OldTimer1960

I don’t think that next year’s first is worth more than this year’s 2nd in a trade. Teams generally discount a pick next year by a round when used in trade for picks this year.

Just playing devil’s advocate - couldn’t same be said for WR? They have “found” starters without spending big $ in FA or high draft picks - and the offense has been very good. To be clear, both WR and the secondary have been more “it’s fine” than “hey, this is a strength”. I am for Wr in round 1, provided that there is not a much higher rated player at another premium position including DE, DT, OT and CB. I actually would be excited to trade down and get either a late 3rd or early 4th. No WR that has any likelihood of being available is a “can’t pass up” guy. I could align with Mitchell, Legette or McConkey with some reservations on each. In my view, if Verse, Latu, Murphy or Newton are there, I’d be very tempted. I could also really understand if they took Chop Robinson. That’s the challenge. If you take WR in the first, you could probably get an equivalent talent 10 picks later, though maybe not an X. BUT, if you pass on WR at 28 or after small trade down, you could be down to the 4th tier in WR by 60.

Why would that be dumb? Premium position, some 1st round prospects, need likely next year. I really don’t understand the fear of CB in the first round- and we hear it every year at draft time. It is a passing dominated league, somebody needs to cover receivers- hopefully well. I am not arguing that they should take a CB in the first, but if they do it would not be like taking a RB or S or LB in the first- those positions have somewhat lesser value based on how the league pays them.

Either late 3rd or early 4th would be OK in my opinion. There are usually some guys that are available at the top of the 4th that seem to stand above the others remaining. Of course, still better to have the late 3rd…

I don’t know. Polk is a tough dude and pretty solid-floor guy, but his upside seems pretty minimal to me. Walker is pretty raw and has his share of problems, but he has all kinds of athletic ability and size - if he improves he could be really good.

Would be pretty good. I’m a little worried about Fiske being a little undersized- especially his arm length, but he is an exciting prospect.

I think that expectation is too high. They might find a good starting WR - and that’s fine. If you’re expecting superstar, uncoverable WR, I think you’ll be disappointed.

Legette won’t make it to 60 and Coleman could be pretty good or end up unable to get open at all. Walker has all sorts of athletic tools, but is a gamble that he can develop. I think if you get past mid-2nd you might not find a WR worth taking.

If the Bills believe he can be a good starting CB in the league, I could see it. I used to feel differently, but I would be reluctant to spend a first on him if they see him as a S.

I guess I don’t have any big favorites - at least that are likely to be available at 28 and would be fits for the Bills. I really like watching McConkey’s route running, but I don’t think the Bills will take him. I would also like Latu, but he is unlikely to be available. Of the WRs that have a reasonable chance to be there, I guess I would go Mitchell, but I’m not super crazy about that. On the flip-side, I would be a little disappointed if they took Troy Franklin at 28 - if they took him somewhere in the 2nd I would Be more happy with it. They need D, but I don’t have any big favorites besides Latu and maybe Verse. Just get the best players they can with their picks. Samuel ran a faster 40 than Franklin and Shakir was in the same range. They have some speed. More speed with size is needed.

I think 1 WR is what they will reasonably draft. If they keep all of their late round picks, then maybe a second Wr will be picked. They have 3 pretty good ones now in Diggs, Samuel and it appears an emerging Shakir. I’m sure they would like a bigger body to play the boundary and I’m guessing that’s what they will do. So, that would leave them with 4 that they would seem to like. They signed Hollins to play Special Teams and backup outside and they have Justin Shorter coming back to try to make the team. If they take a second Wr in the draft, that guy likely won’t see the field and would have to have value on special teams. You could be right, but I don’t think the cupboard is as bare as many seem to think.

I think Legette is much stronger in contested catches. I am not disagreeing with you on Walker’s athleticism and that his Combine was much better. FWIW, former GM Rick Speilman described Walker as a “Saturday pick”.

The expectation that they are obviously doing something wrong if they haven’t won a SB is, in my opinion, unreasonable. They have had one of the best teams in the league for several years. It’s unfortunate that KC is a dominant team. There have been many outstanding QBs that never won a SB and more that it took a long time to get theirs. It is very hard to win a championship and the idea that somehow one more big move is all that was needed is questionable. They might have been right on tack until Von tore up his knee….

That’s right, but they would get you near the top of the 4th which in practice isn’t much different than late 3rd. I do think moving up in later rounds where those late picks can move the needle up more than a couple spots is the best play. I don’t think you will get both a 2nd and 3rd this year for next year’s first. I think you’ll get a late 2nd.

I’m just not interested in trading next year’s picks. A key injury or falloff from the D and next year’s pick could be top half of the first. Trading that away this year, it will be valued as a late 2nd. If it was a team looking for franchise QB, I understand. Otherwise, I’m not interested. I’ll admit that doesn’t make me necessarily right, but seems a steep price for a wr when they need talent elsewhere as well.

I’m in agreement on Coleman at 28, would you consider him at 60 if you hadn’t taken one in the first? Walker was miserable at the Sr Bowl for sure, but he has athletic tools. Do you think he is fatally flawed? I know he dropped a bunch at Sr Bowl, he was better, albeit against no defense at the Combine. He would not be one of my top choices, but is he “developable”? I guess that you do have to consider that Odinze and Polk were there. Virtually every play that I watched of his (only 1 game), he was in the slot. I might not have picked his best game because I came away thinking “what is the buzz about him?”

I am very leery about Colman and he might last to striking distance of pick 60 if other teams fear his lack of speed and lateral movement. Isn’t McMillan 90% slot? Walker is possible in round 2. He really had a bad time at the Senior Bowl and that’s hard to forget, but he has size, great speed and hops. Can he catch, especially contested catches?

Who says they didn’t like those guys? They wanted a vet for a young Allen to aid his development. I don’t think you can conclude that they didn’t like Jefferson, Aiyuk, etc.

I think the pass rush will be worse without Floyd. They did at least re-sign Jones and signed a backup 1T to keep the Bills LBs who are on the smaller side clean. I also worry about competent depth at CB if either Douglas or Benford get hurt and there is no quality depth at S right now. I also think they need a good backup to Oliver at 3T. Of course, those might be addressed in FA before or after the draft, but they don’t have much cap room and I don’t think they can solve those issues through the draft if they use their first two picks on WR. As I said, I am conservative regarding trading future picks as they can come back to haunt you.

How many receivers are going to play? Diggs, Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir and two rookies (and Knox and Cook) would have to split the available targets. You are right that a 25 2nd and 60 probably gets them up to mid-2nd. To me, that’s a lot to give up when the defense could really struggle this year. You might be giving up a high 2nd and getting late 3rd value for the pick. I admit that I am future risk averse in these matters.

If they take one early and then a WR is BPA at their pick after 2nd, fine. Those 4th, 5th and later picks don’t move you up far in either 1st or 2nd and I would not trade next year’s picks to move up.

I think because the best receiver options will likely be gone by 60, lends weight to trading down out of the first - IF you can make a fair deal. Even trading up in the 2nd to about pick 40 would cost at least both late 4ths they have. I don’t think they will want to go from around pick 40 to the 9th pick in the 5th without a pick.

I think the receiver pool will be pretty shallow by 60. You might get guys like Polk, Baker or Rice there - maybe an outside shot at Coleman, but the better prospects will be snapped up by mid-round (at least that’s my $.02 worth).

What is EPA per route? Hill is about 20lbs heavier than Worthy distributed on a shorter frame.

Sorry, didn’t mean to imply that you said that. What I was trying to raise is the idea that maybe we shouldn’t rule out the possibility of drafting a “non-X” receiver early. I still strongly believe that they need a big body WR, but I’m asking do they really want to avoid guys that are mostly or partially slot or move guys who are excellent prospects on the basis of having Samuel and a promising but not fully proven Shakir. This is meant as a question to spark discussion not as me arguing one way or the other.