TPS

Adam Smith said the same thing...

This one is really tough for me to predict. In my preseason prediction, I had it down as a loss on their way to a 10-6 season, but I think it's in play now. There are so many variables in this one, but first to re-cap. In week one, I was so confident in the Bills that I selected them in my survivor pool. In week 2, I said it was going to be a tough one, with the Bills getting bullied in the first half, but Fitz bringing them back for a last second win (I thought FG). Now for this week... I think the Pats typically take the Bills lightly in the first meeting, which is why the past two (first meetings) have been close. This time, they will not. On O: I think Belichick is going to try to show how brilliant he is by shutting down the play-calling of the man Buddy Nix called the best in the business this week, Chan Gailey. I think the Bills HAVE to set the tone by running the ball, and being more physical than the Pats D. If we can't establish the run early, it will be a long day for the Bills, again... In the passing game, I think this is the game where Donald Jones has to step up. He will have most of the 1 on 1 match ups, and he has to win those. On D: This is all about the front 7. Dareus has to command double teams, which should give Williams and Kelsay more 1 on 1 match ups. While we expect Williams to do well, Kelsay could make the difference in this game. Merriman??? Let us pray... I think the Bills will keep the Pats running game in check, for the most part. The key for this game will be slowing down Welker. It will be interesting to see who covers him? I hope that Barnett puts a licking on him when he comes over the middle. Byrd and Wilson need to have great games. I think STs is a push. I think the Bills can finally go toe-to-toe with the Pats. I'm not so sure it will (and I hope it won't) be the high scoring game everyone expects. My best guess at this point: if the winning team scores <=24, then the Bills win; if it's > 24, the Pats win. The Bills will probably need to get some TOs for this to happen. Go Bills!

Not that they were over-valued to begin with, or there couldn't have been a bubble, could there?

There was an article I linked to some months ago with a quote from Stevie (if I recall correctly) saying that he liked Gailey's offense because it allowed receivers to be creative in their route running. The goal was to be at a particular spot within a specified time (a few seconds obviously). I certainly don't know enough or watch film to see if this is the case, but I found it interesting. Here's the quote:

I guarantee we won't see his "lights out jerk" during the intro this week!

I saw that too. I said out loud to my buds sitting on either side, "Did Merriman just hurt himself?" It couldn't have been too bad, especially after watching him on that last pass rush.

You new around here? Holy crap! Hope you are well...

Those stats are so last year... Different run D with Dareus, Barnett and Merriman (yes I think he's improved the run D). Dareus, Williams and Edwards provide the beef up front, which allows someone like Scott to play more often than Davis. Probably see Morrison a bit more too. Can you force the run? NO. You can "dare them to run" though, with more nickel and dime D packages. I say the front 3 and Merriman is the key to victory this week--dominate the LOS.

Jackson left and right Patriots don't have the might Hangover Monday....

Word(s).

you're nuts! Actually, there were a few plays the Bills were going to go after Campbell, but the Raiders called screen, and Bills got burned at least 3 times on 3rd and long. I think you are somewhat right in that his job was mainly to hold the edge. The D strategy will be turned upside down this week--stop Brady.

As I posted in another thread, Fred Jackson; and Fitz directing long drives in order to keep their O off the field. On D: I seem to recall one of the games last year where the Bills dared the Pats to run, and they did. I don't think that happens this year, that kind of success in the run against the Bills. I think we'll see a lot of Kirk Morrison and/or Bryan Scott over ADavis, as we'll need speed at the LB positions over braun. KWilliams needs to earn his money this week too. Between Dareus, Williams and Merriman, I think the Bills can get to Brady enough to stop some drives. It would also be nice to have a turnover or two. Maybe McKelvin steps up and into a passing lane this week... This should be a good competitive game by the Bills. They will need a little luck (not in the draft), and they are due...

On a serious note, I think there was also a quote in the B-News (maybe by baby face Nelson) that the goal is to get the play call in quick so Fitz can get to the line, see the defense match-up, then go after the weakness.

I agree with you. But, maybe I disagree too.

How much of "accuracy problems" is actually miscommunication/lack of playing time? The Bills' passing game is about getting to a spot, or finding an open spot in a zone. So much of that is based on knowing your receivers. Fitz was not the starter last year, so didn't have the work with most of the starters with the exception of StevieJ. We read all about how Fitz had his receivers working with him during the holdout. This guy is a good QB. Coming is as the #1 is showing. He will have his bad days, bad quarters, etc. All QBs do. However, like Gailey said, he is a winner.

This is exactly where I had us. I think most of us, who were optimistic early, were optimistic for sound reasons. I'm actually more encouraged by this victory because the Raiders were a test of how far the Gailey/Nix regime has come in their quest to be a big, physical, tough team. That's the kind of team that can play with the Jets and Pats. In my preseason prediction, I had us going 10-6, but with us losing both games to the the Jets/Pats. I think it's quite possible that we win 2 of those 4, which will probably be offset with some unexpected losses. 10-6 is very doable. It's understandable for Bills' fans to be wary. However, this is a different beast. This team has the best opportunity in years to win Sunday.

I think a lot of the criticism of the D is better attributed to HJ's excellent play-calling for the Raiders. Big screen passes that caught a hard-charging Buffalo D off-guard at least 3 times on 3rd down. Long passes on first downs, like Moore's last TD catch. These are things that are easily fixable. For me, this game tells me the Bills are now physical enough to match the Jets, which was going to be my gauge for this team. A physical team like the Jets is how you beat the Pats. I think we can take this game. I also think the Pats will lose to the Raiders. They are a good team.

There is a method to their madness though. Gailey wanted to get bigger and tougher all around. On O, they needed to get bigger and stronger in the middle, so they move Wood to C and bring in a couple of maulers like Urbik and Reinhart (to compete with Levitre). At WR, their game is mainly short passing, so you need guys who can separate quickly and aren't afraid to go over the middle. This philosophy meant Hangartner and Evans were expendable. Other than those two, who else would you put in your category "a lot of vets"? Shirley, you wouldn't count Stroud?

It must be difficult waking up every morning.

They held McFadden down; Bush had one good run; and the WR reverse netted 25 yards. It was a pretty solid day against one of the best running teams in the league. The D got killed on 3rd down screens, which is correctable.

At half time, I told a gloating Raider fan sitting in front of me that the Bills will win it. There wasn't the usual "we suck" attitude. We knew it could happen. Fitz and Freddie were awesome!

I disagree. You will see more pressure against Brady than they have managed in years. Dareus and Williams will get pressure inside, and Merriman will have his best game next Sunday. I think the Bills match up well against the Pats on both sides of the ball now. While I had this down as a loss too, I think we can just as well sneak out a win here.

Fred Jackson. Keep their O off the field.

Doubt it.

It was hot down on the field, so they were doing a lot of rotation to keep guys fresh. We were all dying of thirst in the 4thQ, but no one could leave their seats!