Brandon

Agreed. There's a difference when comparing Ayers and Maybin in terms of past production given that Maybin is an underclassman. Still, its a problem for both of them. At that particular position, I'd much rather that a player have a strong history of year-to-year production if I plan on drafting them high. A high percentage of one-hit wonders at DE end up being flops in the NFL.

Nor can I. DT is the major need that seems completely off the fans' radar this offseason. Assuming that McCargo gets canned, they have only three on the entire roster, two of which are better suited as backups. Then there's the atrocious Bills run defense, which allowed 1946 yards and 18 TDs...and the scary thing is, it was probably their best year since 2004 versus the run. Its a position that needs a starter and needs depth. The problem is that once you get past Raji, whom I view as the best defensive player in this draft, this is an awful group of DTs. If he's on the board at 11, I think they'd be crazy to pass on him.

As I've stated previously, I think that its a very good possibility. The Bills always manage to throw a curveball into the first few picks and while everyone complains about it when it happens, a year or two down the road, it ends up looking like a good pick. It won't happen at 11, but at 28, I can definitely see a situation where they draft a CB or a WR depending upon who else is available at that pick. They're in good shape right now at both positions, but Owens is a one-year rental and McGee will be 30 next year. Both will be significant needs moving forward and the Bills might just decide to get it over with now.

You may not want to hear it, but I think the one year wonder argument has some validity. Sometimes the best predictor of the future is to look to the past. I ripped that quote off of a scout regarding Robert Ayers, and it was used in a slightly different context, but its something to think about in this case, too. How many one-hit wonders at DE come into the NFL and ever have success? A few, but its rare. Add in the fact that he's undersized to his inexperience and lack of previous production and I think he carries considerable risk as an 11th overall pick. The talent is certainly there, don't get me wrong, but Manny Lawson, Michael Haynes, Erasmus James and Erik Flowers and a few others that never really did much were talented one-year wonders, too. That's not to say that Maybin definitely will follow the same path, but that he carries a high degree of risk at a position that's already one of the riskiest picks to make in round one.

Can't say I'd be too happy with that. With the exception of Orakpo, I don't think any of these DEs are worth the 11th pick and even with him, its a little bit of a stretch. Maybin is going to be a project, a fact made more painful by the fact that they'd be passing over Raji to get him. Unger would be a better choice at 42. My biggest fear with him is that he'll just be a utility lineman in the NFL, best suited as a 6th OL coming off the bench. Don't get me wrong, he's probably better than that, which is why I think he'd be a decent R2 pick, but I don't think its much of a stretch to think that's all he'll ever be, either.

Come on, now. Pettigrew didn't catch any TDs. He obviously sucks. Just like that Aikman guy who only threw 20 TD passes once in his NFL career. Dallas should have cut him.

It was Eric Moulds.

It'll be the Raiders. You know Al Davis wants to draft Darrius Heyward-Bey.

Oklahoma State is not a pass oriented team. They use a spread offense, but they run it an awful lot. In fact, they were ranked 8th in the country in rushing this past season versus 38th in passing. The lack of TD receptions for Pettigrew doesn't really concern me, either. He was not the first receiving target in that offense and additionally, he was playing with a high ankle sprain suffered early in the season.

That's fine, but if they do pass on Pettigrew, no bitching and complaining from you if/when their bargain TEs make a key mistake or three that cost the Bills a few games. That's what I don't get. Everyone whines about Royal and the other TEs they've had over the last several years, but no one wants to pay to upgrade.

Don't get me wrong, they could do worse than Cushing. I just don't know that he's so much better a prospect than the guys likely available at 28 or even 42 that you have to draft him at 11.

I'm not saying that anyone would buy their justification for it, merely that they'll have a reason beyond 'he was the best player on our board.' They can argue, probably correctly, that either position may be a problem for them in the near future. Whether they can sell that argument to the fans...I don't know.

Mock drafts...are better than nothing at this time of year. If not for the draft speculation, this board would be all but dead during this time of the offseason. At the very least, the mock drafts help spark player discussions.

I completely agree, but at this point, it can't be changed. He's gone and the Bills will almost certainly have a major need at the CB position within a couple of years.

That's nuts. Its also why I wouldn't rule it out entirely. The Bills almost always throw one curveball in the first few picks. I fully expect that 11th pick to go as we believe it will, but as I stated yesterday, I would not be shocked to see them select a CB or a WR at 28, depending on who they pick at 11 and how the rest of R1 goes. The reason? McGee will be 30 next year and Owens is a one-year rental. They could very well have a problem at both spots going into next season and as much as the draft is for filling immediate needs, its also for building a team's future. I'm not saying it will happen or its something I would do, but just something I would not be surprised by and something that I think they actually can justify.

I really don't see the appeal of drafting Cushing at 11. He's not going to have the benefit of playing in a linebacking corps so superior to the opposition at the pro level. That's not to say that he won't be a good player, but its going to be a big transition for him when the opposing team can actually afford to form their gameplan specifically around targeting him. That's hard to do for a team playing USC, when they have three potential 1st round picks at LB, plus a ton of talent everywhere else, too. And then there are the injury questions. Loadholt? Its a bit high for him, but he fits what the Bills seem to like at the position, which is a guy who can be a roadgrader in the running game. Its a decent pick.

Most of mine are similar to what you always see. I don't rank them, but rate them by round and by tier in the 1st 2 rounds. I only have five players in the top tier, which usually corresponds to being worthy of a top 10 pick. Even with those five, I'm stretching it a bit. Yikes. I do have a few surprises: 1) Andre Smith -- 3rd round 2) Robert Ayers -- 3rd round 3) Michael Johnson -- 3rd round 4) Brian Robiskie -- Late 1st round 5) Brian Cushing -- Early 2nd round 6) Mark Sanchez -- Early 2nd 7) Aaron Maybin -- Late 2nd Most of these guys will end up going higher than this, much higher in some cases. This is just where I think they should go. I think Sanchez will probably go 4th to Seattle and Andre Smith probably 6th. The Seahawks and Bengals would be braver than I if that happens.

LOL. Couldn't agree more. A quote I read a day or two ago about Ayers sums it up best. Sometimes, the best predictor of the future is to look to the past. How many DEs can anyone name that had similar sack totals to Ayers in college, yet posted 8-10 yearly in the pros. Few. Very, very few. This guy has never proven that he can get to the QB and even as an overall player, the most optimistic assessment says that he didn't start playing up to his potential until his senior year. It doesn't add up to more than a 2nd or maybe even a 3rd round pick, IMO. Its adds up to even less if I'm looking for a rush end, which the Bills are in the market for. If I want a run defending DE with questionable pass rush ability, I'll draft Tyson Jackson in R1, or better yet, wait a few rounds and draft someone like Michael Bennett.

I doubt he knows much more than you or I do. If memory serves, a couple of years ago, he was pushing for the Bills to skip Marshawn Lynch in R1 and draft Antonio Pittman in R2 instead. Pittman went in R4.

Meh. I can see them selecting Michael Johnson, but its not a pick I'd like at all. As for Sintim, he's a good player, but I don't know that he fits this defense very well. I'm not sure that he can handle the coverage responsibilities in this crappy cover 2, but some team playing a 3-4 will be very happy that they picked him.

It depends upon the choices at the other positions. I've never said that Pettigrew is my first choice at 11 (among the realistic choices, he's 3rd), but that he deserves strong consideration. As for getting a capable TE in any round, the Bills certainly haven't proven they can. Instead, they've just wasted a lot of draft picks trying to do so.

The last thing I would call Ayers is a 'safe pick'. When the college regular season ended in November, no one thought he'd be anything more than a 3rd rounder.

A pass rusher? Ayers? That sounds about right. These are the Bills, afterall.

Exactly. In fact, considering the number of picks they've blown at the TE position over the last decade plus, if Pettigrew can finally solve their problems at that position, he would be well worth it.

That's a little better, though not by much. Hope that left knee holds up if they trade up for him.