YattaOkasan
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Posts posted by YattaOkasan
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I understand there is not enough money under the Salary Cap guidelines to sign everybody, but given Dough Whaley's propensity for Drafting good LBs and the absolute disaster that was LT prior to Cordy Glenn in a BILLS uniform, it does not compute with me for the BILLS to not guarantee Glenn is a Buffalo BILL for the next five to six years. Good to great LTs (and right now I think I would put Glenn on the good with potential to be great ranking / scale) do not just get picked in a Draft and then start right away without a hiccup or problem in making NFL adjustments. Glenn is young and he's their guy, this should be an absolute necessity. Dareus, Glenn, Gilmore, Bradham - in that order, IMHO, in terms of priority and where to cut the fat if necessary.
I would love to keep him too. My question is how much do you pay him to keep him around? I think $8 million per year for 5 years seems great (but I haven't really looked into it much yet).
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Right. But GMs, thankfully, don't think like fans do. I would bet anything that Whaley both still doesn't think that was a bad move (trading a #4 for Bryce Brown), and would have no problem whatsoever releasing him if he thought the guys he was keeping make the better roster.
He traded for Brown because two years in a row, Tashard Choice was our #3 RB and was not very good. The previous season, both CJ and Fred got hurt, and we were stuck with a lousy starting or #2 RB. The following year (this year) CJ would be a FA (who we didn't keep) and Fred would be 34 and not able to handle the rigors of being a #1 RB for 16 games. That was solid thinking then and solid thinking now. Whaley didn't know he would be able to trade for Shady.
It was a smart trade, because GM's are supposed to look short term, mid term, and long term, at the roster as a whole.
I also don't think, the Brown trade, was as bad of a move as some have made it out to be. Particularly because the insurance policy was already cashed in. If only he holds onto that damn ball it might look like a great move.
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I am not sure politics are as important to Whaley as everyone thinks. Mike Williams demonstrates that. Whaley wants to win and has never shied away from the fact that not all deals work out.
I think this is the case as well, but have often seen the argument (not so much here) "Brown is Whaley's guy and he doesn't want egg on his face."
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Next year really does have the potential to be a very good QB draft. There are as many as 9 guys that--with solid 2015 campaigns--could end up as 1st or 2nd round picks:
Hackenberg
C. Jones
Cook
Kessler
Goff
Hogan
Boykin
Prescott
Brissett
Unless EJ or TT become dominant, I suspect we will be taking a QB in the first round.
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I'm thinking he'll be one of the top 2 or 3 OTs available, as I don't figure many of them will hit the market.
If I'm ranking the guys on that list, based on total body of work in the NFL and potential going forward, here's my shot at the top 10:
1. Trent Williams
2. Andrew Whitworth
3. Russell Okung
4. Donald Penn
5. Kelvin Beachum
6. Cordy Glenn
7. Nate Solder
8. Andre Smith
9. Anthony Castonzo
10. Joe Barksdale
If we assume that Williams, Okung, and Beachum get re-signed (based on age, cap room, and propensity for those teams to keep FAs), then I have Glenn as the #3 available OT.
I think assuming these guys will get re-signed is a safe assumption, and they should be resigned for something close to their value. Glenn would get an exaggerated (more than he's worth) contract if the market was diminished. However, with just those 3 guys gone I don't think the market is that much smaller and his value would not be too exaggerated. Thus he would still not be top 5 in worth (this is still the benchmark were using right?).
I think it was later in the board (will eventually learn multi-quote), but $8 million sounds right to me with all things considered. I think his agent would be insane to not listen to any offers lower than $9 million.
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This is a tough nut to crack.
Because the CBA prevented Glenn from being extended prior to this offseason, he couldn't even be approached about a new deal prior to then, so this presents the first opportunity the team has to get something done.
Now, of course, Glenn is one season away from being on the open market, at 26 years old, with 4 seasons of starting experience. That means that he'd have to be blown away with an offer to sign before then.
From the team's perspective, you've got a guy that's coming off of his worst season as a pro. Now, he wasn't bad; he just wasn't the same player he was in the previous two seasons, which makes it tough to go in and offer him Branden Albert-type money ($9.5M/year). He'll almost certainly get that on the open market, since he'll be one of the top 2 or 3 OTs available, assuming the following list is accurate:
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2016/tackle/
Further muddying the situation are the cap ramifications. Right now, Dareus is (and should be) priority number 1, since he's a top-3 DT in the league. After that, it makes the most sense to extend Gilmore, given (a) the quality of the player, and (b) his $11M cap hit for 2016, which can be lowered significantly by an extension.
It almost seems like the team wants to wait on Glenn in order to see if Henderson AND Kouandjio can handle the OT spots, which would take care of the problem for them. Given the cap tightness, that's not an altogether bad idea.
I limited my list to LTs next year and I thought there were more than 5 that had a better year in 2014. I understand he will likely improve this year, but I don't think he'll be in the top 2 or 3 for UFA (would love to be wrong though) of all tackles, unless you are weighting LTs more (but why not just limit it to LTs then).
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I find this amusing - Matthew Fairburn at Syracuse.com does the research and gives us this list of crappy QBs who made the playoffs:
Pretty comprehensive, right? I mean, he didn't leave anyone out, did he?
Umm, Matt Cassel, Chiefs, 2010, made the playoffs. That would perhaps be the obvious starting point when looking for comparable QB situations ...
I don't see Sanchez. Nice find btw.
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These things happen every year. Guys get contracts that are outrageous for their position and performance. Teams will overpay, especially for above average talent if it's at a key position like LT. Hell, most other teams probably thought we were nuts for giving Clay the contract that he got. Guys like Glenn hold all the marbles, and teams know it.
So I think the point on Unrestricted Free Agents needed some more umph so I did some work. Below is the list of UFA LT next year in order of cap hit this year from this site
First Last Age Team PFF rank, B/R rank
Trent Williams 26 WAS 10, 11
Anthony Castonzo 26 IND T7, 10
Nate Solder 27 NE >10, 21
Russell Okung 27 SEA 9, 18
Andrew Whitworth 33 CIN 1, 3
Donald Penn 32 OAK >10, 13
Kelvin Beachum 25 PIT 3, 8
Cordy Glenn 25 BUF >10, 15
I then added their PFF ranking (note rankings only went up to 10 but I think you get the picture).
2 top 5 LTs will be on the market next year along with 3 more in the top 10. This also includes a wide variety of ages. I don't think Glenn will command top 5 money because there are 5 UFA's that were ranked higher then him last year. Unless he has a huge break out year (which I would be down for); he will not get top 5 money for a LT.
EDIT: I double checked and these are only the Pass blocking rankings. I will try to update with overall PFF rankings (I know we take them with a grain of salt but what else does a guy have).
I have added B/R rankings because I couldn't find PFF rankings
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I can't wait to watch Felton in this O. Love me some FB.
Frank the Tank should come back, too.
I am interested to see how both TE's and FB are used. I am picturing a lot of Clay lining up in the FB position to lead block (or pull from a stance).
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What about John Connor (who Rex likes) and again Karlos Williams (the draftee they'll try to develop)?
I don't think Connor makes it because he is too one dimensional, and while Karlos is big I'm not sure he's FB material (I don't think he can put the hurt on a LB).
Again, I think you points are very valid, and I find this position battle difficult to discern.
However, I think its Shady, Fred, Karlos, and Boobie at the end of the day. I am also expecting to see Harvin and maybe even Sammy line up in the back field this year.
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They just drafted a big back in Williams who plays ST. They brought in arguably the best FB in the NFL in Felton.
Boobie already played for Roman and was reduced to 4th string. Their backfield wasn't impressive outside of Gore.
Brown's the only guy we have outside of McCoy who has speed, agility, and the skill set to be an all-around back. He had over 10 yards per catch last year. If Marrone/Hackett could've gotten our players the ball in space, you'd probably have a different opinion of Brown. It's the same problem of mismanagement they had with Sammy. They rarely used him in the screen game. Their system was constricting and one-dimensional. Roman's will be more creative and get our RBs outside the hashes more often. That isn't Boobie's area.
McCoy, Fred, and Brown have the ability to be productive in Roman's system. Felton and Williams will have their respective roles. I see Boobie as the odd man out. I guess he coupd stay on for ST over Williams, but I'd bet the Bills just stick with the young guy they drafted. He has more potential.
I'm digging on what your saying, but I think Boobie could/will learn to play FB which will make him more valuable. I think we already have our pass catching RBs but could use a little bit of FB depth that Boobie could provide. Overall this is one of the most interesting bubble watches (along with WR).
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Why do you consider it to be politics?
I think Brown is just a better RB than Boobie. They also just drafted a guy with Boobie's skill set.
I've heard it referred to as politics which is I framed it that way.
I do think the coaching staff is higher on Dixon, and I honestly prefer him as well. I do understand the argument against him; it just seems that most of it lies in that Brown is Whaley's guy.
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I don't understand the politics of cutting Boobie. Whaley brought in both Dixon and Brown. I get that we paid more for Brown, but I don't think that means Whaley is more beholden to him than Dixon.
EDIT: I also don't understand why people think Dez Lewis will make the team with how loaded we are WR right now. He has been hurt so far, and is a rookie. Stash Lewis on the PS, and I would be very surprised to see anyone take him. Then if Harvin acts up you can bring him up, but right now I think Goodwin has to be in.
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This part with regards to EJ was interesting.
"He’s much less hesitant in his decision making and his accuracy is more consistent. Perhaps the area of his game that has seen the greatest jump is his footwork in the pocket and leading up to the throw."
We'll see... still waiting for my ABC membership card to arrive in the mail.
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Training camp. He was getting dogged by Hughes every play. He would just run around him like he was standing still. Slow feet. I think that really killed his confidence. To go from that to starter... I just don't see it happening
Hughes made a lot of people look bad last year. That said I am also from Missouri (the show me state) with Kujo, but I am very hopeful (to the point that I think he'll start at RT).
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jimmy L. Is retiring. In his words - "the door is closed, but it's not locked."
You're so fast. Caught me in 3 minutes. I like your avatar btw
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If AW goes down we are going to struggle.
T Y!
I think that means if AW struggles then we struggle too? He better back to practicing soon to make sure hes in good shape. Yeah I messed that up. Dawan Landry is who I meant and yes he is still available.
Edit: I am an idiot
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There is very little doubt in my mind that Seantrel will be on the first team offensive line when the games actually count (provided he is not injured).
There is a lot of doubt in my mind that he, even if healthy, will be on the first team OL when games count (Kujo to replace him). That being said at worst I think hes our swing tackle.
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I don't disagree, but maybe Roman looks at the defenses in our division and thinks the best way to beat them is to limit their rest and time to react.
I think a no huddle while Suh is off the field would actually be restful for our O-Line (assuming we get some first downs at some point)
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@JoeBuscaglia: Observations from Day 1 of #Bills minicamp are up. And the QBs did better... slightly http://t.co/rLLVltiRH1
Funny that even the reports on the punters is so different. Joe B is saying, Schmidt has it locked; someone else linked above was saying Gay was making a bit of a competition out of it. So basically all this is useless and I should get back to work?
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Great point and I agree. I think our speed on the outside can hurt most teams, regardless of how good they are at holding a corner. But how often do you plan on using rolling pockets or rollouts? It's a nice change of pace play that, with our speed guys on the edge, can really hurt a defense, as you say. But it can't be your bread and butter. It's just too easy for a defense to defend when they only have to defend a third of the field.
GO BILLS!!!
Yeah very good point. Obviously not the bread and butter, but I expect to see a lot of option type plays. I think the optimal D&D would be second and short/medium for this type of option play. If theres a big hole in the middle, then you hand it off. If there is an open receiver, then you throw the intermediate/long pass. If neither are there (I have to imagine because there are so many defenders everywhere elsewhere), then take the free first down and get down.
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I love our weapons but SF had some really good weapons last year as well.
I am going to take Sammy, Percy, Woods, Clay, and Shady as speed outside options over Boldin, Crabtree, Stevie, Davis, and Gore last year.
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Precisely. And it must have frustrated Roman to no end. Teams adjusted to the read option, the rollouts and moving pockets became easy to defend, and teams forced him to stay in the pocket where he couldn't make hay consistently.
My hope is that our edge weapons are the difference between here and SF.
It takes defenders to set the edge. Players who have to commit to the box. If this can be read pre-snap, the adjustment, I would guess, is to get the ball to the players on the outside. We have better players on the outside so if teams do commit to stopping the rollout then we can just get the balls in the hands of Sammy or Percy.
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With Rex's comment around EJ using his legs more and his interest in TT, I think Rex and Roman want to execute a lot of roll out/option type plays. I am picturing a clear out route by the wide out with intermediate crossing pattern from the backside, and the QB has the option to hand off, throw (bomb or intermediate), or decent run in space by the QB. This type of offense would get me very excited. Also wasn't it what made Kaep successful (and Wilson still)?
Also count me in the ABC club.
Carucci: Glenn likely "odd man out" in contract extensions
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by YattaOkasan
I just don't see anyone breaking the bank on Glenn next year. The list of UFA LTs is up thread, and its pretty impressive. I'm not saying it couldn't happen (particularly if he has a monster year), but because of the available talent on the market next year I don't think it will. I'm hoping we can lock him up for $40 million over 5 years.
and then move him to guard