GunnerBill

Oliver did miss basically two and a half games. One injured (think v Texans?), week 18, and almost all the 2nd half of week 17 when they sat him early. That is why his snap % went down. I disagree on both being over 85%. You have to keep Dlinemen fresh.

I will do the numbers for this year at some point but last year the Bills were smack bang in the middle for season long (regular and post season) DL rotation rates among playoff teams.

I get that and I understand your perspective, I do think Higgins might the best upgrade available at boundary receiver this offseason. But I also think long term in this league it is separation that wins.

I'd be fine with that. Jevon Holland at free safety is my #1 target but I see the argument for DJ Reed too. It makes sense.

I don't disagree with you at all on receiver. The last two drafts there have been makeable tradeups there - for Addison in 2023 who I know they loved and went 4 spots before their original pick and for Thomas in 2024 who went 5 spots before their original pick. They have underinvested in receivers. I think only Tampa have invested less in day 1 and 2 capital during Beane's era and they had Evans and Godwin. I am a big Higgins fan, he is the guy I'd have taken if they hadn't traded for Diggs in 2020 (thought in hindsight clearly Jefferson was the pick) but he still isn't the exact skillset we need. He is better than what we have, for sure, and he can separate but I am not sure he is the pure separation guy we need. I'd like him, sure. He is instantly the #1 on this team. But if he wants $30m AAV for 4 or 5 years.... man that's tough.

Maybe. I am up for making a splash move at both to be honest.

It was probably predictable that of the guys I highlighted beforehand (ie. the bigger names who accepted invites) I think I am right in saying only two suited up: Jordan Phillips, the defensive tackle out Maryland, and Jamon Dumas-Johnson, the linebacker out of Kentucky. It was a very lob-sided and unbalanced game in two ways. First, on the scoreboard where the East shut out the West on the way to a 25-0 victory, and second in terms of the contest between offense and defense where I thought the defenses for the most part had their way - especially up front - which says to me that even further down the draft the strength of this class comes on the defensive side. With that context in mind, onto the guys that stood out to me: Starting on offense... The MVP of the game was Jacory Croskey-Merritt (#31, running back, East) who had 97 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries. He came into this game with fresh legs after playing just once for Arizona this year due to eligibility issues. He is a 6-year college player who will turn 24 just before the draft, and while he showed a really good blend of speed and power on outside runs I think he is probably restricted to an outside zone scheme that prioritises that. Would expect someone to pick him on in the latter half of day 3 and it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up making a team and being a productive change of pace backup throughout his rookie contract. On the other side Corey Kiner (#26, running back, West) only managed 3 rushes for 20 yards but showed good vision to pop his longest run - a 13 yarder. I'm a sucker for running backs with good vision and Kiner has been a productive college back for Cincinnati. He is a different type of fit to Croskey-Merritt and I think suits teams who want to run more gap scheme but I expect he will be drafted in a similar range - mid to late day 3. The most productive receiver on the day was Efton Chism (#81, wide receiver, East) who had four receptions for 41 yards out of the slot. Coming out of Eastern Washington he has drawn Cooper Kupp comparisons but he is nothing like the athlete Kupp was. He ran his routes nicely, and he caught the ball, but his lack of another gear to generate YAC was evident and while his performance may have lifted him from UDFA to 7th round pick sort of status I think he is likely destined for practice squad service in the NFL. The receiver who has the most impressive play of the night was Will Sheppard (#14, wide receiver, West) who ran a really good route outside and demonstrated good route running and understanding of leverage to separate from a defender and haul in a 20 yard completion. He had over 600 yards and 6 touchdowns for Colorado in 2024 and isn't someone who was on my radar before this game. I'll go and dig into him some more but he is intriguing as a bigger body guy who can run routes and is supposed to have some speed. Initial thoughts were early day 3 type of value but in a weaker receiver class he could sneak into the end of day 2. Onto defense... I'll start with Jordan Phillips (#8, defensive tackle, West) who I mentioned in my preview and was really looking forward to seeing. He played okay, and his penetration forced the East to bounce a couple of rushing attempts outside and into the arms of waiting defenders, but I thought he had a chance to force himself into day 2 consideration with a really dominant display and he didn't take that chance - still an early day 3 guy for me. His partner on the interior defensive line, Cam Horsely (#93, defensive tackle, West) did flash, however, recording a Quarterback pressure on a nice stunt up front, had a run stuff and recovered a fumble. He has only half a sack over the past two seasons in the middle of the Boston College Dline so is likely a very deep sleeper, who probably ends up a priority UDFA but he helped himself in this game. Another defensive tackle who impressed was Tonka Hemingway (#96, defensive tackle, East) who burst through a double team to record a sack, registered a tackle for loss and batted down two passes. He is another older prospect, aged 23, and I'm not sure he is a nuanced player, but in a scheme where he can just be told "see ball, get ball" he has some rotational value as a day 3 pick. Finally on the defensive fronts, the star man was Johnny Walker (#15, edge rusher, East) who had two sacks, including a forced fumble, and two tackles for loss. He is a wide 9 alignment type guy, probably best suited as an OLB in a 3-4, but after taking three years to make his mark at Missouri he has 14.5 sacks over the past two seasons and he could be a steal on day 3 of the draft. A couple of defensive backs to conclude with, firstly, Tyron Herring (#34, corner, East) who had an interception and another pass break up where his eye discipline took him to the ball and allowed him to stay in phase with the receiver. He is a late round / priority UDFA zone corner waiting to happen - he is the main player from this game that I thought the Bills scouts present would have been noting down as a scheme fit. Second was Nohl Williams (#3, corner, West) who also made a really nice play on the ball on a rep where he lost off the line but recovered and kept his eyes back on the ball rather than on the receiver. It was really good technique and I liked how aggressive he was willing to be at the line. He looks like more a press man guy and because of that will be drafted. Probably day 3 but sneaking into the end of day 2 is not impossible.

It is one of the worst QB drafts I think that is for sure. Defensive tackle is where the strength of this draft is and there is a good edge rush group too. Think it is weak all around on offense. Worst receiver class in a very long time (maybe back to the Laquan Tredwell, Corey Coleman draft whenever that was?). There are a handful of good offensive linemen early but not a lot of NFL left tackles among them and the deoth drops off quickly. I think quite a few college left tackles who you will have to try and make guards or right tackles in the pros. Running back classes are all much of a muchness in recent years. Yea there are 3 or 4 decent tight ends - haven't got into the depth of that group yet. EDIT: on Dart I will have to reserve my opinion on that one too at this stage. He is one of the 5 or 6 I think are draftable based on tv viewing. Possibly day 2, maybe day 3 but that is a gut reaction more than a considered view.

No, I don't. But I don't think it has, Ed excepted, the explosiveness I would want as a trade off for being on the smaller side. I think if you are going smaller you want to trade off to be explosion and speed and right now it isn't - neither at DL or at LB - and that is the issue. In the secondary Benford and Bishop are both decent athletes, less so Rapp, Douglas and Hamlin. The problem for Bishop is he can't cover a stationary object at this point and so he needs a lot of work to be ready to be a full time starter. Maybe the game slows down for him this offseason and he can come out and look like a different player. But right now the only use for him is as a full time "big nickel" or dime look box safety. I haven't watched the Senior Bowl yet. Finished the Shrine Bowl last night and about to write it up, will get to the Senior Bowl at some point this week. I know you have never been a Milroe guy. I really don't have a strong opinion on him, these days with the Bills not needing one I do the Quarterbacks last in my e v a l process, but my instinct from watching a few 'Bama games the past couple of years is he is a mid-round pick. The problem is, as you say, this is a really thin QB class. I think it might be a year where true draftable grades it will be like 5 or 6 guys at best. And there are lots of teams who need one.....

I'd take those first 4 picks. It's a bit "high floor, lower ceiling" other than Morrison but I think they'd all find a role on this team.

He is too one dimensional for me to want him in round 1. I think he offers almost zero pass rush. I just don't think that is a round 1 pick even if you need a 1T. I agree arm measurement at the combine matters for his draft stock too. If he was on the board at the end of round two I might be persuadable. But at #30, no way, whether his arms are long or short.

I sort of disagree on Groot because I don't think sacks tell the whole story but he is gonna be a tough call because there is a scenario where the number goes to a place I'm not willing to land. But I agree on Bernard. He was not the same guy this year that we saw last year and I think Cook has passed him on the priority keep list. Not yet at "they must keep Cook" but I'd priortise him over Bernard. Oh and I feel like Cook about the Superbowl. I will watch but it is the least attractive Superbowl of all time.

Kenneth Grant from Michigan is a bigger guy with enough talent to play as a 1T in 4-3 or as a true nose in a 3-4. Tyliek Williams from Ohio State could too. Some think Deone Walker from Kentucky but I think am a bit lower than most on him. Personally if you want that type - a 1T who is just a massive body to try and move I'd be looking early day 3 at guys like Jamaree Caldwell out of Oregon or Yahaya Black out of Iowa. Personally I am less obsessed with getting a huge guy but they would be the names if you are.

Yea he has played better than the bare sack numbers. Sacks alone are not a great way of evaluating DTs. But it is also fair to say Jones wasn't quite as good as some other years.

Interesting, thanks. That doesn't surprise me with the rawness. Still the tools he has are the things that are rare to find. If it takes me a season or 2 to teach him the rest I think I can live with it.

The good news on the Dline is it IS the strength of this draft class.

I think you are right with one exception: Spencer Brown was without question elite this season. Now there is a difference between having an elite season and "being elite". I think he needs to back it up next year to be called truly elite.

I don't think Hyde was ever elite. At his peak I think Poyer had a couple of elite level seasons. And Tre White at his peak was definitely elite. The Bills D 2020-2022 was legitimately excellent. It didn't get it done in the playoffs, that is fair. But it was a very good defense.

This is true albeit the Colts went 10-6; 2-14; 11-5. That said they went from Manning to getting Kerry Collins out of retirement and a 6th rounder Curtis Painter (who never played in the NFL again) to Luck. If that Colts team had Fitzpatrick or Tyrod level play in 2011 it would have won 6 or 7 games minimum. They didn't want to win that many. Indeed when they put Orlovsky in the last five games they went 2-3 beating two teams still in the playoff race. You can both not be satisfied with that and not want to blow it up. If the Bills only sign one free agent this offseason it should be Jevon Holland. He would be a huge safety upgrade.

Yea basically you see what I see. Twitchy, bendy, explosive all the unteachable raw abilities you want in a pass rusher but at the moment he isn't a 3 down player, especially in a 4-3 front because: he has a tendency to lose contain (not just in the run game but in his rush lanes too, I'd worry if you were playing Baltimore for example or playing against the Bills, Lamar and Josh would let him bend out round the top and escape through his gap); doesn't anchor super well and needs to add strength in his lower half and your point about hand usage is a good one - he lets OL get their hands inside onto his chest too often and when they do he doesn't always appear to have a counter move. Does worry me a tad that the reports from Senior Bowl practices have been "when he can get the edge unblockable but when he has tried to bull rush, ineffectual." There is an adjustment for him in terms of going up against legit NFL level tackles. I'd be very happy to take him for the Bills use him as a designated pass rusher for 1 or 2 years while you develop him and hopefully by late year 2 or year 3 he can be an every down guy... but he doesn't strike me as a Brandon Beane first round pick right now.

I didn't think he caught it either. But they definitely used his speed against our mediocre atheltes in the secondary vs man.

I wouldn't even say 3 steps. Have you caught the ball with 2 feet or an equivalent body part on the ground? If so, catch. If you then drop it, fumble.

Yea agree with all this and I have some sympathy for the argument that we should have held everything back in the regular season, played our standard zone and surprised them with the man looks in the playoffs rather than give them 6 weeks to gamplan to attack us in man. But the Bills were still trying to play for the 1 seed at the time. I would rather treat each game as separate and I'd have not necessarily gone back to the well with the man looks on Sunday. I do think Worthy has come on a ton the last 6 weeks of the year. His targets have gone up because his reliability has improved and his comfort in the offense has grown. But agree totally on Hamlin and Elam. And I don't want Elam on this roster in 2025. I'm in on a trade for Crosby, but I'd be in on a trade for DK too.

I don't buy that Pederson has any deeper knowledge than McDermott. He has been with him more recently, sure. But when I watch the way Doug called offense this year and the way Andy is calling offense there is very little carry over. So I'm just not sure he brings that.

It's a good Dline class this year but if I could trade my first for Max Crosby I'd seriously consider it. I think Garrett is a pipe dream. The price for him is starting at two first rounders, especially for a team like the Bills picking #30.