Bleeding Bills Blue

It's a pick play (not necessarily illegal) - which is the perfect call in a 0 blitz scenario. You left your linebacker in man coverage with cook, no safety help, and he was caught in the wash. Nobody ran him over, and the WRs looked at the QB. You basically left it to the refs to bail you out of a poor call coming out of a timeout. Allen said after the game, we called timeout and i said "they're going 0 blitz". It looked to me like it was thrown to the outside shoulder and MVS looked inside after ball was in the air. Right read since it looked like he was behind the defender in a cover 3, but inside shoulder invites another player to the party.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202409120mia.htm#all_vis_snap_counts

We only ran 45 plays and gained about 5.5 Yards per play. Thats just outside the top 10 for the league last year in a per play average. The thing i liked is how much of what they did was just taking what they gave. Play 2 high off coverage? Ball is out to kincaid immediately for what felt like 8 yards per clip. They had no pass rush without a blitz, and they don't have the players capable of locking buffalo up in man. Buffalo's physicality just overwhelmed their defense. Consider this - 59 yards in the 2nd half for the bills offense, they passed 6x for 31 yards and just ran right into 8/9 man boxes. Miami ran 73 plays and gained 4.8 yards per play, which would've ranked 28th. Factor in losing turnover battle by 3, 1/5 on 4th down, and penalties - they were just... an absolute mess on offense. They usually play far better at home because they can use jet motion to manipulate the defense more effectively, and they definitely stressed buffalo horizontally, but they couldn't keep the edge in the 2nd half. You also invite more offensive penalties due to formation issues and just generally your offensive line has to get outside and its a lot easier to get caught. After the pick 6 i knew it was going to be the same few plays in different formations. The ability to open it up is there, but they needed to make it two scores before I consider changing much of what I'm doing.

I don't know that its more or less likely to occur. From my understanding it has to be a hard hit, at a specific time of a heartbeat that causes the heart to stop beating.

Just a lack of physical mean dudes on both sides of the ball.

He's a streaky type of player, he definitely can wreck a game. I just think Wilkins was more of the heartbeat along that defensive line and they kept chubb and phillips.

The dolphins are a soft team. And they played soft.

Literally all their physical players who have buffalo problems. Howard was probably washed but he also made plays against buffalo. Jackson's an athletic lineman but he ain't physical. They extended him.

I think its the sheer volume of players that makes it challenging to do it that way.

Even if its a... start someone else while you uhh deal with that?

I don't know about proved the doubters wrong, but he played like 30 snaps and made a few plays. He pressured at times in both half's, didn't have an amazing game where he looked unblockable though either.

I'll take some Hines Ward type of player.

Exactly. They also had the ball twice and had only run 13 total plays at that point. Drive 1 they ran 2 runs and 2 passes and were on the cardinals 19 yard line when they turned it over. 2nd drive they were gashing in the run game, and actually scored a TD that was wiped out by penalty. There were 3 pass plays called on the drive including one on first down that was wiped out by a defensive PI on coleman.

Special teams: I don't think the KR was intended to be short of the end zone. I also think its a new kickoff style that needs to be adjusted for situations where the wind is affecting what you want to be able to do. The short knuckle type kick seems to be something buffalo will need to work on, as well as just kickoff coverage in general. Buffalo did have a really nice return as well (didn't cash it in), so it can't be all doom and gloom on special teams. Bass made all his kicks as well. Defense: We went in spying murray - and he was evading those spies on scrambles. He also had time to get the ball out, and larger windows to throw as the linebackers were trying to not give him the middle of the field in a scramble. In the 2nd half they brought more pressure from the interior. Force him to get the ball out quicker, or at least muddy it up so he can't escape. Considering they had some sacks and how much less success murray had, it was a nice adjustment. If he was evading, most of the time it was backwards so you force the play to one side of the field and its harder for him to hurt you. I think he still had one or two nice 2nd half scrambles, but he's probably their most elusive playmaker on offense. Arizona had 80 yards in the 2nd half, 1 turnover, 2 3 and outs, and scored 3 points. Offense: Predictable, probably somewhat boring, but only 1 turnover. Buffalo had greater time of possession in a game where they barely had the ball in the 1st half, so the 2nd half game plan was deliberate to getting control of the clock and game flow. Not their best 3rd down game, but 2 of the failed 3rd downs led to short 4th down conversions. Would have been interested to see more from samuel, but I'm not sure he's 100% quite yet. I think more of the motion with him can really create some additional gaps for the backs in the run game, while also utilizing some of his speed to get around the edge in certain situations.

Gonna go with taron johnson. I think they're going to let you throw to the flats - Mcbride and Conner - and johnson's going to be key in limiting their YAC. Offense, I'm going to go with Samuel giving them fits underneath. I think budda ends up over kincaid a lot in this one.

Offensive linemen tend to get in shape during camp as offseason recovery is big for them - so I'm hoping his conditioning is improved. Once you're around your peers, and everyone's lifting and training hard it gets a bit easier. It's a negotiating tactic. The agent basically sets a deadline, and after that it's in Beane's court - either tag him or he walks.

I think Doyle's still hanging around rehabbing something. End of the day - Brown played tight end in 8-man football in highschool, then missed his senior year in FCS due to covid moving that season to the spring. He was raw when he came here and has still started 44 games in 3 seasons including all 17 last year.

1 - Likely no. The contract is an extension beginning in 2025. 2 - I don't love it, but i see why they did it. I think he still gets more on open market as there are a number of teams with cap space and needs on the line.

Better run blockers often make for better blockers in a short passing attack that buffalo is looking to implement.

On a 4 year deal, you have bonus money spread out over at least 4 seasons, plus some base salary guarantees likely. I'd guess he couldn't be traded until 2027 at the earliest without a large cap charge. Van Demark (ERFA) and Grable being under contract for at least 2 seasons is fantastic for depth. Gives Grable time to develop and Van Demark as the primary swing tackle. I think the player most likely moved/cut would be McGovern. It only would make sense if VPG is ready obviously. McGovern wouldn't net a ton of savings in 2025, but it moves the void money (4.8M) up to to 2025 and reduces his overall cap charge to 7.7M. He might also be a trade target in the offseason as his traded salary is only 5.35M for the year (plus a 1M roster bonus), which an acquiring team can reduce with a void year or extension.

Very true. I feel like the dorsey offense and the frazier defense were entirely too predictable. The discipline and communication on defense made life miserable for a lot of teams, but they'd be exposed by better QBs/coaching/WRs. As for the offense under dorsey, it was somehow both too simple (felt like we didn't attack with many route concepts, and the red zone was just 5 wide, let allen do allen stuff) and too complicated? The alerts, checks, and leverage calls for the WRs have you constantly thinking as a player. The other aspect was how easy it was to manipulate those same checks to get buffalo to throw short, or force the read into a hole shot, or force the option route to the safety.

Minnesota.

Don't forget Chubb! Phillips needs an extension. Holland might be their best player on defense and also needs an extension. They also let their best lineman leave in free agency. Hill will be 31 in 2025- and he already has a cap hit of almost 20M in 2027 when his contract ends - and a 55M cap hit in 2026 that all but guarantees he'll be released in 2026 (a 5M roster bonus triggers on the 3rd league day so they have to make the decision pretty early). His prorated 2026 bonus (9.9M), the restructure (6.2M), the void years (19M), the option (3.1M) = 38.2M cap hit for miami in 2026 for him to not play there. If they restructure him in 2026 to reduce the 55 cap hit (when he is 32 years old), you have to add years, and it does nothing with the void money but kick it down the road. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/19119/tyreek-hill

Between Brown coming back, and JuJu getting re-acclimated, he's also likely to see fewer snap counts. He had 34 in this game for 63% of snaps, just ahead of Noah Gray. He's likely the biggest minus on the roster as a blocker so that will limit his ability to be on the field.

They ran a number of RPOs. Linebackers are put in conflict, and mahomes was slinging them in there last night.