thurst44

Wouldn't it be funny if a Tremaine Edmunds thread turned into a thread about everything else!

This is not meant as a defense of Maybin by any means (I voted for Mike Williams b/c of higher pick but thought about choosing Maybin for a second); however, I'm not a fan of revisionist history for exaggeration. It's possible what you say is true, and of course reporters' mocks and front office opinions aren't always the same, but Maybin was a 1st round pick in pretty much every mock draft at that point. He had boom-or-bust potential, but had he dropped to the 3rd that would have been huge news.

You might very well eat those words as I doubt he's as easily replaceable as you think given how the defense plays when he's out. We'll see. More importantly though, why does a joyous moment for the team have to turn into half the posts beating up on Edmunds.

This does not have any impact on whether they sign Edmunds or not. We knew this was coming, and it's a very reasonable deal and with six years petty much has to have some malleability, and by the time its larger sums kick in (if Beane's past is prologue), the salary cap will be around 300m. I'm not going to vigorously defend Edmunds except to say he's been the MLB and captain/leader of a defense that's been top 3 3/4 of the time he's been here, and the defense looks significantly worse when he's out or playing hurt. There's a good chance he's much better than most people here think. We'll see what Beane and McDermott think as they're the ones who truly know his value to this system. If they don't extend and draft an LB later this month, that would be a sign he's on the way out. However, I would not be a bit surprised if they extend him and if it's a long contract but in the 10-12m range. I also would not be entirely stunned if they don't. As for Poyer, I don't buy that he could be odd man out b/c despite getting deserved All Pro status this year, he's still past 30 and at a position that does not get as many premium contracts. It might be up to him--at times he's been an ambassador for the team and at other times he's been quite chippy with fans on social media. However, it's likely they could still extend Poyer in a fashion that wouldn't kill the future cap, and it wouldn't be likely to be that long of an extension.

Well, then, if Tre says he's now switching his jersey to 6, I'll really think Gilmore is coming back to Buffalo. Ok, not really, but I'd be fine with signing him (as long as we also draft a CB in the first 3 rounds.

Personally, I love this. Was kind of ambivalent about it before watching a bunch of games from last year and Jones was just up at the return man so so fast and with such fury. I love running it back with the same ST and I've said it before here, having watched the 2000 Bills and their atrocious ST (last in all four cats) and hearing about what happened to the 2010 Chargers, I'm more than fine with them spending the money to make sure ST is tight.

To throw to... Taiwan Jones. I did not even realize it was him in that game (by that point was pretty drunk and in shock) until about six months later when another fan friend said "did you realize that it was...?"

In some ways it got easier to get the #1 seed as much of the action was in the West who will have to play 6 games against each other, while arguably the Bills improved in comparison to the rest of the East. The Jets had a good offseason, but they are way off and Z. Wilson is a shrug.

Having lived through the Ronnie Jones 2000 debacle special teams unit, I'm fine with putting some of the cap on Special Teams. Also Neal does get on the field, maybe not that often, but he did hold down one of the best pass catchers in the NFL last year. Also, 10 years later, the San Diego Chargers had the number one offense and number one defense and missed the playoffs... with the worst ST in football. This Jon Bois video is an interesting watch.

They already released Klein, so that gets it to 1.5m over. Beasley is 6.1m right there. So, that's 4.6 under. Feliciano is 3.3m, that's 7.9m under, Haack is 1.2, that's 9.1m, Star post-June is 4.1m, so that's 13.2m, Cody Ford 1.5m (honestly, I'd keep him and see if he has a good pre-season and maybe get something in trade), so that's 14.7m, Andre Smith is 1.1m, so that's 15.8... and those are all cuts that other than arguably Beasley, don't really hurt the core team. There's still a lot of restructures and extensions and salary payouts possible, many of them clearing 10m each. Based on OTC, I was pretty easily able to get down to over 70+ under. DWill gets you under 20m if he doesn't agree to restructure. Now, as many have mentioned, you don't want to do all of those b/c they will hamper you for any 2023 or 2024 moves. Also, some of them would require the player agreeing. And OTC doesn't know everything so it's not much better than Madden to a degree. Also, Beane has his own plans and may want to be prudent. This is a team that's a Super Bowl contender if not favorite to make it there even if we do nothing but just draft at our current spots, and have a lot of players who could make huge improvements next year. As for comp picks, as much as I'd like some players back, there's a scenario I'd love where they make a couple big signings, but let the rest walk and Trubisky and Wallace could conceivably bring back pretty decent comps.

You make a lot of good points, and there is a limit of what you can do, but your numbers MIGHT be off (and that's not to mention the fact that we don't know what the cap will be next year and it's expected to rise by quite a bit), and while this year's signings, rookies, and restructures will move it up, you omit the fact some of the cuts THIS year will also bring it down. Star, Feliciano would be over 10m less against cap as I understand it and if we cut DWil, that's another 7m potential. OTC had 2022 at 6.6m over before Beane confirmed that as his numbers today. They have next year at 53m under and given the almost definite cuts, that's 64m. Yes, that will be eaten up by new contracts and restructures will also add to it. They're not going to be a ridiculous player, but they could make a few moves, even a "splash" move (whatever that means), and likely still be in shape to restructure and have enough to hold on to most if not all of the players you mention. Extending Oliver, since we just picked up his 2023 season, would in fact likely significantly LOWER our cap.

Indeed... although other than the way he started it off, a lot of it is not that crazy... maybe the Metcalf parts. And I guess the trade up in draft, but as much I know many people would scoff at moving way up in the draft for a non-QB, if Davis is as advertised he could really be the key to unlock the elite defense in this team, even benefitting the play of Edmunds, Oliver, and maybe Milano.

I'd usually be inclined to say this Ted Knight meme would be correct, but just a weird (could be wrong) feeling that this year Beane's plan is a bit different. Usually Beane has made a point to say don't expect any big signings. Has he done that this year? I did make a note of him not dismissing the Rams way of business (although I know he won't and hope he doesn't go full-Rams, even if it worked out for them).

Ok, well that was a pipe dream anyway, and in my final overblown and ridiculous off-season plan, I was going with Christian Kirk who played half his snaps in the slot, seems to be good friends with Allen, is still young and hasn't been great, but has been OK. He'd be a solid replacement for Beasley.

I agree that Adams' contract might be off the charts. As for the cap, between the Schoen comment and that guy who did the analysis of caps based on their mutability and had the Bills actually in slightly above average shape (wish i could remember what he called the metric so i could find it), I suspect our cap hit is not quite as bad as it looks. On OTC, I looked into what was the most I could do without leaving a major hole save for CB2. I was able to get over 70m. Now, you obviously don't want to do all of that, but cut/trade all the usual suspects, restructure Morse, DWil, extend Diggs and Edmunds (presuming Beane/McD like him better than most here and unless he demands too much), and you can be at 30-40m fairly easily w/o kicking too much into the future. Then you have payouts of Dawkins and Tre's this year schedule if you see a FA worth it. I'd actually like to see about keeping Hyde and Poyer through 2024 as they show no signs of slowing, could easily last to their mid-30s at their positions, and we have no one in the wings to replace. Yes, I get that kicking the can could be dangerous with Allen's cap hit going from 16m-40m, but the cap is expected to spike that year with the TV contract. Personally, as much as I think this team is a SB contender, maybe even favorite, even if they make zero moves (including signing no FAs of their own) as their only real hole would be CB2 (and if you believe in next gen stats, Dane Jackson should be given at least a shot) and I guess you would have a hole at edge rush as the older guys were responsible for a lot of pressures, and they have a lot of young players going into their prime, I'd love to see a balance of a few big signings. I'm usually not a fan of going for comp picks, but I suspect that might have been a part of the Trubisky plan, so I'd be fine with a few huge FAs, trade up in draft if possible (flame me, i deserve it on this one, but i would weirdly love it if we could move up as far as possible in 1st and 2nd round, and hold on to one day 3 pick to save for that generational kick holder) and then reverse course in 2023 with a ton of picks to fill in. This would all be contingent on planning to have money to extend Oliver and for Rousseau if he hits (or whoever of the three that hits), so if they can't make that work. Moving on from Edmunds would change a lot of this math. I really do hope they do not as as much as so many hate on him, the defense has been appreciably worse as a whole when he's been hurt or playing hurt. As for actually answering the question, Jones is growing on me--and would be a nice hometown (area at least) story. I'm surprised how much I don't hate Gronk as an idea. And I do love the idea of Godwin (especially after how he gutted us this year), he's probably too expensive even given my rosy/optimistic cap space outlook. I'd love a trade for Mack or Hunter. The former is more of a sugar high want--it might not be the best move at this point. Realistic if my 30-50m is possible: I'm gonna go Jones (15m hit--try to move big cap hit to 2024), CB Donte Jackson (8m hit), Christian Kirk (10m?), Gronk (5m), then stick to released or post June 1st guys and maybe load up on 2023 draft picks (and i feel slightly queasy for caring about that).

It would be, but oddly, Chris Godwin might move the needle more with his slot receiving prowess and could be slightly cheaper.

I was saying Boooo-easley!

Before this year, it would probably have been your guys. Without even getting into the politics, Rodgers has annoyed me and the whole him and Adams making a big deal about not wanting to play for the team--I just can't root for that. Eagles fans are awful. Hated the Cowboys before living through SBs 27 & 28. Obviously not the Bucs--even if I wasn't sick of Brady, they just won last year. If I hadn't had to see Hopkins catching that ball so. many. damn. times. last year, maybe the Cardinals, but I also don't find them a particularly interesting team. The Saints would be lucky to be there. I'm weary of the league trying to make Los Angeles happen--I do like (or respect) Aaron Donald, however. I suppose the 49ers. It's been forever since they have won and I have no particular disdain for them--and would love to finally see Chris Berman's prediction come into reality. Using that logic--I'd love the Bills to face the Bucs or Cowboys... either way we could win a Super Bowl while exorcising a demon. And, again, the 49ers, just because of the whole '90s Berman prediction thing.

Every one but the three. There were only three drives where they made it past the 50. There were eight drives. Three were 3 & out. Two were INTs where McCorkle was on his own side of the field. Two were drives where the Pats had to fight for everything with multiple 4th downs. The other was not as hard-fought, but it still took a lot of time off the clock. Seriously, did you guys watch a different game? I'll say it again. We just beat the Pats handily in their home stadium and allowed them exactly our usual amount of yards which is first in the league and stopped one of the top teams in the NFL cold on 5/8 drives. If you thought "they would have scored" on five drives that were 3 & out or ended in an INT, well, that's on you.

Is this a joke thread? We just beat the Patriots in Foxboro and held them to well below the yardage average for both them and the NFL. They are still the #1 defense by many metrics, including the one commonly used in the NFL. The D held the Pats to 3 & out on first drive, and definitively so, giving the offense the chance to take the lead. The only three drives the Pats had were about as far from easy as possible. Defense gets an A from me. It did what it needed to do in one of the unfriendliest environments in the NFL, and held the team under the average amount of yards and points and never put the team in any serious danger of losing. Criticism is fine, but why are some people coming here to negatively post against the team after a win over the Patriots in Foxboro that puts the Bills in a spot where they have an insanely good chance of winning the division? I'll never get this mentality. Also, how in the world is the Bills defense was terrible anyone's main takeaway from this game.

I think that's the point. Anything can happen, realistically, b/c those are the teams playing three teams who are at a similar level. Then again, it was just kind of a pointless stat to add, b/c given the Jags beating our team, the Lions beating the Cardinals and almost beating the Ravens, the Texans beating the Titans and almost beating the Patriots, it's clear anything can happen this season and all of them are realistically 0-3 wins the way things are going. The other point is the Bills have arguably the easiest path as the only team facing two opponents with losing records in their final three games.

The Patriots spotted a 22-9 lead to the Texans late in the 3rd quarter earlier in this year during their run and barely won, and that's the Texans. Nobody had beat TB in TB in over a year until a team that we beat handily just did. TB owned the Bills in the first half. The Bills made them look foolish in the second and again should have won if not for terrible ref'ing (and that's not my fan bias talking, it's most of the media). But, yes, ref'ing happens and you have to overcome it. However to call it embarrassing to almost pull off a historic victory against the defending Super Bowl champions against the GOAT QB who is not slowing down... well, I just don't get that. The funny thing is after the game, I was feeling down and was surprised that my usually much more negative friends were raving and excited about it. However, I never felt embarrassed after the game (at halftime, sure). I was proud of their resilience. The Jaguars loss was embarrassing. The Colts game, maybe, but I saw that one coming in... Taylor hot, Edmunds and Star out, Milano hurt, Bills playing lacklusterly coming in, Colts playing with passion and seeking revenge for playoff game. The Patriots--well, it was a weird game, but I'd entertain the thought. However, the TB game--no!

The Titans had almost 300 yards without Derrick Henry against the Patriots. I'm not entirely optimistic, but our run D has not been bad all season. Up until the Pats game, the only RBs to have more than 50 yards against us were the two RBs who were on pace for two of the greatest rushing seasons in history (edit: ok, I looked it up and forgot Carlos Hyde's whopping 67 yards). Also, the last two weeks, we were able to stop the run after the D had been on the field for a LONG time. That's the hallmark of a good defense. The Bills have talent, but something does seem off. If you asked me to pick this game, I'd probably pick the Patriots as it's in NE, they've been on a better run. However (1) the Bills still have a great team that can explode at the right time and have by stats the #1 defense which impressed me beyond stats the last two weeks by what they were able to conjure up after taking a punch and without their best player. (2) We have no idea what teams are going to be out there. All of NE's WRs could be out. Whatever your opinion on the pandemic and/or rules, both exist and players have been being crossed off eligibility left and right. I have faith in this team, while noticing some fundamental things that have gone wrong and while most could be temporary, it is hard to see the o-line coming together any time soon (Dawkins could improve as health improves, Brown is more-than-likely a star in the making, and not sure where the DWil of '17 and '20 went, but something just seems rotten in the line). I'm not convinced that the Patriots are such a dominant team as they were being hyped. The book is still out on Mac (but it's a good start), Judon is a beast who has our number, and JC Jackson is weirdly underrated, Hunter Henry has moments of Gronk-like unstoppability and Belichick has earned his legendary status, but they still strike me as more of a hodge-podge of aging-out Pats lifers and meh mercenaries than the fearsome team they were in the Brady years. I'm not saying that I don't see the potential for disaster and there's not a part of me that can feel the 4pm gloom already--but I don't think it's preordained, nor do I think the Bills are not one of the better teams in the NFL even if they have not played like it over the last nine games. Also, this is a very weird season.

Fine. Look, I get it about LAMPs (and had a reaction to SN but nothing specific and think I may have even mixed it up with him/her at one point in time--more aren't you usually negative?) and am not one to start threads (it's like tattoos, if i saw something worth it, maybe), but this one seemed benign and easy to ignore. But then, I could have ignored your comment too, so it is what it is, I guess.

Did anything I wrote say that the O-line is not a problem? However, that's another example of something that could go right. Brown had one of the worst games a player can have. Dawkins was out and he has been up-and-down (this is not just me saying it, this is re-watching him on almost every down) and could come back healthy and have a good game. Darryl Williams was great in 2017 and 2020 so he has it in him. The line's something that needs to be addressed and they probably should change coaches and I'm all for purging all but the tackles and maybe Morse if he restructures, saving money and seeing how the draft falls, but that's another story for another day. I wasn't even arguing that "wake up calls" are valid. It's just lashing out at the OP for having positive thoughts felt a bit extreme, while dismissing the fact that football tends to be volatile and unpredictable and teams' fortunes can shift suddenly is to ignore the history of football and especially this season. The 1-win Lions just beat the #1 NFC Cardinals last week and it wasn't even close.