mjt328

Exactly. The Bills aren't the same stratosphere as the Brady/Belichick Patriots or Mahomes/Reid Chiefs. In the biggest moments of games, Brady/Mahomes usually got 95% of the credit for being clutch. But upon replay, you will see the O-Line also stepped up and kept a clean pocket on those plays. You will see the receivers found a way to get open on those plays. You will see the defense on the other side do something to help make a stop. In the biggest moments of games, Josh Allen is usually forced to run around immediately and get away from pressure... desperately trying to find anyone on the field open. When he does make that big play, it's almost a given the defense will fall apart going the other direction. Think about our last 3 losses to the Chiefs in the playoffs. Scrambling from tons of pressure, only for Dalton Kincaid to drop it. Dion Dawkins unable to keep the rush from knocking his pass off target. Then Tyler Bass missing the field goal. And of course the defense on 13 seconds. Fans generally give Allen a pass for his mistakes, because he shouldn't need to play near-perfect every game in order for us to win.

If the Bills had won last night, they would be 3.5 games ahead in the AFC East... and 2 games ahead of pretty much everybody else in the AFC. By the first week of October. With a very easy schedule the rest of the way. The NFL benefits by drama and important matchups. They don't just heavily promote the teams people love, but also ones that people hate and badly want to lose (Cowboys, Patriots, Chiefs). That's what makes people watch. Not one team running away with it before kids have even picked out their Halloween costumes. I've never claimed the NFL is totally scripted. But you can see lots of evidence that refs are used to help nudge things in a particular direction. And it usually doesn't take a lot. Bad calls don't make people stop watching (because we are all addicts), and in many cases they get us talking more after the game is over.

As I stated in another thread, Sean McDermott's defensive scheme is outdated. The NFL is constantly evolving and changing. When McDermott first started putting this thing together, the big trend was attacking downfield with big passing plays. His system was built for stopping that. Not to mention, he had a fantastic secondary with prime Tre White, Taron Johnson, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde to execute it. Now nobody is finding success downfield (even Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes), and offenses are shifting into bigger O-Lines and power running games. Teams with small D-Lines and Linebackers, playing mostly Nickel are getting absolutely steamrolled. You will notice that very few defenses can stay good/elite for more than a 3-4 years. That's because it's hard to keep 11 guys together on that side of the ball with age and free agency. It's also hard for coordinators to adapt to the changing landscape around them. Most have a system or scheme they are comfortable with, and aren't good at changing. I honestly like what McDermott brings to the table as a leader and head coach. But his defensive system has run it's course. For the last two seasons, they have relied almost completely on turnovers. Last night was probably their best half of football since last December, and they couldn't sustain it for 4 quarters. Once the Patriots figured things out, they once again couldn't stop a nosebleed. We need a new perspective on that side of the ball. Scheme, Play-calling and Personnel.

The Pegulas have made it clear that both Beane/McDermott are equals. Neither is the boss of the other. It never works out when a GM drafts players that don't fit the system. The coaching staff won't use or develop them properly. I truly believe that's the #2 reason that Doug Whaley failed as a GM (with the #1 reason being not finding a QB). He had a good eye for talent, but worked poorly with the coaches. I also think that's one of the reasons Kaiir Elam totally busted. His skillset never fit our defense, so he got buried on the depth chart and then spent years trying to develop into a sound zone corner. If our coaching staff is requesting a particular kind of D-Lineman, Linebacker, Cornerback, Etc.... then Beane would be foolish to go against their wishes, even if he believes a different kind of player would be better. The real problem is that the NFL trends change and evolve over time. When McDermott first came to town, more teams were attacking downfield with the passing game. His system was built to stop that. But now offenses have gradually started getting bigger and better at running the ball. Our small front 7 and heavy nickel stuff is outdated. Not to mention the general philosophy of bend/don't break, force offenses into long drives, etc. has proven to be ineffective against playoff level QBs. So that side of the ball is generally dead in the water.

I like Sean McDermott's overall philosophy as a head coach, and the way he runs the locker room. Players talk all the time about how superior the culture is in Buffalo versus other teams. That's the main reason I'm reluctant to scream for a change. But I've also come to the conclusion that we will NEVER take the next step, until McDermott is willing to totally concede control of the Defense to an elite coordinator. That means scheme, personnel and playcalling. His system and style has completely run it's course. We have seen the same problems persist for 5-6 years in a row now. - Lack of QB pressure in key moments - Poor tackling - Undersized front getting steamrolled by bigger O-Lines - Key injuries, also due to undersized players - Cornerbacks playing too soft in coverage At what point do we realize that Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard are small for linebackers, and thus will always have problems with injuries? At what point do we realize the same thing with Taron Johnson, since we are asking him to basically play like a third linebacker half the time? At what point do we realize that a 4-man pass rush needs elite pass rushers, and not just a constant rotation to succeed? At what point do we realize that good QBs can pick apart soft zone coverage, and we need to draft elite guys who can go man/man against top WRs?

I'd like to say this was just an uncharacteristic game by a really good team. And that's how a lot of fans are going to try and frame it. But in reality, the Bills have a ton of glaring holes and their performance has gotten progressively worse as the season has gone along. They peaked in the 4th Quarter of Week 1, against what is quickly proving to be one of the worst defenses in the entire NFL (Ravens) while they were playing mostly soft prevent. Riding the high of that miracle comeback, they also looked pretty good in the first half against possibly the worst overall teams in the NFL (Jets), before putting in their backups and coasting the final two quarters. Everything has been rolling downhill from that point. Miami looked awful before playing us, and has been awful since almost pulling the upset. It was hard to imagine us playing worse than we did against the Saints last week. But then we had this abomination against the Patriots. Total slop fest all night on offense. The defense was strong in the first half, then got figured out by the other coaching staff and couldn't stop a thing the rest of the night. I'm sure all week we will hear how the Bills weren't going to be undefeated all season, so this isn't a big deal in the long-run. Maybe it's even a blessing, because it will serve as a wake up call. Except every single year we watch them blow games just like this against vastly inferior opponents... leading to us eventually getting the #2 or #3 seed, and traveling to Arrowhead in the playoffs. Don't look now, but the Chiefs now control their destiny in the AFC race. They have been playing better than us over the last 2-3 games, and against a much more difficult schedule.

The Bills are going to be a different team on offense every single week, depending on the opponent and game plan. Even if they didn't do it on Sunday against the Saints, I think Joe Brady really likes the ability to run 3-Tight End sets.

Because yardage stats are often misleading, and don't tell the whole story. The teams we have played so far are mostly run-first teams (Baltimore, New York, New Orleans), and/or have some of the worst starting QBs in the entire league (New York, New Orleans). Plus, they are absolutely gashing us on the run... so there hasn't been much reason to attack us that way. Again... most teams are going to attack where a team is the weakest. When a team can't tackle, they are going to test you with the rushing attack and short passes that rely on YAC. Plus (as I said previously), we have played against Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa and Spencer Rattler -- not exactly guys known for aggressively attacking defenses downfield. Lamar Jackson spent 85% of the game handing off and playing with a big lead. When the opposing QB drops back to pass, he's got a clean pocket and plenty of time (over 2 seconds) to throw. Or the D-Line over-pursues, gives up contain and allows them to take off running. And the secondary isn't doing a good job of defending passes once it's been released. From what I've seen, teams haven't had much trouble throwing when they need to do it, regardless of what the stats say. For example... It won't count in the stat book, but the Saints should have taken the lead yesterday with 9 minutes left. On 3rd-13, we got zero pass rush and Brandin Cooks beat his man. Rattler just made a poor pass. That kind of play counts as a positive stop for our pass defense, when it was really just a bad job by the quarterback. My worry is that our schedule doesn't really give the defense much of a real test, and stats are going to be skewed most of the season. Our next three opponents are Drake Maye, Michael Penix and Bryce Young. Very good chance our passing rankings will be pretty good by the end of the year. And then we head into the postseason to face Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson.

My evaluation after a quarter of the season... The offense is scoring 33.3 ppg (#2 in the NFL), has put up 30+ in every game, and only has one turnover. Yet it somehow feels like they are still leaving plenty of meat on the bone. Joe Brady's calling has been pretty conservative, outside of the 4th Quarter of the Ravens game. We basically ran out the second half with backups against the Jets. There have been stretches of sloppy play with drops and penalties killing drives. It's crazy to think that Josh Allen has quite possibly been the best QB in the NFL so far, and it almost seems like he's holding back. James Cook has quite possibly been the best RB in the NFL, and there have been a half-dozen shoestring tackles where he's almost broken long touchdown runs. If this group can start hitting on all cylinders, no scoring record is safe. The defense has been the complete opposite. They have been awful in all phases of the game, and if not for a couple important game-saving turnovers (Derrick Henry fumble, Terrell Bernard pick, Cole Bishop one-handed INT), things could somehow be much worse. Some want to blame it on injuries or rookies, but even our dependable veterans are looking like garbage. Our number-one focus in the offseason was upgrading the D-Line, and it's been a massive disappointment in every way. Every QB has 3-4 seconds to throw. Joey Bosa is the only one getting the occasional pressure, and he offsets it by constantly losing outside contain and letting up a bigger play. Against the run, they are getting blown off the ball and filling the wrong gaps. Tackling has been about the worst I've ever witnessed on a Bills team, and that's really saying something. Slow to the ball. Getting run over and pushed backwards. Whiffing and getting juked in the open field. Falling off ballcarriers. It almost looks like a team tired of injuries and trying to preserve itself for the postseason. Coverage has also been bad. The secondary seems confused before the snap. They are giving too much space to receivers off the line, and then leaving guys wide open. The times they have been in position, they can't knock the ball away. Even Christian Benford looks lost out there. Bottom line, we are probably looking at the best Offense during the Josh Allen-era... combined with the worst Defense during the Josh Allen-era. Yes, that has resulted in a 4-0 record so far. But much of that is due to the cupcake schedule we were fortunate to pull. We have all seen other teams roll through the regular season with 14 or 15 wins (see Chiefs/Vikings last year), knowing they really weren't as good as the standing showed. I don't want to be that team. The Bills staff needs to be working overtime to figure out what is wrong with this defense. Is it the personnel? Is it the scheme? Is it the coaching staff? We still have some time before the trade deadline to make a move. We could still pull a Ken Dorsey on Bobby Babich. What we can't do is be overconfident because of the record and then ignore the glaring flaws staring us in the face.

Not sure you're missing anything. Neither guy was anything special on their previous teams. People also seem to be very optimistic that Ed Oliver will suddenly become a consistent force in his 7th season, despite always being the type of player to be awesome for one game and then disappear for multiple weeks... And that Matt Milano will return and stay healthy for the first time since 2022... And that Maxwell Hairston will become an impact player as a rookie, even though he missed most of training camp/preseason and hasn't played a single snap yet... Personally, I'm hoping we can figure out why Greg Rousseau, Terrell Bernard, Taron Johnson, Christian Benford and Taylor Rapp have all massively regressed over the first month of the season.

One-quarter into the season, this is the worst Defense the Bills have fielded since Josh Allen's breakout year. So much is going wrong, it's almost impossible to know where to point the finger. Sean McDermott? Bobby Babich? The secondary? The pass rush? The pass rush gets no consistent pressure, despite it being the #1 priority in the offseason. Every QB has at least 3-4 seconds to scan the field. Groot has been completely invisible since signing his big contract. For every great play Joey Bosa has made, he's also had twice as many times losing outside contain and allowing an even bigger play. This may be the worst tackling unit in football. Half the time our guys completely whiff. When they do actually make contact, they immediately fall off or get dragged for an additional 3-4 yards. If the problem is us being undersized, then why are we also slow to get into position? The secondary is an absolute joke. They give every receiver 7-8 yards of space, and still leave guys wide open. Nobody can make a play to knock the ball away, including Christian Benford. I would like to believe that things will change when guys get healthy. But this defense is never fully healthy. One guy comes back, another two go down. Are we really counting on Matt Milano? And a rookie cornerback? And Ed Oliver, who is notoriously huge in one game and then disappears for the next 3-4?

He's quite possibly been the best RB in the NFL for the first month of the season. Second in rushing yards. First in rushing touchdowns. And he's probably had 4-5 shoestring tackles that prevented him from hitting another long touchdown run. I'll quickly admit my take on James Cook was wrong this offseason. I thought he peaked last year, and could be replaced without much drop-off in our team's offensive production. But he really took his game up a notch this year, going from a mostly homerun threat to one of the league's best 3-Down backs.

Probably not going to be many "real tests" for the Bills this year. Looking at the schedule, we only face three legitimate playoff teams the rest of the season. Chiefs, Bucs, Eagles. I would have put the Bengals there until they lost Joe Burrow for basically the season. A couple teams are decent enough to possibly push for an upset. Texans, Steelers. Divisional games can be tough sometimes, so there's that. My biggest worry about the Bills this year is they FINALLY get the #1 seed, but then march into the playoffs overconfident without being pushed enough during the year. My second biggest worry is that we get the Bye and then still have to play the Chiefs or Ravens in the Divisional Round.

Been back and forth on this one. Barring an injury to #17, the Bills are going to have the AFC East wrapped up by Thanksgiving. So everything we root for should be about getting the #1 Seed, and the most advantageous playoff matchups. Also looking at the schedule, it's really hard for me to see the Bills losing more than 3-4 games at the absolute max. And even that would require a few significant upsets. The Ravens are almost certainly the better team, and losing would put them a whopping 3.5 games back (only 4 games into the season). But it also gives the reeling Chiefs a boost of confidence. If they end up winning this game AND then beating us in Week 8, that would put them right back into the mix.. along with a crucial tie-breaker for the #1 seed. On the other hand, if the Chiefs get too far behind in the AFC West... they may be looking at a Wild Card slot behind the Chargers. Which means we could easily be looking at getting the bye, and then still facing them in the Divisional Round. Although I still believe we are the superior team to the Chiefs (especially at home), there is a psychological hurdle that we can't seem to get over.

Lamar Jackson is an incredible player and seems like a great guy off the field too. He's on pace to be a 1st ballot Hall of Famer, just like Josh Allen. Ravens fans are just a bizarre group though, to the point it makes it really hard to root for them. I get that ever fanbase is different. Bills fans are known around the league as rowdy drunks, who do crazy stuff like jump through tables. But they are also loyal and charitable - to the point of raising thousands of dollars for organizations in other cities (such as Andy Dalton). Ravens fans are... "Lamar Jackson is the best quarterback to ever play, is the only person to deserve the MVP every single season, every other QB in the NFL is terrible. I will ignore any stat that says otherwise. And if you don't agree, you are racist and don't know football."

The main job of a Defensive Coordinator is matching the pass rush to the coverage, and then adjusting it to stop what the Offense is doing. If the QB is getting rid of the ball very quickly, then a Defense must adjust. Have the corners play more press-man coverage. Have the D-Line focus more on batting and tipping passes. Maybe even try anticipating and jumping routes.

I think most of the frustration comes from the constant struggles to get a stop on 3rd Down. The Bills defense had an OK game on paper. But there were a half-dozen times when they had a chance to put the nail in the coffin, but just couldn't make a play to kill the drive. I'm not someone who studies the All-22 Coaches Film or advanced metrics websites. I rely on my own eyes and experience of watching the NFL for 35+ years. My personal unscientific definition of "pressure" is by counting 1-2, and whether or not the D-Line is able to either reach the QB or force him off his spot. Even though Tua was getting the ball out quick most of the game, there were plenty of 3rd Downs where he was able to hold the ball longer than 2 seconds. That's not good enough from the pass rush. The Bills seem to get nice individual performances here and there, but not consistently strong play from the unit as a whole. Joey Bosa has looked really good so far. But Groot, AJ Epenesa and the other edge rushers have been totally invisible. Ed Oliver was amazing Week 1. But he's been hurt the last two games, and we haven't gotten much from anyone else.

The Bills are capable of winning a Super Bowl with this roster. Just like they have been each of the last 4-5 seasons. So by definition, this defense is championship caliber. But yes, I agree it seems to have the exact same problems and doesn't seem to have improved even the slightest from last year. Still too inconsistent at stopping the run. Too many missed tackles. Third downs are always a disaster, either because of a lack of pressure or the secondary giving way too much space off the line of scrimmage. Lots of fans like to blame Brandon Beane for the roster. But when you are constantly drafting/signing different players every year, and the results are exactly the same over and over... that points more towards the coaching staff.

Hard to complain when your team is undefeated and scoring 30+ in every game (so far). But the passing game is definitely something to keep an eye on. In the NFL, it's really easy to ignore the small problems when your playing against inferior teams and still finding ways to win games. It's not until you play a better opponent and suddenly those small problems become a major issue. It almost seems like they came out of nowhere. But in reality, there were warning signs all along the way. The Bills offense has looked extremely timid and conservative in the first three games. Everything is dink/dunk and running game. The question is whether that's been mostly by design? Or because our WRs are really struggling to get open downfield? Or maybe a mix? I never thought I would see Josh Allen throwing short of the marker on 3rd Down. But he's already done it more than once already this season, leading to drive stalls and punts. We've also had a couple handoffs on 3rd and medium. I don't think we've tried taking even one downfield shot yet. We looked past it against the Ravens, because the offense opened up way more in the second-half and they made the big come-back. We looked past it against the Jets, because it was a blow-out and they didn't need to do anything else. But then last night, our offense was continually unable to put the nail in the coffin. And if not for the roughing penalty, they were in the process of punting the ball back to the Dolphins... tied in the middle of the 4th Quarter.

The Chiefs offense has been on a serious regression for almost 3 years now. From 2020-2022, they averaged 29.6, 28.2 and 29.2 points per game. Among the very tops in the league. From 2023-2024, they averaged 21.8 and 22.6 points per game. Around middle of the pack. And so far this year, they are at 19.0 after two games. Ranked 24th in the NFL. So we aren't talking about a "slump" they are in on that side of the ball. We are looking at 2+ year sample size of them being an average to below-average offense. Many football fans have been slow to recognize it, because of that team's reputation as a scoring powerhouse. They have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, so they must be great. And they keep winning games and even going to Super Bowls. But it's really the defense that has been carrying them for a while now. When the Chiefs were at their peak, defenses had to keep Tyreek Hill from killing them on the deep ball. The more defenders played back, the more space it would give for Travis Kelce to beat them underneath. After trading Hill in 2022, the Chiefs adjusted to a quicker and more efficient short passing attack. It worked extremely well for about one season. Then opponents started catching onto the fact they weren't really a deep threat team anymore. Kelce has also started slowing down and showing his age. Maybe they will get a spark when Rashee Rice comes back. But I wouldn't expect them to suddenly go back to being a Top 5 offense. This team is going to live and die on the defensive side of the ball, just like they have for the past few seasons. Last season, the Chiefs also got very lucky in several games. They were a toenail away from losing the the Ravens. A bad PI call away from losing to the Bengals. A blocked FG away from losing to the Broncos. A bad snap away from losing to the Raiders. Not to mention several other one-score games that could have shifted on a play or two. The record said 15-2, but it very easily could have been 10-6. At 0-2, the Chiefs still have very difficult games against the league's elite: Ravens, Lions and Bills. They still have another matchup with the Chargers. The Commanders, Texans, Broncos (x2) were playoff teams last season. The Colts started 2-0 and look pretty good. The Raiders (x2) usually give them a tough matchup. It's hard to count them out, but it's definitely not going to be an easy road.

Two of our D-Line free agent upgrades (Larry Ogunjobi and Michael Hoecht) were suspended, and couldn't help. One of our D-Line free agent upgrades (Joey Bosa) lost contain on Jackson a few times, but settled in later. Two of our D-Line draft picks (TJ Sanders, Deone Walker) were playing in their very first game. The third (Landon Jackson) was inactive. Our middle linebacker (Terrell Bernard), top cornerback (Christian Benford) and two safeties (Taylor Rapp, Cole Bishop) were injured a good chunk of training camp/preseason, and haven't gotten a chance to play together at all. Which leads to a lack of communication and knowing where each other will be on plays. Plus we had to throw a 6th Round rookie into one of the starting slots at cornerback, so I'm sure the coaching staff was focused on protecting him and making sure he wasn't put into really bad positions. Anyone who was expecting a huge improvement from the Defense in Week 1 probably hasn't been paying attention. This unit looks like one that will gradually improve as the season goes along, and hopefully peaks closer to playoff time.

Derrick Henry is undoubtedly a better player than James Cook. But the difference is not an infinite chasm the Bills fall behind in. Let's not forget that Cook has made the Pro Bowl the last 2 years, and has the ability to go the distance on any play from scrimmage. He did just that on Sunday night. Defenses have to stack the box against Henry. But it's not like they can just ignore Cook. Football is not just about individual players standing out. It's about how ALL the pieces work together as a whole. The Bills don't get a lot of individual accolades, but they play together as a TEAM better than almost anyone in the NFL. And their depth is exceptional when injuries hit. So people can say all they want that we don't match-up with the Ravens in terms of talent. But last year we scored 30.9 points per game, and they scored 30.5. Meanwhile, we gave up 21.6 and they gave up 21.2 ppg. It's not just a two-game fluke.

I understand the need for Bills/Ravens fans to argue over who is better. But at the end of the day, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are both incredible players who will almost certainly be 1st-ballot Hall of Famers in the future. Since coming into the league, they have similar records and similar team success. They have similar statistics and numbers. Jackson has two MVPs and Allen one. But both were close runners-up the years they didn't win. And both are struggling at the same thing in dethroning the Chiefs to win a ring. Jackson is faster and more elusive. Allen is bigger and more powerful. The play Jackson made Sunday night to escape the sack was only something he can do. But I've also seen Allen stiff-arm and truck over defenders for extra yardage, which is something only he can do. Both put defenses in impossible situations of defending both run/pass. Both can extend plays for almost infinite amounts of time. To me, there is one reason that Allen gets the edge. When defenses find a way to put the Ravens into situations where they absolutely must pass to win (which is very rare), Jackson's effectiveness does drop. In other words, Jackson can obviously pick apart a defense with his arm... but he usually needs the threat of his legs in order to consistently do that 30-40 times per game. Allen has proven more times that he can be dangerous from the pocket, even when teams aren't worried about his legs.

I recently heard someone say that Jackson is a sports car, and Allen is a tank. Jackson is setting all the QB rushing records when it comes to yardage. Allen is setting all the QB rushing records when it comes to touchdowns. Side note: I realize that Jalen Hurts is also rocketing up the TD list, but the vast majority of his are coming from tush-push sneaks.

The problem is not a talent disparity, but a scheme disparity. Buffalo's defense was constructed to be small and fast, so they are naturally going to struggle against big and powerful run games. It's actually funny when you think about it. This team was constructed with beating the Chiefs in mind. Yet we can't get past them in the playoffs to save our lives. The Ravens are easily the worst matchup for us in the entire NFL. And they have now lost two in a row to us, and are 0-2 against the Bills in the playoffs.