendable. He's already showing frustration about not getting the ball enough. He's not the red zone threat we need. Imo we don't miss a beat without him. Packers or Panthers oth may feel with their elite QBs be could he a #1 WR. If either one offers a first I'm on it. Also willing to listen to other packages. Thoughts?
I guess I could get on board with the first. But that's about the only conceivable package I can think of.
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looks like TT is the second QB in with the 1s
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My picks...
Underrated: Aaron Williams
Overrated: Eric Wood
How long before this becomes a QB thread?
Under: Corey Graham
Over: Harvin (over paid at least)
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I don't think people who "rant against EJ" necessarily think that Cassel is great. Look, you mention Kelly Holcomb. I realize that's a name that is always sure to draw a lot of laughs on here but Kelly Holcomb was decent in 2005. If we can get Kelly Holcomb 2005 level of play, the Bills will make the playoffs. EJ Manuel has not achieved Kelly Holcomb 2005 or Matt Cassel 2008/2010 level of play at this stage in his career and there is no guarantee that he will. Again, this doesn't have to be that complicated: just go take the job from Matt Cassel/Tyrod Taylor. If Cassel sucks so bad and EJ has all this magic upside then it shouldn't be that hard.
Can you remind me your stance on what you would like the FO to do with EJ? I still have some logic issues with trying to determine if EJ will be "decent"
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He looks like two large men that ate a child. Sheesh nice pick up during TC IMO.
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Does the fact that all of these qbs are playing well in preseason just not sink in with some of you..........
There are qbs that are considered good that are not playing as well as our qbs are
I think a lot of us get it. We just can't stop talking about EJ. OMG did you see what he was wearing at the mall the other day!!!!
On a serous note, because a lot of us are pleased by our QB situation we are happy with any of them starting.
Ronald Darby - how will he do?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by YattaOkasan
I think both the back shoulder and the double move are stopped by a safety over the top. If Darby has someone over the top I expect him to bite on everything back to the QB. The back shoulder will be played aggressively. He will get burned on the double move but there should be a safety there.
I don't really like the Graham vs TY or Andre Johnson matchup either so if were gonna roll safety help anyway then let's just use the quick corner (Darby) on the quick wide out (TY) with safety help over the top.
Outside of that, I expect Darby to be moved around a lot. Either he blitzes/defense blitzes from his side and he plays deep/exotic blitzes where he ends up in the middle of the field. Anything and everything to make picking on him difficult.