Something to think about trading up to get Sammy Watkins in the #4 spot. Firstly, I am not sure if it is the best play. But, I thought about doing some quick research about the first WR taken in the draft over the last 10 drafts. Here they are...
2013 - at #8 Tavon Austin
2012 - at #5 Justin Blackmon
2011- at #4 AJ Green
2011 - at #6 Julio Jones (honorable mention)
2010 - at #22 Demaryius Thomas
2009 - Darius Heyward-Bey
2008 - N/A none in 1st round
2007 - at #2 Calvin Johnson
2006 - at #25 Santonio Holmes
2005 - at #3 Braylon Edwards
2004 - at #3 Larry Fitzgerald
There are many ways to slice and dice it. But, I think it proves mostly that the first WR off the board has a high percentage of panning out to be a stud when they are taken early in the draft.
Look at it these two ways to increase the odds.
1. If you take the top WR and he is in the top 4 overall (AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald)...you have a 75% chance (3 of 4) of drafting a stud 10 year WR.
2. If you take the 1st or 2nd WR off the board in the top 6 (AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald, Justin Blackmon, Julio Jones)...you have a 67% chance (4 of 6) of drafting a stud 10 year WR.
Taking a WR with more chance may or may not pan out. I think Stevie is a throw in if replaced (and I am not a fan of him). So, you are giving up a 2nd round pick in a DEEP draft to roll the dice on the best WR. For those who say he is missing the height of the others, his vertical makes up for it.
Just food for thought. It may not be my first choice either, but, if it happens, I will wait and see and NOT be dissappointed. We will need to strike great on our 3rd rounder for sure.
If we could do next years 2nd instead of this years 2nd that would be great.
If we could get a later pick in the draft back in a deep draft that would help us try to hit on someone else since we are already missing our 6th rounder, great.
Having Watkins, Woods, Goodwin and Williams is legit for next year AND the future!
Thoughts?