GunnerBill

Yea for the fan voting section name value is huge. Dion does Cowherd and McAfee, hence he makes it. The four most deserving Bills after Josh this year are: Benford, Cook, Brown and Rousseau. I actually think Brown will get all pro votes. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he ended up a 2nd team all pro.

Good defenses are not 31st in the league on 3rd down giving up 44.4%

Arguing about past years is pretty pointless anyway. The Bills have had good defenses in past years that haven't got it done in the playoffs for a myriad of reasons. That isn't relevant to this year because, well, we don't have a good defense.

The Bills won't be messing with this oline in the summer. It has been the star of the team aside from Josh Allen in 2024 and all five guys are under contract for next season. They are running it back untouched IMO.

Milano was one of our best players on a Sunday for me. I was super impressed with him when I looked at all22. His best performance since the injury without any doubt.

Beane has one of the lowest bust rates among all GMs in his time here, and that probably justifies him being looked at as a top 10 GM. Though he has advantages some others don't have: a Head Coach he is in complete lock step with and schematic consistency. While the Frazier defense and the McDermott year and the Babich defense are not just exact replicas of one another the fundamental defensive scheme is unchanged. There has been a little more turnover on offense (mainly offensive line we have flip flopped a few times on what we are looking for in our blocking scheme) but not a ton. Those help you avoid busts because you are not drafting player X to play in one scheme and by his second year finding him in another one. But he misses very rarely and he finds plenty of above average starters too. I don't think it is just that the Bills are "more committed to their draft picks." If I look at the Bills drafted players who are currently starters on this team (excluding rookies): Allen, Cook, Kincaid, Dawkins, Brown, Torrence, Shakir, Rousseau, Epenesa, Oliver, Johnson, Bernard, Milano, Benford, Hamlin I think only Hamlin and possible Epenesa are guys who wouldn't start for the majority of NFL teams. The knock, you are right, is he hasn't found enough elite talent. Indeed this regime has only had three first team all pros in their eight seasons: Tre White (2019), Jordan Poyer (2021) and Matt Milano (2022). All three of them were acquired by McDermott in the offseason he ran personnel. Beane has two second team all pros: Josh Allen (2020) and Taron Johnson (2023) who I think we would all agree are his two best draft selections and they are the only two guys we have that I think are elite at their positions and would start not just for most teams but like 30 of 32. And while the defence of him in that regard is "ah he always drafts at the end of rounds, it's harder", which is true, he has had seven goes at it now. You need to start showing more for that around your Quarterback than an elite slot corner. I don't think this is a personnel regime making big blunders year after year that need covering up by Josh Allen. That isn't, in my view, a fair characterisation. I think relative to the rest of the league the Bills do a pretty good job and most of the metrics for measuring these things support that. But they are not beyond legitimate questioning either Beane and his staff. They have not been perfect and there are things they need to do better. Finding more elite difference makers and not wasting cap $$s year after year on defensive tackles in FA only to have pull guys off the street in November every season to bolster the room are the top two on my bingo card but there are others too.

He definitely has the range and the phsicaly profile to suggest he should be able to play free safety but at the moment I don't think he is close to there mentally. Still way too many mistakes.

Stick a fork in the Duck. It's cooked.

It doesn't have to be a DL it can be a secondary player who teams are actively scared to throw at. I just don't think we have anyone in that tier right now.

I hate blitzing. It sucks. That was a darn stupid blitz on 4th and 13. Just play the sticks.

I think Groot and Ed are the two guys who have that level of talent. It just hasn't translated to consistently doing it. They have been game wreckers at times but it's that guy the opposition knows beforehand every week "right we gotta keep X quiet to win." I think what @Dan says about Oliver above applies equally to Groot. For us to make it through the playoffs and win the Superbowl we are going to need one of them to play out of their minds for 3 or 4 games. I don't think he was at their level talent wise but remember the year Baltimore won it Paul Kruger the pass rusher with long hair played incredible in the post season. Sacking Quarterbacks, forcing fumbles, he just turned into a monster for like 4 weeks. We need something like that. Kruger signed a big FA deal with Cleveland after the season and was never heard of again 🤣.

Oh I completely know there are things I don't know, especially when it comes to evaluating draft prospects. I only have the bits of film I can get my hands on and the time I have to go through it. I do have a small group of people I can message who might give me a little bit of intel but I don't overuse that, as you say - busy folks spread thin - they don't need to bombarded by questions from amateurs. I had a third on Stevenson in 23. I had a third on Taylor as well this past year. He was the highest graded player left on my board at the end of the draft.

Yea they need a player who dictates on defense. They haven't had one since Tre did the first injury. When he was in his prime the Bills could dictate where they wanted the ball to go because teams didn't want to test White often even when he was one on one. We don't have anyone in the secondary or up front who affects gameplans like that these days.

I have not ignored my opinion about Josh being wrong. Not ever. It is fully accepted. As for Daboll.... I didn't hail him as a genius. I said he was a good offensive coordinator here. He was. So is Brady. Dorsey wasn't horrible, he started quite promisingly. But it went downhill fast.

Thanks. Happy New Year. I think the qay they approached the depth at OL this year. They kept all the potential high ceilings and let the safe, solid, vets go. Might have been cap driven but it was noteworthy I think given previously they have valued that experienced depth.

Ooo good point.

Yea he is definitely a possible. I have got the possible elevations down to WR, TE, S. Two from those three.

Oh I think they do. The last time they tied it under Daboll in 2021 they tried a pass in the endzone to Taiwan Jones. You don't do that if you are not record chasing. Was about the first thing Josh mentioned in his presser after Sunday. I all but guarantee they will give a red zone target to someone who hasn't scored a TD this year on Sunday.

I mean it is both of those. There is more randomness than most fans like to admit. But you are absolutely right that the way to reduce the variance is to have as many elite difference makers as possible and the Bills haven't had enough of them around Allen. Some of that is on their talent evaluation and acquisition and on Beane and to an extent McDermott, some of it is bad luck. Lost their only elite defensive player (Tre White) in 2021 before the playoffs. Brought Von Miller in to be that difference maker in 2022 and lost him before the playoffs that year too. I do think their roster building plan has over emphasised depth and competition at the expense of difference makers though. I think they are trying to pivot on that but we will need to see this roster re-set go into years 2 and 3 to know whether it is successful.

If we made the Superbowl the Eagles are the team I'd least like to see waiting. They have arguably the best pair of trenches OL and DL in the entire league. I don't think we's be "controlling the line of scrimmage" against them.

Of course this is Josh Allen's offense. There is no disputing that. But of the three OCs they have had supporting him in that endevour there is zero point zero per cent doubt that Dorsey was the least able. To keep taking shots at the other two while defending Dorsey's modern day iteration of the chuck and duck is baffling. He is likely about to be fired from his second OC job in just over a year within the next fortnight. I am not worried about Brady getting a Head Coach job. It is going to happen at some point. Just an inevitability. I don't think there is an internal candidate ready to jump in this time, so they'll have to hire from outside. My only worry would be them picking the wrong guy again. Like they did with Dorsey.

Of course they are. Franchise QB always matters more than anything else. That isn't revelationary. It's just fact. But that doesn't get you to where you think it does on coaching.

Brady and Dorsey are not interchangeable. That is laughabe. But I know you will defend your canes guy. It's understandable. But it is not objective.

I don't think that is true of the last 5 years. It is about right this year.

Following this math, it is worth about 2 wins for your QB to be in group 1 rather than group 2. 100/17 means each game is worth 5.8%. 11% win difference between the two groups equates to about two games. Allen was in the 60s last year and the Bills won 11 games. He is in the 70s this year we have won 13. So it sorta checks out. Still, not a lover of QBR and don't know that the analysis proves anything. But the difference between your QB having a good year and a great year being about 2 wins doesn't feel a wild conclusion.