OldTimer1960

Boy, I've seen "elite" over-used and then there is this. Fitz is a stop-gap based on what he has shown to date in his NFL career. Is there a chance that he shows that he is better this year? Yes, and I'd be thrilled because I root for him. BUT, based on what I've seen so far, he isn't a good starter, let alone an "elite" NFL QB. Still, I don't think that they should bring in a good NFL backup. If Fitz gets hurt, the team will truly flail with Brown or Brohm at QB. Is that such a bad thing? They appear to have enhanced the D this offseason. With a year of experience last year's and this year's rookie defenders will hopefully gel and make a pretty good D. If the QBs suck (if Fitz gets hurt), the Bills will pick high again with the makings of a solid D already in place. Not bad, given that the team will not vie for a playoff spot in this division this year, no matter what (unless Brady and Sanchez break their legs in game 1 and a lot of other crap happens).

I've been fanatically following the draft for >20 years now and as best I can tell based on my favorite draft "scouting services" (ProFootballWeekly and GM Jr - Russ Lande was an NFL scout for Cleveland ant Stl.), the Bills did well and addressed needs. One thing that I've learned over the years of following the draft is that every team has a different draft board based on skills/traits coveted, schemes and needs (among other things). The draft prognosticators and websites seem to do a pretty good job of identifying the to 15-20 players and are OK up until a little into the 2nd round. Once the 2nd round starts, there are many "reaches", but who is right? The NFL teams that spend $millions scouting the players or the the draft services who scout their own players with significantly less resources or the purely "media" web sites who go by what they are fed by NFL "sources" and what other sites say? IMHO, I hated the idea that they might take Cam Newton. He might be great, but to me he has never demonstrated the skills that make great NFL QBs (fast decision making, hitting receivers that are open by an inch). I agree that he has ALL of the PHYSICAL tools and then some to succeed. I just don't think, based on the academic cheating and other off-field transgressions, that he is a slam-dunk to be a good NFL QB. To me, he is the anti-Ryan Fitzpatrick. Now, I don't think Fitz can lead this team to the Super Bowl w/o an all-time great D, but in terms of building a good team, I agree with the Bills' moves. I love the idea of Dareus at #3. He has the potential to significantly upgrade the Bills' run D. I expect that he will play 3-4 DE, so teams could run away from him, but at least the Bills will know that and can slant additional run help that way.. I am so-so on Aaron Williams in round 2. I know he was rated a borderline round 1 pick, but I am not sure where he plays. If he becomes an answer at CB or S, then this is a good pick. In round 3, I loved the Kelvin Sheppard selection. Given that the Bills staff coached him for a week, could they possibly know any more about a prospect? Round 4: Russ Lande liked DaNorris Searcy and S was a need position. He is reportedly big and has some coverage skills associated with smaller safeties. OT Hairston was someone who I liked based on ProFootballWeekly's analysis. I liked what I read about RB Johnny White's football temperament and special teams ability along with his production at RB with limited opps. Beyond that, I am intrigued by the Bills' last pick, Michael Jasper. That they even know who this guy is is a testament to the thoroughness of their scouting. He has the ht, weight, strength of a potential contributor and looks to have much better athleticism than a 380 pounder should. I think he is a long-shot, but has a chance to contribute in the next couple years, provided that he really sets his mind to it.

Every player and circumstance is unique. I think that it is good that they don't have a "basic blanket policy" against players who had one year of success. Now, I wouldn't have liked Newton at the 3rd overall pick. I happen to agree with you that he will be a major bust, but who is to say we are right?

I am generally not the optimistic type, but I think the defense can jump even higher than that this year. I think (hope*?) a DL of Kyle Williams, Dareus and Dwan Edwards with Troup, Carrington and Spencer Johnson rotating in will be pretty darned good. I still think that our LBs are a little weak, but I hope they resign Poz and that Kelvin Sheppard and Andre Davis can be a good combo next to him. At OLB, I think that Merriman (IF healthy) and Moats can be respectable. Hopefully, AntonioColeman and Danny Batten can help out, too. In the secondary, I hope they can re-sign Drayton Florence and that McKelvin steps up. McKelvin is a TREMENDOUS athlete and can be a good starting CB. I think McGee will start out at the other CB and Aaron Williams can help a lot (along with a respectable Reggie Corner). At S, I think that Byrd will be much improved with not having to focus on run D as much and I believe that George Wilson will be adequate at the other S with help from Bryan Scott and Williams.

I think this means more that they didn't like the QBs available rather than that they didn't think that they needed a longer-term answer than Fitz. I think that they are rightfully comfortable with Fitz for now and that they felt that there was significantly better value at other positions of need, so that is where they used their picks.

I think that the Bills want to resign Florence and I believe that they would be happy to resign Whitner if he is willing to play for reasonable money. I know that Whitner has shortcomings with regard to covering TEs, but maybe a lot of that is because he has to sell-out helping against the run all the time. That would likely have gotten him out of position to have good coverage. I am hopeful that the addition of Dareus and Sheppard will upgrade the run D to the point that the Bills safeties can be less worried about run support. Heck, maybe Jairus Byrd will be able to focus on pass coverage and bump up his INT total again. He clearly can make plays in pass defense - he demonstrated that big-time in 2009.

I think the explanation would go something like this: "We think that Kelvin Sheppard is a better ILB than Martez Wilson for the type of defense that we plan to run. We like his attitude, physical skills and his production. We got a first-hand look at the guy at work for a full week in the Senior Bowl practices and games and are very comfortable with our evaluation of him."

I really don't think that they avoided it because they think Maybin is the answer. They said a few times before the draft that they felt that they needed inside LBs more than outside. They did note that they were comfortable with Merriman's health outlook and like Moats. I also think that they didn't like the OLB players available after Von Miller. There was a lot of mixed opinion on Akeem Ayers and Justin Houston. For Houston, in particular, I saw reports that he didn't play all-out all of the time. If you look at the guys that they Bills did take, the vast majority are described as being self-starters, highly motivated, hard workers. I think those are the reasons that they passed on OLBs.

Some interesting prospects to consider: DE Christian Ballard (downgraded for failing drug test), Brandon Bair (overaged, but has good size to play 3-4 DE) NT: Ian WIlliams, Jerrell Powe (HUGE) ILB: Greg Jones (undersized, but productive), Casey Mathews (same as Jones) OLB Sam Acho (one of my favorites left), Mark Herzlich (THIS GUY IS GONNA MAKE IT), Jeremy Beal TEs: DJ Williams, Lee Smith (blocker), Luke Stocker (ht/wt), Virgil Green (great speed) OG: Clint Boling (very tough) RT Lee Ziemba, James Brewer, Jason Pinkston CB: Josh Thomas (from Buffalo and very talented)

Marcus Cannon has a serious disease (lymphoma?). He won't be picked until very late, if at all.

I have seen ProFootballWeekly had him as a 1st round grade, but it does scare me that he was Texas' nickel corner for half of the season this year. I am sure he is talented, but a nickel corner going at the top of round 2?

Not to rain on the parade, but NE will be the ones to reap the benefit of this and they will make out like bandits, as they always do. Once someone jumps up to get their favorite, there won't be as much of a market.

At LB, I like Jabal Sheard first (with the Wanstadt connection) and then Brooks Reed. I would give very strong consideration to Bruce Carter to play ILB also. I think Carter would have gone in round 1 had he not had knee surgery late last year. He could be a Thurman Thomas type value in round 2, even if the Bills might have to wait a year for his full recovery. All indications are that he will be healthy enough to participate in training camp. I will lay odds that if someone else doesn't take Carter early tonight that NE will grab him with one of their 3 freaking 2nd round picks. I could really get on-board with Colin Kaepernick or Kyle Rudolph, too.

What makes Fitz OK as a starting QB is his quick decision making and movement in the pocket. Dalton hasn't demonstrated either due to the offense he ran. Does he have those abilities? I don't know, but I'd rather not gamble on that.

I like Jabal Sheard first (with the Wanstadt connection) and then Brooks Reed. I could really get on-board with Colin Kaepernick or Kyle Rudolph, too.

Terrell Suggs was also a sack-machine in college, but I don't think Ayer's has been. Ayers had 4 sacks last year and only 3 the year before. If they take a LB, I prefer Jabal Sheard or Brooks Reed.

I don't like that I've read that Ayers doesn't always work hard and tries to coast by on his (not elite) athletic ability. I know that there are many different opinions, so what I've read may not be totally fair, but it came from one of the longest-tenured draft coverage sources that I think is very well connected with NFL scouts (ProFootballWeekly). Boy, I am not seeing that many great prospects at all. I think Kaepernick is a reasonable gamble, if the decide that they must take a QB. I don't like Mallet at all and I think Dalton is a career backup. They need LBs desperately, but I don't see any great ones. Of the group, I could be on board with Brooks Reeed, but I don't like Houston or Wilson (based on what I've read). I think this pick is too high for Dontay Moch. No OT appears worth taking this high. I'd be happy if they nabbed another DL, but I don't know if Christian Ballard is worth this much and I don't know if Marvin Austin can be trusted and if Austin can play effectively in a 3-4. Of the available players, I think Kyle Rudolph (TE) might be the best and the Bills sorely need a good TE. It would definitely help the offense to have a decent blocker and good pass catching TE, but I would prefer defensive help provided that the defender is not a flat reach (which I believe many of the LBs are).

None to get excited about, IMHO. Of those remaining, the only one I'd consider in round 2 is Kaepernick. I would still prefer another defender or an OT, if Carimi or Derek Sherrod are available. Beyond round two, you might as well wait until the 7th as you are just getting another camp arm. (Please don't tell me Tom Brady was a 6th rounder - I know).

Just my opinion, but Easly is a hope and a prayer and should not be a reason that the Bills don't draft another WR. He was a 4th round pick with good athletic ability and very little college production. Him being on the roster should have ZERO impact on whether the Bills take another WR.

There are maybe 5-7 players that should be considered at #3 based on all the reading that I've done (mostly ProFootballWeekly and GMJr/SportingNews along with NFL Network). My $.02 worth: 1. Marcell Dareus - I think he is a very "safe" pick in that he will almost certainly help the run defense significantly. He can play in both the 3-4 and 4-3 looks and will be valuable. 2. Von Miller - lots of production and athletic ability. I like Miller and think he can really help the pass rush and will be an improvement in run D, too. 3. Patrick Peterson - not sold on him being a top CB and I don't know if he can be an Ed Reed type Safety. He could be a dynamite kick returner, but #3 is too high for a great KR and OK-good CB or Safety. If the Bills pick him, they might have the best set of KR ever with Spiller, Peterson, McKelvin and McGee. Is Peterson another Rod Woodson? I don't know, but I thin 3 is too rich for him. 4. AJ Green - Looks to be a great WR with the work-ethic and talent to excel. The Bills don't have a glaring need at WR and w/o a QB and OL upgrade could Green fulfill his potential? 5. Cam Newton - I hate most everything I've read about him. I don't care how great an athlete he is or how strong his arm is. Too much off-field stuff and zero experience calling plays and passing in a pro-style offense. Can he do it? Who knows? But #3 is too high to gamble on a guy like this. 6. Blaine Gabbert - I like his athletic ability and reported intelligence and work-ethic, but his production (admittedly with a weak supporting cast) leaves a lot to be desired this high in the draft. 7. Nick Fairley - great athlete, bad body for this high of a pick. Does he play hard and train hard enough to be great? I don't think so. Just my opinion, but I'd rate these guys as: 1. Dareus and Miller (tie) 2. AJ Green in spite of much bigger needs 3. Patrick Peterson 4. Blaine Gabbert - at least he reportedly has the work-ethic and intelligence to maybe grow into a good starter. 5. Nick Fairley - top athlete, if they can light a fire he might be great. 6. Cam Newton - huge gamble on 1 year of production in a non-pro-style offense with off-field concerns to boot. Comments welcome!

I don't disagree that you can get an outstanding player at #3. All that I am saying is to adjust expectations for the 3rd overall pick. It is maybe a 60-70% success rate rather than a slam-dunk based on the last 10 years.

Thanks for the information NeverGiveUp. However, if the Bills blow the 3rd overall pick on Newton, I will indeed give up.

Below are the last several #3 overall picks. Looking at the list, I still strongly believe that the Bills' best strategy is to find a "safe" player with a "high floor". Of the last 10 3rd overall picks: 4 (40%) are flat busts/major disappointments: Tyson Jackson, Vince Young, Joey Harrington, Gerard Warren. I'd also add Braylon Edwards as a mild to moderate disappointment and the jury is out on Gerald McCoy. From ProFootballWeekly.com: Overview: The past decade has been good to players taken with the third pick in the draft. A couple of the league's top wideouts have been selected with the pick, and the Falcons got a pretty good quarterback in Matt Ryan. PFW found that the No. 3 pick, which is held by the Bills this year, has welcomed some top players into the league in the past 10 years. 2010: Buccaneers select Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy It took McCoy a while to start playing a high level, but it finally looked like he was putting it all together before a torn left biceps ended his season after 13 games. McCoy has a ton of potential and is expected to be a building block in Tampa Bay. 2009: Chiefs select LSU DE Tyson Jackson Jackson wasn't very impressive in his 14 starts for the Chiefs as a rookie and was unable to take a step forward in 2010. He started just three games last season, tallying 31 tackles and only one sack. 2008: Falcons select Boston College QB Matt Ryan Ryan has become everything an NFL team looks for in a franchise quarterback. He is constantly improving and is coming off the best season of his career in '10, in which he threw for 3,705 yards and 28 touchdowns. 2007: Browns select Wisconsin OT Joe Thomas Thomas has made the Pro Bowl each year he has been in the league and has never missed a start. At 6-6, 312 pounds, the strong, athletic tackle is extremely effective in pass support and can run-block just as well. 2006: Titans select Texas QB Vince Young A winning record as a starting quarterback (30-17) in the NFL is all Young has going for him. He clashed with former Titans head coach Jeff Fisher throughout his career and, even though Fisher is gone, he was told by the team that it was moving on without him. He has thrown as many touchdown passes as interceptions (42). 2005: Browns select Michigan WR Braylon Edwards Edwards had 80 catches for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns with the Browns in 2007, the lone season that he appeared to be a true No. 1 receiver. Struggles at the quarterback position didn't help his development before he was eventually traded to the Jets in October ’09. 2004: Cardinals select Pittsburgh WR Larry Fitzgerald Fitzgerald has emerged as one of the best wideouts in the game. He is a hard worker with tremendous body control, can catch the ball in traffic and does everything you would expect from a No. 1 receiver. His performance in leading the Cardinals to the Super Bowl in 2008 was historic — 30 catches, 546 yards and seven touchdowns in four games. 2003: Texans select Miami (Fla.) WR Andre Johnson The AFC's best receiver, if not the best wideout in the NFL, Johnson has the potential to be a Hall of Famer. He has produced five seasons of 1,000-plus yards — including three in a row — has 50 career TD receptions and is a five-time Pro Bowler. 2002: Lions select Oregon QB Joey Harrington Harrington had some ability, but his fragile ego got in the way of him becoming a dependable starter. He spent seven seasons in the league, making 76 starts, and threw 79 touchdowns and 85 interceptions. 2001: Browns select Florida DT Gerard Warren Warren, nicknamed "Big Money," was known for his athletic abilities early in his career but was never able to live up to expectations during his four seasons in Cleveland. He was traded to the Broncos for a fourth-round pick in '05 and has played for four teams in his career, including a solid season in New England in ’10.

With as much passing talent as Mallet has, if he isn't picked in round 1, you can bet that many NFL teams think he is a HUGE risk. A QB with his arm talent would be a top-5 pick if teams weren't very wary of his character/off field issues.

I think both of these guys will still go in the 2nd round, 3rd at the latest. Other players who have failed drug tests have still gone relatively high (no pun intended, but I think it's pretty funny!)