Kirby Jackson

Who though and at what price?

We disagree here. He is in rapid decline and CERTAINLY was outplayed by Tannehill last year and maybe even Jimmy G at times. They are heading in different directions. Brady is a mid level starter in 2020. That’s exactly what those other guys are. With that Patriots defense those guys could absolutely win as many games as Brady would!! That’s why the Patriots are okay letting him leave. BB can be ruthless but if he thought that Brady was the best option they’d meet his number.

I’m not sure how you’re going to do better than another 900 yard receiver and a guy at 22? The guys just aren’t there. To do better you’ll have to either trade up for one of the top 3 or for a vet.

At this point Brady is no better than those guys IMO and trending in opposite directions. The Patriots won with defense over the last 2 years not Brady. I think you’re remembering Brady at his best. 2019: Brady - 60.9% completion, 253.6 ypg, 24 TDs, 8 INTs, 6.8 YPA, 88 rating, 52.5 QBR Jimmy G - 69.1% completion, 248.6 ypg, 27 TD, 13 INTs, 9.3 ypa, 102 rating, 60.2 QBR Tannehill (extrapolated over 16 games) - 70.3% completion, 228.5 ypg, 32 TDs, 8 INTs, 9.6 YPA, 117.5 rating, 65.4 QBR Teddy (extrapolated over 16 games) - 67.9% completion, 153.8 YPG, 28 TDs, 6 INTs, 7.5 YPA, 99.1 rating, 45 QBR There isn’t a big difference at this point.

Well if he goes to SF that will almost certainly mean Teddy, Tannehill or Jimmy G in New England.

Honestly, even some people here get nostalgic (or nightmares) thinking about him staying in NE. I don’t think that’s the worst thing for us. He’s an average QB at this point that’s fairly easy to defend because he can’t get the ball outside the numbers anymore. Brady is still incredibly cerebral and crafty. However, he’s like Henry Rowengartner when he loses his fastball in “Rookie of the Year.” He has to be creative to make plays. He’s not just going to make certain throws because of his ability anymore.

Addison may very well be “plan b.” They’ll have to draft an edge early still IMO because of age if it is Addison. Sanders makes some sense too (especially if we draft a guy early). With that being said I could do a WR room of: Brown Sanders Beasley Jefferson 2 of Duke/Foster/McKenzie Roberts Edge: Addison Hughes Murphy Anae Johnson Something like this makes sense

I think that the same can be said about drop offs in position groups. As an example there is a chasm between Chase Young and the next best edge player. There’s a gap between Ruggs/Jeudy/Lamb and the next guy. There’s a big gap between Okudah and the guy that goes next. The Bills always seem to chase the “last guy in a tier” like they did last year with Ford and Knox. That’s why they traded up in both cases. The identified players before the drop off and went to get them. Keep this in mind in round 2 IMO. Bradlee Anae is a guy I have my eye on.

Kind of what I was getting at earlier: He is just not the same player that he was 5 years ago (or even close).

I was just going to say the same thing on Clowney. Don’t forget Gaine wanted to pay him and O’Brien didn’t. I think that the Bills make AT LEAST 1 (maybe 2) splash moves in FA or via trade. As of right now, Clowney would be at or near the top of the “likelihood list” IMO. In fact, they probably already have a real sense for the number from Gaine’s conversations when he was in Houston.

...and just like that Sherlock advocates for another white skill player

I more interested in a potential Mario Williams for John Skelton deal

Is it weird that I really don’t care where Brady ends up? He looks like he’s about to fall off a cliff to me. If this were 5 years ago I’d be all over this. I’m completely indifferent at this point. He’s a pretty good starting QB now IMO. The days of shredding the Bills and the league are over. He’s still good enough to win on a good team (SF) but he’s not carrying anybody again.

Milano and Dawkins are free agents after the upcoming season (as is Poyer). The only guy that they have a 5th year option available on is Tre.

100% agree I think as these guys come off the board, Ngakoue, Judon, etc.. it makes Shaq more expensive. I think that the Bills definitely add an edge guy in FA. It may be Shaq, Addison, a trade, but they won’t punt on that until the draft.

I don’t think that’s fair. If I remember correctly the Chargers were trying to do something with his bonus pay that no other team was doing. Maybe it was even offset language. I don’t remember. That was a them problem and not a Bosa problem. Now he’s doing what every player in his situation does, waiting for a long term deal. That’s standard for players of his caliber that don’t have guaranteed money commensurate with their production. We see that every year. 2 totally different situations that are easily justified.

Clowney is my top option. I like Addison as well but he’s more of a short-term option. I’m not as much on Ngakoue as much as some. It feels like the price tag doesn’t match the player but that may just be me. I’m not big on the 2 edge options in round 1 either. I’d rather Anae later. Now if a trade for Von Miller or someone like that were an option...

See I kind of feel the opposite. He feels like the exact type of guy that they’d seek out even though they didn’t select him. He’s a smart player. He’s versatile. He’s pretty healthy. Shaq plays with an edge. He’s also improved every year under them.

Works for me

I’m not sure that it will be with the way that these guys have come off the board In FA. This draft is not good at Edge either (excluding Chase Young). Shaq’s value may get pushed up because of those factors. It could have been kicking the can down the road but if you told the Bills, right now, you could have Shaq this year for $10M I think they’d jump at it. The NBA had a MASSIVE spike prior though that slowed (some). There really haven’t been any teams crippled by it. The NFL is a different animal anyways. That TV contract will grow by a lot in 2021. You also need to account for the 2 extra playoff games and another week of regular season games (potentially). It’s apples and oranges in a lot of ways. Someone brought up the NHL earlier too. The revenue model differences between the NFL and NHL is like apples and fire trucks. They are nothing alike because there’s so little TV money in the NHL.

I agree that there’s risk but there is risk with the guys that I mentioned. Clark and Hill have been horrible human beings and if they were to repeat past behaviors would be suspended. Beckham doesn’t have that hanging over his head. The Bills had a deal for Antonio Brown last year. He’s worse on the field and off the field than Beckham!! He has (to a lesser degree) the domestic issues of Hill and Clark. He also has been a HORRIBLE teammate. In addition to yelling for the ball, he ripped his QB, organization, young receiver, the league, etc... I know it to be true that the Bills had an agreement in place for him. He’s a bad guy. Beane knows that he needs ELITE playmakers not more playmakers. Personally, I’d give up 22 for Beckham in a second, especially if the top 3 receivers are gone (and I think a 2nd would get it done). While I think guys like Jefferson are going to be really good pros, I already know Beckham is. He’s a guy that they have to game plan against. He’d be the only guy besides Josh on the roster like that. With the Bills cap situation I have no issue with paying stars. OBJ is that. In terms of fracturing a locker room the Bills leadership is strong. FWIW, Beckham’s teammates have always liked him. He just demands the ball. In a good locker room (which he has yet to see) he may actually be an even better player.

No but you’d have raised your floor at a bargain price. You would have had less of a need at edge and you’d have had Shaq for less than he got. You could have still chased other options as well but wouldn’t have the hole that currently exists.

Maybe you’re right and the lack of edge talent in the draft plays into that as well. My question then is “IF the market determines he’s a $13M a year guy, why shouldn’t the Bills be the team to pay that?” They have a need at the position. They have the 3rd most cap space in the league. They have an avenue to cap savings at the position by releasing Murphy if they want. They know Shaq. He’s played well in the system. I just don’t understand why anyone thinks he shouldn’t be in the mix? The Bills should absolutely be in on him. That was an unpopular opinion on here at the time but some of us thought that was the play. It looks like a bargain now.

As good as CMC is, you aren’t paying that for a running back. No one is giving that!! The position value isn’t there. You could maybe get Kamara for a 2nd. You aren’t paying 2 1sts. The ONLY skill player that may get 2 1sts at this point is Michael Thomas. WR have way more value and I’m still not sure that price would be paid.