GunnerBill

They did expect a blitz on the final play, but they misread it at the line and protected from the opposite side to where the blitz came. Joe brady had a play that was designed to attack where they thought the blitz was coming but it came the other way and they ended up in scramble mode.

Yep. It was at the time (and I think still) the worst defense in NFL history. They allowed over 7,000 yards in a 16 game season. To put that in context it was like 200 yards worse than Carolina (the 32nd defense in the NFL this year) gave up in a 17 game season.

The problem in this game was that they didn't run their defensive philosophy / scheme enough. When they got to it the game turned a bit. They spent too long in the first half trying to run a defense they are less suited for and less practiced in. Its been a criticism of mine on the defense all year, they have been trying too hard to do different things rather than focusing on doing what they do well and trying to do it better. I get it, Babich has now doubt heard the noise that Leslie Frazier was too predictable, ran the same stuff too often, didn't have a plan B etc. But the result of trying to be this multiple and run these more unique game to game plans has been worse outcomes on defense. This will not be a popular view on these boards but left to me I'd simplify the defense massively. Get back to what we are good at. Play zone defense, behind primarily a 4 man rush and upgrade at safety. I know that hasn't had playoff success against KC, I accept that. But it did make our D better the rest of the time. We have made it worse in the pursuit of being more multiple and haven't generated a payoff for that in the playoffs.

He isn't a route runner he is a space finder. He never ran routes at Boise and was never coached to run routes in that offense. When he first got here they tried to teach him route running and he just kept running into coverage. They backed off it and the way they use him right now is perfect. It suits his skillset and it suits the team. He isn't diverse enough to say "that's a guy we have to force targets to." I should be clear as well, because not sure I was yesterday, but have been previously like in the thread that predicted him for a thousand yard before the 2024 season - that if Shakir plays 5 or 6 years with Josh Allen I expect he will have a 1,000 yard season somewhere along the line. I just don't think he is a guy you can feature to the extent that he is going to be consistently a 1,000 yard plus guy. He is our most productive an reliable receiver currently, of that there is no doubt, but he should be a complimentary piece. That is the role he fits. The fact fans are talking about him as though he is a feature piece is an indictment of how the rest of the WR room has been built. And that's on Brandon Beane.

Yea they got us on that play. It's Andy Reid he is gonna get everyone on those plays now and again. The Bills original gameplan was poor, their half time adjustments were good. They still had a chance to win the game at the end despite everything and they failed to get it done because their talent failed.

Yea the defense sucked. No argument.

Josh admitted last night he made the wrong protection call. He also got himself out of it if a first round pick could catch.

I mean the D was bad first half last night but they did make a big stop. They held the Chiefs to a FG despite a 15 yard facemask penalty in that drive. They gave Josh Allen and the offense 3 minutes and change all 3 timeouts. Score a touchdown to go to the Superbowl. And they couldn't get it done. For the second time in 2 years they were right there and couldn't make the play on offense. That isn't to defend the defense. In the first half the game plan was wrong and they were manhandled. But if someone offered you Josh Allen has the ball down 3, 3 minutes left all 3 time outs before the game every single fan here would have signed for that.

Allen was not just a slot he was a move reciever played outside and in. My argument on Shakir is two fold - we have seen that as his volume increased his impact reduced. There is obviously a levelling off effect at some point there but no I don't accept you just increase targets and the numbers jump in proportion. The reason for that is the type of targets you can feed him are limited. He is not a great route runner, so you just have to find him spaces - which are ordinarily underneath - and get the ball in his hands. Welker and Edelman were technician route runners. Khalil isn't that. I have said it before the guy he reminds me of is Austin Eckler just playing slot rather than receiving back.

It will sting for a few days. I have my first mock of the year, full two rounder, all but read to go so I'll give the forum a couple of days to mourn the loss and then I'll drop that midweek. That will be my turn the page and we are on to Green Bay moment.

Yea. Not sold. This is a poor receiver group.

Yes, I'd 100% take him he is definitely better than anything we'd get in the 2nd, this is a poor receiver class by modern standards..... BUT he still isn't the ideal type that I want. I want a more natural separator. Pickens is as good a contested catch guy and there is but ideally I want someone who is going to get open. There is only one top WR and he isn't getting to 10.

Oh yes, I was commenting on Kincaid not Josh. for Josh to make that throw under that pressure is incredible. He needed a guy to make a play, not an extraordinary play, just a slightly tougher than average play, for him and his guy failed.

On the bolded - two points: 1. I have been clear part of the reason they did well against us in the first half in particular was because we tried to man up and that's hard when you are at a huge speed disadvantage which the Bills DBs were. Once we went to much more zone defense in the 2nd half the Chiefs found it harder. 2. But if you are asking me do I think Coleman and Hollins in the same situation get the same separation as Worthy and Hollywood in particular? No, I don't. So in that sense, yes, they'd do worse. I don't think the Chiefs receivers are fantastic by any means but it is no surprise they have improved offensively since getting Hollywood healthy and since Worthy started figuring things out. Because before that they were having the exact same issues as us - struggled separating. They brought Hopkins in and it didn't really help because at this stage of his career he doesn't separate. Hollins made two great contested grabs on darts from Josh yesterday but as I said all offseason... contested catches are a hard way to make a living consistently as an offense in the NFL. Separation is king.

I hadn't seen it from that angle. It's even worse. That is no more than a 6/10 for difficulty by NFL standards

The word would be urgency.

Yea days 1 and 2 are for the execs. Day 3 is for the scouts. There is a part for Beane there, sure when they have their board building meetings he needs to ask the right questions of his scouts to make sure the way they stack it is right for him to then execute the picks but the major credit goes to the lower downs for day 3.

So part of the answer to that is they run the most extra OL and still a fair amount of legit two tight end (Kincaid and Knox) and when you do that it is your slot receiver that suffers snaps wise. Shakir can't play wide. He is slot only. While his overall snap count is barely over 50% he played 72.5% of the Bills passing snaps that Josh Allen took (i.e. excluding week 18 with Mitch) and if you remove the passing snaps in the game Khalil missed at Houston he is actually at 76.5% for the year which is right in the range you'd want. I disagree that he could have been a top 10 or top 5 receiver though. Shakir is who he is. A nice complimentary player. The numbers he put up this year - 800 yards 4 touchdowns - that is basically who he is IMO. On why Hollins had the highest snap count among our receivers, that's easy. He plays outside so doesn't lose snaps to Anderson and/or Kincaid and Knox and he was the only receiver healthy all year and who played all 20 games (17 regular season and 3 post). He is actually slightly behind Shakir on passing down usage in games with with Josh at 67%. I don't think the rotation is about everybody eats (with the exception of Cooper who they definitely only ran a limited package for) so much as it is about the Bills being one of the more formationally diverse offenses in the league this year. I know but two years in a row with the season on the line Josh has to throw it to someone. It can't be himself and it can't be Spencer Brown.

I did some work on receivers last week. I didn't get as far down the list as Meeks though. I like Restrepo some, but year I think he is another primarily slot guy so as a Bills fit not sure. I don't think it's a great class to be honest (probably generally, though not as down on it as some are, but certainly for receivers).

But it isn't the 4th best set of skill position players and two years in a row, whatever the failings on defense, and I agree there many (some of those are personnel as well by the way), the offense has had the ball at the end with a chance to win the game. When you have an elite QB you are supposed to win from there, regardless of what has happened in the previous 56/57 minutes. Now why haven't we? I don't think Josh is the reason. I do think what is around him is. What Beane is to blame for is screwing up the first round of the draft three years running.

Watch how badly Torrence got blown up. A sneak to the right would have had no chance.

Lions, Eagles, Ravens are the three that spring to mind. And our skill players are comfortably the weakest of those, Josh is doing a lot of heavy lifting in those comparators.

They are joined at the hip. But at the moment if there is something driving me to move on it is their personnel decision making not their coaching decision making. On the bolded I just disagree. Our skill players on offense are still at best middle of the league and if you take Cook out then well below that. They performed as they did in year because Josh and Joe raised the level. As Beane always says how you lose your last game shows your weaknesses, ours are when we need to go downfield aggressively we find it a challenge.

Of course McDermott has a say but it is Brandon Beane's call. I know two people who have been in the building - one on each side - and they both say independently of the other that Beane runs the draft. He'd never pick a guy Sean is vehemently against, they are too collabrative for that. But Sean isn't grinding hours of tape to decide between Coleman or Worthy or Mitchell or whoever. That is Brandon Beane's job and he is accountable for those picks.

I am definitely in they are on the hotseat next year. But I repeat what I have said elsewhere the GM's seat should be significantly hotter of the two.