thebandit27

Blame the OP then, don’t come at someone whose opinion you didn’t bother to read with a snarky response to a conversation in which you weren’t involved.

Yep. I trust that Josh learned a few things today. Namely that he can’t let the flow of a big game force him to try to make plays that aren’t there. I similarity hope that the front office leaned that “good enough” at WR and TE simply isn’t good enough. You can’t have their WRs making big plays and ours failing to simply drag a foot that gives you a 1st and goal at the 3, dropping a TD pass that he’s got 2 hands on, or whiffing on a block in OT that easily sets up a GW FG.

maybe it’s time to read the thread before you say silly things

Such a valuable contribution—a real fresh take on a topic that nobody has discussed ALL WEEK.

Ho him. Another year, another clear indication that this organization cheats perpetually and doesn’t get serious discipline.

Yes, totally disingenuous including in this very post. I made it clear that the highest drop rate will almost certainly have a trickle down effect on other stats like YPA etc. You’ve decided to completely ignore that and pivot to other stats. It’s also nothing short of intentional misrepresentation to categorize the number of drops as “Zay Jones dropped a pass or two”. No offense, but I no longer believe that you’re really interested in a factual discussion on this topic. EDIT... You know what? That was too strong a reply. My apologies. This discussion isn’t going anywhere and we should be more focused on the positive today. Go Bills.

Aw crud, you’re right Thanks Yeah I got his record crossed up with O’Brien’s

Two things: 1) I didn’t say it was insignificant; I said that simply referring to rank without contextual reference implies a much greater difference than what the actual numbers show 2) This is as disingenuous as it gets. You’re really implying that having double the drop rate—something that is entirely beyond his control—doesn’t adversely affect Allen’s performance metrics? That’s total horse manure.

True. Do you suppose that such a humongous drop rate might have a trickle-down effect on stats like YPA, TD %, INT%, and CAY/PA? That was more my point in citing that statistic.

My 14 month old has her own TD dance that she broke into spontaneously after Josh hit Smoke on the bomb in NE****** Cutest thing I’ve ever seen

Gah, ok, I misinterpreted it then.

I guess I thought that was the point: that Allen and Watson has such markedly different college experiences that it’s not a valid comparison. As for the case, I think I’ve been clear on my position: right now it’s Watson, but it’s a lot closer than some folks imply.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm There’s a fair bit that you’re leaving out: That apparently huge difference between 9 and 20 in on-target percentage amounts to 3%. Not exactly the chasm you’re implying. Same goes for bad throw percentage; the difference is 4%. The difference in CAY/PA is half a yard. Now for the stuff that you didn’t mention: Allen suffered a drop rate of 7.2%—highest in the NFL. Watson’s was 4.4%. WR play matters. Both QBs faced the same number of hurried despite Watson having more attempts; Allen was also hit 4 more times. OL play matters. Even though their respective efficiencies on RPOs are very similar, Josh had less than half of Watson’s combined run/pass attempts from RPO plays. Play calling matters. I find it rather interesting that you left out a significant measure of context after calling me out for cherry picking/obfuscating (actually it was for being “strawmanny” earlier in this thread (and it was in a different thread). His NFL track record? Not really. He has one playoff win over the Connor Cook lead Raiders. I like Watson, but let’s be accurate.

It’s actually much closer than some folks think. Just look at their respective standard and advanced passing stats from 2019. It’ll surprise you. Oh, so are we awarding Super Bowl championships for college performance now? Good, let’s sign Tebow and we’ll finally have our Lombardi!!!!! It’s pretty close in adjusted sack rate: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019 Also, Allen and Watson have a similar scramble rate according to the advanced passing stats from PFR I posted yesterday

I was recently advised that one should not respond to stupidity. In light of this post, that seems like advice from which you could benefit.

How so?

Well here’s the data for all WR/TE on each of the 2 teams that are over 60% catch rate, though I don’t think it tells much: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StilKe00.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FellDa01.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HopkDe00.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FullWi01.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AkinJo00.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CoutKe00.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowJo02.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BeasCo00.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McKeIs00.htm Noteworthy observations include: - in Stills’ first year with Watson, he’s having the 2nd highest catch rate of his career - for both Nuk and Fuller, their major uptick in catch percentage correlated with Watson’s 2nd year as a starter - McKenzie and Smoke have seen a huge uptick in catch % this year in comparison to their previous career %. Beasley, OTOH, has his 3rd-lowest catch rate in 2019 (though that’s not exactly an outlier; he’s been up and down year to year)

Their glossary doesn’t make it clear

Another interesting fact to consider when comparing the two players: According to NextGen, Houston has 4 players (Fells, Nuk, Fuller, and Stills) that rank in the top 27 in catch percentage in the league. Buffalo does not have a player that ranks in the top 50. That might matter.

It was in the tweet that was posted. 2nd highest percentage of carries that went for 10+ yards. I would guess that less guys in the box would lead to more chunk rushes, but that’s educated guesswork on my part

By what metrics are they doing so? Have a look at this and let me know: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

I meant that to be in reference to the most carried of 10+ yards stat

Keep in mind that he also faced the fewest 8+ boxes in the NFL.

Young QBs that played at Wyoming for 2 years and were wholly unpolished coming into the league? Gotta head over to the “which QB” thread for more details...

Fun exercise for this thread: Head to PFR and check out their advanced passing stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm Compare Watson and Allen. Here’s what you’ll find: they’re very close in performance in most categories including on-target throw percentage, completed air yards per pass attempt, passing efficiency off PA, etc. Biggest differences are... - Allen suffers a much higher percentage of drops - Allen has a much greater percentage of bad throws - Allen is one standard deviation lower in pocket time - Watson has twice the number of pass attempts and thrice the rushing attempts off RPOs (but the efficiency is about the same for both)