hondo in seattle

I don't have good facial recognition skills or a good memory for numbers. In short, I suppose I'm just not very bright. But even I could recognize this Bill.

I always thought if I was an offensive coordinator, I'd make the OL a priority. I'd want two Pro Bowl quality linemen and three solid other starters. QBs throw better and last longer behind a good offensive line. And RBs produce more. In 1971, I watched Willie Ellison run 26 times for 247 yards through the biggest holes ever seen. Willie broke Jim Brown's NFL record and Cookie Gilchrist's pro football record that memorable day. Even good backs struggle with bad offensive lines. An average back like Willie runs like OJ when the holes are big enough. Beane has improved the OL with a bunch of journeyman but there are no real dominant stars on this line. It's a curious thing. Bean spent a lot of draft capital on a QB and a lot of money on WRs. But he hasn't invested much - money or draft capital - in his RBs or offensive line.

I once read something from a former NE coach - I wish I could remember exactly who. In any case, he said that Daboll would make an excellent OC even though he was much smarter with passing game concepts than run game concepts. All NFL OCs use the same running plays. But there are little nuances in play design and play calling that make a difference. Greg Roman knows how to produce rushing yardage. Gailey did a nice job in 2012 - with CJ and a little bit of Freddy - despite not having the best OL. Daboll, it seems, still has a lot to learn.

Although I aspired to be a WR, I loved watching great RBs when I was kid. OJ was the best back of my childhood - arguably the best back of all time (apologies to Jim Brown). But Floyd Little was also a great joy to watch. "Tackling Floyd Little is like wrestling with a bag of flour open at the top. He just spills out all over. And you're left holding the bag."

I'm slow. I didn't get this at first.

Yep. I know zero about any of our other long snappers. But I know about Jon: the thing with his parents (very sad) and then his second career as a magician (very cool)!

This is weird but overstated truth. JA was a liability his first year and a sometimes-liability his second. Now he carries the team. Meanwhile the strength of the team - the defense - has become the liability. Without JA, we're not Jets bad but we're not good.

Yes, sir. I always loved his Hungarian surname. And, if I'm not mistaken, he was pro football's first soccer style kicker. A trend was started.

Agreed. If you read up on Pete Carroll and listen him talk, particularly about defense, he's clearly an intelligent man. I can't recall who exactly said this, but a DC was talking about how NFL DCs all run the same schemes - some get their squads to execute better or simply have better players. He said there were just two guys in the NFL who were truly innovative - I think he used the word "genius" - Belichick and Carroll. That's why Carroll's remark about having a good plan for the Bills run attack so odd. We ran hard at NE but have otherwise been a passing team. I suspect that if the interview had been more in-depth, Carroll would have explained, like Hapless suggests, that he expected the Bills (after the recent success against the Pats) would be more balanced and not throw the ball almost exclusively. It was such an odd (and, admittedly, stupid sounding) statement, I'm surprised there weren't follow up questions at the presser. And like GunnerBill & Buddo both said, Carroll just didn't have DBs who could cover our WRs. Scheme only goes so far. A defense needs talent too.

I've only seen Jim Brown in highlights - and they're impressive. His stats are impressive too. So it's fair to say he's the best ever. But OJ is the greatest RB I've ever saw play. Better than Barry, Walter and the rest of them. I'd go so far as to say he was the greatest football player I've ever seen. He was so far ahead of his peers - moreso than Brady is/was ahead of Brees, Rodgers, etc. In his time, OJ was on another level. A unique blend of speed, strength, vision, and elusiveness.

A few come to mind... Kelly's rushing TD against Miami. Roland Hooks' diving catch prior to the Hair Mary to beat the Patriots. Many of OJ's runs. They often didn't mean a lot but they were sheer joy to watch. One in particular: I don't recall the opponent but OJ's breaking free and the safety (?) is obviously pooping his pants because he's got to make the tackle. OJ does a couple of dekes and the safety trips over himself. OJ scores. I have never enjoyed watching an athlete more than I enjoyed watching OJ. He was preternatural. Here's one I didn't see but I wish I had. Cookie, a violent runner, turns the corner and intentionally hammers into Patriot CB, Chuck Shonta, knocking him out cold. Other Patriot defenders gather around their fallen comrade. Cookie angrily growls a challenge at them: "Which one of you mother******s is next?" Duly intimidated, the Pats lose to us in a rout.

I realize some very talented statisticians work at 538. And I know their game predictions are pretty good. But if their model says the Bills should have 4.7 wins, their model is wrong. We didn't get 7 wins off of unearned turnovers or weird bounces. We outplayed our opponent 7 times this year. Sometimes I watch a game and feel like the better team lost. I never had that feeling so far watching the Bills this year. I think it's interesting 538 attributes the Bills good record to luck rather than to a flaw with their "Pythagorean expectations." They can't possibly believe their predictive model is perfect, can they?

Funny you say that, bigk, because as I was watching the youtube video, I was thinking it was kind of a Woodstock thing. 400,000 people were actually at Woodstock yet a 1,000,000 or more claim they were there. Similarly, I think a lot of more people say they saw this game - including the miraculous ending - than actually did. As you know, lots of people left early like you did - before the Hooks fireworks. Anyway, congrats to you for the honesty. Feel bad for you - you missed a great Bills moment. My favorite game between OJ and Kelly.

I voted for Roland Hooks earlier. For the young ones... It was Week 12 of the 1981 season. We desperately needed a win against the Pats to keep our slim playoff hopes alive. But our offense sputtered. Only able to find the endzone once all day (an 11 yard Fergie to Hooks connection), we were losing 17-13 with less than a minute left. The Pats faced a 4th and 2 in Buffalo territory and decided to go for it. After all they had Sam "the Bam" Cunningham in the backfield - the league's best short yardage specialist. If they made the first down, game over. The Bills were out of time outs. If they didn't make the first down, the Bills were unlikely to score with mere seconds left on a ticking clock. The Bills D stuffs Cunningham. 35 seconds left. 73 yards to go. We've got the ball - but very little hope. Then Roland Hooks happens. Here's the Youtube vid. For a great Bills treat, just watch the end of the game from about 2:34 on. Maybe the best 35 seconds of game time in Bills history.

Frank Reich and Roland Hooks. I was a Hooks fan even before his back-to-back miracle catches against the Pats with mere seconds left that helped get us into the playoffs in '81. If you count them as backups, I have to add Freddy and Tasker.

Bart Scott says Belichick should be fired as GM. There's be some conversation about this in Bean Town. Pats fans are not happy with the roster he's built. https://patriotswire.usatoday.com/2020/10/30/espns-bart-scott-calls-for-the-firing-of-bill-belichick-the-general-manager/ https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/11/03/sports/bill-belichicks-excuses-about-salary-cap-are-disingenuous/

When did "pressures" become a stat? I wonder how Bruce did there.

So not all Js are good but all non-Js pretty much suck. Probability says then that the OP is right - draft only Js. It's science.

I like what Flores is doing in Miami. Not many expected them to be ahead of NE right now. But if Tua turns out to be a bust, Flores probably goes down too. And that wouldn't be a bad things for Buffalo.

I'm not sure how exactly they define "pressure" but there may be two kinds: 1. Jerry Hughes beats his man with a swim move, pressures the QB who steps up to avoid Hughes and then gets sacked by Oliver. 2. Jerry Hughes beats his man with a swim move, pressures the QB who steps up to avoid the sack and delivers a strike for a first down. Pressure is good. Sacks are better. To get sacks, it helps to have multiple points of pressure and that hadn't been happening nearly enough earlier this season.

In a battle between two bad defenses, I think the Seahawks score more. But I can't officially predict a loss, even if I'm preparing myself spiritually, psychologically and emotionally for one. So... Allen finds his touch: Bills 34, Hawks 30 in a shootout reminiscent of the No Punt game.

Nix thought he could get Wilson in the beginning of the 4th. He was wrong. And that makes me wonder how smart GMs are about other GMs on draft day. Let me explain with a military analogy. Army intelligence guys & gals are not spies - not James Bond types like you see in the movies. Their expertise is the enemy. For example, if we're thinking about invading a foreign country, the intel guys will tell us how they'll fight and what they'll fight with. They know about force strength, weaponry, tactics, logistics, and so on. We'll even sit down and do wargames on a big map board reviewing different scenarios and decision trees. While most of the officers involved in an exercise like this will play our side, the intel guys will play the enemy. I wonder if NFL GMs do something like this. How much do they wargame the draft? How much do the study their enemy (the other 31 GMs) in order to anticipate their moves? If Nix had understood the Seahawks a little better, he could have gone for Wilson in the 3rd. NFL teams ought to have intel guys on staff who are experts on our enemies. My original title actually mimicked the title of the article I was referencing. But I changed it - just for you - to make it a bit clearer.

Just because it was in the Seattle Times today. I thought it was an interesting article so I decided to share it with my Bills brothers and sisters.

This is old news but the Seattle Times ran a nice article today about how the Bills almost picked Wilson. It sounds like David Lee really wanted him: Quarterbacks coach David Lee made a video presentation to offensive coordinator Chan Gailey showing that Wilson’s height wouldn’t be the problem some were thinking, showing “that Wilson’s over-the-top throwing motion made him deliver the ball taller than 6-foot-7 Brock Osweiler, who had a lower release,” per The Athletic. https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/as-russell-wilson-finally-gets-to-play-in-buffalo-its-time-to-recall-how-the-bills-once-viewed-him-as-their-potential-savior/

They're giving us a 46% chance of winning this week - better odds than in some other corners. But their historic ELO rankings don't do Buffalo justice, IMHO. Buffalo attained its highest ELO of 1705 rating in 1991. Even the undefeated Buffalo All-Americans and the AFL championship Bills never surpassed an ELO of 1700. Most NFL teams have a year (or several) where their ELO ranking was higher than the Bill all-time high of 1705. What the Bills attained under Levy, Kelly, Smith & Company wasn't particularly special according to 538. A good team - maybe a very good team - but not a great one. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/complete-history-of-the-nfl/