Electoral Map
How does Romney get to 270? The most likely path…
Since we all know by now that a Presidential candidate can win the popular vote nationally but lose the election, special thanks to Florida 2000, I think it's important to diagnose the likelihood of such a scenario playing out in 2012.
The changing U.S. state populations will have a slight impact in the 2012 national election. If Obama carries all the states that presently pole to lean his way or greater the Democrats can count on on 237 electoral votes. If Romney carries the states McCain did he will automatically pickup an extra 6 electoral votes; from 173 to 179. This addition by subtraction reversal means Romney could compound this advantage by adding an Iowa or Nevada.
To chip away at Obama’s victory and pickup more votes the Republicans need to count on traditionally conservative states of; Indiana (11), Virginia (13) and North Carolina (15). Obama was able to narrowly clip McCain here in 2008. Winning back these 3 states would give Romney back 39 electoral votes. These states appear the easiest for Romney to "win back".
If Paul Ryan on the ticket gives the Republicans the Midwest boost they are hoping, than Wisconsin (9) and Iowa (6) are in play and the Republicans pickup another 15 electoral votes.
Assuming hard hit Nevada (6) with a heavy Mormon population goes with Romney the Republicans can count on another 6 electoral votes.
The second congressional district of Nebraska (Omaha) which Obama won in 2008 is a factor that should not be underplayed. This 1 electoral vote can be the tie-break Romney needs to get to 270. Also Maine awards its electoral votes via a Congressional District Methodology.
Even with all this good fortune: Florida (29) and Ohio (18) become the only way for Romney to close out this victory. Like George W. in 2000, Romney needs to take Florida. Romney can even afford to lose Colorado (9) a state in which 2.8% of the electorate is Mormon and there is a strong evangelical base.
If this scenario plays out Romney wins with 270 electoral votes to Obama's 268. A result the liberal in me would hate to see, but the statistician in me says is the most probable.
Let me know your thoughts.