OldTimer1960

I agree. My post was meant to suggest that there more to evaluating players than looking at their college stats. I have seen many posts specifically pointing to Geno Smith's 71% completion rate as proof that he is clearly the best QB available in this draft. I was just giving an example of a player with similar college stats who hasn't set the NFL on fire.

I'd rather have the QB who put up these great stats in a 4 year college career: 1157 completions, 1645 attempts, 70.3% CAREER completion rate, 112 TDs, 45 s That was Colt McCoy's college career stat line. Now, I am not advocating picking him up, but I wouldn't be opposed. My point is, you don't find much better career stats than that, but yet he isn't a top flight NFL QB. Statistics can be deceiving. For comparison, Geno Smith's career stats are: 988 - 1365, 67.4%, 98 TDs 21 Ints Again, I am not saying that Smith isn't a better prospect than Colt McCoy was - he clearly has more physical talent, but McCoy's stats compare very favorably especially when you consider that Smith had 2 high level NFL WRs to throw to and McCoy did not.

In all seriousness, I have read all that I have been able to find and seen all the videos that I can find on the top rookie QB prospects and I am not sold on any of them. My plan would be: Acquire Kevin Kolb if you don't have to strangle yourself next year with salary cap problems or Matt Flynn if you don't have to give up more than a 4th. Draft Nassib, Manuel, Tyler Wilson or Glennon in round two (would be willing to trade 2nd & 3rd to move to end of round 1 for the one they like best). Draft OT Lane Johnson in round 1 and pair him with Cordy Glenn to make a dynamite pass blocking and run blocking OL. Center the offense on the run game, but the tackles provide good pass protection for whomever is the QB when they mix in a pass play. I admit this does not leave much ability to address LB, WR or TE, but if they like any of those QBs enough, it is worth the chance in my opinion.

George Blanda with YA Tittle as backup😄

So, who would you have hired as HC when they hired Gailey? I think that at that point, the talent level of the team was SO low (yes, much lower than now) that almost nobody wanted the job. Do you remember all of the "names" that said no? That wasn't Nix' fault, it was what he inherited. That the weak coach that he had to hire could not put together a quality assistant coaching staff led to lots of trouble, too. Agreed, it would have been great to hire a big name proven coach at that time, but none of them wanted the job for what the Bills were willing to pay (again, Nix doesn't control that). The QB position is brought up again and again. You can disagree with the plan, but Nix had a plan to build the rest of the talent base to at least a sufficient level before going after his long-term QB. Fitz was never more than a veteran caretaker in Nix' view and the contract he gave Fitz was not top-shelf starters money. Admittedly, they might have thought they could survive with Fitz longer than they actually could, but as a couple year stop-gap not an egregious error, in my opinion. Beyond that, if you want to criticize him for not taking Dalton or Kaepernick, I can accept that and agree to some extent, but few thought either were the immediate answer. Beyond them, what other QB would you have drafted? Russell Wilson is the only one that comes to mind and while it looks like he is going to be very good, we don't know that defenses won't find a way to combat him (using his lack of height against him by keeping him in the pocket, for example). If it was so obvious that Wilson was going to be as good as he has looked, believe me he'd have been drafted in round 1. Yes, Nix misjudged that, but so did all the other GMs. As for squandering draft picks after round 3, what do you think the league "hit rate" is on those picks? It is mighty low. Besides, he has had only 3 drafts, how do you know what the success rate will be when many think you have to wait 3 years after a draft to evaluate it?

OMG, everyone STOP already with declaring TJ Graham a bust after one season with a QB who didn't have the arm to take advantage of Graham's greatest asset (deep speed). Graham's 31 catches were better than Eric Moulds managed his rookie year. Now, I am not saying that Graham will be as good as Eric Moulds, but it is VERY common for rookie WRs to struggle for a couple of years before "getting it" at the NFL level. Graham may be a bust or may become a good contributor, it is way too early to tell based on last year. Some comparisons to Graham from the same draft: Brian Quick Rams' 2nd round pick (36 picks before Graham): 11 catches Stephen Hill Jets' 2nd round pick(26 picks before Graham): 21 catches Alson Jeffery Bears' 2nd round pick (24 picks before Graham): 24 catches Ryan Broyles Lions' 2nd round pick (15 picks before Graham): 22 catches Rueben Randle Giants' 2nd round pick: 19 catches Devier Posey Houston 3rd round pick (1 spot before Graham): 6 catches TJ Graham Bills' 3rd round pick 31 catches

Nix was not GM here when Whitner and Maybin were drafted. Yes, in hindsight, the Troup over Gronkowski pick hurts. However, Troup has been held back by a back injury that was hard to predict and Gronkowski had missed his last year of college with a back injury.

I like what I have seen and read about Dion Jordan and Barkevious Mingo. I have reservations as a one year producer, but Ziggy Ansah is intriguing as an outside rush LB in a 3-4. I'd take CB Dee Milliner in a heartbeat, if available. I could make a case for taking OT Lane Johnson and having him and Cordy Glenn be the bookends of a very good OL that could help the run-oriented offense and provide good time to pass for a rookie QB taken in the 2nd round.

I don't really think that Nix thought that Fitz was "the answer". I do believe that Nix thought Fitz was better than he actually is, but I suspect Nix all along was looking for a better prospect (and said so on multiple occasions). Fitz was a stop-gap and was paid like one. I know $7M/year is a lot in most views, but for NFL QBs it certainly isn't elite pay.

There are many here who think Buddy Nix is "an idiot" because he has blindly not addressed the QB position in his 3 drafts and because he gave Ryan Fitzpatrick a middle-of-the-road starting QB contract. I think that these criticisms are pretty much unfair. First, Nix's only drafts while GM were: 2010, 2011 and 2012. While there were 2 second round QBs and one 3rd round QB drafted over that span whom the Bills might have drafted, none of them were considered such obvious "sure things" that people at the time could have blamed Nix for not drafting them. Looking back the QBs who have been drafted over that time include: 2010: Sam Bradford - #1 overall, gone before Bills' selection Tim Tebow, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, John Skelton, Dan LeFevour and Tony Pike (many here wanted these last two). Nix did select Levi Brown in round 7 and I think it could be argued that he wasn't any worse than the QBs drafted ahead of him other than Bradford. 2011: Cam Newton went 1st overall. Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder went after the Bills selected Marcel Darius. None of those guys has shown that they are very good starting QBs yet. In round 2, Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick went after the Bills selected Aaron Williams. Now, I'll grant that it would be nice to have either of these guys (or at least it looks that way so far early in their careers). I think this is the only pick in the 3 years where you could legitimately lament that "Buddy blew it" and yet so did many other QB-needy teams. Other QBs from that draft included Ryan Mallett who some might like, but I don't see teams lining up to trade for him and TJ Yates who had a nice run in his rookie year when nobody knew who he was. 2012: Andrew Luck, RG III and Ryan Tannehill all went before the Bills' first pick Brandon Weeden and Brock Osweiler went after the Bills' pick and then Seattle took a chance on the "too short" Russell Wilson and appears to have struck gold - however note it is still early in his career. It is possible that defenses will find schemes to keep him in the pocket and make his height work against him. Nick Foles and Kirk Cousins are "folk heroes" on this board for very brief flashes of good play early in their career. Maybe they will become very good, but the odds are not in their favor based on past drafts. So, for those that can legitimately say that they KNEW that Kaepernick, Dalton and Wilson were going to be very good, I say you had a good eye. I don't however see where Nix passed on any great QBs in round 1. Those 3 from after round 1 fooled most or all of the NFL GMs, too otherwise they'd have gone in round 1 instead of Brandon Weeden, Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert.

A good arm without the other qualities that Fitz has could be much worse than what Fitz produced. There is a long history of QBs with very strong arms who have had worse careers than Fitz. It is hard to find a good complete QB that can be a good NFL starter - it isn't as simple as just finding someone with a stronger arm.

Encouraging info, but those achilles injuries are really bad news. They need their medical staff to clear him and to see him working out, running, catching passes before spending money on someone with that kind of injury.

There isn't much to like in FA QBs right now. I don't see any real drop-off between Ryan Fitzpatrick and T Jackson. I don't see any QB, other than Matt Barkley, who will not be pushed for playing time by Jackson this year. Jackson is really not that bad - he isn't a long-term starter, but he had similar potential coming out of college to most of the guys in this class. I think Jackson could start the first half or more of this year as he does have considerable experience and pretty good physical talent.

I agree. Milliner has the production and showed better than expected speed at the combine. Gilmore and Milliner with McKelvin covering slot receivers would help a lot against the Pats.

Interesting read on Matt Scott. I wouldn't gamble a pick before the 3rd or 4th on him, but he seems to deserve to be drafted. I don't think that you can reasonably pin all your hopes on him being the answer to your team's QB needs, but taking a shot and hoping for the best with him makes some sense. Just my opinion....

It depends on the disparity in team's grades/evaluations of players available. If the team "grades" the BPA significantly higher than their highest graded player at a position of need, then it would seem prudent to take BPA. If the grades are close, then the case can be made for drafting for need. With regard to the QBs and the Bills' obvious need, it is my opinion that if the team thinks any of the available QBs can be a good long-term starter, then they will take that guy at 8. If they don't feel very confident in that, then I think that they'll take their highest graded player with other position needs being considered. I could see a scenario where the Bills take OT Lane Johnson to give them two very good bookend tackles. They could then have Chris Hairston compete for the open OG spot. With the two good young tackles, they can focus on a run-based offense with Spiller and Jackson and provide a good pass blocking line so that they can take a shot with one of the remaining QBs in round 2. Mike Glennon might be very good if you give him a lot of time to pass. I think Nassib has as good a chance as any of the QBs in this draft of being good and EJ Manuel could look pretty good with a line like that in front of him. Last year's low sack total allowed by the OL was a bit of a mirrage as the very short passing game masked some pass blocking deficiencies (my opinion).

I have to respectfully disagree with the comparison between Russell Wilson and Matt Scott. Russell Wilson was a 4 year starter who played very well every year, with an exceptional senior year at a new school where he won the starting job, completed 73% of his passes for 33 TDs and 4 INTs. The only reason he lasted to the 3rd round was that he is 5" shorter than the "prototypical" NFL QB. Matt Scott was a 1 year starter who completed 60% of his passes for 27 TDs and 14 INTs his senior year in the traditionally weak-defensed PAC 10. Career Stats: Russell Wilson: 907-1489 11,720 yards 60.9% 109 TDs 30 INTs Matt Scott: 415-676 4921 yards 61.4% 33 TDs 19 INTs I am not saying that Matt Scott doesn't have at least some shot to become a good NFL player, but I have to wonder about a QB who could only win the starting job in college for 1 year. The NFL is a lot different from college and only the truly special college players even get a sniff of the NFL. Not saying it is impossible for him to buck the odds, but it strikes me as unlikely that a guy who could only start 1 year in college could forge a long-term starting position in the NFL.

There are others knocking Smith for accuracy and ball placement, too. "Climbing the draft board" doesn't necessarily mean it is "real". We don't know where NFL scouts had each of these guys after last season. "Climbing the board" is a bit of a media phenomenon. As the media hear bits and pieces from the teams about players, the media adjusts their "evaluations".

Who signed David Nelson?

It is two different propositions to say that: 1. There will be one or more QBs drafted in round 1 and 2. There is one or more QBs worth drafting in round 1 I have no doubt that at least Geno Smith and Matt Barkley will be drafted in round 1. They may even be one or two more QBs taken. The big question to me is will any of them turn out to be good NFL starting QBs?

There are many here that don't really have a true perspective on the probability of success in the draft. Even first round picks are not sure things - true for even the best franchises. While still high picks, in the 2nd and 3rd rounds you are *hoping* to find good starters and reasonably happy to find good contributors even if they don't start. You also have to realize that not all drafts are equal. In some years there are more good players than other years. The Patriots are one of the best run franchises and have had sustained excellent performance. Here is their draft from 2009 (a draft where they had FOUR 2nd round picks and 2 3rd round picks): Rnd 2: Patrick Chung (S) - pretty solid player who has started 30 of the 50 games he has played in. Rnd 2: Ron Brace (DT) - fringe player who has started 0 games the last two years with a combined 8 tackles those 2 years. Rnd 2: Darius Butler (DB): Has started 18 games in 4 seasons. Has not played for the Pats since 2010 Rnd 2: Sebastian Vollmer (OT): decent to good starting OT. Has started most of the games he has played. Rnd 3: Brandon Tate (WR): 37 catches total in 4 seasons. Has not played for the Pats since 2010 Rnd 3: Tyronne McKenzie (LB): 17 career tackles. I don't hear anyone calling the Patriots a horrible drafting team. This is reality in the NFL draft, sometimes you hit and sometimes you miss - even the best.

Interesting theory, but I think you are way over thinking it. The Bills have several key players coming up to be resigned next year including Spiller and Wood. They already have huge money invested in Mario Williams and some others. I think that they feel that the early FAs were too pricey vs their production and they are waiting for some asking prices to come down. Signing some average players to above average contracts takes money away from paying to keep their own guys (and finding a QB)

I agree that you have to be careful what you believe that teams say about draft prospects. I can certainly understand that Arizona may want to perpetuate the idea that there aren't good QBs available in hopes that one might be available at their pick. But I would think it would be in KC's best interest to hype the QBs in hopes of enticing a team to trade up with them.

Chief's GM John Dorsey said he doesn't think there is a QB worth a first end grade. Cardinal's coach Bruce Arians (who knows QBs), thinks he'll stick with Drew Stanton and said: "noe of them (QBs in the draft) wowed me." Buyer beware.

You do know that Geno Smith's hands are nearly as small as Tyler Wilson's, right? (9.25" vs 8.5") FWIW, I don't care much about the hand size issue. It is only one small thing to look at IMHO