GunnerBill

Tbf at $20m AAV he doesn't need to be a star DE. If he is an 8 sack a year guy every year of this deal, with maybe one double digit year thrown in and it will be worth it. Just needs to be consistently the best version of what he has been. It is high end edge #2 money. In the Greenard / Huff / Highsmith area. That isn't to say I love it as an idea - paying a #2 DE when you don't have a #1 and as I have said before I thought his AFCCG performance was arguably his worst game as a Bill. But these are high end #2 numbers which is kinda what I see Groot as.

Yea the comparisons on Spotrac are somewhat useful. The actual projection numbers often way off.

Agree but the only thing I'd say is they did Brown coming off his, to that point, best year. He was clearly on the upswing. I know TB had injuries last year but it was definitely a step back on 2023 for him. Does make it a tad riskier IMO.

He shoulda sent a save the date. I'm in Copenhagen then.

I'm 100% with you on everything except Grable's ceiling. I love Grable. I suspect if he ever got on the field you'd never get him off again. But there is no need to mess with the chemistry of the current Oline right now. And Edwards wasn't the weakest member of the starting group anyway - Cybo was. So to take a good guard off the field to put a year 2 tackle who has never played guard in his place? Doesn't make a ton of sense. I am with you on those 9 locked into their spots going into the season. The only serious roster question for me is do they keep a 10th? If they do it will be instead of an extra tight end of DL or LB not instead of one of those nine guys.

He's actually our 3rd. He was the swing tackle when healthy last year. Van Demark was actually OT4. I agree with you on making him a guard though. Technically as well I worry a bit whether he has the knee bend for it. He plays a bit upright which is easier to get away with at tackle.

But remember Beane said they were only around $4m over at the Combine when a lot of the sites were projecting $10m over. So there might not be as much work to do as some expect to just get cap compliant. Now getting to a place where they have space to make moves is different. But based on what Beane said last week if they cut Von today they are there.

We'll see. Maybe not.

Seattle is tanking for Archie. Get the deal done for DK.

I sort of agree although I do think they have a bit more flexibility than that. I'd be surprised if they sign all 4 of the 2022 cohort. Now looks like Cook is the odd man out. They may well wait a year on Benford given the concussions. I think Groot is the one I'm increasingly leaning towards not signing. I'd argue that the thing that has actually held them back from adding difference makers from outside more is the middling vets (FA or Trade) they have signed. The likes of Settle, Harty, Samuel, Douglas, Edwards... I'm missing some. But I think signing all four/five including Groot of their own guys would be too much of a settling move.

Nope

Agree. If 2023 TB this is his market rate, maybe even a little below. At 2024 level TB I think this is an overpay. Not a massive one but an overpay all the same. He'd have been 4th on my list of 4 from that 2022 class to get done.

I think that is pretty much right. I would often say to people in the drought era when they couldn't countenance any credit to any player or any thing..... just because the Bills are bad does mean every player is bad an every decision is wrong. Equally now when the Bills are good it doesn't mean every player is good and every decision they make is right. Both of those positions are major over simplifications. And agree we have had some talented rosters in the past. I think the 2022 roster going into that year looked pretty stacked (possible except for offensive line). But then Tre came back and wasn't the same guy, Von tore his ACL, Micah had the neck injury, Josh got banged up and had some off the field distractions and they were never quite the dominant force they had been the first 6 to 8 weeks. The 2024 roster I think overperformed expectation by a regular season win or two and probably by a round in the post-season. That isn't to excuse the AFCCG loss, because the Bills had opportunities to win that game that they missed. But that was a year of small overachievement. And even within that, to bring it back to the OT Kincaid was a disappointment. I have said I'd be open to trading him. Not for pennies in the pound or anything, I don't want to give him away.... but this is a deep tight end class - I think Knox is a better fit for the offense we want to run and if there was a good deal out there for Dalton that got us a day 2 pick back? I'd definitely consider it. I don't think it will happen mind you and on the basis he is still here 2025 is massive for Dalton. They have to take the option decision at the end of next year and right now, I'm pretty sure they would decline it. He needs to move the dial. p.s. - just one point on the "if you remove Allen" thing 'cos it gets thrown out a lot... I think there is such a range within removing Allen. Are we removing him and starting Mitch Trubisky? Because that is only happening with an injury and if any team loses their franchise QB for most of the year they are pretty sunk. Let's say Josh's broken hand week 1 was a broken wrist (thank the fates it wasn't).... I think we'd have ended up maybe a 5 win team.

You mean Daboll

Jahdae Barron, Walter Nolen, Jihad Campbell, Matthew Golden and Grey Zabel are the guys who I feel like when I started my process in January I had higher grades than the consensus seemed to be but where the consensus has sort of caught up. Guys I always had lower where the consensus has moved in that direction (though not totally sure caught up) were Mykel Williams, Tyleik Williams and Will Johnson. Guys I still think are too high - the top two tight ends. I don't love either of them. They are both sort of in the range I had Dalton Kincaid two years ago - which is fine - somewhere between 20 and 35 on my board, but a lot of people still have Warren as a top 10 player and I can't see that and DJ has Loveland there as well which I find a it mystifying. And Emmanwori who has been a riser is someone I just can't get behind. He is so stiff and straight line in his movements. I don't think he has the flexibility in his hips, or the ball tracking instincts to be a high performing NFL safety. If you are going to 'Kyle Dugger' him and basically use him as a linebacker, fine. Then don't spend a 1st round pick on him. The two guys who I have remained pretty consistent on while the consensus has dropped on them are Kelvin Banks and Malaki Starks. They both remain my positional #1s. If Banks gets drafted by a Shanahan offense style team he will be a perennial all pro. And Starks is just a really solid, consistent, smart football player with great instincts.

I'd rather have the most talented difference making player I can get. At the start of the offseason I'd have ranked them as 1. Garrett, 2. Crosby, 3. DK Metcalf, 4. Hendriksen. Crosby is off the market. So my order of preference is as remaining. I think the Bills need to stop, both in FA and the draft, thinking in terms of this position vs that position and start thinking premium position difference makers ranked by pure ability. Take the best one first whether he is an edge or a receiver.

Oh boy did his arms come in at 32"? If so the Bills would pass even if he was.

Yea he had a poor 2023 but a very good 2022 and 2024. Definitely the best punter since Moorman. Although only a punter.

I did forget Dennison. And on Frazier, I don't think. I know. From as close as you can get to the horses mouth.

He has fired 2 OCs and 2 STCs. Think it is fair to question the hires he has made to the STC role.

I think the Packers off was a 2nd plus Romeo Doubs. I'm not sold that constitutes an unbeatable offer.

Sorry you are correct. I forgot about Rick. 2 OCs fired in 9 years and one left for a HC job.

If DK is saying he only wants a contender it means he is willing to come in at the lower end of his range (roughly $22-26m AAV) on a new deal. The Bills can absolutely make that work. Something like: 3 years, $72m, $40m guaranteed. Signing bonus $32m. 2025 salary: $2m (guaranteed) 2025 amortised signing bonus: $6.4m 2025 cap hit: $8.4m 2026 salary: $10m (of which $6m guaranteed) 2026 amortised signing bonus: $6.4m 2026 cap hit: $16.4m 2027 salary: $28m (zero guaranteed) 2027 amortised signing bonus: $6.4m 2027 cap hit: $34.4m 2028 salary: VOID 2028 amortised signing bonus: $6.4m 2028 cap hit: $6.4m 2029 salary: VOID 2029 amortised signing bonus: $6.4m 2029 cap hit: $6.4m Those first two years work very easily in our cap the you have a decision after 2026. Cutting him at that point gives you a dead cap hit in 2027 of $19.2m which looks scary but against where the cap is now is really not. The anticipated cap in 2027 via Spotrac is $337m and they have been coming in low on their estimates the past couple of years. Using their estimate that dead cap his would equate to 5.6% of the cap but you could spread the pain over two years as a post 1 June ($6.4m in 2027 and $12.8m). Equally if DK us still performing at a high level in 2026 you could redo his deal at that point. You'd have leverage because he'd have no new guarantees left on the deal. So you'd say "we will give you some guaranteed money up front if you agree to spread some of the salary across 2027 and 2028 turning them into 'real' years on the contract." Teams care about cap numbers. Players care about cash. You might to chuck $5m or so additional in as a sweetener (rather than just guaranteeing money that wasn't guaranteed before) but there is a pretty easy, by NFL standards, negotiation to be done there if DK wants to stay and he is still performing. Is it a bit of a chips in play? Sure. Does it come without risk? No. But it is something the Bills can definitely do without being completely all or nothing. It is exactly the sort of controlled aggression that I want to see from them this offseason.

McDermott has fired precisely 1 O/D coordinator. Dorsey. He has fired two STCs and let another walk at the end of his contract. Going into year 9 that is actually pretty solid consistency.

You mean in the league? Cos that is not true of the Bills.