BADOLBILZ

I think we are seeing that elusiveness with the ball in hand....but without real speed......doesn't yield the returns it did 10 years ago even. Back 7's are just too fast now. Real speed has emerged as a bigger factor........and real speed doesn't start until you get under that 4.4 mark now.

Has Toney run a 40 yet? All I can find is his recruiting 40 which was a laughable 4.69.

First.......pro football only exists to make money. And everybody that says they don't need more football watches more football if more football is on. Until that stops then the supply is not meeting the demand........it will be 18 games by 2023 most likely. Which is more advertising opportunities for things that you might see as more of a need..........like different alcoholic drinks, chicken sandwiches and pizza concoctions. This is how real business actually works. Keep it coming NFL.........1 more week to tailgate is a need for me.

It's funny though that there is this perception that wear and tear STARTS to accumulate at the pro level. Between Harris and Etienne we are talking about almost 1600 touches already between carries, catches and returns. That's a lot of collisions at a very high level of college football. Alabama and Clemson might have already squeezed out a lot of that first contract production. And perhaps that's one reason why so many first round RB's turn into outright disappointments or busts. They are in an evaluator's blind spot.........too productive in college to ignore.......if you squint and tilt your head they may seem like a worthwhile risk at 30.........but the impact of their existing mileage is hard to quantify.

I wouldn't call it a good piece. Meh. Too many omissions. He thoroughly presents the pro-drafting a RB in round 1 side........which is admittedly a small/weak argument so it's easier to cover..........and undersold just how bad of a proposition drafting RB's in round 1.......especially after the top 10 picks......has been. And he almost entirely omits the opportunity cost of taking a RB. Things change FAST in the NFL........the Bills aren't totally set up everywhere for 5 years........they could be absolutely desperate for help on the lines or secondary in 2 seasons and not have enough money to address those key positions with quality......we just don't know. That's why you should treat the early part of the draft to build the long term foundation of your team..........and RB's are never that. The Chiefs drafted CEH.........that is sold as something of a win..........but in reality he basically performed like Devin Singletary when he got the ball last season.........they tried to upgrade on him with LeVeon Bell(which failed because Bell was shot). I don't think Harris or Etienne are better prospects than CEH.........but fwiw, Etienne is spun as wildly productive and durable...........it's not mentioned how his ypc dropped from 7.8 to 5.2 in his senior year.......and if that's maybe because he's already had well over 800 touches on his smallish frame. Also, he actually sucks at KOR's.........maybe because 4.44 is pretty fast for a RB nowadays.....but not REALLY exceptionally fast for a skill position. I think a big part of this issue with these RB's is something I've already touched on..........they AREN'T the athletes that once populated the position. A guy like Etienne is probably nothing more than a reserve NFL RB in the 80's and 90's. Guys like that couldn't take the pounding and keep producing. Gaughan wants to sell the idea that what you sacrifice long term with RB's.......you make up with concentrated impact. But in reality even the Zekes and Barkley's and McCaffreys are probably only going to give you 3 exceptional years out of 5. And those are the "HR", generational types. The track record outside those types that are taken in round 1 is abysmal.

Generally speaking the early rounds produce a much higher % of star players than the later rounds. It's just much easier to get high quality play from mid-late round running backs than it is late rounders at positions like QB, Pass Rushers, LT, CB........ And when you have a need at THOSE positions..........you really have a need........and they cost A LOT more to acquire in free agency.........if you can even find ones in UFA that aren't full of red flags.

In 2019 USA Today ranked the top running backs selected in round one in the past decade: 16. Jahvid Best 15. David Wilson 14. Trent Richardson 13. CJ Spiller 12. Ryan Matthews 11. Doug "muscle hamster" Martin 10. Rashaad Penny 9. Josh Jacobs (3.9 ypc last year....yuck) 8. Leonard Fournette (a career sub 4.0 ypc in a league where the average ypc is 4.2) 7. Sony Michel (only season he stayed healthy had 3.7 ypc) 6. Melvin Gordon (4 of his 6 seasons below 4.0 ypc) 5. Mark Ingram (long, solid career as a rotational back but not a playmaker) 4. Todd Gurley 3. Saquon Barkley 2. Christian Mccaffrey 1. Ezekiel Elliott Only the top 4 have been elite RB's..........and they weren't just first round picks......they were all picked with top 10 overall picks. And Gurley flamed out at the end of his age 24 season and Barkley is now surgically repaired after putting in two very good seasons. Fournette, Richardson and Spiller were also top 10 picks.......so even being THAT certain that the RB will be great isn't anywhere close to a lock. The rest of that list could have been undrafted and nobody would be astonished that they weren't selected. So who are all these "in most situations" guys that prove that anywhere in the 1st round is where you get superstar RB's? Last year CEH was the RB that was selected in round 1.........go back and compare his numbers to Singletary year 2......very similar.....(and note that Singletary year 1 averaged 5.0 ypc).

Yep, settle it........tell everyone you have a mental disorder that traces back to only being able to get network television channels with trashy talk shows as a kid. Then announce that he is receiving spiritual counseling from that reformed tv preacher that was screwing the hockey player back in the 80's..........fans love a comeback story.

You pointed out some good current RB's that went in round 1...........I pointed out a greater number of dynamic current RB's that went from the 3rd round all the way to being undrafted. That is proof that you can get top quality RB production anywhere in the draft. You can't tell me that the difference between McCaffrey and Kamara/Jones is "huge". That's just not true. And Moss and Singletary don't actually suck........they are pretty good backs but they were drafted for an offense that was under center with a lot of 12 personnel, sometimes a fullback.......more of a power run blocking scheme. But when Allen broke out last fall.........they became more of a spread offense, shotgun predominant, zone blocking team..........which better suits backs that are quicker, faster 1 cut types...... like Matt Breida. With so much of the NCAA running spread offenses I like the odds of a good scouting staff being able to identify players that fit the system well anywhere in the draft.

First, you are mixing generations of RB's. The Marshall Faulk type athletes don't even play RB anymore. They make the big money playing CB or WR or S. You can't draft a RB in round 1 anymore and assume he's going to ball out for 8-10 years. As the level of athlete has decreased 26 has become the new 30. Second........the best all purpose RB's in the league are a hodgepodge of guys like McCaffrey(1st round), Kamara (3rd round) Aaron Jones (5th round) and Austin Ekeler(undrafted who caught 92 passes in 2019). The Bills need speed.......the fastest RB's in the NFL over the past 3 seasons are probably Raheem Mostert and Philip Lindsay.......also both undrafted. I think you should take a closer look at who the best RB's in the NFL are. And then eliminate guys like Zeke and Derrick Henry who need an offense tailored to them or at least need the ball handed to them 20+ times per game to have their full impact........because that doesn't make sense with a Josh Allen at QB. I don't know if there is even a "kind" of RB you can only find in round one.........but what I do know is that the kind the Bills need you can find all over the draft and in UDFA. It's proven.

Yes Shaq was a good example of that. The $20M+ positions going forward are QB, Pass Rusher, LT, CB, WR1...........if there isn't one of those that your organization can envision becoming a cornerstone player at one of those positions.........trade back. In the unlikely scenario where you can't project a very good prospect at any of the key positions, work your way down the list. RB is literally last on the offensive/defensive positional value spots.

I think using the term "weapons in the passing game" makes it seem like the returns in giving RB's touches are much greater than they are.

It's not a nerve.........it's just something we go thru every 2-3 draft seasons on here......there is always a different rationale........"the winning mindset" was a creative one......points for that. Me pointing out how nonsensical drafting a RB is in round 1 is just part of "the process". First of all.......the further we get from the regular season the further removed fans get from what actually works on the field. And I'm not saying that Beane won't make the mistake of misallocating a valuable asset.........he's made his share of mistakes like reaching past better players at more important positions to fill perceived needs at lesser ones with the likes of Cody Ford, Singletary, Moss etc. But I do think that they are more likely to pick up a player at a more important position. The financial pinch they are in will really limit their ability to re-stock much more important positions in the coming years. And the idea that "well a RB can help right away and if you get 5 top years out of them....." just doesn't actually pan out because as the position has become devalued so has the overall quality of athlete playing it. With less than a full handful of exceptions......the lead backs of today would have been the Kenny Davises of yesteryear...........fine for a short period of time.......but not up to the task longer term. Which is fine..........it's a passing league.........Josh Allen produces 8 yards on average every time he passes the ball.........Jim Brown couldn't make it worthwhile to take the ball out of his hands. The difference between top backs and guys like Singletary and Moss is less than a measly half yard per carry.

Name one RB that the Bills passed on that went in round 1 that you regret missing on. Go back 30 years to 1990 if you'd like. It doesn't happen. And no, the 30th pick is not almost a 2nd round pick.........having the 5th year option alone is a HUGE distinction.........especially if that player turns out to be someone who can man one of the "$20M+" positions (QB/PassRusher/LT/CB/WR1). Wasting your top pick on a RB when you are about to enter a period where you are going to be tight to the cap for the foreseeable future is not so much a "winning mindset" as it is a shortsighted one.

I was unaware that there was so much hate about the Bass pick..........that seems a bit exaggerated on your part. I liked using a late pick on a talented kicker.........late round picks are fair game for any position. As for getting a true game changer for 5 years..........that's a lot to ask of a RB nowadays. Zeke Elliott was IMO the best RB prospect of the past decade of drafts...........and he's been the best producing RB selected in round 1 in that span........and has now actually played in the NFL for 5 years..........and still in 2 of those seasons handing the ball off to him has been a less-than-league-average per-carry proposition. The odds are more in favor of that RB ending up producing like Fournette or Sony Michel than they are getting 3 "game changer" seasons out of 5 like Elliott. The era of RB's you could expect to be good every year until they turned 30 seems to have ended with guys like AD and Shady..........the position doesn't pay so the best amateur athletes just don't say there. Instead each draft class of RB's seems to be a field of players like Etienne who don't have the size or length to project to a more premium position. Today's starting RB's are the athletes that would have been the backup RB's 20 years ago.

This is the equivalent of a futures contract signing..........I will be a bit surprised if he even makes it to camp.

Who is the last RB you regret the Bills passing on in the first round? You can deny every other metric that tells you that drafting a RB in round one is foolish...........but the fact that we can't even cherry pick one guy who was a consensus high draft worthy RB this century that the Bills passed on says it all. All successful organizations have systems in place to limit mistakes. Systems defy the "open mind to everything" mindset that leads a talented rostered Raiders team to select a kicker in round 1.

If he could get back to his 19 sack level of play, yes that would be the best pass rusher they've had since Bruce. I would really be surprised if they brought him in.......he's got a lot of baggage and is more of a 3-4 OLB. He started out great then was ineffective for most of the season but the fact that Dallas doesn't seem to want him back at any price..........makes me wonder if he wasn't slipping off the field last season.

Yeah he was a big time athlete in that draft that at times was mocked as a first rounder. Carolina might have held him in high regard so getting a look. Or maybe just leverage to get Marlowe to take the $1M deal.

Actually I have liked all of Beane's first round picks..........which is easily a first wrt a Bills GM. I do think he seemed to learn a lot working for Dave Gettleman..........a lot of what not to do. And ol' Gettlenutz is just the guy to keep an open mind like you and select a RB or offensive guard in round 1 and call a loss a win.😉

Honestly I don't want to see them take a RB in any of the first 3 rounds. Frankly, the Singletary and Moss picks have both turned out regrettably...........and it's not that they are even bad players........it's just that the amount of impact you need from a RB to justify passing on harder to fill positions is rather substantial. "Who offers the most upgrade" probably shouldn't carry much weight in a $20M decision(which all first round picks should be considered). Sammy Watkins offered a greater upgrade to the WR position than Khalil Mack or Aaron Donald did to the Bills DL.

If you want to call siding with the math "entrenched".........so be it..........you aren't going to regret passing on a RB in round one in this day in age. Your first round picks are your primary chance to find players at high value positions that you won't get an opportunity to acquire otherwise. The draft is an ongoing process of team building..........it shouldn't be treated like an unrelated event from the prior year and the year prior to that........ Free agency is an event. That's where you address your needs in that moment. Beane seems to understand that better than any GM the Bills have had.........but those shiny RB's and off-the-bus starters(like Cody Ford) are very alluring.

BPA is a term rendered bogus by those that have turned it around selectively to make an excuse for the extremely dubious act of drafting RB's early. BPA should entail the value of the position, the difficulty to fill that position and the expected longevity. There is not an imaginary line after "all regular offensive and defensive players" at which point special teams players aren't factored in. There is a scale that starts at QB and gradually decreases in value down to a very low number at RB.....which is the last stop before you get to the kicker, punter and long snapper. The game just doesn't lend itself to putting a lot of value in the RB position..........and as such the quality of athletes and longevity at the position has also declined relative to other positions. It's outright foolish to draft a RB in round 1.

What's funny is when the team signs a guy for just over league minimum.........and then a bunch of fans say the team doesn't need to use a first round pick on that position now.

I didn't trust him to not fumble the ball.........but he should have gotten more chances. Breida on the other hand is a guy who can legitimately hit 22mph in the open field..........which puts him up there with anyone aside from Mostert. RB's are still a at least a half dozen for a dime........but good pickup by Beane.