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Everything posted by hondo in seattle
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McD's defenders are not saying that he has zero impact on the offense. I certainly haven't. I've said in this thread that he has a positive impact on the esprit de corps and commitment of the offensive players. But I think he's struggled with scheme & play calling because he's been poor at picking OCs. His offensive performance has been a mixed bag. And I certainly don't think coaching is unimportant. Just the opposite. If I was an owner, I'd be willing to pay my head coach as much as my QB - or more - if he was good. I happen to think McD is a good coach and - especially on the defensive side of the ball - gets players to execute and play well together. I don't think he's a super swell guy. I wouldn't fire him because I think the most likely consequence is that we'd end up with a worse head coach and I don't want the team to go backwards. I think the coaches demonstrably better than him are few in number and already well-employed.
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Ending the drought and getting us into the playoffs every year except for the season when we had the lowest-paid roster in the league. It's kind of the chicken or the egg argument. Do we have a situation where good players make the coach look good? Or do we have a situation where a good coach develops the players and makes them look good? I think it's a little of both. On the defensive side, I think McD's scheme and his ability to get players to play as one unit makes some guys perform better here than they'd perform on other teams. When I watch our defense, I often think of the old saying, "The whole is greater than the sum of its parts." And that's because of McD. On offense, it's a different story. McD builds good esprit de corps and commitment but struggles with getting the right OC to implement a scheme that optimizes players' talents. Brady is his fourth OC. Only one worked out so far. McD and Daboll did a nice job developing Allen but now Allen carries the offense. Brady wasn't great last season but I'm waiting to see how he'll do this year with his own playbook before I pass judgment. You can't win the lottery unless you buy tickets. By getting us into the playoffs, McD is giving us a lottery ticket. Chances are, we'll eventually win. But I'd like our odds better if (1) Brady turns out to be the right OC - fingers crossed - or is replaced by someone who is, and/or (2) Beane builds a better roster.
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Josh is a unicorn and not all head coaches have a guy of that calibre. But there are guys lining up under center that also play the game pretty well. Josh was 16th in passer rating last year, 3rd in QBR. If you average that out, he had roughly the 9th best season for a QB last year. Of course, you have to wonder if Josh would have played better if: #1 He had better coaching. We did fire our OC in the middle of the season. #2 He had a better team around him. I know the stats tell a different story but I didn't think the OL was elite. And the wideouts had trouble getting open. One analytics site had both Diggs and Davis below the NFL average in yards of separation/pass play. And, of course, we don't have a back of McCaffrey's caliber, for example, to take some heat off the QB. #1 is a McD thing and #2 is a Beane thing. I think probably both are true. I don't know enough about Staley to compare the two but I think it is fair to say that McD isn't at the Reid level (yet?). I think McD's playoff record at 5-6 is a pretty fair indication of how he's coached in the playoffs. In other words, he's been about average among coaches who get their teams into the playoffs. And I do 'blame' him. We need him to be better than average. But if I had a binary choice of replacing Beane or McD, I'd replace Beane. I think there's more upside on the roster side than the coaching side. Though I do think McD urgently needs to get the OC thing figured out - I hope Brady proves to be The Guy.
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I think saying there's a "midseason malaise" every season is a little hyperbolic. When did we slump in McD's 13-3 years? But, yeah, McD is the coach and deserves to be blamed for whatever malaise the team suffered whenever it suffered it. But here's the thing. All other NFL teams, other than KC, lose even more regular season games than Buffalo. So their coaches must allow even more 'malaise' than McD. So who are you going to replace McD with? As far as I know, Andy Reid isn't looking for a job. I'll stick with the guy who sucks less than 30 other NFL coaches (based on W-L record since 2020).
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You can lose a one-on-one battle because lack of technique. Coaches have to share in the blame if that's the case. But when a guy just can't physically compete with the guy across from him, that's a talent issue. We've seen this time and time again. Defensive linemen who can't beat their blocks. Offensive linemen who can't hold their blocks. Receivers who can't get separation. DBs who can't stick to their guys. Those are mostly not scheme or playcalling problems. Sometimes the other team just has better players.
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I don't care if you think it's borderline laughable. It that was meant as an insult, sorry, it didn't land. Though I don't understand your need to be rude. TBD, and the world in general, would be a better place if people practiced kindness and respect. But to respond to your point. I don't think McD overperformed in any postseason so far. I think he performed about as well as you'd expect given the talent and health of the squad. And that, in itself, is disappointing. I want my coach to overperform when it matters most. I do think he overperformed in the second of last season with how banged up we were on defense. I think he overperformed in 2017 by getting that untalented squad into the playoffs. And I think 2018 was one of his best years despite the 6-10 record. We spent less on active players that season than any team in the NFL. Based on roster spending, we should have been the league's worst team. He took that crap roster and made it mildly competitive. That was an accomplishment. Since 2020, the Bills are the second-winningest team in the NFL. I wouldn't rate the Bills roster second-best over that span. McD's is outperforming a lot of other coaches.
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Beane has limited what he can do in free agency with the three huge contracts he handed out: Josh. Worth every penny. Diggs. A productive player but a malcontent. And now we're paying him $31m to play for someone else. Miller. Not a malcontent but not a productive player. In the draft, we all know Beane's been hit-or-miss. Overall, Beane's built a good roster, not a great one. We lose too many one-on-one battles both on offense and defense, particularly in the playoffs. That's not poor coaching, that's a lack of player talent. Though, to be fair, Beane hasn't been helped by injuries.
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Maybe I wasn't clear. I think coaches make a huge difference. The best coaches get the best out of their teams. They win more games than you'd expect given the strength of the roster. The worst coaches underperform vis-a-vis the roster. I think McD has performed at the level of his roster or above (depending on which season or postseason we want to talk about). I probably don't think the roster has been as good as you think. And I think it's unwise to fire a coach who tends to overperform just because he hasn't won a SB yet. Andy Reid would have been fired many times if that was the case. Years past, we've gone into seasons with a 0% chance of earning a Lombardi. With Beane & McD, I rate our chances every year at around 10% - among the league's best. To improve our chances, we need to build a better roster. We can either (1) allow Beane to grow into his job, or (2) replace him with someone better. I don't think firing McD is likely to improve our odds.
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13 seconds rears its head, Gable Steveson!
hondo in seattle replied to ddaryl's topic in The Stadium Wall
According to the prosecutor it was. Hennepin County Attorney Mike Freeman said at the time, “There are often conflicting versions of what happened and this case is no exception. In the interest of justice, there is inadequate evidence to fairly charge and prosecute this case.” Steveson's attorney said a change in legislation wouldn't have affected the outcome. The prosecutor didn't say anything one way or the other. Why do you say he'd likely be charged under today's law? Steveson said, "No charges were ever brought by anyone and the entire episode has been difficult for everyone involved … Going forward people who don’t know me will hopefully see that kindness, respect and empathy are virtues I take very seriously in my life. I hope that's true. Since the DA didn't proceed "in the interest of justice," I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. apnews.com/general-news-1221944d273eb2cdb0d285de3d665b3f www.ringsidenews.com/2021/12/11/gable-steveson-clears-the-air-after-past-assault-allegation-resurfaces/ -
I don't think we've seen Allen's floor or ceiling yet. Think of the '68, '71 or '76 Bills. I watched those teams play. Even Allen couldn't have carried those inept squads to the playoffs. His basement is below wildcard because the rest of the roster matters. As for ceiling, let me ask: In what season did the Bills have the best roster in the NFL when entering the playoffs? Personally, I don't think that's happened yet. Not even close. So personally I don't understand why anyone is saying McD's coaching has capped the Bills playoff performance. McD usually exits the playoffs about where you'd expect, given the talent of the team that takes the field. I'd be happier if he overperformed in the playoffs but that hasn't happened yet. He has at times overperformed (vis-a-vis the strength of the roster) in the regular season. Beane still has some work to do. He drafted Allen and has built, overall, a good collection of players. But it's not a great one. It's not at the KC level.
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I was one of the people worried about Diggs. In fact, I started a thread about it. But that was an attitude issue. Any time an attitude issue bubbles up, I worry about it. Execution in OTAs is not, however, something I worry about. Heck, the Super Bowl-era Bills sucked in preseason and yet dominated n the regular season. I don't worry about execution until September. www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/246881-the-allen-diggs-relationship-in-decline/#comment-8362163
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Is James Cook a Top-Five All Time Bills Running Back?
hondo in seattle replied to Shaw66's topic in The Stadium Wall
Cook is a nice back but doesn't rank with the best of Bills history. Some of his stats - like yards per carry - are helped by the fact that he's a running back on a passing team. Opponents are almost exclusively focused on defending Josh. That's what they game plan for. They don't game plan for Cook. Cook, like Thomas before him, is a dual purpose back. But Thurm was better both as a receiver and runner. Defenses in those days had the unenviable tasks of trying to stop both Thurman and Kelly. Cook and Allen are not nearly as fearsome a duo. I agree that there might be 10 backs from Bills history that I'd take over Cook. -
Is James Cook a Top-Five All Time Bills Running Back?
hondo in seattle replied to Shaw66's topic in The Stadium Wall
Yep - 2 years in the USFL. At his peak, he was fun to watch. But his peak didn't last long. -
Wanna buy Tyrod Taylor's house?
hondo in seattle replied to \GoBillsInDallas/'s topic in The Stadium Wall
Elvis? -
Is James Cook a Top-Five All Time Bills Running Back?
hondo in seattle replied to Shaw66's topic in The Stadium Wall
Before Josh came along, I used to say that we've been blessed at RB and cursed at QB. -
Is James Cook a Top-Five All Time Bills Running Back?
hondo in seattle replied to Shaw66's topic in The Stadium Wall
My list based on personal observation (i.e. not an analysis of stats or highlights). I'm only considering the time they played in a Bills uni. (1) OJ. An other worldly runner. (2) Thurman. A great all-purpose back and a great fit for the offense he was in. (3) Freddy. Freddy is often underrated because he mostly played behind bad lines on bad teams. Great at getting something out of nothing. (4) Joe Cribbs. Excellent runner and receiver. (5) Shady. A bright spot on a bad team. I never watched him play live, but some old-timers might make a good case for Cookie Gilchrist. On a different day of the week, I might alter the order but I'd stick with these five with OJ on top. If we include their careers beyond the Bills, Marshawn probably moves into the Top Five and Shady moves up the list. -
Wanna buy Tyrod Taylor's house?
hondo in seattle replied to \GoBillsInDallas/'s topic in The Stadium Wall
If you don't have $5mil for TT's place, you can buy this 1,000-foot, 100-year-old house in Palo Alto for barely half the price... Phil Lesh of the Grateful Dead once rented the home and he let Bob Weir live in the garage. Hewlett-Packard was founded in a different garage just a few blocks away. -
You can find great people, great posts, and great insight on TBD and that's why I keep coming here. What disappoints me are the other people who get hostile when you have an opposing opinion or get a fact wrong - or insist you got a fact wrong when you didn't. Buffalo is called The City of Good Neighbors." I think all Buffalonians, actual and honorary, ought to live by that tagline. We've suffered together through 1-win seasons, four SB losses, a 17-year drought, 13-seconds, and a host of other hardships together. We ought to be a Band of Brothers who support and respect each other.
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Which of the away games will most TBD be attending?
hondo in seattle replied to Guffalo's topic in The Stadium Wall
I'm currently in CA but have family in Seattle and love the city. Looking hard at that one. -
Khalil Shakir/Moulds video
hondo in seattle replied to The Firebaugh Kid's topic in The Stadium Wall
Cool he's training with Moulds. Seems driven... head's on straight... gotta root for him. I wonder, of all the players on the team, why the Bills decided to do an in-depth video on Shakir. -
I chose the 1920-1921 Buffalo All-Americans of the early NFL. Somehow they lost only one scheduled, sanctioned game in the first two years of the league and yet were never crowned champs. They acquired the nickname, "All-Americans," because of the ridiculous number of All-American collegiate players who joined the squad. I admit I'm being a homer by chosing the All-Americans but they truly were a powerhouse... In 1920, the All-Americans outscored their opponents 258 points to 32. But lost the league title when we tied the eventual champs, the Akron Pros, in the last game of the season. They had strange rules back then. In 1921, we finished the season undefeated, outscoring our opponents 218 to 19. There were no playoffs in those days and we became league champs by having the best record. Or so the team and local newspapers thought. But then the All-Americans owner, Frank McNeil, then scheduled an exhibition game against Dayton in Buffalo one day and another exhibition in Chicago the following day. Some players choose not to embark on a 500-mile train ride just for an exhibition game. Others were fatigued by two back-to-back games and a long trip. The exhausted team lost to Chicago 10-7. After some additional maneuvering, politicking, and general unfairness, the league decided to count the exhibition games. The league title was awarded to Chicago in what’s known as the Staley Swindle. Tommy Hughitt (QB/Coach). Tommy was an athletic quarterback but truly excelled as a player-coach. His NFL winning percentage of .694 is 6th all-time, ahead of legends like Don Shula, Bill Cowher, Bill Walsh, Joe Gibbs, Tony Dungee, Bill Belichick, and Andy Reid. According to some reports, Hughitt was the first NFL coach to employ a spread offense. Elmer “Catchy” Oliphant (HB) led the NFL in scoring, FGs, PATs, and TD passes 1921. He still holds collegiate scoring records at both Purdue and West Point where he excelled in a variety of sports and once held the low-hurdle world record. Luke Urban (End) was named to All-Pro teams in 1920, 1922, and 1923. A gifted all-around athlete, he attended college at Boston College where he starred in football, basketball, baseball, and hockey and was a captain of three of those teams. Long before Bo Jackson and Deion Sanders, Urban played both football and baseball professionally. Bob Nash (Tackle/End) once knocked Jim Thorpe out while tackling him, though he knocked himself out on the same play. Buffalo thrashed Thorpe's team 57-0 that fine day. Ockie Anderson (HB/QB) was the NFL’s second-leading scorer in 1920 and individually outscored four teams. In 1921 he led the league in TDs and was once again the NFL’s second-leading scorer, trailing only his Buffalo teammate, Elmer Oliphant.
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Random talking head says something about the Bills
hondo in seattle replied to Simon's topic in The Stadium Wall
Apologies for taking the remarks out of context. I never suggested that McD was going to develop new wrinkles that put our offense over the top. Not even close. I just said he's not over his head when it comes to NFL offenses. Besides that, I agree with you. I try to pay attention to what players say - and don't say. A lot of players praise McD as a head coach and leader - his preparation, hard work, etc. What I don't hear much about is X and O acumen. In comparison, I've heard lots of comments from players and coaches alike about Greg Roman being a genius at scheming up a run game or Kyle Shanahan being a genius at scheming up a passing game or Belichick being a genius at more or less everything (according to some). Players and coaches are mostly silent on McD's tactical genius. So I'm guessing he's solid at X's and O's but not among the very best. I think his strengths are preparation for game day, building teamwork, and getting guys to execute. -
I think this is a great question. Without being in the locker room with the guys, it's hard to say who might emerge as a leader this season. We certainly need someone to step up with all the veteran leaders we've lost. In the past, Allen has said he displays his leadership by his play on the field. While leading by example is important, it's not the be-all/end-all of leadership. We need players who get other players to commit to "the process," pay attention in the meeting rooms, and execute on the practice field as well as the game field. I don't know if Josh has done a lot of that previously but he did say that he'll take a bigger role this year. I agree with most of your assessments. And in another thread, I advocated for Hyde's return for the very same reason: his leadership. If he wasn't 40 years old, I'd want Kyle Williams back too.