BuffaloHokie13

I took a look, for what it's worth. Our 2017 opponents include 5 playoff teams from 2016 and their combined record is 143-112-1 Our 2016 opponents included 5 playoff teams from 2015 and their combined record was 133-123

Well first, it sounds like he's regressing. 23 total TDs in 16 games would be ~3 TDs short of his normal rate over the past 2 years. But yes, I believe Tyrod would perform at least as well as the 20th QB in the league from a production standpoint, which is where his cap hits put him over the next 2 years. It's a shame McDermott couldn't get the Defense turned around though...

How many TD's does he rush for in this hypothetical?

it'd actually be pretty easy if you just took the team's total spending on all qb's divided by wins. It gets much more tricky with the browns if you try to do it by who started (didn't they have like 5 different starters this year?)

Without doing the full exercise I'd have to imagine the top 2 would be Oakland (Carr's on a ridiculously cheap rookie deal) and Pats* because Brady's paid outside the NFL's parameters so his deal is team friendly.

I don't understand why you are trying to correlate team wins with a QB's salary. Over the past 2 years the Saints have paid Drew Brees $41.05M, and they have won 14 games total. Clearly this means you wouldn't want Brees as a QB, right? The Chargers have paid Phil Rivers $37.67M over the past 2 years for 9 wins total. Clearly he is a mess too.

On the bench behind Dak.

Agreed. Without Mills whiffing on some of those blocks Tyrod never would have broken contain and made some of his big plays! They worked together to produce the numbers we got.

CJ Beathard. Excited to see what he does Saturday.

But the next WR taken after our pick was Deandre Hopkins, Tavon was off the board. I'd rather have him than EJ.

LeGarrette Blount did lead the entire league in rushing TDs (18) this year, FWIW. Also, the statement you quoted was tongue-in-cheek. Take a breath bud.

If you can successfully run and stop the run, and your QB out performs their QB, you win sometimes. I think.

So the Packers have experienced the end of the 2nd Miami game 35 times? That sounds awful.

Definitely looks like a Kubiak student

One month to set the Bills back 5 years. Impressive work!

I think what you both are saying is that there's a 60% chance that a draft produces a franchise QB at all, and there is an 11% chance that the QB you selected is that franchise QB (though I think my definition of a franchise QB is more strict than yours).

I suppose the real question is, of those 4 years with 0, what was the pre-draft perception of the QB classes. Were they regarded highly and flopped? Where there a lot of question marks that got pushed up boards due to need? Same goes for years with 2+ solid QBs. What was the perception of those classes? Did the prospects come out of nowhere and exceed all expectations, or were there simply several prospects that were highly regarded? You taking the total number and applying an average assumes all QB classes are viewed the same every year, and that simply is not the case. EDIT: Based on what I've seen of the prospects, and the opinions shared of others who grade prospects, I believe there will probably be a good QB that comes out of this class, and maybe 1 or 2 more serviceable guys. But none of them are ready to go day 1, and that's why most don't have 1st round grades. You simply aren't going to get an Andrew Luck who turns your 2-14 squad into an 11-5 squad in year 1.

Let's look at QB spending for Playoff Teams vs. Buffalo in 2016 and 2017. Team 2016 QB Spending 2017 QB Spending Green Bay Packers $19,910,318 $21,510,908 Atlanta Falcons $25,500,000 $23,750,000 Seattle Seahawks $18,997,000 $19,345,000 Dallas Cowboys $23,380,848 $25,335,848 Detroit Lions $23,338,820 $22,540,000 New York Giants $25,588,400 $19,700,000 New England Patriots $15,245,534 $15,883,702 Pittsburgh Steelers $25,334,805 $18,890,000 Kansas City Chiefs $20,170, 000 $28,875,500 Oakland Raiders $4,623,009 $2,404,182 <---- Carr on Rookie Deal Miami Dolphins $13,174,117 $22,450,000 Houston Texans $14,412,646 $21,915,146 Buffalo Bills $10,292,562 $16,549,182 It looks to me like we have between $2M and $8M to spend on a vet and we'd still be within the normal amount of cap allocated to the QB position.

At least we only have 1 good QB in our division. Those numbers are clearly effected by having to face Brees, Ryan, and Cam twice each year.

I don't know your stance on DVOA, but our pass offense ranked 19th in DVOA as well. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff

Weird, I thought it was easy to run when you're QB is good.

Adams (S - LSU) > Foster (LB - Bama) > Hooker (S - OSU) > Lattimore (CB - OSU) > Davis (WR - Western Michigan) > White (CB - LSU) > Williams (WR - Clemson) imo

If cost is factored in I could see there being an argument (for clarity, I am not making this argument as I believe this topic is pointless). Unfortunately I do not know what Rivers' cap number would be here and I don't know what players and/or picks it would take to acquire him. I could see some people thinking we would have a better squad with Tyrod, a 1st round draft choice, and $4M more to spend of FAs than it would be with Rivers, no 1st round draft choice, and less money to fill holes.

All from a very different era with very different rules involving the passing game.

Is he going to pull a Carson Palmer and just threaten retirement?