The Frankish Reich

When they punted on 4th and 2 I said they’ll get the ball back down 21 with 10 minutes left. I was wrong. There’ll be 11 minutes left.

Remember Billy Beane in Moneyball? “My sh!^ doesn’t work in the playoffs.” We have a team that will win 13 games a year no problem. But one that is not sufficiently adaptable to win consistently in the playoffs. And Burrow = Brady, Allen = Rodgers. Which is fine, but which leaves you with one ring vs half a dozen.

Cincinnati is the better team. There. I said it.

Kelce is a big TE but not the biggest. He's certainly not the fastest. So we watch him and say, "how does he keep getting open/making big plays?" Basketball fans see Nikola Jokic and say "how does that slow-footed Serbian who can't jump keep winning MVPs?" Kelce is just plain football-smart in the way Jokic is basketball-smart. They see the field/court better than anyone else. We saw that in the KC game last year where he basically told Mahomes where he'd be with the certainty that he'd be open. Meanwhile, freak of nature huge/fast athletes like Noah Fant remain consistently mediocre. Sometimes you're just the best at playing your position.

Yeah. Kelce is just pretty damn good at finding/creating that open space too.

Concussion. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/playoffs/2021/01/17/chiefs-overcome-injury-patrick-mahomes-beat-browns-nfl-playoffs/4199854001/

Look, Santos can’t be removed from Congress. There’s no authority for that. We get it. But his party doesn’t need to treat him like a regular old candidate who puffed up his own credentials. I guess they can continue to count on him voting the party line, but he doesn’t need to have committee assignments, and he really shouldn’t have anyone defending him or comparing his preposterous (really, compulsive) lying to that of the garden variety politician. Trump, Biden, Bill Clinton all told whoppers, but this guy is a whole different animal. A difference of kind, not of degree. A complete fool who ought to be shunned by all.

Agreed. No offense taken. I’m just defending that Ringer nerd who was effusive in his praise of Allen and Dorsey but is being ripped here for saying a slightly more conservative Allen (given the game situation) could be even better … Bills fans have a weird defensiveness about ANY type of criticism of their heroes. That’s what 20 years of utter futility did to us.

Win expectancy added. That’s what the OC and the QB have to internalize and make a quick seat of the pants estimate of before drawing up the play/throwing the ball. It’s easier with basketball. For years analytics have shown the mid-range jump shot is the worst expected points per possession play. 2 points if you make it. You probably shoot 50% on those. Expected points: 1. A really good 3-point shooter (and there’s lots and lots of them now because this is understood) makes 40% of his 3s. 1.2 points expected. But … not every situation calls for playing it this way. Example: your team is up 3 points. 35 seconds left. Taking -a 3 (assume there’s no such thing as an offensive rebound) means a 60% chance your opponent gets the ball with 11 seconds left and a chance to tie. Taking the 3 is a bad move unless you have Steph Curry or Damian Lillard on your team and he’s unguarded at the 3 point line.

A particularly stupid way to put it. Which 20% chance at a 50 yard completion will you substitute for a 90% chance for a 10 yard completion" is what they're saying. Expected yards gained may still favor the former by a tick, but the latter is better for sustaining a drive and depriving the opponent of their own chance to score.

Of course. But ... game situation. Quality of the opponent's offense. The exact same criticisms were made of Mahomes in the first half of 2021, and he seems to have made minor adjustments (much like The Ringer article suggests for Josh) that have made them better. It's not personal! They are not questioning Josh's intelligence or ability. Just stating the obvious, and backing it up with some examples and stats.

That's not how I read it. One of the plays he focuses on resulted in an incomplete pass. The point is that Josh was so focused on trying complete the long ball to Gabe that he didn't take the relatively easy 20 yard + gain to Diggs.

I doubt you read it. The article is almost completely complimentary of Josh, starting with a bunch of stats that suggest the Bills offense and Josh are really better than ever. And then it points out (and documents) the obvious: it could be better still if he dialed back the aggressiveness just a little bit, particularly when the situation calls for it. Only a died in the wool 100% fanboy would see it otherwise. It's not just about the interceptions. It's also about going for the home run ball when easy medium yardage gainers are there for the taking.

Really good analysis. And yes, as the article shows, Allen is to blame, not Dorsey. The easy yards are there, but Josh has been a little too eager to take the home run swing (and miss).

Really good analysis. The prescription: just dial down the aggressiveness a little bit. The only thing I'd add (to be fair, hinted at in the article when they say Allen is playing every game like it's the Chiefs playoff shootout last year): be more aware of the game situation. Miami with Skylar Thompson at QB would've been hard pressed to score even 17 points without Bills offensive mistakes. You don't always need to go for the kill shot downfield when you can slowly starve your opponent to death.

Please don't go away, George. Every single day is a new fun tidbit about you. Every. Single. Day.

The guy is pretty stupid too. When they started talking about him appearing in drag in Rio, we all knew someone would have the photos. Except Georgie that is. He’s really got to improve his game. In this situation any competent PR person would have told him to go with “I am proud to be a gay American, and I proudly participated in the world’s greatest costume gala in Rio. I would never present myself in that manner to young children or in a school setting. And Ron DeSantis says that’s perfectly fine with him.” You just can’t make this $**! up.

Really? Justin Fields? That might be a fit. Kyler Murray once he’s healthy? Ryan Tannehill wherever he may go? Tim Tebow (hehe) There’s a lot of teams with limited (at least at this point in their careers) QBs that would become better immediately with Roman as OC. it may be his fate that his ability to make the most out of limited QBs will doom him to working with them forever.

TBD fans today: “pass” TBD fans if Allen and the offense this weekend look like they did last weekend: fire Dorsey! Bring back Roman!!

Much like the Shanahans, any Roman-coached offense will, without fail, run the ball effectively. Yes, we are in a pass-happy NFL today. But the lack of a consistent run game has hurt us before, and it may very well hurt us again.

I agree. Roman’s history: - success in SF with Kaep, a guy who basically would never be the classic dropback/pocket passer. - success is Buffalo by using his system to hide the shortcomings of Tyrod Taylor - success in Baltimore with Lamar. See Point 1, above. So what happens if he inherits a really, really good QB who can win in all kinds of different ways? Does he transform him into a run-first guy? Or does he build a system that complements that QB’s abilities? Before Kaep he had Alex Smith in SF, during the time Smith turned from consensus bust into Pro Bowl QB. Smith was the (extremely) poor man’s Josh Allen — a good (not great like Josh) thrower and a good (not great like Josh) runner. It won’t happen, but it would be very interesting. Actually, the Broncos may want to give Roman a call … Edit: hat tip to Alphadawg7 - you beat me to it.

I've mentioned before that I've had clearances at various times and for various reasons. And here's what always gets me: is it too much to ask that our elected representatives be people who could pass a security clearance investigation and keep that clearance? - Swalwell: FAIL - Matt Gaetz: FAIL (hey, let's appoint him, Boebert, MGT to investigate other people! It takes one to know one) - Trump/Biden (and yes, Hillary): FAIL And probably dozens of other members of Congress who have been compromised in some manner or other, and/or who have egregiously mishandled classified information. At least George Santos was given committee assignments where he really can't do any harm. Go for it! I'm worried that your past may be too clean to ever get elected.

No. The party leadership can freeze you out if they choose to. They make the rules.

I have to disagree. We can't underestimate the ego, now perhaps merging into self-delusion. He absolutely wants to show he's not the reason for his team's collapse. Raiders: I don't see it. That means getting past Mahomes and Herbert. He chose Tampa because it gave him a clear route to the post-season. I suspect the same reasoning will prevail now. Titans: Nashville? I don't see it. The lights of Music Row aren't bright enough. So ... Miami. Old man owner loves him. They have the horses and need a QB. Josh and the Bills are the only deterrent to that. Mid-season I would've said "back home to SF" but the way Purdy has played (and the way Tommy has played) makes me think that won't ever happen. Absolutely not "a journeyman." That's Teddy Bridgewater. He's a clear huge upgrade over that. Would he be "great" in Miami? I'm not sure, but revenge fantasies aside, I'd rather not see him playing there.

Truth. But some truths need not be spoken.