thebandit27

I think Jefferson might end up a good one. Need to dig into his tape more

In case anyone wants to scout: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QbJONz-aRK6WCaSUH4sGS1wAjN_lkg1j7Mrtp1lGJxw/htmlview

I guess I look at value as much in terms of salary-on-the-open-market as I do in terms of contribution to any given team. As for the drafts, defensively they’ve been great. Offensively, Allen is trending well IMO, and Motor looks solid. The rest are more or less up in the air.

Yannick likes the left side IIRC, which puts him opposite Jerry. Also, if you pay him $17M AAV, he better not be a rotational guy. He had 3 more sacks than Trent The Whipping Boy, who only makes $7M AAV.

That’s also somewhat of a commonality around the league. Just taking a sampling of other young QBs: LAR went 3-4 when Goff was sub-60, and 6-3 when he was plus-60 Eagles went 3-3 with Wentz sub-60, and 6-4 above 60 Cowboys were 1-3 with Dak sub-60; 7-5 with him plus-60 It's common for a young QB—even a very good one, to have a few games sub-60. It’s hardly a death sentence...unless the QB is basically the only threat on his team, in which case said team might be overly reliant on him to not have such a game in order to win.

And as a rookie he was 3-5 in games where he started & finished and completed <60%. Perhaps how well the QB plays contributes to whether or not the team wins, but W-L isn’t directly correlated with completion percentage?

OR perhaps the definition that you’ve posted isn’t the way that they calculate it, since if you watch the video and apply just a bit of math, you can quite easily see where the 50.1 number comes from (hint: watch the Denver throw to Smoke again). See this is what I mean: if you’re actually looking for the answer as to why the definition and number don’t seem to line up, then you’d watch the videos analytically, not looking to justify some agenda. But you didn’t. You just picked them out in order to support a statement that you didn’t research and now are forced to defend because owning a mistake just isn’t your style.

Ah, so “the data guy is drunk”? I love it.

He is one of the all-time great play designers and play-callers in pro football. Ad a HC, he’s had sustained success and has developed some great athletes into all-pro QBs. A SB win puts him squarely in the HOF.

Then feel free to explain why the VERY SANE site lists his LCAY as 50.1. I’ll wait.

Math! Now do the rest of them and you’ll catch up to my first response ? Hmmm...typically when the DB plays inside leverage and the WR hasn’t stacked him at the time of the throw, the QB is taught to throw back shoulder, which is usually why the WR knows when to break off and make the adjustment—otherwise a speedy guy like Smoke would waaaay overrun the throw and it’d be an easy pick.

Ah the old fallback of making ? up; if nothing else you’re consistent ? I’ve watched the plays; that’s how I know the difference between air yards and LOS to LOC distance unlike you. Air yards measures the distance from the location of the throw to the location of the catch. See, a deeper drop back and a throw across the field will have a greater air distance than a shallow drop throw to the middle of the field—even if the LOS and LOC are the same; math!! The difference between you and I is that I call it like I see it. I criticize the parts of Allen’s game that warrant it, and I applaud parts that warrant it. I don’t have a compulsory need to be “right” one way or another. You do...and it’s obvious to literally everyone on the board. And with each and every exchange in which you go to massive extremes and throw a hissy fit, making accusations about how anyone that sees your agenda thinks that Allen is perfect, you slide further into a credibility deficit. Get it together man.

Argue with the NFL. I’ll bet you didn’t even click the link ?

Horse ?. We've reached the point where a back shoulder throw is now a bad throw because Josh Allen. Have a look at this, and then try to tell me that deep ball receptions are always great throws: Here: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing Argue with the NFL, not me. At what point will you admit that your agenda is clouding your ability to be intellectually honest?

As is typical with regard to Allen, you’re incorrect because you shoot from the hip and don’t bother to verify if what you’re saying is factual. Per NextGen, Allen’s longest completed air distance was 50.1 yards. For reference, Lamar Jackson’s was 51.5; Mahomes was 54.9. Furthermore, Allen’s average completed air yards per pass was 6.2; same as Mahomes. Last but not least, John Brown had 3 receptions of over 40 yards and and average YAC of 2.8, so I seriously doubt that he was getting his receiving yardage on those big plays from anything besides a deep throw. This isn’t Hill-over-Brees territory, but it’s an awful post.

I suppose Perriman could be a proverbial Hail Mary if they miss out on other WR1 options. I’m not a big Sharpe guy. Just doesn’t flash for me. We need a gets-open-early-and-reliably kinda guy.

I’ve long felt that Demarcus Robinson could be a tier-2 option at WR. When he gets targets he looks good

I don’t think they’d do it unless or until they scored a TE like Henry or Hooper.

He’s already a much more nuanced passer than he was even a year ago, but yes, I understand your point. If Cam can go from mid 50s to 67% over his last season-and-a-half, why can’t Allen? Is Allen less talented? He’s already increased his completion rate by 6 percentage points in a single season, and that’s with his targets dropping passes more frequently than any other group in the game. To dismiss its with a wave of the hand is too presumptuous IMO.

Well, obviously you need to spend wisely. $35M on a RB and ILB is silly IMO. That’s premium money at two non-premium positions. $35M for a WR1 and an EDGE guy is premium money for premium positions when you consider the salary hierarchy across the league.

Huh. So “never” was a bit of an exaggeration then. It certainly is a component of it, yeah. The thing I’ve always said about Cam is that the ball goes where it needs to go when it needs to go there. So far, that’s what Allen looks like as well. I am really hopeful that another offseason in the same system will slow the game down further for Josh. The big leap in his game will come when he doesn’t have to rush a throw because he made a (relatively) late decision or got around to his read later than he needed to. Last offseason I asked for Josh to do the following things in 2019: get more comfortable in the pocket, take more of what the defense gives him, and don’t rush throws. He accomplished about 2.5 of those 3. This offseason is all about immersing himself in the scheme and getting inside the heads of his skill position players. If he can do that, the passing game will be markedly better. Everything? I don’t agree with that at all.

Didn’t Cam go for 67% 2 seasons ago?

He is almost certainly going to get in; 2 Super Bowl MVPs in 2 high drama victories over a team lead by the best QB of a generation makes him a near lock. Whether it should be that way is another question imo

I also think Ford is an OG. And there’s no way I take a pro bowl OG over a WR1. Just look at the NFL salary landscape to see what’s more valuable. WR1 types are getting $20M/year. As for trusting Beane, well, his work on the defense has been excellent. The offense has a long way to go.

You would take a RT over a WR1? I do not agree.