ToGoGo

It all depends on what the team doctors say. They would know best here. If they feel he can get back to All-World status, then you take a chance on getting a HOF level talent at RB, especially where that's an area that is holding the team back. As for the $7.2M, if he's healthy then he's worth every penny. He's the Thurman we've been looking for.

I agree. Although I don't believe our kids are better off with the information on their phones. Something about reading a book can't compare. But yes, libraries are for internet use for those that don't have it at home. My point was to spend it on something greater than sports. Why are we subsidizing billion dollar businesses? Talk about rich getting richer. Why not pay Allen's salary with tax dollars too?

Good. Spend it on libraries and museums. Let the billionaires pay for their toy's garage.

Nice job memorizing the PSE script. You get a promotion!

Good. The Pegulas can stop holding the fans hostage, and then gaslighting anybody who has the nerve to suggest they pay for it themselves with their billions or take out loans. Lots of fans say things like "Pegulas own the team, they can do whatever they want with it, deal with it", but then out the other side of their mouth say "The public needs to pay to keep the team here! It's a privilege!" Which one is it? They make the decisions, have all the control, and all the profits, but we pay the costs? Sounds like a raw deal to me. Sick of the ultra-wealthy playing the general public like a fiddle. So obvious once you know what to look for.

Fans act like an All-Pro player is the worst garbage in the world after a down year or injury. They get off on it. I'd be mad, but people like this are the reason you can make money on the stock market betting against public opinion.

Haha no. TJ. I'm exaggerating the habit of an unusually large number of posters to say no to acquiring great players because they fear losing draft picks or salary cap space.

I hear that a lot from Bills fans. "Hey, TJ Watt is available" "Hard pass. Wouldnt touch him with a 10 foot pole. Maybe for a 6th" They feel some sort of power from it, I think.

Good for him.

Guys, enjoy it. There's a solid portion of this board that can't type a word without including "13 seconds" or "but McDermott" or "It doesn't matter because of coaching" and so on. Total downer. You're all right, but you're all also dead wrong. It's low vibration thinking and all it does is bring more pain and beget more heartbreak. Spiral upwards people, not circle down the drain. Me personally, the only thing I want to talk about is how legendary Allen is and how good our entire team is when we're playing at the best of our abilities. I'm personally excited with Daboll gone and Allen given more control in play calling (I believe). Unfasten some of those chains. Every year it's a new high. A new bad "narrative" broken. How many fans are going to look like idiots next year for doubting the team? Aren't you guys sick of being proven wrong over and over again, week after week, season after season? Some of you are literally 0 for 100 when it comes to your opinions, yet somehow you never lose confidence.

Just imagine the Bills holding up the trophy with the confetti falling. Imagine the feeling. Hold on to that until next February.

See, to me, I can't just dismiss it. NFL teams don't make public accusations like that against the NFL's media darling unless they're sure. Look how much cheating was kept private over the years in regards to the Patriots. Remember McDermott escorting Belichick's son off the field? As for Brady playing better in the second half, again I believe deflating is about reducing fumbles, so I always saw that argument as a red herring. We'll have to agree to disagree. One thing I'll say though, that after looking fairly deeply at the data, in my opinion it is very naive to say that the deflating footballs to reduce fumbles argument is "stupid". It is very conceivable, and the timing from 2006 onwards is suspicious. And the data backs it up.

Then the question becomes, why did Brady go out of his way to deflate balls? What was the gain? If he is that smart, why would he do something so stupid, if there was no benefit?

Appreciate that. This is a layman's summary of what I'm finding. And remember I have all this messy data, so if you want to see it I can PM you the excels so show you my work. It's not perfect, but I think I'm working with 90% or so of the data. So not perfect, but enough to get rough conclusions. The theory is that deflated balls decrease fumbling since the ball would have slightly more "give", thus it would be more difficult to knock out of someone's hands compared to a very firm, deflated football. The rule change was pushed by Brady in 2006 which allows the offense to supply the balls for the game (do I have that correct?). Brady and his assistant were caught in 2014 deflating footballs in the bathroom before games. Data later came out showing that from 2007-2014 after the rule change was put in place, the Patriots had lower team-wide fumbling rates several standard deviations lower than 2nd place. The idea is that after the Pats were caught, those fumbling rates should go down to normal league-wide levels. What we found was the opposite. The Pats extremely low fumbling rates (note we're talking fumbles per touch, not just fumbles) continued until 2019. After Brady left, the Patriots fumbling rates fell back to normal league-wide rates. Prior to Brady arriving, the Bucs had below average fumbling rates. After Brady arrived, the Bucs went straight to the top of the low fumbling rate charts. On the surface, this supports Dave's theory that Brady is simply the GOAT because he doesn't fumble, and QBs make up a majority of a team's fumbling rates. I decided to test Dave's hypothesis by focusing on Non-QB Fumbling Rates by Team. This would eliminate Brady from the equation. The reason is simple, if the balls are being deflated to reduce fumbling, it would help the entire offense reduce fumbles, not just Brady. What I found was that the Patriots Non-QB fumble rate increased after Brady left, and the Bucs Non-QB fumble rate decreased when Brady arrived. In other words, where ever Brady goes, his rushers and receivers fumble less. Not just Brady. Since I'm biased, I would like to propose a theory that I don't believe has ever been proposed. My idea is that Brady had never stopped deflating footballs, even after getting caught in 2014. Since the deflating footballs operation was being run by Brady, and not Belichick (according to the texts and investigation evidence), it would make sense that deflating footballs would follow Brady around wherever he went, especially a 40+ hyper-competitive athlete looking for every edge possible at the highest level while his athletic abilities were declining. First step to proving me wrong: After Deflategate, did the NFL change the rule regarding the offense providing their own balls at Home and on the Road? If yes, then my theory is bunk. If not, then let's keep looking at it.

Dave, I have a question for you. I'm starting to look at the data and I'm focusing on non-QB fumbles divided by touches (nightmare to find a dataset for fumble per touch by team on a season, much less by position). That is what the Slate article was based on. I'm seeing a pattern. Tell me your thoughts. Would it be possible for Brady's teammates to have lower fumble rates (based on attempts) when Brady was the starting QB and higher fumble rates when he's not? We know if Brady is QB he has control over his fumbles, but what about his rushers and receivers? Does having Brady around decrease their fumbles? Could it be the offensive design?

You've inspired me. I'm going to drill down into that data and see what's really going on. My gut isn't accepting what you're saying. But if you're right, you're right. But I'm going to analyze first.

Very interesting. So what happened in 2006 that caused the Patriots to become the greatest ball security team of all time?

Don't have that data. But extremely unlikely. But the chart in the article is damning regardless. Especially with Brady pushing for that rule change.

The real story with Deflategate was the fumbles, or the lack of fumbles for the Patriots over many years by several standard deviations lower than the 2nd lowest team. Deflated balls are harder to fumble. https://slate.com/culture/2015/01/stats-show-the-new-england-patriots-became-nearly-fumble-proof-after-a-2006-rule-change-pushed-by-tom-brady.html People should care. It's a great example of how effective the Pats were at cheating for years. These things add up.

Agree with this. Like all great veteran QBs, the team's focus will shift to the O-line and offensive weapons. Josh will be more and more protected as he gets older. The "do it all yourself" mentality will decrease over time. Another poster mentioned that unlike Lamar Jackson or Cam Newton, Allen is a great passer and not just runner. So he will evolve. No doubt about it. I believe that evolution starts with Dorsey. The reason being, Allen has more say now. If Allen wants to throw bombs instead of running RPOs, I believe Allen now has the sway to make that audible. Daboll had too much power since he was there from the beginning with Josh.

It's still cool to see Allen that well-respected by fans of other teams. His street cred after that Chiefs game is legendary.

Willis is a good QB prospect, but he reminds me more of Kyler Murray than Josh Allen. Allen was a MACHINE in college highlights. Superman.

Interesting.

Maybe that's the racist aspect too. "Oh, we need to hire black guys? Let's hire them to be our fall guys! Hahaha."

"Revenge of the Fall Guys" I'm starting to get their grievance. The fanbases and media blame them, when in truth, they were puppets being told to lose.