ToGoGo

Guys, enjoy it. There's a solid portion of this board that can't type a word without including "13 seconds" or "but McDermott" or "It doesn't matter because of coaching" and so on. Total downer. You're all right, but you're all also dead wrong. It's low vibration thinking and all it does is bring more pain and beget more heartbreak. Spiral upwards people, not circle down the drain. Me personally, the only thing I want to talk about is how legendary Allen is and how good our entire team is when we're playing at the best of our abilities. I'm personally excited with Daboll gone and Allen given more control in play calling (I believe). Unfasten some of those chains. Every year it's a new high. A new bad "narrative" broken. How many fans are going to look like idiots next year for doubting the team? Aren't you guys sick of being proven wrong over and over again, week after week, season after season? Some of you are literally 0 for 100 when it comes to your opinions, yet somehow you never lose confidence.

Just imagine the Bills holding up the trophy with the confetti falling. Imagine the feeling. Hold on to that until next February.

See, to me, I can't just dismiss it. NFL teams don't make public accusations like that against the NFL's media darling unless they're sure. Look how much cheating was kept private over the years in regards to the Patriots. Remember McDermott escorting Belichick's son off the field? As for Brady playing better in the second half, again I believe deflating is about reducing fumbles, so I always saw that argument as a red herring. We'll have to agree to disagree. One thing I'll say though, that after looking fairly deeply at the data, in my opinion it is very naive to say that the deflating footballs to reduce fumbles argument is "stupid". It is very conceivable, and the timing from 2006 onwards is suspicious. And the data backs it up.

Then the question becomes, why did Brady go out of his way to deflate balls? What was the gain? If he is that smart, why would he do something so stupid, if there was no benefit?

Appreciate that. This is a layman's summary of what I'm finding. And remember I have all this messy data, so if you want to see it I can PM you the excels so show you my work. It's not perfect, but I think I'm working with 90% or so of the data. So not perfect, but enough to get rough conclusions. The theory is that deflated balls decrease fumbling since the ball would have slightly more "give", thus it would be more difficult to knock out of someone's hands compared to a very firm, deflated football. The rule change was pushed by Brady in 2006 which allows the offense to supply the balls for the game (do I have that correct?). Brady and his assistant were caught in 2014 deflating footballs in the bathroom before games. Data later came out showing that from 2007-2014 after the rule change was put in place, the Patriots had lower team-wide fumbling rates several standard deviations lower than 2nd place. The idea is that after the Pats were caught, those fumbling rates should go down to normal league-wide levels. What we found was the opposite. The Pats extremely low fumbling rates (note we're talking fumbles per touch, not just fumbles) continued until 2019. After Brady left, the Patriots fumbling rates fell back to normal league-wide rates. Prior to Brady arriving, the Bucs had below average fumbling rates. After Brady arrived, the Bucs went straight to the top of the low fumbling rate charts. On the surface, this supports Dave's theory that Brady is simply the GOAT because he doesn't fumble, and QBs make up a majority of a team's fumbling rates. I decided to test Dave's hypothesis by focusing on Non-QB Fumbling Rates by Team. This would eliminate Brady from the equation. The reason is simple, if the balls are being deflated to reduce fumbling, it would help the entire offense reduce fumbles, not just Brady. What I found was that the Patriots Non-QB fumble rate increased after Brady left, and the Bucs Non-QB fumble rate decreased when Brady arrived. In other words, where ever Brady goes, his rushers and receivers fumble less. Not just Brady. Since I'm biased, I would like to propose a theory that I don't believe has ever been proposed. My idea is that Brady had never stopped deflating footballs, even after getting caught in 2014. Since the deflating footballs operation was being run by Brady, and not Belichick (according to the texts and investigation evidence), it would make sense that deflating footballs would follow Brady around wherever he went, especially a 40+ hyper-competitive athlete looking for every edge possible at the highest level while his athletic abilities were declining. First step to proving me wrong: After Deflategate, did the NFL change the rule regarding the offense providing their own balls at Home and on the Road? If yes, then my theory is bunk. If not, then let's keep looking at it.

Dave, I have a question for you. I'm starting to look at the data and I'm focusing on non-QB fumbles divided by touches (nightmare to find a dataset for fumble per touch by team on a season, much less by position). That is what the Slate article was based on. I'm seeing a pattern. Tell me your thoughts. Would it be possible for Brady's teammates to have lower fumble rates (based on attempts) when Brady was the starting QB and higher fumble rates when he's not? We know if Brady is QB he has control over his fumbles, but what about his rushers and receivers? Does having Brady around decrease their fumbles? Could it be the offensive design?

You've inspired me. I'm going to drill down into that data and see what's really going on. My gut isn't accepting what you're saying. But if you're right, you're right. But I'm going to analyze first.

Very interesting. So what happened in 2006 that caused the Patriots to become the greatest ball security team of all time?

Don't have that data. But extremely unlikely. But the chart in the article is damning regardless. Especially with Brady pushing for that rule change.

The real story with Deflategate was the fumbles, or the lack of fumbles for the Patriots over many years by several standard deviations lower than the 2nd lowest team. Deflated balls are harder to fumble. https://slate.com/culture/2015/01/stats-show-the-new-england-patriots-became-nearly-fumble-proof-after-a-2006-rule-change-pushed-by-tom-brady.html People should care. It's a great example of how effective the Pats were at cheating for years. These things add up.

Agree with this. Like all great veteran QBs, the team's focus will shift to the O-line and offensive weapons. Josh will be more and more protected as he gets older. The "do it all yourself" mentality will decrease over time. Another poster mentioned that unlike Lamar Jackson or Cam Newton, Allen is a great passer and not just runner. So he will evolve. No doubt about it. I believe that evolution starts with Dorsey. The reason being, Allen has more say now. If Allen wants to throw bombs instead of running RPOs, I believe Allen now has the sway to make that audible. Daboll had too much power since he was there from the beginning with Josh.

It's still cool to see Allen that well-respected by fans of other teams. His street cred after that Chiefs game is legendary.

Willis is a good QB prospect, but he reminds me more of Kyler Murray than Josh Allen. Allen was a MACHINE in college highlights. Superman.

Interesting.

Maybe that's the racist aspect too. "Oh, we need to hire black guys? Let's hire them to be our fall guys! Hahaha."

"Revenge of the Fall Guys" I'm starting to get their grievance. The fanbases and media blame them, when in truth, they were puppets being told to lose.

I think what Flores is trying to say is that he was treated like a puppet in Miami. He rebelled against being a puppet for Ross and was fired. Probably true. Is it due to racism? IDK. Lots of puppets in the NFL.

The McD/Daboll thing is a distraction now. Schoen and Daboll are ex-Bills. The toxicity is on us a bit. Bills are a part of this story.

You should listen to Thomas Sowell. Brilliant man. Black man, for those who care. He believes affirmative action leads to hiring unqualified people who struggle working above their pay grade. That it doesn't actually help anything and only looks good for the politicians who then refuse to take any blame. He calls them "self-annointed". He also believes that it affirmative action has a sub-text of treating minorities like they are inferior and need to be coddled.

I suspect Belichick didn't make a mistake. This toxic disaster hurts the Bills and Dolphins (his biggest rivals) much more than the Pats.

What's wrong with knowing who you want as coach right away? Do you know how many companies go through an RFP process even when they already have a vendor in mind? It's policy. As it is in the NFL.

Haha. Some people have nothing to add, but they need to add something anyway. You see it in every thread.

Most Westerners are weird about this kind of stuff, so you'll get downvoted, but I always appreciate an open-minded person! In my mind, "17" has been everywhere around Josh. 17 year drought. 17 passer rating in the Falcons win. etc. etc. The number follows him around, so in my mind it is meant to be. He should stick with it.

But he DID make that throw. Because he's extraordinary. And he's made those 3rd or 4th down plays his entire career. It's just your first time being exposed to it, you think it's some sort of miracle. How many yards would Mahomes have if Hill didn't have 4.2 speed after the catch? Or these questions don't apply to Mahomes? Of course not. I got a very original one. What if the Chiefs lost the coin toss? I'm sorry Allen ruined your dynasty party. You want Mahomes alone at the top. But life isn't fair. There's always somebody better. Mahomes newest test will be dealing with being 2nd best for the next 10 years. Or worse once Kelce loses a step. Don't be surprised if Mahomes has a bumpy 2022 if that happens.

You're right. I'll be better! Great idea! I'll go to the gym today.